Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:07PM Thursday December 13, 2018 3:33 AM EST (08:33 UTC) Moonrise 12:19PMMoonset 11:02PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;229447 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, MI
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location: 42.15, -84.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 130512
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1212 am est Thu dec 13 2018

Aviation
Late evening surface observations indicated borderline ifr MVFR
mainly in the fnt to mbs area closer to the surface trough axis. At
the same time, satellite imagery showed breaks in MVFR clouds over
sw lower michigan that have potential to expand eastward mainly
south of fnt. This occurs as the surface trough fills and as weak
but larger scale high pressure takes over during the night. Breaks
in the clouds then open up fog potential as temp dewpt spread is
already within a couple of degrees and radiational cooling drops
temperatures into the upper 20s. Pontiac and the dtw corridor have
the best chance of ifr possibly approaching lifr toward sunrise.

Steady improvement intoVFR follows during Thursday morning and
afternoon with high pressure ensuring dry conditions and light
backing surface wind. Another round of MVFR clouds is then projected
to be on the doorstep of the ohio border Thursday evening.

For dtw... MVFR in a mix of clouds and fog have potential to lower
into ifr around sunrise and then improve toVFR by late morning.

High pressure then ensures dry conditions and a light backing
surface wind through afternoon. MVFR clouds are projected near the
ohio border moving northward Thursday evening.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceiling below 5000 ft tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 935 pm est Wed dec 12 2018
update...

a quick update to confirm precipitation timing and temperature
trends as a wave of low pressure continues through lower michigan
tonight. Impressive mid evening radar signatures are a result of
briefly higher precipitation rate and bright banding around the
melting layer close to the ground. Enough wet-bulb cooling occurred
for a quick transition to snow over the higher terrain areas west and
north of metro detroit, although with relatively high visibility and
mainly grassy accumulation as surface temperatures lingered above
freezing. Mid to late evening has the upper level circulation
carrying the rain snow mix eastward and exiting SE michigan shortly
after midnight. Temperature trends then become a primary aspect of
the forecast overnight through Thursday morning. Road surfaces start
out wet in many locations and could become icy as temperatures drop
below freezing and bottom out in the upper 20s most locations by
sunrise. Little to no surface cold advection is noted trailing the
low pressure system, however some breaks in the low level clouds are
possible as the surface trough fills in favor of weak but larger
scale high pressure. Minimal mid and high cloud coverage sets up some
extra radiational cooling through any breaks in the low clouds
during the night before temperatures rebound through the morning.

Prev discussion...

issued at 328 pm est Wed dec 12 2018
discussion...

compact mid level wave continues to be the focus of the short term
focus as it tracks across lower mi this evening into tonight.

Notable trends in newest guidance toward features seen in satellite
imagery giving higher confidence to the forecast heading through the
overnight.

Both the mid level wave and the surface reflection have reached
maturity and have begun to fill in this afternoon as they near
southern lake mi as streamlines show the wind directed right into
the center of the low. The surface low will quickly shear out
through the evening due a combination of height falls to the west
causing the low to stall or back build, and a piece of the existing
low continuing to push east. A jet MAX moving due east just south of
the state line has cut off any potential moisture from the south to
wrap up into the system as it reaches southern mi. This will leave
the dry system with the meager amount of moisture it has, and
whatever it can pick up from lake mi which shouldn't be too much as
delta t over the water is not favorable, and becoming more stable.

Where does this leave SE mi? Agree with the latest hires models in
pushing the deformation band farther north into central mi, clipping
portions of midland and bay counties and the thumb. Lower pops
throughout the rest of lower mi dry slot surged up presenting peaks
of sunshine this afternoon south of m59. This will increase low
level instability as the mid level low center and cool pool passes
across southern mi this evening into tonight. Look for an area of
cellular showers to develop and work east across the area between 00-
06z and mainly between the i69 and i94 corridors. This remains a
higher pop lower QPF event with any location only receiving precip
for a few hours. With warmer temps in the area due to sunshine,
looks like rain possibly mixed with snow later tonight and
especially farther north with less than a half inch of snow
accumulation possible. Drizzle remains possible on the backside of
the system for a couple hours but soundings dry out pretty quickly
by Thursday morning in both the low levels and aloft.

Shortwave ridge will slide through Thursday leading to what looks
like a dry day with a very low inversion locking in residual low
level moisture into a stratus deck. Some indications of drizzle
possible Thursday afternoon but depth of moisture looks pretty
shallow so will leave out of the forecast at the moment.

The next opportunity for precipitation will come Thursday night into
Friday as a strong southern stream system tracking along the gulf
coast states, releases a PV filament northward into southern mi with
a plume of deeper moisture as seen in the theta E field. This
moisture and forcing will interact with a northern stream trough
edging into southern mi. The nose of the precip will need attention
as we move forward as there is an opportunity for a short period of
freezing rain as the moisture moves over a cold surface airmass with
temps below freezing. Temps will quickly rise as precip rates
increase which will lead to a pure rain event. At this point three
days out will just mention the possibility in the afd.

With the exception of the tail-end of the latest nam, long-range
models are now in fairly good agreement regarding track of an upper-
level low that is projected to move east-northeast from louisiana
into the carolinas Friday afternoon into Sunday morning, holding
precipitation south of michigan into the ohio valley and across the
east coast. A ridge of high pressure is expected to build across the
great lakes throughout Saturday, providing dry weather as
temperatures hold in the lower 40s for a daytime high.

The remainder of the extended period (Sunday into Wednesday) will be
characterized by continued dry conditions as a second broad high
pressure system builds across the plains into the ohio valley,
increasing subsidence and providing the chance to see periods of
sunshine. Models are now in slightly better agreement regarding the
passage of a cold frontal boundary that will move across michigan
Monday into Tuesday morning. Temperatures will respond by taking
highs from the lower 40s into the mid to upper-30s by Monday and or
Tuesday, contingent on the timing of the cold front. Lake effect
snow showers may also be possible behind the front, mainly across
the thumb and communities along the lake huron shoreline, as low
level flow veers from the west to northwest. Daytime highs in the
30s on Monday and or Tuesday are expected to be short-lived, as a
warm front builds into michigan Tuesday into Wednesday, returning
highs into the 40s by Wednesday afternoon.

Overall, slightly above normal temperatures and relatively dry
conditions are expected this weekend through next week.

Marine...

small craft advisories will continue into tonight due to elevated
waves from moderate southeasterly flow of 20 to 25 knots in advance
of approaching low pressure. This system will bring a mix of light
rain and snow tonight. Winds will veer to the southwest as this low
passes east by Thursday. Wind speeds will weaken though as the low
is expected to weaken and dissipate. A ridge of high pressure will
then bring variable wind, both in terms of direction and speed, into
Friday. Wind gusts will remain generally 20 knots or less during
this time frame.

Gusty northeast flow will then become possible Friday night into
Saturday as the next low pressure system passes south of the region.

This will be especially true for lake erie where the pressure
gradient along the northern periphery of this low will be strongest.

Winds weaken late in the weekend as this low continues to the east
coast with the next period of gusty conditions coming late Sunday
night into Monday as a passing cold front brings a period of strong
northwesterly flow over lake huron.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 4 am est early this morning for lhz421-
441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
update... ... .Bt
discussion... Drk am
marine... ... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 43 mi39 min WNW 5.1 G 7 36°F 1016.1 hPa29°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 65 mi93 min SSW 1 G 1.9 35°F 1015.2 hPa (+1.7)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi40 minWNW 68.00 miOvercast34°F30°F89%1016.4 hPa
Adrian, Lenawee County Airport, MI19 mi40 minNNW 410.00 miA Few Clouds32°F28°F85%1017.1 hPa

Wind History from ARB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmE4SE5E6E4E8E6E9E10E7S9
G15
E8SE5SE6SE4S3S3CalmCalmSW3W5W5NW6
1 day agoS9S9S10S8S12S8S8SW15SW11
G19
SW9SW9W9W8W7W6W4W5SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNW6W7W5W8NW3NW4CalmW6CalmSW3CalmS5S4S5S5S6S8S7S8S8S7S10S9S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.