Sunrise 5:42 AM   Sunset 8:24 PM Moonrise 12:41 PM   Moonset 1:44 AM

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FXUS66 KMFR 160545 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1045 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024

UPDATE
Updated the aviation section.

AVIATION
16/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for most locations. The exception will be along the coast north of Cape Blanco and in the Umpqua Basin. The coastal IFR/LIFR conditions will persist well into Thursday morning, possibly locally into the afternoon. A weak marine push will also bring some patchy IFR ceilings to portions of the Umpqua Basin as well, potentially affecting Roseburg around 11Z to 17Z. These lower conditions should improve to VFR by late Thursday morning

Otherwise, expect gusty, breezy low level winds again Thursday afternoon, especially along the coast where north winds of 25 to 35 kts are expected. /DW

MARINE
Updated 800 PM Wednesday, May 15, 2024...A thermal trough pattern will maintain gusty north winds and very steep and hazardous wind driven seas through tonight. Seas will be steepest and winds will be strongest, reaching gales, south of Cape Blanco during the afternoons and evenings. North of Cape Blanco, very steep and hazardous seas with gusty winds are expected, but remaining below gale force.

The thermal trough pattern weakens some on Thursday and gales will ease. Despite this subtle improvement, gusty winds and steep to very steep and hazardous seas will persist through the end of the week.
Conditions may improve overall over the weekend as the upper level pattern transitions, though expect conditions to remain hazardous to small craft for areas south of Cape Blanco as northerly winds continue. /BR-y

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 203 PM PDT Wed May 15 2024/

SHORT TERM
The rest of today through Thursday night
Offshore flow (NE winds) due to a strong and persistent thermal trough continues to bring sunny, warm weather all the way to the beaches of far SW Oregon this afternoon. The NE winds are funneling down the Chetco River Valley into Brookings and this is sending temperatures into the upper 80s once again. Gusty north winds are occurring farther north along the coast, so enough marine influence is keeping temperatures there mostly in the upper 50s and 60s. Inland, aside from some high, wispy clouds, skies are sunny and it's another warm afternoon. Most west side valley areas will top out in the 80s, though some 90s will occur in the lower Klamath River Valley of western Siskiyou County. Temps in the upper 70s to near 80F are expected for areas east of the Cascades and in NE California.

Tonight, we'll see a deepening marine layer and another marine push, this time perhaps a little farther inland than last night.
This should result in low clouds and some fog again and even a little mist/drizzle along the north coast and into the Coquille Valley. Models are showing the moist layer to around 1000 feet, so some clouds could make it all the way into the Umpqua Basin, or bank up against the Umpqua Divide (about a 20-30% chance). Elsewhere, it will be mainly clear.

Any low clouds should break up again on Thursday resulting in another mainly sunny, dry day. Heights do lower a bit west of the Cascades in advance of a trough moving in from the NW and the thermal trough will weaken (at least briefly). While temperatures on Thursday will be near or even a bit warmer than today from the Cascades eastward, it will be near or even cooler than today over the west side. With a bit more marine influence, it will be cooler on the SW coast. The upper trough and a dry cold front will push through Thursday night. This will bring a deeper marine push into the Umpqua Basin with some clouds possibly reaching into the Rogue Valley by Friday morning. -Spilde

LONG TERM
Friday 5/17 through Wednesday 5/22
The long term forecast begins with a slight pattern change. While southern Oregon and northern California will be mostly under the influence of a ridge of high pressure for most of the weekend, a trough of low pressure will dig southward over eastern Washington and Idaho. While this will not bring rainfall to our area, this could cause breezy to gusty northwesterly winds--particularly in the afternoons.
Additional troughs will dig southward following this trajectory, and maybe a bit more southward over the weekend helping to keep us somewhat cooler with additional afternoon breezes and some fair weather cumulus clouds.

By Monday, an additional trough pushes southward, but this front will be closer to central Oregon. This could bring additional breezy winds, but also our first shower chances--particularly along the higher terrain of the Cascades and coast range in Douglas and Coos County. Rainfall will be relatively light, and thunderstorms are generally not expected (less than a 10 percent chance).
Temperatures, however, will be several degrees cooler than over the weekend.

Then on Tuesday into Wednesday, another low spins southward, this time over western Oregon and could bring additional showers and thunderstorms (chances are just less than 15 percent at this time).
Winds will continue to be relatively breezy and temperatures will remain slightly below normal through mid-week. Since the weather will be based on a low pressure system that has not formed yet, the confidence is relatively low--especially since the impacts will be tied to the location of the low. Used the National Blend of Models and am forecasting the most likely scenario at this point since clusters are in general agreement over the large scale and differ over some of the smaller features. Keep an eye to the forecast for updates. -Schaaf

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR
CA
None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370- 376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350- 356-370-376.

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