Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lawrence, MI
May 3, 2024 11:27 PM EDT (03:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:32 AM Sunset 8:45 PM Moonrise 3:25 AM Moonset 2:31 PM |
LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Rest of tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering east toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday - Southeast winds around 10 knots veering southwest, then veering north late in the day. Mostly Sunny with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots veering west late at night, then veering northwest 15 to 20 knots toward daybreak. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Sunday - North winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night - North winds 10 to 15 knots veering northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Monday - East winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday - Southwest winds around 15 knots. Mostly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 040301 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1101 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Increasing Chance for Showers/Storms Later Saturday into Saturday night
- Dry end of the weekend
- Many chances for rain next week
UPDATE
Issued at 1101 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
Nighttime microphysics imagery shows low clouds beginning to fill in across Southeast Lower Michigan this evening. Observations confirm the low clouds with bases below 1,000 feet at several sites. This stratus should expand and roll into Southwest Lower Michigan from the east overnight as easterly winds advect the clouds in. So, quite a bit of the area will be mostly cloudy at daybreak. Some fog is expected as well, especially near and north of I-96. Visibilities below 1 mile are expected. Maximum extent of the stratus and fog should be around 700am. We expect clearing to take place by midday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
- Increasing Chance for Showers/Storms Later Saturday into Saturday night
Southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front will draw up moisture from the south Saturday into Saturday night. Instability increases as well later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, but overall remains weak. Aloft some upper level divergence is seen Saturday night over the CWA so that may enhance the lift.
Thus the combination of moisture, lift and instability will likely lead to showers and a few storms. Ensemble QPF values, while low, have been trending up with the precipitation for this period.
- Dry end of the weekend
High pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley will produce plenty of sunshine Sunday. Highs will climb to a couple of degree either side of 70.
- Many chances for rain next week
The persistent upper trough over the western US is progd to cut off over the northern High Plains during the middle of the week. The result will be several short waves that move in our direction and bring chances for showers and storms.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night will be a time frame that will see increased chances for precipitation. An occluded front will lift north toward Lower MI Tuesday afternoon and this will produce some showers/storms. Present indications are that the strongest instability will remain south of the state. However, that could changed this far out. SPC has already highlighted areas to the southwest of the state for the potential of severe storms.
Another chance of showers/storms will come Thursday and Thursday night, when the surface low over the northern Plains moves east.
Accompanying short waves and a feed of moisture rich air from the south will spur convective development during this time.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 757 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
A combination of lingering low level moisture that will not decrease substantially behind this afternoon's cold frontal passage and a flow off of Lake Huron will produce stratus and fog tonight. We will be VFR through any flights at the TAF sites through 05Z or so. After 05Z, the stratus and fog will be making a push into Southwest Lower Michigan from the east. MVFR and IFR ceilings will develop at LAN and JXN around 06Z and overspread GRR/BTL and AZO by 09Z. The stratus will press into MKG by 11Z.
The lowest conditions, IFR and potentially LIFR will occur between 09Z and 13Z. Low clouds will lift to VFR through the daylight hours of the Saturday morning (12Z-16Z). VFR weather is expected Saturday afternoon. Winds will become east tonight and gradually become southeast and south on Saturday.
MARINE
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
Southerly flow will be on the increase Saturday into Saturday night as a front moves in from the west. This will be warm air advection and overall the values are expected to remain under 20 knots. Thus we don't plan on needing headlines a this time.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1101 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Increasing Chance for Showers/Storms Later Saturday into Saturday night
- Dry end of the weekend
- Many chances for rain next week
UPDATE
Issued at 1101 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
Nighttime microphysics imagery shows low clouds beginning to fill in across Southeast Lower Michigan this evening. Observations confirm the low clouds with bases below 1,000 feet at several sites. This stratus should expand and roll into Southwest Lower Michigan from the east overnight as easterly winds advect the clouds in. So, quite a bit of the area will be mostly cloudy at daybreak. Some fog is expected as well, especially near and north of I-96. Visibilities below 1 mile are expected. Maximum extent of the stratus and fog should be around 700am. We expect clearing to take place by midday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
- Increasing Chance for Showers/Storms Later Saturday into Saturday night
Southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front will draw up moisture from the south Saturday into Saturday night. Instability increases as well later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night, but overall remains weak. Aloft some upper level divergence is seen Saturday night over the CWA so that may enhance the lift.
Thus the combination of moisture, lift and instability will likely lead to showers and a few storms. Ensemble QPF values, while low, have been trending up with the precipitation for this period.
- Dry end of the weekend
High pressure over the upper Mississippi Valley will produce plenty of sunshine Sunday. Highs will climb to a couple of degree either side of 70.
- Many chances for rain next week
The persistent upper trough over the western US is progd to cut off over the northern High Plains during the middle of the week. The result will be several short waves that move in our direction and bring chances for showers and storms.
Tuesday night through Wednesday night will be a time frame that will see increased chances for precipitation. An occluded front will lift north toward Lower MI Tuesday afternoon and this will produce some showers/storms. Present indications are that the strongest instability will remain south of the state. However, that could changed this far out. SPC has already highlighted areas to the southwest of the state for the potential of severe storms.
Another chance of showers/storms will come Thursday and Thursday night, when the surface low over the northern Plains moves east.
Accompanying short waves and a feed of moisture rich air from the south will spur convective development during this time.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 757 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
A combination of lingering low level moisture that will not decrease substantially behind this afternoon's cold frontal passage and a flow off of Lake Huron will produce stratus and fog tonight. We will be VFR through any flights at the TAF sites through 05Z or so. After 05Z, the stratus and fog will be making a push into Southwest Lower Michigan from the east. MVFR and IFR ceilings will develop at LAN and JXN around 06Z and overspread GRR/BTL and AZO by 09Z. The stratus will press into MKG by 11Z.
The lowest conditions, IFR and potentially LIFR will occur between 09Z and 13Z. Low clouds will lift to VFR through the daylight hours of the Saturday morning (12Z-16Z). VFR weather is expected Saturday afternoon. Winds will become east tonight and gradually become southeast and south on Saturday.
MARINE
Issued at 231 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024
Southerly flow will be on the increase Saturday into Saturday night as a front moves in from the west. This will be warm air advection and overall the values are expected to remain under 20 knots. Thus we don't plan on needing headlines a this time.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SVNM4 - South Haven, MI | 16 mi | 48 min | NNW 6G | 54°F | ||||
| 45168 | 17 mi | 48 min | NNE 3.9G | 52°F | 54°F | 1 ft | 30.08 | 46°F |
| SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI | 23 mi | 88 min | NE 2.9G | 53°F | 30.09 | |||
| HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI | 38 mi | 58 min | N 1.9G | 53°F | 59°F | 30.02 | 43°F | |
| 45029 | 47 mi | 48 min | 0G | 53°F | 53°F | 1 ft | 49°F | |
| MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN | 56 mi | 38 min | N 1G | 50°F | 30.05 | 48°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLWA SOUTH HAVEN AREA RGNL,MI | 12 sm | 12 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 46°F | 45°F | 93% | 30.06 | |
| KBEH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN RGNL,MI | 19 sm | 34 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 50°F | 45°F | 82% | 30.05 |
Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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