Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wyandotte, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 6:14PM Friday February 22, 2019 11:55 AM EST (16:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:07PMMoonset 9:21AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0040.000000t0000z-181006t2345z/ 710 Pm Edt Sat Oct 6 2018
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4216 8321 4218 8313 4213 8312 4205 8315 4202 8314 4198 8315 4197 8318 4196 8328 time...mot...loc 2308z 250deg 36kt 4214 8305
LCZ423 Expires:201810062320;;348663 FZUS73 KDTX 062310 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 710 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2018 LCZ423-LEZ444-062320-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wyandotte, MI
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location: 42.18, -83.14     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 221021
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
521 am est Fri feb 22 2019

Aviation
Vfr conditions will prevail through this TAF period with a high
pressure passing over the great lakes. Light northerly winds will
veer to the e-se by this afternoon and remain less than 10 knots.

Expect dry weather conditions through today. No cloud concerns
during the afternoon as the few-sct mid high clouds eventually increase
in coverage later in the day.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none

Prev discussion
Issued at 324 am est Fri feb 22 2019
discussion...

sfc high pressure will track across lower mi today before traversing
the eastern lakes this evening. The sfc high will precede a broad
mid level ridge axis which will expand into lower mi later today
into tonight. Aside from some occasional mid high level clouds
(particularly during the first half of the day), daytime insolation
and some weak low level warm air advection within the return flow of
the departing sfc high will boost afternoon highs to the mid 30s to
near 40. There will be at least some opportunity for decent
radiational cooling early tonight (supportive of lows in the
upper teens to mid 20s) before mid high level clouds increase late.

The upper wave now churning over SRN california is forecast to
advance across the southern rockies tonight before lifting into ern
kansas Saturday afternoon. This system is forecast to undergo some
phasing with the strong subtropical jet as it emerges in the lee of
the southern rockies. The result is a rapid deepening as it lifts to
the northeast on Saturday. The wave is forecast to remain highly
compact as it rotates into wisconsin Sat night and upper mi sun
morning. Overall, the gfs, ECMWF and canadian have been fairly
consistent the last several runs in showing a rapid deepening of the
sfc low as it lifts from kansas Saturday to cntl or ERN upper mi
Sunday morning (from 992 mb to around 979 mb), with further
deepening (possibly to 972 mb) as it lifts to northern quebec
Sunday. The NAM solution is a bit faster and weaker. Given the
continuity at this point, the slower deeper solutions will be
preferred.

As this system intensifies as it lifts toward the WRN great lakes on
Saturday, a broad region of moist isentropic ascent will overspread
se mi during the afternoon and evening. Given that the ascent does
not really arrive until afternoon evening, diurnal heating and
persistent low level warm air advection should support mostly rain
as the precip type. During the course of the evening, the better
deep layer moisture transport is forecast across ohio into the ern
great lakes. However, the persistent ascent with the mid level
branch of the warm conveyor will still support widespread light rain
across SE mi Sat night. Despite a narrow region of weak elevated
convective instability Sat night (showalter 0 to -1), strong ascent
due to very large mid level height falls associated with the
deepening wave will likely produce a short period of decent
convection (elevated thunderstorms) Sat night before the mid level
dry slot takes hold by Sun morning.

Given the deep and compact nature of this system, there will be a
strong low level wind field associated with it. 2-4k ft level winds
are forecast to range from 50 to 60 knots from overnight Saturday
through the day Sunday. Model soundings and isentropic cross
sectional analysis suggests that downward momentum transport into
the boundary layer with the sfc occlusion Sat night may not be
efficient enough in producing strong winds. Better large scale
descent is expected to arrive later Sunday morning, with a deepening
mixed layer through low level cold air advection and diurnal
processes also supporting an increase in the sfc winds through
Sunday afternoon. There remains a high probability that widespread
wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph will be prevalent through the daylight
hours on Sunday, with at least a chance for gusts to reach 60 mph.

This will likely prompt the issuance of some type of wind headlines
over the next couple forecast cycles.

Deep wrap around moisture will support some rain showers
transitioning to snow showers as the column cools on Sunday. Several
solutions lift the deep layer moisture north of the forecast area
fairly quickly Sun afternoon. So a bit of uncertainty at this time
as to whether any type of organized snow showers can be established
before moisture strips away.

The low level flow will transition toward more zonal early next
week. There is a fair amount of model disagreement at this stage as
to whether or not the low level baroclinic zone will become
established across the southern great lakes or farther to the south,
affecting precip chances by the middle of next week.

Marine...

passing high pressure today will bring quiet marine conditions
before a rapidly deepening low pressure system lifts out of the
plains on Saturday into the straits of mackinac by Sunday afternoon
and eventually ontario quebec Sunday night. Winds begin picking up
out of the southeast with gusts of 25-30 knots late Saturday night.

Winds then begin veering to the southwest and eventually to the west
by Sunday afternoon as sustained winds reach weak to moderate gales
over marine zones. Wind gusts into Sunday evening across central and
northern lake huron will increase to storm force with strong gales
for the remaining marine zones. Storm watches and gale watches are
now in effect starting Sunday morning and continuing into Monday
morning. Though winds are the main focus this weekend, thunderstorms
will be possible on Saturday affecting at least western lake erie to
southern lake huron.

Hydrology...

strong southerly flow in advance of the strong winter storm system
lifting through the area will pump a warm and moist airmass into the
state. Widespread rain is expected to impact southeast michigan late
Saturday through Sunday night with thunderstorms possible Sunday
night. Total rainfall amounts in excess of 0.25 inch will be
possible, higher amounts for those areas impacted by thunderstorm
activity. A push of warm air Saturday into Saturday night will
likely melt the snow on the ground. While this and the rainfall will
lead to some runoff, the liquid content in the snowpack and rainfall
amounts expected should be insufficient to cause flooding concerns.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
lhz462>464.

Gale watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for lhz421-
422-441>443.

Storm watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
lhz361>363.

Lake st clair... Gale watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Gale watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for lez444.

Aviation... ..Aa
discussion... Sc
marine... ... .Sc
hydrology... .Aa
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 24 mi55 min NE 1.9 G 2.9 29°F 1032.5 hPa (+1.3)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 25 mi55 min NE 5.1 G 6 31°F
TWCO1 34 mi35 min ENE 7 G 9.9 31°F 1028.8 hPa23°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 38 mi55 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 29°F 1031.9 hPa (+1.2)21°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 41 mi55 min E 2.9 G 5.1 31°F 1032.4 hPa (+1.0)
AGCM4 45 mi55 min 33°F 32°F1031.2 hPa (+1.1)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 49 mi55 min ENE 8 G 8.9 30°F 33°F1032 hPa (+1.0)24°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI6 mi60 minNE 410.00 miFair32°F21°F66%1031.8 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI11 mi62 minNE 56.00 miPartly Cloudy with Haze33°F19°F56%1032.4 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI18 mi62 minESE 59.00 miFair32°F19°F61%1032.8 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI21 mi62 minN 09.00 miFair34°F19°F56%1032.1 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI23 mi59 minESE 310.00 miFair33°F21°F63%1031.5 hPa

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13
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W9W11
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W5--CalmW3W5NW5NW5N3N3N4N4N4N6N3CalmNE6NE5NE3
1 day agoE9E8E8E10
G14
E7E8E4SE5S6S5SW9
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2 days agoCalmW6S6S6S5S6SE3E3CalmNE4NE4E4E3E3E4E8NE9E7E7E7E9
G18
NE10E6E8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.