Thursday, February22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Scituate, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 5:26PM Thursday February 22, 2018 9:22 PM EST (02:22 UTC) Moonrise 11:17AMMoonset 12:30AM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 716 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Snow likely this evening with vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sun..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less, except 2 to 4 ft at the outer harbor entrance.
Mon night..NW winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Est Thu Feb 22 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A wave of low pres tracks south of new england by early evening. High moves east of nova scotia Friday with a series of frontal systems sweeping the waters through the weekend. High pres builds over the waters early next week. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Scituate, MA
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location: 42.2, -70.73     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 222349
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
649 pm est Thu feb 22 2018

Synopsis
A wave of low pressure tracking along a stalled frontal boundary to
the south will bring a period of snow and sleet to much of the
region late this afternoon and early evening, then drying overnight.

Active weather pattern late Friday through the weekend as a series
of frontal boundaries usher wintry weather across the interior. A
near-seasonable, quiet pattern for early next week.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
700 pm update...

trends in the forecast remains on track for this evening.

Latest radar imagery shows bulk of the precip moving offshore
with some banding still ongoing across the cape. Thus cannot
rule out a quick dusting coating within the next hour.

High pressure to the north will begin to push the flow to a more
easterly direction. This will result in an increase in low level
moisture. Model soundings show the lowest 1.0 kft saturated
which could increase low level clouds and thus limit any
radiational cooling overnight. Still expect some icy spots as
temps will still fall below freezing. Low confidence if drizzle
will develop along the eastern ma shoreline, but something to
watch.

Previous discussion...

overnight... Later this evening dry weather overspreads the area
however with light winds and subfreezing temps across much of the
region, any standing water or slush will freeze. Thus icy spots
possible overnight.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
Friday...

dry and seasonably cool in the morning as 1042 mb high crest over
maine. Could have some leftover icy spots early that may impact the
morning commute. Otherwise fast progressive upper air pattern
results in any breaks of morning sunshine quickly giving way to
increasing clouds as next WAA pattern develops.

Precip overspreads the region during mid to late afternoon from west
east. Cold air is not as deep tomorrow, more shallow and will
support a period of sleet and freezing rain across western-central
ma. Remainder of the region will see a chilly rain.

Friday night...

weak wave crosses the area with evening rain but risk of freezing
rain across western-central ma. Drying trend second half of the
night as post frontal airmass overspreads the region. Not as chilly
as tonight with lows Fri night in the 30s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Highlights...

* dry and warm as spring returns on Saturday
* widespread precip on Sunday with wintry mix in the interior
* dry weather trend for early next week
* pattern change for mid to late next week
overview...

12z guidance is in general agreement with the extended forecast.

Just some minor differences related to thermals which provide
different outcomes in p-type for Saturday night into Sunday. Trough
across the western CONUS with southeast ridging deamplifying over the
weekend. Last of the pacific waves will move through Sunday with
surface high pressure to follow into Monday. By early next week the
pattern will begin to change as nao turns negative. Mid-level ridge
across the southeast into the great lakes with cut-off low off the
maritimes. Both the GEFS and eps show anomolous high pressure
building over greenland which will influence the cut-off low to
either retrograde towards sne or remain across the north atlantic.

Depending on where this all stacks up, appears the trend is there
that our pattern could turn more active late next week.

Details...

Saturday... Moderate confidence.

Dry weather day will be on tap as surface high pressure will fill in
behind the offshore front. Still seeing westerly to northwest flow
as 850mb CAA moves into the region. However, appears that surface
temps have the potential to warm into the mid 50s thank to longer
daylight hours and mixing to 925mb which are cooler to cool. Some
guidance even hints as low 60s. Still some uncertainty as how far
south the front will sage will lead to cooler temps or if it slows
down then warm temps are possible. Thus a low confidence forecast
for temps on Saturday, but high confidence on mainly dry weather.

Saturday night into Sunday... Increasing confidence.

Potent wave will eject out of the desert southwest producing a
surface low pressure system up into the northern great lakes.

Stalled front to the south will begin to lift northward as a warm
front. Along the front, triple point low will develop and strengthen
as the system pulls away from the area Sunday night. Before the
secondary low develops, another overrunning precip set-up as
moisture from the south increase as warm front begins to lift
northward. Surface high pressure will be set-up north to northeast
of the region allowing for surface temps to fall thanks to cold air
damming. Models are always to quick at warming temps above
freezing, so trended towards cooler 2m temps and wet-bulb
effects.

P-type will once again be the issue as models are still struggling
with the warm layer. Ec trended to be the coolest of the guidance
which could suggest more snow than freezing rain, whereas the NAM is
the warmest. GFS and the cmc are in the middle of the ground and
thus trended towards the ensembles guidance. Therefore, went a bit
cooler with this forecast resulting in snow at the onset, as cold
air looks to be deep enough north of the pike and ESP route 2. In
fact with good omega in the snow growth region, could see a few
inches of snowfall. Once the mid-level warm front pushes into the
region, a transition to more sleet freezing rain will occur leading
to slick travel across the interior. South of the pike and
especially across ri and SE ma conditions look to warm for any
wintry weather, but still will have to watch as a change in just a
few degrees will impact p-type.

This system looks to the most roust resulting in more widespread
precip, ESP as we continue to tap into that gulf moisture. Thus
increases pops as confidence is high that precip will occur. Lastly,
with the surface warm front trying to push northward, may have a
large gradient in surface temperatures somewhere across southern new
england. While warm fronts tend to struggle to lift northward this
time of year something to watch as we could see low 50s across the
south coast and mid 30s across the interior.

Sunday night into Wednesday... High confidence.

Surface cold front will push through the region resulting in a
drying trend for Sunday night. Strong high pressure over the ohio
valley will begin to strengthen Monday into Tuesday as anomolous ridge
sets-up over the mississippi valley. This high appears to stay in
place into middle of next week before a quick moving wave from the
southwest gets kick into the flow. Thanks to ridging and surface
high, dry weather will prevail as temperatures turn slightly above
average.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... Moderate confidence.

00z TAF update ...

after 00z... MVFR in -sn ending by 01z. Trend should be dry, but
enough low level moisture for MVFR ifr CIGS to hang around
during the overnight hours.

Friday... VFR but trending MVFR late in rain with pl western-
central ma.

Friday night... Low risk of llws with low level wsw jet. MVFR in
evening rain improving toVFR and dry overnight.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence taf. Morning push may be
impacted with some MVFR ifr cigs.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence taf.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ... Moderate confidence.

Saturday:VFR.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Ra
likely, sn likely, slight chance fzra across the interior.

Sunday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Windy with gusts to
35 kt. Ra, fzra.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible.

Monday through Tuesday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... Moderate confidence.

Tonight...

sca for southern ri waters and south of mvy ack with marginal ne
winds up to 25 kt and seas up to 5 ft, then trending downward later
tonight. Snow, sleet and rain limit vsby this evening but improving
later this evening from west to east.

Friday...

1041 mb high over maine in the morning slides offshore with weak low
pres moving across southern new england. Light NE winds become se.

Vsby lowers late in rain.

Friday night...

weak low pres and attending cold front move offshore with wnw winds
developing along with improving vsby from early rain showers.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Chance of
rain.

Sunday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Areas of rough seas. Rain.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for anz255-
256.

Synopsis... Nocera dunten
near term... Nocera dunten
short term... Nocera
long term... Dunten
aviation... Nocera dunten
marine... Nocera dunten


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 11 mi93 min E 5.8 G 5.8 34°F 40°F3 ft1037.9 hPa (+0.0)
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 20 mi53 min 34°F 1037.9 hPa
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 24 mi79 min 3.9 G 5.8 34°F 40°F2 ft1037.5 hPa
44090 33 mi53 min 38°F2 ft
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 41 mi53 min 34°F 40°F1038 hPa
FRXM3 42 mi53 min 33°F 30°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 42 mi53 min NE 5.1 G 7 34°F 1036.9 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 44 mi98 min 1 33°F 1039 hPa32°F
PVDR1 45 mi53 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 33°F 1038.2 hPa33°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 45 mi53 min ESE 1 G 6 33°F 41°F1038 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 47 mi53 min 33°F 38°F1037.3 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 47 mi53 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 34°F 42°F1037.7 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA8 mi48 minN 010.00 miOvercast36°F32°F87%1038.3 hPa
East Milton, MA20 mi87 minESE 3 mi0°F0°F%1036.6 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA20 mi29 minN 69.00 miOvercast34°F30°F89%1039 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA20 mi31 minNE 310.00 miOvercast35°F30°F85%1038.2 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA23 mi30 minN 010.00 miOvercast35°F30°F85%1039 hPa

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalm6
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1 day agoSW7SW7SW7SW8SW8
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2 days agoSW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Scituate, Scituate Harbor, Massachusetts
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Scituate
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Thu -- 03:30 AM EST     9.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:29 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:48 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:01 PM EST     8.82 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 10:07 PM EST     0.42 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.46.58.39.49.48.26.34.12.10.60.11.1356.88.28.88.26.74.82.81.20.41

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:05 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:04 AM EST     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:59 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 12:02 PM EST     1.24 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:31 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:24 PM EST     -1.03 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:17 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.31.10.70.1-0.6-1-1.2-1.1-0.9-0.600.91.21.10.80.4-0.3-0.8-1-1-0.8-0.6-0.20.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.