Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Lawrence, MI
April 29, 2024 2:46 AM EDT (06:46 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:37 AM Sunset 8:41 PM Moonrise 1:02 AM Moonset 9:30 AM |
LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 1005 Pm Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Rest of tonight - South winds around 15 knots. Partly cloudy through about 2 am then becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday - Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday - West winds 10 to 15 knots veering north 5 to 10 knots late in the day. Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Tuesday night - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots veering south toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday - South winds around 15 knots veering northwest late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming around 15 knots late in the day. Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 290212 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1012 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Cold Front brings rain/thunder on Monday
- Multiple Chances for Showers and Storms This Week
- Warm Temperatures Through The Saturday
UPDATE
Issued at 1007 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Minimal instability remains south of the warm front tonight.
Mainly showers are expected overnight but some thunder can't be ruled out. A steadier batch of showers is indicated by the 00z HRRR to arrive in the 06z-12z time frame. This activity is currently located across eastern Missouri but will head our way overnight. Looks like a wet morning commute especially along and west of a Big Rapids to Battle Creek line.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 352 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
- Cold Front brings rain/thunder on Monday
Extensive cloudiness into this afternoon has so far muted any strong updrafts, although a few showers and towering cu have managed to form in the past couple hours across the southern half of the forecast area. Cannot rule out a few strong storms into early evening with deep layer shear values of 25 to 30 knots.
Breaks in the clouds and surface heating could overcome the stabilizing influence of the extensive rain showers from last night into this morning.
For tonight, we will watch whatever showers/storms are able to develop but they should diminish after sunset as sfc based instability diminishes, then look for showers and storms pushing in ahead of the advancing cold front overnight into Monday morning. Expect the bulk of those showers to come through between roughly 8 AM and noon on Monday with the potential for some stronger storms across the eastern forecast area as the airmass destabilizes. Scattered showers persist along and behind the cold front into Monday evening before drying works in from the west.
- Multiple Chances for Showers and Storms This Week
Tuesday will be the best chance for dry weather in the long term portion of the forecast thanks to a surface ridge and upper-level ridging forecast to move overhead. Ensemble probabilities have trended downward with precipitation chances for the Tuesday night into Wednesday timeframe due to questions on low-level moisture even with a vorticity maximum swinging through. An isolated shower can't be ruled out north of M20 but given low confidence will leave the dry NBM PoPs as is.
Showers and Thunderstorms more likely Wednesday into Thursday as a surface low to our west lifts a warm frontal boundary across Lower Michigan. Thursday could be the most active day of the long term period as MUCAPE values increase near to above 1000 J/kg Thursday afternoon in both ECMWF and GFS guidance with a 30-40 knot low-level jet. A shortwave then swings through the area Thursday night into Friday driving a front through keeping rain chances going.
Predictability in the longwave pattern decreases notably into next weekend. While there are signals in cluster analysis and model guidance for a trough to setup over the central United States by next weekend, there is considerable variation in both the positioning and amplitude of this feature.
- Warm Temperatures Through The Saturday
Highs in the 60s are expected for Tuesday as a weak thermal trough quickly passes through the region. Temperatures warm for the mid to late work week into the 70s, with the 80s not out of the question, as southwest flow brings plenty of warm air into the Central Great Lakes.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 743 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
The first item of interest for aviation operations is a front that is dropping down from the NE through the KLAN and KGRR areas.
This front has really nothing with it, but there is a distinct wind shift from the South, to the NE. This should be in place for a couple of hours, and will likely not reach the other airports.
The next item is rain chances. There are some rain showers developing north of all of the SW Lower terminals. There may be a few spotty showers this evening into the overnight hours at the I-96 terminals, but nothing too widespread. Thunder can not be ruled out, but the chance seems low enough during the night to keep it out for now. The terminals are likely to stay VFR for most of the night. Some stratus to the NE of KLAN and KGRR should be held back.
There does look to be a more widespread area of showers that moves in from W to E starting around 10-12z. These showers are likely to bring conditions down to IFR at the I-96 sites closer to the wave.
The I-94 terminals are likely to drop down into the MVFR category.
These showers will move out then from 16-18z, and conditions will improve a category or two at each site.
A few showers, and maybe a storm will remain possible then from 18-00z. Coverage looks quite limited and uncertain, so for now will go with VCSH. As we near this time frame and certainty increases, fine tuning of this period will occur.
MARINE
Issued at 352 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Webcams and satellite do not show any extensive areas of dense fog over Lake Michigan this afternoon as winds have apparently been able to prevent its formation. We will keep mention of patchy fog in the marine zones for this evening.
Winds and waves increase Monday afternoon and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed although conditions looks marginal.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1012 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Cold Front brings rain/thunder on Monday
- Multiple Chances for Showers and Storms This Week
- Warm Temperatures Through The Saturday
UPDATE
Issued at 1007 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Minimal instability remains south of the warm front tonight.
Mainly showers are expected overnight but some thunder can't be ruled out. A steadier batch of showers is indicated by the 00z HRRR to arrive in the 06z-12z time frame. This activity is currently located across eastern Missouri but will head our way overnight. Looks like a wet morning commute especially along and west of a Big Rapids to Battle Creek line.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 352 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
- Cold Front brings rain/thunder on Monday
Extensive cloudiness into this afternoon has so far muted any strong updrafts, although a few showers and towering cu have managed to form in the past couple hours across the southern half of the forecast area. Cannot rule out a few strong storms into early evening with deep layer shear values of 25 to 30 knots.
Breaks in the clouds and surface heating could overcome the stabilizing influence of the extensive rain showers from last night into this morning.
For tonight, we will watch whatever showers/storms are able to develop but they should diminish after sunset as sfc based instability diminishes, then look for showers and storms pushing in ahead of the advancing cold front overnight into Monday morning. Expect the bulk of those showers to come through between roughly 8 AM and noon on Monday with the potential for some stronger storms across the eastern forecast area as the airmass destabilizes. Scattered showers persist along and behind the cold front into Monday evening before drying works in from the west.
- Multiple Chances for Showers and Storms This Week
Tuesday will be the best chance for dry weather in the long term portion of the forecast thanks to a surface ridge and upper-level ridging forecast to move overhead. Ensemble probabilities have trended downward with precipitation chances for the Tuesday night into Wednesday timeframe due to questions on low-level moisture even with a vorticity maximum swinging through. An isolated shower can't be ruled out north of M20 but given low confidence will leave the dry NBM PoPs as is.
Showers and Thunderstorms more likely Wednesday into Thursday as a surface low to our west lifts a warm frontal boundary across Lower Michigan. Thursday could be the most active day of the long term period as MUCAPE values increase near to above 1000 J/kg Thursday afternoon in both ECMWF and GFS guidance with a 30-40 knot low-level jet. A shortwave then swings through the area Thursday night into Friday driving a front through keeping rain chances going.
Predictability in the longwave pattern decreases notably into next weekend. While there are signals in cluster analysis and model guidance for a trough to setup over the central United States by next weekend, there is considerable variation in both the positioning and amplitude of this feature.
- Warm Temperatures Through The Saturday
Highs in the 60s are expected for Tuesday as a weak thermal trough quickly passes through the region. Temperatures warm for the mid to late work week into the 70s, with the 80s not out of the question, as southwest flow brings plenty of warm air into the Central Great Lakes.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 743 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
The first item of interest for aviation operations is a front that is dropping down from the NE through the KLAN and KGRR areas.
This front has really nothing with it, but there is a distinct wind shift from the South, to the NE. This should be in place for a couple of hours, and will likely not reach the other airports.
The next item is rain chances. There are some rain showers developing north of all of the SW Lower terminals. There may be a few spotty showers this evening into the overnight hours at the I-96 terminals, but nothing too widespread. Thunder can not be ruled out, but the chance seems low enough during the night to keep it out for now. The terminals are likely to stay VFR for most of the night. Some stratus to the NE of KLAN and KGRR should be held back.
There does look to be a more widespread area of showers that moves in from W to E starting around 10-12z. These showers are likely to bring conditions down to IFR at the I-96 sites closer to the wave.
The I-94 terminals are likely to drop down into the MVFR category.
These showers will move out then from 16-18z, and conditions will improve a category or two at each site.
A few showers, and maybe a storm will remain possible then from 18-00z. Coverage looks quite limited and uncertain, so for now will go with VCSH. As we near this time frame and certainty increases, fine tuning of this period will occur.
MARINE
Issued at 352 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024
Webcams and satellite do not show any extensive areas of dense fog over Lake Michigan this afternoon as winds have apparently been able to prevent its formation. We will keep mention of patchy fog in the marine zones for this evening.
Winds and waves increase Monday afternoon and a Small Craft Advisory may be needed although conditions looks marginal.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SVNM4 - South Haven, MI | 16 mi | 37 min | SSE 11G | 70°F | ||||
| 45168 | 17 mi | 37 min | S 9.7G | 60°F | 49°F | 2 ft | 29.88 | 53°F |
| SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI | 23 mi | 47 min | S 5.1G | 70°F | 29.90 | |||
| HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI | 38 mi | 47 min | ENE 9.9G | 62°F | 54°F | 29.84 | 60°F | |
| 45029 | 47 mi | 37 min | ESE 5.8G | 54°F | 47°F | 2 ft | 53°F | |
| MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN | 56 mi | 47 min | S 8.9G | 70°F | 29.85 | 59°F |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLWA SOUTH HAVEN AREA RGNL,MI | 12 sm | 11 min | SSE 03 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 68°F | 59°F | 73% | 29.88 | |
| KBEH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN RGNL,MI | 19 sm | 53 min | S 05 | 10 sm | Partly Cloudy | 72°F | 59°F | 65% | 29.88 |
Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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