Tuesday, September18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Manchester, MI

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Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 7:41PM Tuesday September 18, 2018 5:19 PM EDT (21:19 UTC) Moonrise 3:17PMMoonset 12:04AM Illumination 64% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ444 Michigan Waters Of Lake Erie From Detroit River To North Cape Mi- 1002 Pm Edt Sat Jul 22 2017
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the north early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy early in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late morning and afternoon. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the west in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves around 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves around 2 feet or less. SEe lake erie open lake forecast for days 3 through 5. The water temperature at belle isle is 77.4 degrees.
LEZ444 Expires:201707230900;;677433 FZUS63 KDTX 230203 GLFSC GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 PM EDT Sat Jul 22 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad area of low pressure...29.70 inches...will slowly track across Lower Michigan through Sunday. The system will exit to the east Sunday night, pulling a cold front through the central Great Lakes late Sunday and Sunday night. High pressure...30.20 inches...then builds into the area Monday and Tuesday. LEZ444-230900-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Manchester, MI
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location: 42.15, -84.03     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 181948
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
348 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018

Discussion
Zonal flow across the CONUS will continue into Wednesday as the next
storm system moves ashore the pacific coast. The deepening trough
will act to strengthen the ridge sprawled across the southern
states, leading to increasing heights over mi on Wednesday. Lee
cyclogenesis ahead of the trough will result in a large surface low
which will be the cause of potential showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the week.

Chances of storms this afternoon will be contained to the far south
as a weakening cold front drops through lower mi. Surface flow is
weak and the cap shown by model soundings this morning seems to be
holding thus far as even the CU field was slow to build today. Some
isolated cells have developed over SW lower which are tracking SE in
the northwesterly flow around the southern ridge. Convectively
induced shortwave upstream will track across the area tonight but
hires continues to show little activity over SE mi.

With the cold front stalling south of the state, and the shortwave
exiting the region by morning, it appears that most of Wednesday
will turn out to be dry. We remain in northwesterly flow with
building mid level heights and the jet forced north over lake
superior. Cooler air and northerly winds behind the front will keep
the area briefly lowered in the 70s. Left some low pops across the
far NW as elevated frontal activity may brush mid mi.

Best chance of precipitation will come Wednesday night into Thursday
morning as low pressure gathering over the foothills starts to
release across the plains. The stall front to our south will lift
back north as a warm front. Flow returns to southwesterly advecting
plume of moisture back into the state as low level jet ramps up.

Increasing fgen, moisture advection, and shortwave energy should
produce an e-w band of showers across lower mi that will lift
northward. Question is how far north does it set up? Went with
likely pops across the north and chance farther south at the moment.

Good CAPE around 500 j kg and adequate shear around 30 knots will
make severe weather a possibility along the warm front.

The low will lift through northern mi late Thursday and Thursday
night pull the front north leaving us solidly in the warm sector.

Precip chances will decrease through the afternoon and evening as
conditions become less favorable deeper in the warm sector. After
temperatures briefly cool off Wednesday, strong WAA will allow them
to spike once again into the mid upper 80s.

Vigorous upper level trough moving into the western great lakes on
Friday with deepening low pressure tracking through northeastern
ontario early Friday morning, driving cold front through southeast
michigan. The front looks to clear the state around 18z Friday.

Timing will be critical to severe chances, as the 12z euro
indicating mlcapes of 500-1000 j kg. Very strong wind field will
present a wind threat, even with the early afternoon timing, as 850
mb knots of 50 knots are present. Even without convection along the
front, post frontal cold advection wind pop will significant, and
wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph late in the day appear likely.

Expansive high pressure will follow for the weekend, providing
pleasant and dry weather, along with slightly below normal
temperatures. The dry air and surface ridge is expected to hold on
Monday, but the 500 mb low coming out of the southern plains will
lift north and have to be watched, potentially sending a warm front
and showers into southern great lakes (see 12z euro). Timing and
interaction with the digging upper level trough over the rockies
remains uncertain this far out.

Marine
A weak cold front moved through lake huron during the day with
little impact outside of light enhancement of northerly wind. The
front will settle south of lake erie tonight and stall there through
Wednesday leaving light easterly wind over all marine areas.

Favorable conditions begin to worsen Wednesday night into Thursday
as the stalled front moves northward and as thunderstorm activity
increases considerably. An increasing wind component also occurs as
low pressure organizes over the plains states and strengthens over
the northern great lakes. Much warmer air surging northward across
lower michigan and lake huron increases stability as a limiting
factor for wind over the lake but southwest gusts near 30 knots
still look reachable Thursday night into Friday just on the strength
of gradient flow.

Once the low crosses the northern great lakes and continues into
ontario early Friday morning, it pulls the associated cold front
through the central great lakes. The front will bring a SW to nw
wind shift with considerably colder air reversing the thermal
profile to an unstable configuration. The strength of the low could
support a wind field capable of gusts to near gale force over the
open waters of lake huron Friday into Friday night. High pressure
then brings more tranquil conditions during the weekend.

Hydrology
Showers and thunderstorms will become more active Wednesday night
and Thursday with locally heavy rainfall possible. This occurs as
the cold front, moving southward through the area today, moves back
north as a warm front and increases strength while low pressure
approaches from the midwest. The warmer and more humid air moving in
with the front supplies enough moisture for rainfall totals
averaging 0.25 to 0.5 inch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
morning. Totals at the higher end of the range are more likely
across the tri cities and northern thumb where localized rainfall
near 1 inch will also be possible. The potential for flooding is
minimal with this activity, limited to ponding of water on roads and
minor flooding of poor drainage areas.

Prev discussion
Issued at 107 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018
aviation...

a weak cold front settling through southern lower michigan is the
focus of aviation conditions for the rest of today through
Wednesday, first for shower storm potential and then for clouds. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible along and south of
the boundary during peak heating today, however the late afternoon
to early evening timing places the target area mainly south of the
terminal locations and then with a SE motion away from the area.

Temperature north of the front is cooler but still on the humid side
which supported MVFR stratus in the mbs area and points northward
into the afternoon. This boundary layer moisture will be augmented
by light north to northeast wind off lake huron through tonight, a
combination that likely results in MVFR stratus reforming during the
night and then continuing through Wednesday morning. The front
stalling near ohio border could support stratus development over the
dtw corridor as well. Using today as a guide, MVFR ceiling is
expected to hold through Wednesday morning and then mix or lift into
vfr during the afternoon.

For dtw... Light SW wind shifts to light NE during the evening
traffic push but with speed only around 5 knots which could allow
continuation SW traffic flow operations. A mix of lowerVFR MVFR
ceiling is then expected overnight through Wednesday morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceiling 5000 ft or less overnight through Wednesday
morning.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Drk sf
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Bt
aviation... ..Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 43 mi37 min WNW 9.9 G 14 88°F 1011.4 hPa64°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 65 mi19 min NE 4.1 G 6 77°F 1012.2 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi26 minW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds85°F66°F55%1011.3 hPa
Adrian, Lenawee County Airport, MI19 mi26 minN 810.00 miA Few Clouds84°F63°F49%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from ARB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4SE3SE6CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSW3SW3W3CalmSW3SW4CalmCalmCalm4W4W10
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1 day agoE6E6E4E4E3CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmE4N4E7N5E43
2 days agoE8E7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE4N3N4N4NE3N3CalmN3NE3NE7E9E7SE9E8E9E9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.