Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lakeview, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 5:46PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 1:49 PM PST (21:49 UTC) Moonrise 7:16PMMoonset 7:48AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeview, OR
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location: 42.19, -120.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 201825
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1025 am pst Wed feb 20 2019

Updated aviation discussion
Short term The main band of precipitation has shifted east.

Overnight, accumulating snow was observed down to 1500 feet
elevation in douglas and josephine counties, including across
lower passes like camas mountain, canyon mountain and sexton pass
and hayes hill. In jackson county, snow accumulations where
greatest above 2000 feet especially along western foothills of the
cascades including near butte falls and prospect as well as near
jacksonville hill. Light slushy snow amounts were also observed in
other areas including near ashland and eagle point. Across the
cascades, siskiyous and into eastern areas over northern klamath,
moderate to heavy snow was observed overnight. Areas of light to
moderate snow extended into other eastern areas and into siskiyou
county as well.

With a cold showery air mass now in place, expect a mix of light
to moderate showers today. Snow levels for accumulating snow are
expected to be mainly near 2000 feet or slightly higher during the
day, lowering to 1500 feet this evening. Note, during the day,
may see some rain snow mix or graupel below 2000 feet in isolated
heavier showers. With the lower snow levels and ongoing showers,
have continued advisories across the area. Also with the chance to
showery pattern and less risk for heavy snow, have changed the
warning in the cascades to an advisory. The best chance for snow
accumulations on lower valley floors and lower passes down to 1500
feet will be in the evening, especially in areas favored by
northwest upslope flow such as the southern rogue valley from
phoenix to ashland, areas along the umpqua divide south of
canyonville and the western cascade foothills in southern oregon.

Locations in western siskiyou, over the cascades and areas in
klamath county are also favored for showers this evening.

A light dusting of snow is possible over some lower valley
locations tonight as snow levels continue to lower down to around
1000 feet. However given that showers will be decreasing during
this time period, expect this to be spotty.

A few light showers may linger into Thursday, especially over the
mountains such as the siskiyous, portions of the cascades and into
the hart and warner mountains. However, expect little or no
accumulation in snow showers. Temperatures will start out cold
across the area though with low temperatures in the 20s for most
western valleys and in the lower teens in eastern valleys.

Aviation For the 20 18z tafs... West of the cascades
(including koth, krbg, and kmfr)... Areas of MVFR CIGS vsbys in low
clouds, rain, and rain showers will persist into tonight with higher
terrain obscured. Snow levels will be 1500 to 2000 feet today,
dropping to 1000 to 1500 feet late tonight as the showers diminish.

Areas of ifr, especially north of the umpqua divide near roseburg,
will probably lower to ifr early Thursday morning. From the cascades
east (including klmt)... A mix ofVFR and MVFR conditions with
highest terrain obscured, will persist into the afternoon, but
occasional snow showers are expected this afternoon. Any snow
showers will diminish overnight with most valleys becomingVFR but
mountain obscuration persisting, especially on northeast facing
slopes. Keene

Marine Updated 830 am pst Wednesday 20 february 2019... A front
moved through the area last night. This will bring very steep and
hazardous seas for most areas. The seas will be a combination of
wind driven short period waves, fresh northwest swell, and longer
period northwest swell. Winds and seas will subside late Thursday
but more so Friday as high pressure moves through. There will
probably be a period of small craft advisory conditions Thursday
afternoon and evening south of CAPE blanco before conditions improve
there. A weak front will move in Friday afternoon into Friday night.

Northwest swell will build behind it Saturday into Saturday night,
and seas may become steep. Details on timing and strength of this
front and the following swell are still uncertain.

Prev discussion issued 409 am pst Wed feb 20 2019
discussion... This frontal boundary has come in somewhat
differently than one would expect a traditional front to behave in
the pacific northwest. Radar and satellite imagery are showing a
more showery nature to the precipitation. This could end up
changing the nature of the snowfall amounts and where the heaviest
snows will occur. Right now, snow levels are generally hovering
between 1500 and 2000 feet. The low elevation passes between
grants pass and roseburg are indicating some periods of heavy snow
per odot and caltrans websites, although it is a bit difficult to
see via the web cameras. Meanwhile, siskiyou summit appears quiet
(this will change as showers move across it). Along and east of
the cascades, however, is a much different story as web cameras
are showing periods of heavy snow, likely orographically enhanced.

This snow is impacting highway 97, and likely impacting the
klamath falls airport. Overall, the main band of heavy
precipitation which we expected to occur over the cascades appears
to have shifted eastward into eastern oregon in association with
the strong winds aloft.

Regardless, rain and showers will continue throughout the day
today, with periods of moderate to heavy snow occurring in any
particular shower. Before the Sun rises, it would not surprise me
to see a particularly heavy shower bring snow to the valley
floors. With daytime heating, expect to see most of the impacts
occur above 2000 feet. Winter headlines (a winter storm warning
for the cascades, and a winter weather advisory for most other
places above 1500 feet) exist until 10 pm tonight. Please see the
wswmfr for more details including amounts.

Additionally, a few showers today could bring graupel (small hail)
to the valley floors, and maybe across highway 101. The shower
pattern will continue through tonight as cold air penetrates back
into the area causing snow levels to crash back to the valley
floors. The showers will come to an end very early tomorrow
morning, but a dusting of snow could be possible in medford.

Then, a relative break is expected Thursday with generally cold
air. Temperatures will be frigid for many areas east of the
cascades with temperatures in the single digits or even below zero
fahrenheit, and freeze headlines may be needed once again for the
coast for Thursday night into Friday morning.

Another system appears destined for our area again this weekend,
with periods of moderate rain with mountain snows. Snow levels may
be higher as this system appears to have a bit of an atmospheric
river signature, but another low pressure system is dipping south
from british columbia, and it looks to be combining with the
excess moisture. Our snow levels will start off rather low once
again, but may raise to be around 2500 to 3000 feet this weekend.

Thus higher passes like lake of the woods, and siskiyou summit may
see some impactful snow. That being said, this system is still
days away, and snow levels could easily change to where the low
passes become affected as well. Thus, it would be prudent to stay
tuned to the forecast.

Another relatively brief break is expected in the extended portion
of the forecast, but models are indicating yet another system to
reach our area by late next week. -schaaf

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for
orz029>031.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 1500
feet in the for orz024-026.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening for
orz025-027-028.

Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 1500
feet in the for orz023.

Ca... Winter weather advisory until 10 pm pst this evening above 2000
feet in the for caz080-081.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas
until 10 am pst Thursday for pzz356. Hazardous seas
warning until 10 am pst Thursday for pzz350-356-370-376.

Cc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Lake County Airport, OR3 mi57 minW 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy31°F17°F56%1008.7 hPa

Wind History from LKV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S11S10S13
G18
S11S10SE8S8S9W9S4S5SE7S9S13
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SW6W11W8W7W10W5W11W10
1 day agoN11N10N11N12N6NW7N6NW7NW7N8NW5N4N6NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3SE6SE54
2 days agoN12N11N12N10N8N6NW10CalmNW4NW5W6N7N5N7N4N6N8N5N10N10N13N9N11N11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.