Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ashland, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:32PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 11:59 AM PDT (18:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:32PMMoonset 7:04AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 922 Am Pdt Tue May 21 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Low pressure will remain over the waters into this evening with a building west swell and moderate northwest winds becoming north late this afternoon. Offshore high pressure sets up tonight and will persist through at least Thursday with very steep seas south of bandon and beyond 5 nm from shore south of gold beach.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ashland, OR
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location: 42.2, -122.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 211823
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1123 am pdt Tue may 21 2019

Updated aviation discussion
Discussion A wet day is expected across the forecast area, and the
forecast looks on track. A quarter to half inch of rain is
expected through this evening across most of southwestern oregon
and northern california. The air mass is cold, in the coldest 10
percent for this date, with 5000-foot temperatures at 2.5c. Snow
is being observed in the mountains this morning (per latest cam at
dead indian memorial road, highway 140 at lake of the woods, and
highway 299 at cedar pass), with most roadways wet now as the may
sun angle begins to melt any snow. Still, anybody traveling into
the mountains today could see reduced visibility in snow and
perhaps a brief period of slippery roadways.

Isolated thunderstorms are expected for most of the forecast area
today. It feels like we're putting thunderstorms in the forecast
often lately, but late may plus a cold low are good ingredients
by themselves for at least a few storms. Of course small hail and
brief heavy showers are possible with any storms this time of year
too.

Please see the previous forecast discussion below for more details
on this continued active, cool pattern.

Aviation For the 21 18z tafs... Low pressure is moving through the
forecast area today, spreading showers across most areas. Mountain
obscuration is expected most areas through tonight. A mix of
conditions exists currently, but ceilings are generally MVFR and
will continue like this through the day. Tonight, conditions should
degrade some to low MVFR or ifr in valleys west of the cascades.

Most locations should improve toVFR by Wednesday afternoon, and
gusty north winds are expected. Keene

Marine Updated 900 am pdt Tuesday 21 may 2019... Low pressure will
remain over the waters with moderate west winds through this
evening. At the same time a heavier west swell between 14 and 16
feet at 14 seconds will continue into early this evening, then
gradually subsiding tonight.

Offshore high pressure will rebuild Wednesday and persist through
the remainder of the week. As a result, moderate to strong north
winds will develop over the waters. Steep wind-driven and fresh
swell dominated seas will also occur Wednesday through at least
Thursday night, especially south of bandon and beyond 5 nm off the
coast south of port orford where hazardous seas warning conditions
are expected. Adjustments were made to the hazard headline to
reflect this. Please see mwwmfr for more details. -petrucelli

Prev discussion issued 430 am pdt Tue may 21 2019
short term... A closed low nearing the oregon coast early this
morning will move onshore today bringing widespread showers and
isolated to scattered thunderstorms to SW oregon and northern
california. It has been snowing overnight at elevations mostly
above 5000 feet, including at diamond lake. While web cams have
been showing mostly wet pavement thus far, there could be a few
inches in some mountain areas above 5000 feet through sunrise. A
winter weather advisory remains in effect through 7 am this
morning, so travelers should be aware of potential wintry
conditions.

While today's precipitable water values are not anomalous with
respect to climatology (around 0.50-0.75" west of the cascades and
0.33-0.50" east of the cascades), model soundings are showing a
saturated environment all the way up to around 400mb (20-25kft).

Since the closed low and the core of the coldest air aloft
(approximately -26c) will be moving in overhead at peak heating,
there will be enough instability (around 500 j kg) to support
healthy showers and also some thunderstorms. Any of the stronger
cells could produce brief wind gusts, downpours and small hail.

The preponderance of the guidance is showing near or more than
0.50 of an inch of rain here in medford for the 12 hours ending at
5 pm this evening. This is fairly rare for late may, so keep the
umbrella handy. Incidentally, the daily precipitation record for
may 21 for medford is 0.80 of an inch set in 1996.

The closed low will move southeastward into the great basin
tonight, then remain to our east with broad north-northeast flow
aloft Wednesday and Thursday. With the loss of instability,
coverage of showers will diminish late this evening and overnight,
but they won't go away completely. On Wednesday, while isolated to
scattered showers are still possible, especially near the
cascades and over the east side, much of the time will be dry.

It'll remain cool with high temperatures about 5 degrees below
normal. On Thursday, temperatures get back to around normal for
most areas (low to mid 70s west side, mid 60s east side). Still
expect some instability with isolated to scattered showers along
and east of the cascades, but it should be dry for the most part
west of the cascades. -spilde
in the extended, Monday afternoon's discussion remains valid...

long term... Friday, may 24 through Monday, apr 27, 2019... The
main theme of the extended forecast period remains unchanged, and
that is that unsettled weather will continue. There has been a
change in timing, however, and all guidance has delayed the
arrival of a close upper low over our area until Saturday. This
means Friday is liable to be drier than it has looked, but we've
still got a chance for showers from the cascades east along with a
slight chance for thunderstorms from our california zones up
through the far east side in oregon. Saturday could be quite
active as the upper low moves right across our area. We've still
got chance pops due to the showery nature of the precipitation,
but the threat of thunderstorms now extends back onto portions of
the west side. Instability shown in the deterministic guidance
isn't impressive, but it's really hard to imagine a closed low in
late may not producing some lightning.

The low then drops down into california and we continue to have lots
of wrap-around showers and thunderstorms, especially east side and
norcal up to the cascades. The GFS (and gefs) now show the low
moving farther east over the weekend and cuts off our precipitation.

This is a fairly new feature of the GFS which is not supported by
other guidance, so no changes were made based on the gfs. However,
this does lower confidence in the eventual track of the low over the
weekend. -wright

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Friday
for pzz350-356-370-376. Hazardous seas warning from 11 am
Wednesday to 5 am pdt Friday for pzz356-370-376.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 84 mi47 min WNW 8 G 9.9 53°F 55°F1008.4 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR15 mi66 minNE 59.00 miLight Rain49°F44°F83%1006.7 hPa

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6NE5NW55NW5NW136NW9N7NW9NW6CalmNE5N3NW5W4CalmCalmN6N3CalmSW3CalmNE5
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S7SE9SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3N4

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
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Tue -- 01:18 AM PDT     7.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:51 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:11 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:24 AM PDT     -1.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:08 PM PDT     5.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:14 PM PDT     2.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:36 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:38 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.476.864.52.70.9-0.5-1.2-1.2-0.31.12.64.15.15.55.34.73.83.12.82.93.54.5

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:17 AM PDT     7.03 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:51 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:12 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 08:20 AM PDT     -1.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:07 PM PDT     5.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:10 PM PDT     2.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:36 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.576.85.94.42.60.8-0.6-1.3-1.1-0.31.12.74.15.15.55.34.63.83.12.82.93.64.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.