Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:00AMSunset 9:16PM Saturday June 23, 2018 7:40 PM EDT (23:40 UTC) Moonrise 4:01PMMoonset 2:21AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;229447 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, MI
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location: 42.15, -84.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 231957
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
357 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Discussion
Convection within the convergent corridor along the periphery of the
surface circulation is waning as an open wave structure develops in
the lower troposphere in response to a more diffuse pattern of mid-
level forcing. Some level of activity will likely persist for the
next several hours within the remnant surface trough, particularly
as modest isentropic ascent increases ahead of the next upstream
wave presently lifting ene through illinois. Limited instability and
loss of heating will further limit intensity and coverage, but very
slow storm motion will still potentially produce locally heavy rain.

Strong nwp consensus on overall evolution tonight through Sunday as
the resident airmass remains in place for one more day. Diminished
moisture quality owing to developing dry northeast flow should be
more than offset by stronger forcing. Any remnant activity within
the aforementioned surface trough will tend to consolidate over the
thumb and possibly portions of northern lower as mid-level
deformation becomes increasingly well defined tonight through midday
Sunday. Substantial increase in pops warranted across the northern
counties for late tonight into Sunday. Incoming confluent flow in
the wake of this wave will then quickly usher the developing frontal
zone across the area during the afternoon, leading to a transient
shower threat worth an increase in pops to the high chc low likely
range. Steady onshore marine winds may also cause low end lakeshore
flood concerns INVOF essexville in bay county by Sunday aftn.

Building high pressure and 850mb temps around 11c may allow
temperatures to approach the upper 70s under full sun, but cirrus
peeling off a wave undercutting the ridge will be worth watching as
it may suppress temps a few degrees.

Upper-level troughing and an embedded PV anomaly will push from
southern minnesota into northern lower michigan and will bring
likely rain and thunderstorm chances to SE mi both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Increased southwesterly flow will continue to advect warm
and moist air ahead and during the passage of the PV anomaly, as
noted by 850 mb dew points ranging between 10 - 15c and pw values
averaging 1.60 inches.

The PV anomaly and upper-level trough will push east out of michigan
by 06 - 12z Thursday and will bring a period of dry conditions as a
surface high and upper-level ridge builds across the state. High
pressure centered across the eastern ohio valley will allow for
strong WAA to take place towards the end of the week as 850 mb
temperatures soar from 13c Thu 12z up to near 23c by Sat 00z. For
reference, record SPC climatological 850 mb temperatures reside
around 20 - 22 c. Daytime highs in the lower 90s are now reflected
in Friday and Saturday's forecast, however, a bump into the mid-90s
may be necessary over the next day if models continue to suggest 850
temperatures between 21 - 23 c in conjunction with minimal cloud
cover. Overall, confidence is very high in regards to above normal
temperatures by the end of the week.

Marine
Broad and weak low pressure will slowly exit the central great lakes
tonight into tomorrow. Light and variable winds this afternoon into
tonight will become light north northeasterly flow less than 20
knots in the wake of the departing low pressure on Sunday. Still
a chance for showers during the first part of Sunday before dry
weather returns Monday as high pressure returns to the great lakes
region. A warm front lifting through the area will lead to chance
for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday, with increasing southeast
winds.

Hydrology
Showers will redevelop tonight, especially along and north of i-69,
continuing into early Sunday afternoon. Total rainfall amounts will
generally be a half an inch or less. Although locally higher amounts
will be possible, flooding is not expected. Drier air will work into
the region late Sunday and into Monday as high pressure builds
across michigan.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1230 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018
aviation...

circulation over wayne county this morning producing numerous
showers is exiting east early this afternoon. However, trailing low
level convergence will still offer up opportunity for scattered
showers slight chance of a thunderstorm. Diurnal surface heating
lifting CIGS into high MVFR lowVFR late this afternoon
outside of any showers. In addition, with the low level convergence
axis tending to shift north this evening, there is opportunity for
yip dtw to dry out even more with light westerly wind developing,
and going to carry optimisticVFR conditions for most of the
evening, with MVFR high ifr CIGS for northern tafs.

However, it is only a matter of time before low clouds sweep back
south, and certainly possible for period of ifr CIGS by sunrise,
with renewed shower development tracking through late
tonight tomorrow morning before final push of dry air and winds
shift to the north-northeast Sunday afternoon.

For dtw... Still very low chance of a thunderstorm developing this
afternoon, with another chance late tomorrow morning early tomorrow
afternoon. Confidence inVFR conditations this evening is average at
best, and MVFR or even ifr CIGS could re-develop sooner than
currently projected.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less through entire period.

* low for thunderstorms this afternoon and late tomorrow morning
early tomorrow afternoon.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Jvc am
marine... ... .Sf
hydrology... .Sf
aviation... ..Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 43 mi40 min W 9.9 G 14 77°F 1006.4 hPa (+0.0)65°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 65 mi40 min S 5.1 G 9.9 75°F 1006.1 hPa (+0.7)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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E7
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G20
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G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi47 minW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F66°F72%1005.7 hPa
Adrian, Lenawee County Airport, MI19 mi47 minW 910.00 miOvercast75°F64°F69%1006.8 hPa

Wind History from ARB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10
G16
NE8NE8NE7NE4CalmNE4NE4NE3NE5CalmN3N5N6N4CalmW6W9NW9W7CalmW7W10W9
1 day agoE6NE8NE8NE9NE7N8NE6NE7NE5NE7NE6NE8NE7NE8NE6E9NE10NE7NE11NE8
G15
NE9NE5NE10NE6
2 days agoN5N3SE5S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE5--------NE8E10
G18
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G17
E10E10
G16
E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.