Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Scituate, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 5:23PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 5:17 PM EST (22:17 UTC) Moonrise 7:47PMMoonset 8:24AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 330 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Patchy fog. Snow. Sleet, rain and freezing rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less after midnight.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of rain with patchy drizzle in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. A chance of rain and snow in the evening, then rain with snow likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Mon..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt, decreasing to 30 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 330 Pm Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres moves over the waters this evening. Low pres approaches the waters from the sw tonight, then passes over the waters Thu bringing strong se winds to the waters. High pres follows for Fri and Sat. A warm front should approach the waters Sun. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Scituate, MA
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location: 42.2, -70.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 202207
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
507 pm est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
Strong high pressure moves off to the east tonight. Low pressure
from the western gulf of mexico will redevelop along the east
coast tonight and move across new england early Thursday. This
will bring a period of snow and ice, changing to rain along the
coast. High pressure follows with drier air Thursday afternoon
through Saturday. Another round of a wintry mix of precipitation
is possible Saturday night into Sunday, followed by dry and
seasonable conditions next Monday and Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Broad upper ridge and surface high pressure are moving east of
new england. Shortwave moving out of the plains will cross the
great lakes tonight and northern new england Thursday. Our prime
concern for tonight is a coastal secondary low developing off
north carolina. This will move up the coast tonight and pass off
the southern new england coastline roughly 09z to 12z. The
leading edge of precipitation associated with this low was
moving up through ct at 3 pm, mainly as light snow but with more
substantial snowfall over the southwest corner of the state.

This snow will spread across southern new england early tonight.

Warmer air aloft is also moving up the coast. Above freezing air
at 850 mb is expected to reach the mass pike around 1 am and the
nh border around 4 am. Southeast winds should bring surface
temps above freezing along the coast and the southeast interior
during the overnight. Weak cold air damming over western and
central sections may hold in surface cold air through the night.

Because of this, we expect a variety of weather during the
night. Snow all areas will mix change to sleet and freezing rain
during the middle of the night, then coastal and some southern
areas will change to rain between midnight and sunrise.

Saturation in the prime growth zone aloft will be limited to a
couple of hours, so accumulations will be limited. Best
potential for snow is one to two inches. Freezing precipitation
overnight will also bring a layer of ice, but this will be
roughly one-tenth inch or less.

The ice that follows the snow will be the more important threat
in creating slippery spots on untreated surfaces. The winter
weather advisory continues through the night.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Thursday...

coastal low pressure moves off to the east in the morning.

Lingering light rain drizzle is possible at the start,
especially along eastern mass and ri. Drier air moves in later
in the morning and afternoon. And should eventually eat away the
low moisture and clouds.

Clearing skies will allow daytime heating, with temperatures in
the mixed layer favoring MAX sfc temps in the mid 40s to low
50s. Winds in the mixed layer will be near 30 mph, so expect
gusts in that vicinity during the afternoon.

Thursday night...

high pressure builds over the great lakes, setting up a
northwest flow over new england. This should maintain dry
weather as well as a return of the colder air, with overnight
min temps in the 20s and lower 30s.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
* dry and seasonable conditions Friday into Saturday
* another round of wintry weather early Saturday night,
changing to rain by mid morning Sunday
* dry and near seasonable conditions return Mon tue, with
potential for strong winds Mon into Mon night
* another weather system may approach Tue night wed
overview...

12z model suite continues to signal amplified pattern
continuing especially across the western u.S., with h5 long
wave trough around the eastern rockies into western plains
states. Downstream nearly zonal flow exiting through the great
lakes to new england, while subtropical ridge extends from the
eastern gulf of mexico to the southwest atlc. This will keep an
active, progressive storm track across the N central and NE u.S.

Through at least the upcoming weekend.

Models and ensembles signaling that the western h5 trough may
break down during late Fri and the upcoming weekend as a
leftover progressive cutoff low moves in the northern stream
flow. It appears the system will merge with another cutoff
system across N central and eastern canada. By Sun night or mon,
looks like a nearly zonal flow sets up across most of the lower
48, though some broad mid level troughing across the northeast
and lowering h5 heights will bring below normal temps by the
middle of next week.

Another system may push eastward in the northern stream flow
around the Tue night Wed timeframe, but individual model
members showing quite a wide solution spread so a lot of
uncertainty with the timing and track of this potential
system.

Details...

Friday through Saturday...

high pressure builds E out of the great lakes Friday, crossing
the region on Saturday. With the general W wind flow in place,
expect temps to reach close to seasonal levels both days.

As the center of the high crosses new england Saturday, may
start to see mid and high clouds increase from S to N during the
afternoon.

Saturday night through Sunday night...

strengthening low pres, lowering to about 975 to 980 hpa by
Sunday morning, will move across the central great lakes into
western quebec. Frontal system extends to the S and E of this
low, with another low forming on the front. As this frontal low
pushes across the region, will see enhanced SE wind flow,
bringing influx of low level moisture which will combine with
pwat plume working across the region (on the order of 2-3 sd
above normal as seen on 12z GEFS forecast). So, have forecasted
qpf amounts from around 0.6 to 1 inch, highest along S coastal
areas by the time it tapers off Sun evening.

Expect a mix of snow, sleet, freezing rain and even rain across
the coastal plain at the onset of the precip Sat evening, then
should gradually change to rain from s-n mainly around or after
midnight. So, could see upwards to an inch of snow across NE and
n central mass, but more problematic could be some icing across
the east slopes of the berkshires into the northern worcester
hills before the changeover.

May see leftover light rain across N and E mass Sun evening,
which could change to snow across the inland higher terrain
overnight.

Temps will recover to the mid 40s to around 50 as the precip
ends on Sunday. Westerly winds will start to increase, becoming
gusty along the coast as higher terrain as strong low level jet
with excellent low level mixing (with ll lapse rates on order
of 9c km or greater through h95-h85) crossing the region.

Monday and Tuesday...

as the strong low spins across the maritimes, excellent low
level mixing continues on Monday, with low level jet up to 50-55
kt! So, could strong gusts could be realized with the continued
strong low level mixing. Could see gusts up to 35-45 kt, highest
across the higher terrain and along the coast through Monday,
slowly diminishing Monday night as the pres gradient finally
relaxes from the maritime low. Wind headlines may be needed.

Tuesday night and Wednesday...

rather high uncertainty on approach of another fast moving system
during this timeframe. May see another round of snow move in tue
night, with possible mix or change to rain across southern
portions of the region during wed.

Aviation 22z Wednesday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

Tonight...

conditions will lower to MVFR ifr during the night as snow moves
in from the southwest. Expect MVFR CIGS and ifr vsbys after 7 pm
in the west after 10 pm in the east. Warmer air aloft will
change the snow to sleet and freezing rain between 9 pm and
midnight. Warmer air moving in at the surface on southeast winds
will change the precip to rain roughly 3 to 6 am.

Thursday...

coastal storm moves off to the east. Lingering low clouds and
drizzle during the morning, but this should diminish as drier
air moves in on increasing west winds. BecomingVFR by
afternoon.

Thursday night...

vfr. Breezy west to northwest winds.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate
confidence in timing precipitation type changes after midnight.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate
confidence in timing precipitation type changes after 9 pm.

Outlook Friday through Monday ...

Friday:VFR. Breezy.

Friday night through Saturday:VFR.

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Ra, fzra, chance sn, chance pl.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy. Ra, fzra.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Strong
winds with areas of gusts up to 45 kt. Slight chance ra.

Monday:VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to 45 kt.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

Tonight...

light southwest winds turn from the southeast. Wind gusts
increasing to 30 knots after midnight. Seas building to 5-8 feet
on the southern and southeast waters after midnight. Snow
changes to sleet and then rain after midnight. Small craft
advisory on most waters.

Thursday...

rain tapers off in the morning. Winds shift out of the west.

Gusts increase to 30 knots by afternoon. Seas linger at 5-8
feet on all exposed waters.

Thursday night...

west-northwest winds gusting to 30 knots. Seas 5-7 feet on the
exposed waters.

Outlook Friday through Monday ...

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday night through Saturday: winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain.

Sunday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain.

Sunday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Monday: low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to 45 kt.

Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Tides coastal flooding
High astronomical tides are forecast for Thursday, with heights
near 12.5 ft at bos and close to 6 ft at pvd.

Main concern for Thursday is the mid morning high tide in
narragansett bay and buzzards bay, and the late morning high
tide along the east coast. Guidance is suggesting a surge up to
1 ft is possible near high tide which may bring storm tides to
near flood stage at pvd and bos. Expect pockets of minor coastal
flooding, mainly in the usual spots. A coastal flood statement
has been issued.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Thursday for ctz002>004.

Ma... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Thursday for maz002>021-
026.

Ri... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Thursday for riz001>007.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 am Thursday to 7 am est Friday for
anz232>234.

Small craft advisory from 2 am to 7 am est Thursday for anz231-
251.

Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 7 am est Friday
for anz235-237-250-254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb evt
near term... Wtb
short term... Wtb
long term... Evt
aviation... Wtb evt
marine... Wtb evt
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 11 mi87 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 28°F 39°F1 ft1031.9 hPa (-1.2)9°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 20 mi47 min 29°F 1031.6 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 24 mi73 min WSW 7.8 G 12 28°F 37°F1 ft1031 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 31 mi87 min SW 5.8 G 9.7 26°F 1 ft1032.2 hPa (-1.3)10°F
44090 33 mi47 min 36°F1 ft
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 41 mi47 min 28°F 41°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi47 min SSW 9.9 G 13 29°F 1032.3 hPa
FRXM3 42 mi47 min 29°F 8°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 44 mi92 min SSE 1.9 29°F 1033 hPa10°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 45 mi47 min WSW 8.9 G 11 29°F 37°F1031.5 hPa
PVDR1 45 mi47 min SW 8 G 11 30°F 1032.1 hPa8°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 47 mi47 min 28°F 35°F1032.2 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 47 mi47 min SSW 8.9 G 12 28°F 37°F1032.2 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA8 mi42 minVar 410.00 miFair30°F8°F40%1031.8 hPa
East Milton, MA20 mi21 minSSW 8 mi25°F8°F48%1032 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA20 mi23 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast30°F8°F39%1031.2 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA20 mi25 minS 610.00 miOvercast28°F12°F51%1031.9 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA23 mi24 minS 710.00 miOvercast30°F8°F39%1031.4 hPa

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4CalmNW5NW6NW4W4CalmW3W4W4CalmCalm5CalmCalmW5--444W4Calm4SW4
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2 days ago3SE4CalmS4S5CalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmE65E5346
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Tide / Current Tables for Scituate, Massachusetts
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Scituate
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Wed -- 05:17 AM EST     -1.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:32 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:23 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:26 AM EST     11.15 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:21 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:51 PM EST     -1.94 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:47 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.57.95.52.80.3-1.1-0.71.23.96.99.51110.99.474.11-1.2-1.9-0.81.54.47.39.5

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:37 AM EST     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:17 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:33 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:25 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:15 AM EST     1.49 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:07 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 02:54 PM EST     -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:43 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:47 PM EST     1.54 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:39 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.8-1.2-1.4-1.4-1.2-0.30.81.41.51.40.90.1-0.6-1.2-1.5-1.5-1.4-0.80.31.21.51.51.30.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.