Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Great Barrington, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:22PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 2:26 AM EST (07:26 UTC) Moonrise 12:04PMMoonset 10:19PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1234 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Overnight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Isolated flurries.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of flurries in the morning.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely.
Sat..E winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Sun..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1234 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front from the great lakes moves through tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north for Wednesday into Wednesday night. A weak upper level disturbance passes on Thursday. A frontal system and associated low pressure will then impact the area over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Great Barrington, MA
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location: 42.19, -73.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 120531
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1231 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
Seasonably cool and mainly dry weather is expected through
Thursday, with a few light snow showers possible tonight and
again Thursday. A storm system may bring rain to the region
Friday night into Saturday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1230 am est, skies remain mostly cloudy overcast across
the region, although some breaks remain across portions of
litchfield county ct and extreme SE vt. Still some snow
showers flurries across the region, most frequent across higher
terrain of the SW adirondacks, southern vt, and eastern
catskills. In these areas, an additional coating to half inch
could occur through daybreak. In valley areas, scattered
dustings may occur where snow showers are more persistent,
otherwise little or no accumulation. Snow showers flurries
should decrease in areal coverage between 3 and 6 am as the main
upper level trough passes east of the region.

With clouds expected to remain widespread until around daybreak,
temps will likely hold steady in most areas, before dropping
around sunrise with increased cold advection and perhaps some
breaks in the cloud cover. So min temps around daybreak
generally in the lower mid 20s across valley areas, and upper
teens to lower 20s across higher terrain.

Short term 6 am this morning through Friday
The trough exits east Wednesday with shortwave ridging building
into the local area. Some morning cloud cover is expected to
diminish by the afternoon as high pressure expands into the area
at the surface. High temperatures are expected to be slightly
below normal. Good radiational cooling conditions the first part
of the night should allow for a quick drop in temperatures,
especially over the snowpack, before a light easterly flow kicks
in and high clouds increase ahead of the next system late.

Another chilly night expected with lows likely falling below
zero over the southern adirondacks, with teens to near 20 in the
hudson valley.

On Thursday, a compact closed low approaches from the great
lakes. Again, moisture is limited with this system, and the
extent of the forcing will be somewhat limited due to the
compact nature of the system. It looks like the best chance of
seeing any measurable precipitation will be over the catskills
as the forcing is expected to weaken with eastward extent. At
this point there is little to suggest anything more than a
dusting. High temps look to be below normal once again in the
mid-20s to mid-30s.

Mainly quiet weather continues Thursday night into Friday as
midlevel ridging builds in. Low temps near normal Thursday
night. Some indication for some drizzle freezing drizzle over
southern zones Thursday night into early Friday with moist low-
level flow and drier midlevels. Will continue to monitor this
potential. Otherwise, slightly warmer temperatures can be
expected Friday as low-level warm advection occurs, with highs
back near to slightly above normal.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Considerable spread continues in the guidance and ensembles for
the storm which is expected to the impact the region as we head
into this weekend. This includes the timing, location track of
the system and its intensity; all leading to high uncertainty in
the forecast. Have favored guidance from wpc to maintain
forecast consistency.

Guidance does show agreement there should be a slow moving
stacked southern stream system which develops over the texas and
moves eastward across the deep south. However, the spread in
the guidance grows significantly as we head into the weekend.

At this time, it looks like a rain event as temperatures are
expected to warm into the upper 30s to mid 40s on Saturday. Some
snows are possible across the higher terrain of the southern
adirondacks and southern green mountains Friday night. It appears
midnight to noon Saturday will be the main impact period. The
system taps both gulf tropical and atlantic moisture so a
moderate to locally heavy rain is possible. Have lingering
chance pops through Saturday afternoon and night with rain
changing to snow as colder air is drawn back in.

Confidence in the forecast drop even further as we head in the
latter part of the weekend and into early next week as the
guidance is all over the place handling northern and southern
stream short waves. At this time, have climatological pops of
around 20 percent Sunday into Tuesday with slightly above normal
temperatures from mid december.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Upper system exiting and low level flow across great lakes has
supported extensive cloud cover over our region with some snow
flurries at times. Clouds and flurries will continue through about
09z-11z at kgfl, kalb and kpsf. The flurries are expected to stay
north of kpou but the cloud cover will persist there. Some flurries
around kpsf could bring the ceiling down to around 1500 feet at
times through about 10z.

Clouds will break up through the morning as the upper energy exits
and low level flow turns more north. Ceilings above 3000 feet
should break up at kpou by mid morning and the rest of the TAF sites
around midday or early afternoon. The sky will become clear and
remain clear through this evening.

Light and variable winds through mid morning will become northwest
to north at less than 10 kt, continue through the afternoon and then
diminish to light this evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: high operational impact. Likely ra.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Likely shra... Ra.

Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Sunday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Shsn.

Hydrology
No hydrologically significant precipitation is expected through
at least Thursday. Temperatures averaging below normal, and
mainly below freezing, will support expansion and thickening of
ice on area waterways.

A warm-up appears possible Friday into the weekend ahead of a
strong low pressure system approaching from the southern us.

There is still considerable uncertainty on the track of this
system and resulting qpf, but moderate to locally heavy
precipitation appears possible Friday night into Saturday as
the system transports tropical moisture northward.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Thompson
near term... Iaa kl thompson
short term... Thompson
long term... Iaa
aviation... Nas iaa
hydrology... Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 32 mi56 min 28°F 1015 hPa20°F
TKPN6 33 mi56 min Calm G 1 28°F 34°F19°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 67 mi56 min N 8 G 13 33°F 46°F1013.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 71 mi56 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 32°F 44°F1013.7 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA17 mi32 minWNW 68.00 miOvercast25°F19°F78%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from PSF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW7SW4SW3NW5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW4NW5CalmNW4NW6
1 day agoW5W6SW3W4CalmCalmN8N8NW9
G17
N8NW7N7NW8NW6N4CalmW4NW3CalmCalmCalmW5CalmCalm
2 days agoW4W5W7SW4W4W3W3SW5SW7S6S9SW8SW9SW74SW3SW4W7SW6NW44SW4NW3NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Hudson
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Wed -- 12:25 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:28 AM EST     3.32 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:19 PM EST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:31 PM EST     3.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:21 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.311.92.633.33.32.92.11.30.90.70.81.42.33.13.63.83.83.52.71.71

Tide / Current Tables for Catskill, Hudson River, New York
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Catskill
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Wed -- 12:10 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:11 AM EST     3.17 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:05 PM EST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:23 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:14 PM EST     3.68 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:22 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.41.222.633.23.12.61.81.20.80.70.91.62.53.13.53.73.63.22.31.50.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.