Marine Weather and Tides
7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly
|Sunrise 6:52AM||Sunset 8:39PM||Saturday August 18, 2018 12:25 PM EDT (16:25 UTC)||Moonrise 1:56PM||Moonset 12:00AM||Illumination 47%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, MIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus63 kgrr 181138|
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
738 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
Issued at 333 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
after the morning fog is gone, skies will become partly cloudy but
hazy due to smoke from distant forest fires. A back door cold
front in combination with the lake breeze will create scatted
showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Most area through
will remain rain free through the day. Highs will be in the lower
to mid 80s.
Tonight will be mostly clear with some area of fog toward morning.
Sunday will be partly sunny and warm with highs in the lower to
mid 80s once again. A storm system will move through the area
Monday night into Tuesday bringing widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Strong winds will follow the passage of the
system's cold front Tuesday and will likely result in marine
headlines. The rest of the week will be cooler relative to what we
have had nearly the entire month of august till then. Highs may
actually be in the 70s, even with the Sun out Wednesday.
Short term (today through Monday)
issued at 333 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
i am watching the fog potential for this morning and Sunday
morning plus there is a issue with afternoon convection today.
I contemplated a dense fog advisory but decided against it since
we are expecting the boundary layer wind to increase over the
next few hours as slightly cooler air moves in from the north.
Typically that limits how much fog we get. Sunday morning I do not
expect as much wind in the boundary layer so the threat for dense
fog is greater. The hi-res model visibility forecast show a more
extensive fog issue Sunday morning then this morning. For now i
have area of dense fog in the forecast early this morning and
areas of fog Sunday morning.
As for the convection issue, we have a back door cold front that
stalls over central lower michigan this afternoon. This can be
seen in the 925 mb and 850 mb temperature gradient near and north
of route 10. Also helping the cause for convection is the lake
breeze pushing against east surface winds this afternoon. There
is enough instability (most unstable CAPE will be near 1000j kg
this afternoon over most of lower michigan). All of the hi res
models show the convection too. So I have increased the chance to
near 50% near us-131 and route 10 for this afternoon.
Sunday should be quiet as the air will be drier. Monday should for
the most part be quiet too, as the convection with the next system
should mostly wait until Monday night.
Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 333 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
a low pressure system will strengthen as it moves northeast across
the great lakes region Monday night into Tuesday. Showers and
thunderstorms will develop along and ahead of the sfc low and cold
front Monday night into Tuesday.
Potential for severe wx remains a concern late Monday into Tuesday
given favorable deep layer shear and ample low level moisture ahead
of the cold front. The severe wx threat will likely be largely
contingent on how much instability develop. Unfavorable frontal
timing could also be another mitigating factor with regard to severe
It will turn breezy and cooler on the back side of the system late|
Tuesday which will result in marine impacts to include significant
wave heights building to around 6 to 8 feet. High pressure will then
build in for mid to late next week and bring fair wx with seasonable
Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 738 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
currently (1130z) we have widely variable conditions at our taf
sites. Klan has varied from 1 4sm fg to 2 1 2sm over the past 3
hour. Similar variable conditions prevail at jxn, btl, and azo.
There is an extensive and growing area of MVFR ifr ceiling
spreading south from northern lower mi but I believe these low
clouds and any fog will mix out by 15z.
There is the threat of afternoon convection, I put vcsh to cover
this. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible.
Tonight fog is expected again and this time the fog could be more
extensive as winds in the boundary layer are lighter.
Issued at 333 am edt Sat aug 18 2018
we will have to watch conditions in the near shore today as we
have a north wind behind the system and that typically means
higher winds and waves. The issue today though is the cold front
stalls near or north of route 10. The bigger issue will be Monday
into Tuesday with that storm moving through the area. Marine
headlines are likely for sure.
Issued at 154 pm edt Fri aug 17 2018
rainfall over the past 24 hours... Per mrms with gage correction...
has been more widespread than in recent days... With locations south
of grand rapids showing one tenth of an inch or less. More isolated
coverage of rainfall was indicated over northern sections of central
lower michigan... With some amounts in excess of one inch. The low
amounts to the south and the isolated nature of the heavy rain to
the north have produced little to no impact to area river levels.
Heavy rain of 4 to 6 inches fell across east central wisconsin since
Quite a bit of uncertainty as to the expected coverage and location
of rainfall this afternoon and evening. Atmosphere has plenty of
moisture to work with as precipitable water values in excess of 1.5
inches over most of lower michigan. Slow movement of showers and
thunderstorms will also aid in producing increased amounts in areas
that receive rainfall.
Threat for significant impacts to area rivers is highly conditional
over the next 48 hours... Mainly due to the recent dry conditions.
If precipitation can develop over a basin with appreciable areal
coverage and persist long enough for significant runoff to
develop... River stages could show significant rises. Combination of
factors results in a low confidence forecast for river impacts over
the next 48 hours.
Grr watches warnings advisories
short term... Wdm
long term... Laurens
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|SVNM4 - South Haven, MI||16 mi||26 min||N 6 G 7||73°F|
|45168||17 mi||26 min||N 7.8 G 9.7||73°F||77°F||2 ft||1016.4 hPa||64°F|
|SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI||23 mi||26 min||N 8 G 9.9||75°F||1017.6 hPa (+1.0)|
|45026 - St. Joseph, MI||33 mi||26 min||NNE 7.8 G 9.7||75°F||77°F||1 ft||1016.5 hPa (+0.4)||65°F|
|HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI||38 mi||44 min||NW 5.1 G 7||72°F||1016.1 hPa||72°F|
|45029||47 mi||26 min||N 5.8 G 7.8||71°F||77°F||2 ft||1016.4 hPa (+0.0)||64°F|
|MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN||56 mi||36 min||NNE 12 G 13||75°F||70°F|
Wind History for Holland, MI(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI||12 mi||31 min||NNW 6||10.00 mi||Fair||76°F||65°F||69%||1016.6 hPa|
|Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI||20 mi||33 min||Var 4||10.00 mi||Fair||77°F||66°F||69%||1016.2 hPa|
Wind History from LWA (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||Calm||SE||Calm||NW||NW||N||NW||N||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||NE||E||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm|
|2 days ago||SE||SE||SE||S||SE||SE||SE||S||S||SE||S||SE||Calm||SE||SE||E||E||Calm||Calm||Calm||E||Calm||E||SE |
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (12,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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