Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 5:20PM Friday November 16, 2018 2:55 PM EST (19:55 UTC) Moonrise 2:26PMMoonset 12:24AM Illumination 63% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 1131 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of today..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy. Scattered rain showers. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers in the evening, then a chance of drizzle overnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet toward daybreak.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering north 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Drizzle and snow showers until midday, then a chance of drizzle in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday night..Northeast winds 10 to 20 knots. Cloudy. A chance of snow showers and drizzle in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
LMZ844 Expires:201811162215;;397788 FZUS53 KGRR 161631 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1131 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-162215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, MI
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location: 42.23, -86.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 161743
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1243 pm est Fri nov 16 2018
latest update...

aviation hydro

Synopsis
Issued at 326 am est Fri nov 16 2018
the area will see another quick burst of snow showers this morning
with another wave of low pressure moving through. Most areas should
see generally another inch or less of snowfall before it comes to an
end this afternoon.

Yet another burst of light snow will move through the area later
tonight and Saturday morning. This could bring another inch or two
of accumulating snow to much of the area. Some lake effect snow
showers will be possible Saturday afternoon into early Sunday. This
does not look like it will bring much accumulation.

Another period of lake effect snow looks to develop late Monday and
early Tuesday as one more cold surge moves in. We will then see
moderating temperatures mid-week into the thanksgiving day holiday.

Discussion (today through next Thursday)
issued at 326 am est Fri nov 16 2018
we will be holding on to the winter weather advisory as is this
morning for a couple of reasons. First, the snow and freezing
drizzle that fell last evening, along with temps at or below
freezing, will be keeping untreated roads a bit slick for this
morning's commute. The other reason we will be keeping the advisory
is the batch of snow showers that is moving toward the area, and
will be affecting the area during the morning rush this morning.

The snow showers this morning are associated with another strong
upper wave that will be affecting the area. This one will be diving
in from the wnw, in contrast to the one yesterday that rotated up
from the wsw. This one has good deep moisture with it, and should
get a boost from lake michigan. Over-lake instability is not
impressive with delta t S around 10c or so, but this should feed it
some. We are looking for a quick inch or so this morning. We should
dry out then after the wave moves through as upper ridging builds in.

The break in pcpn will be short lived once again, as we see another
streak of snow move through late tonight and Saturday morning. This
burst of snow will come via a short wave shearing out and the rrq of
an upper jet. We once again should get another inch or so of
accumulation. A little bit of lake effect will be possible behind
this wave, but the ingredients do not look good. The dgz is rather
thin Sat afternoon, and instability is marginal while ridging builds
in once again.

The next feature of note in this unsettled weather pattern will come
late Mon night and on Tue as a couple of decent short waves move
through. These short waves will bring another reinforcing shot of
cold air over the area, along with a 12-18 hr period of deep
moisture to support some additional lake effect. We have increased
the snow shower chances a bit as a result.

The pattern is expected to shift a bit once the short waves move out
on tue. The upper trough and NW flow pattern is expected to shift
east of the area gradually through thanksgiving. This occurs as the
upper ridge over the WRN states moves toward the area. This should
allow the area to dry out a bit. We will also see temps warm a bit
as the flow will finally be out of the south, instead of the
persistent nrly flow over the recent times.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Saturday afternoon)
issued at 1243 pm est Fri nov 16 2018
some areas of ifr conditions will linger across lower michigan
this afternoon but the trend will be for improvement with MVFR
expected later this afternoon and evening. Ifr will return late
tonight as light snow moves in from the west. West to northwest
winds could gust to 20 knots at times this afternoon with winds
decreasing this evening.

Marine issued at 326 am est Fri nov 16 2018
we will be keeping the small craft advisory as is for this forecast
package. Winds are now coming up along the lakeshore this morning
out ahead of the next wave that will move through today. It appears
that the peak winds should occur this afternoon with the cooler air
that will move in behind the wave this morning. Winds and waves
should drop off enough by 06z tonight to allow the advisory to
expire at that time. Winds and waves should then remain somewhat
limited until late sun.

Hydrology
Issued at 1243 pm est Fri nov 16 2018
there are no hydrologic concerns over the next week. Expected
amounts of rain and snow look light. Liquid equivalent of the
current snowpack is under one-half inch, and even when it all melts,
will not cause any notable rises on the rivers.

The threat for ice jams remains near zero through the next week as
daily average temperatures remain above 20 degrees. Warmer weather
is expected towards the end of next week.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Saturday for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Njj
discussion... Njj
aviation... Ostuno
hydrology... Hlo
marine... Njj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 16 mi46 min WNW 25 G 29 41°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 23 mi56 min WNW 15 G 21 40°F 1013.9 hPa (+1.4)
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 38 mi44 min WNW 23 G 28 41°F 1011.7 hPa32°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI12 mi59 minNW 12 G 1710.00 miOvercast41°F32°F71%1012.9 hPa
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI20 mi63 minWNW 9 G 2110.00 miOvercast40°F30°F70%1014 hPa

Wind History from LWA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmS5CalmS3S4S5S6S8SW6SW11
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1 day agoCalmNW4N3CalmNE4NE3SE3CalmE3E3E5SE5E5E6E5E7E3E4E4E4E4E7E5SE4
2 days agoNW10
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W7NW8NW7NW9NW6NW6NW7NW6NW6NW4NW7NW8NW4N3N3CalmCalmNE5NW6W4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.