Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 6:25PM Saturday February 23, 2019 9:40 AM EST (14:40 UTC) Moonrise 11:30PMMoonset 10:04AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 412 Pm Est Fri Jan 25 2019
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect through Saturday morning...
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely in the evening, then a slight chance of snow showers overnight. Heavy freezing spray through the night. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet toward daybreak.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of snow showers. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 feet. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshgrr) issuance for the season. The nshgrr will again be issued around april 1st 2019, or as conditions warrant.
LMZ844 Expires:201901260415;;919604 FZUS53 KGRR 252113 CCA NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast...corrected National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 412 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-260415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, MI
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location: 42.23, -86.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 231212
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
712 am est Sat feb 23 2019
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 330 am est Sat feb 23 2019
- strong and damaging winds likely on Sunday
- burst of lake effect snow Sunday afternoon into Sunday night
- chance for thunderstorms this evening
- small chances for some freezing rain this morning
- large waves and high water levels on lake michigan (see marine
section)

Discussion (today through next Friday)
issued at 330 am est Sat feb 23 2019
a strong low pressure system will move through the state of
michigan over the course of the next 24 to 36 hours. The low will
reach depths rival some of the deepest lows to move through our
area. By Sunday evening the low will be northeast of sault ste.

Marie at a depth of around 971 mb's. This is rival any of the
deeper lows of historic fall storms like the 1998 storm, the
fitzgerald storm of 1975 and the armistice day storm of 1940. Of
note is the fact that a 1040 mb high will be in place over the
plains states which will create a very strong pressure gradient
over the great lakes. A very strong rise fall surface pressure
couplet will swing across the forecast area, with the ecmwf
showing 6 hr pressure rises to our northeast in excess of 20mb's.

Bottom line, we have strong winds coming on Sunday. They should
sweep in right around daybreak and peak through the course of the
day. The strongest winds will occur between 700am and 700pm, but
strong winds will continue into Sunday night as well.

At this point based on coordination with apx, dtx and iwx have
decided to continue with the going watch. Decisions on the watch
transitioning into warnings or advisories will occur on the day
shift today. We do believe the biggest impacts will come from the
wind however, in terms of downed trees and tree limbs falling
onto power lines. Power outages can be expected.

In terms of winter impacts, it appears snowfall totals are going
to be on the lighter side. Lake effect snow is expected to develop
Sunday afternoon lasting into Sunday night. The deepest moisture
will be across central lower michigan, where our highest snowfall
totals will occur. We will likely see 1-3, maybe 4 inches across
interior portions of central lower, tapering to an inch or less
elsewhere across the area. There will be some periods of whiteouts
up towards big rapids, baldwin and evart Sunday evening. For the
most part though this looks to be a wind producer. We are
expecting winds to increase into the 25-40 mph range with gusts of
50-60 mph. The highest gusts will likely occur towards lake
michigan.

We have a chance of thunderstorms this evening into the overnight
hours ahead of the cold front. 900pm to 400am will be the time
frame when we may see a storm or two embedded in a larger rain
shield. We are not expecting severe storms, but with a 50-60 knot
low level jet a few damaging wind gusts are not out of the
question tonight.

We cannot rule out a little bit of freezing rain this morning,
especially across central lower michigan. Model consensus
continues to show a small chance but amounts have trended down
with each run. The ECMWF would indicate that the threat is minimal
with temps above freezing area wide by noon.

Otherwise, the flow turns zonal for the remainder of the forecast
period with some discrepancies between the ECMWF and the gfs. The
gfs has a couple of systems (tues Wed and fri) next week, whereas
the ecwmf is fairly quiet. We will likely keep colder air in place
at least into mid week behind the this weekend's system.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Sunday morning)
issued at 712 am est Sat feb 23 2019
aviation weather will deteriorate today asVFR conditions this
morning will be replaced by MVFR conditions this afternoon and
ifr this evening. Ceilings will steadily lower today with rain
developing. A more widespread rain will develop tonight, after
00z, with a few thunderstorms possible as well. Lifr ceilings will
develop tonight.

Stronger winds will develop late tonight and increase further
during the day on Sunday. Winds will sustain in the 25-35 knot
range with gusts towards 50 knots on Sunday. Llws is expected
tonight.

Marine
Issued at 330 am est Sat feb 23 2019
with storm force winds out on the lake, waves will reach large
heights on Sunday. Waves of 12 to 18 feet are likely. I would not
be surprised to see a few of the peak waves hit 20 feet towards
Sunday evening. Water levels are higher than normal already and
with a sustained westerly wind we may see some lakeshore flooding.

The flooding potential is two fold. First, we may see some
flooding into port towns, as water is forced through the pier
heads and into town. The high water levels from current levels +
the storm rise, will combine with rollers coming down the
channels which could lead to some flooding. The second concern is
where shore ice is lower or limited. Large waves will be able to
carry some force to the beach in these areas and create erosion at
the toe of the dune. Yesterday's modis satellite shot showed some
ice up and down the shore, but it not wide. Ice in the open waters
will be tore up quickly by the wave action. Any headline issuance
will be considered on the dayshift.

Hydrology
Issued at 300 pm est Fri feb 22 2019
a significant warmup as well as rainfall expected this weekend will
start the process of river levels rising again. Anytime we think
about rapid warmups and rainfall this time of year leads to the
logical question about flooding potential. The good news is that at
this point it looks like the rain totals will be low enough and the
warmup will be brief enough to avoid widespread and significant
flooding across our area over the next week. However, significant
rises are very likely on virtually all of our rivers, and by the
first half of next week many of our rivers will again be near
bankfull. We will keep a close eye on forecast trends, but right now
it looks like our rivers should escape without major issues.

The one fly in the ointment is the renewed threat of ice jams on
some of our rivers. The last big rise on our rivers a few weeks ago
destroyed a lot of the river ice, which will now work to our
advantage (you can't have an ice jam without ice). Limited amounts
of new ice have formed on parts of the rivers, but most of our
rivers remain mostly ice-free at this time. However, there are some
rivers that still have solid ice covering them, including parts of
the grand river (portland, grand rapids area, and
eastmanville robinson township). These areas will be the focus for
potential ice jam formation over the next week, and should be
watched closely.

Once the upcoming warm and windy weather passes, temperatures will
again plunge for next week, which will limit additional snowmelt and
start to give the rivers a chance to recover from all the new
water.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Winter storm watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
for miz037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

Synopsis... Duke
discussion... Duke
aviation... Duke
marine... Duke
hydrology... Amd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 16 mi41 min E 9.9 G 14 35°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 23 mi41 min SW 1 G 9.9 36°F 1018.3 hPa (-2.4)
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 38 mi41 min E 14 G 17 32°F 33°F1018.4 hPa (-2.0)8°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 56 mi41 min ESE 13 G 20 37°F 25°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI12 mi45 minESE 11 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F24°F65%1019 hPa
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI20 mi48 minESE 13 G 218.00 miOvercast36°F25°F64%1018.9 hPa

Wind History from LWA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE6E5SE3E3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6E7E5E7E6E8SE7E7E9SE12
G16
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1 day agoW13
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W6--NW5NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE17
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.