Monday, May29, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Lakeview, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:35PM Sunday May 28, 2017 10:40 PM PDT (05:40 UTC) Moonrise 7:38AMMoonset 10:34PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lakeview, OR
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location: 42.19, -120.35     debug

Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 290300
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
800 pm pdt Sun may 28 2017

Discussion 29 00z NAM in.

Mostly clear skies prevail across the medford CWA with the exception
of the coast and the adjacent coastal waters... Where low marine
stratus dominates. There is also some cumulus over the ridges.

The stratus will again progress inland tonight into Monday
morning... Covering most of the umpqua basin in the late night to
mid-morning hours. The marine inversion may be high enough to
allow some stratus to make it into the rogue valley late
tonight... But it will have to rise significantly for that to

The clear skies over most of the area come courtesy of a strong
long wave ridge that is now breaking to the east of the area.

Dry northerly flow aloft is now shifting to the south.

As the long wave ridge axis breaks to the east of the area, the
flow aloft will become southerly and this will open the door to
monsoonal moisture advecting into the area. This allowed some
cumulus to pop over the ridges this afternoon and evening...

especially over northern klamath and northwest lake counties... But
overall it was too dry to get any thunderstorms going.

Southerly flow aloft will gradually increase into Monday, and
conditions will become much more favorable for thunderstorm
development. Difluence aloft, increasing 700 mb south to
southeast flow (10-15 kts) due to an approaching slightly
negatively tilted upper level trough, increasing moisture (pws
increasing to 0.60 to just over 1.00 inches), and increasing
instability (850 mb lis of -4 to -8) will combine to support
showers and thunderstorms across much of the area. The most
favorable area for thunderstorms will straddle the cascades.

Conditions will become less favorable going east and west from the
cascade crest, but they remain a possibility over most of the
inland areas from northwest lake county and western modoc county
to the coast range, with the exception of the lower umpqua basin.

One or two of these storms could become severe. However,
precipitation totals will be light for the most part.

As far as temperatures go... Monday highs will be a few degrees
cooler over the west side... And about the same as the Sunday
highs over the east side and northern california. That comes out
to 5 to 10 degrees below normal along the coast... Around 5 degrees
above normal in the umpqua basin due to morning marine layer
clouds... 10 to 15 degrees above normal over the rest of the oregon
west side... And around 15 degrees above normal over the east side
and northern california.

A short wave ejected from an offshore long wave trough and an
associated cold front will move through the area Tuesday. This
will bring in much cooler air and a slight chance to chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Unlike Monday, a most of the
precipitation will come from showers rather than thunderstorms.

The highest instability will initially be in northern klamath and
lake counties... Spreading south and east late in the day. Once
again, amounts will be light for the most part. Tuesday highs will
be similar to the Monday highs along the coast... But around 10-15
degrees cooler over the inland oregon west side and 5-10 degrees
cooler east of the cascades and over northern california.

The showery regime will continue into Wednesday... But the CWA will
be between short waves most of the day so it will not be as
unstable as Tuesday. Therefore expect less shower coverage and
even lower precipitation amounts from those showers. Temperatures
will be a bit warmer on the west side but quite a bit cooler on
the east side... As the front will have finally made its way
through there by that time. Highs will be just below normal along
the coast... Around 5 degrees above normal over the west side... And
near normal over most of the east side and northern california.

Extended discussion from the Sunday afternoon afd... Thursday
through Sunday. Thursday starts with weak instability over the far
east side. However, this is at 12z and there is no strong vort or
upper level forcing and with the instability moving east before
there is any good surface heating have left any mention of
thunderstorms out. As we head into the Friday time frame the ec
begins to deepen an upper level low while the GFS builds a weak
ridge over the region. The ensemble means of both the ec and the
gfs are indicating a zonal flow pattern. With this in mind I have
gone with a blend of the ec and GFS pops into the weekend. Sven

Aviation 29 00z TAF cycle... A mix of MVFR ifr ceilings will
persist over the coastal waters and along the coast tonight
into Monday with patchy fog and drizzle. Marine stratus will
spread into the umpqua basin, including roseburg around 10z
with MVFR prevailing there through about 19z. Expect the low
ceilings to erode back to near the coast Monday afternoon. The
rest of the area will beVFR. However, isolated afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms are possible from western
siskiyou county northeastward up the cascades Monday, which could
bring temporary lower conditions. -spilde

Marine Updated 800 pm Sunday 28 may 2017... Winds are currently
light over the area... But there is widespread stratus and fog
that could produce some drizzle and occasionally reduce
visibilities to less than a half of a mile.

North winds will increase late tonight with the redevelopment of a
thermal trough and will peak on Monday (likely below small craft
advisory levels). The thermal trough will weaken as a disturbance
moves onshore Tuesday. Additional weak disturbances will keep
generally light, variable winds and low seas over the area
Wednesday Thursday and even into Friday. The thermal trough will
return though late Friday into next weekend with strengthening north
winds and steepening seas over most of the area, especially south of
cape blanco.

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... None.

15 15 15

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from LKV (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSE9S7S7S8SW8W9W6W9W6SW9S6S5SW9W7S6S5S8S9S12S14
1 day agoN13NW7NW7N8N13
2 days agoSW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.