Monday, May27, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lawrence, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:09AMSunset 9:09PM Monday May 27, 2019 7:11 AM EDT (11:11 UTC) Moonrise 2:08AMMoonset 1:13PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 405 Am Edt Mon May 27 2019
Early this morning..Northeast winds around 5 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots veering southwest toward daybreak. Rain showers with Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..West winds around 15 knots veering northwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots veering east 10 to 15 knots toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots veering southwest. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds around 10 knots veering northwest. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Friday..Northeast winds around 10 knots backing north. Mostly Sunny. Waves less than 1 foot.
LMZ844 Expires:201905272000;;532602 FZUS53 KGRR 270806 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 405 AM EDT Mon May 27 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ844-272000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lawrence, MI
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location: 42.23, -86.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 270730
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
330 am edt Mon may 27 2019
latest update...

synopsis discussion marine hydro

Synopsis
Issued at 328 am edt Mon may 27 2019
- surface wave will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area by
late afternoon. Locally heavy rain is possible and strong storms
are possible south of i-96 this evening.

- thunderstorms possible i-69 area Tuesday with the cold front.

- additional showers and thunderstorms possible Wednesday into
Thursday as main system comes out into this area
- some fog over the southeast and south central CWA this morning
should be gone by midday

Discussion (today through next Sunday)
issued at 328 am edt Mon may 27 2019
there is an area of fog, which is locally dense in the i-69 area
moving westward as I write this. We are thinking it will not
become extensive enough for a fog advisory but we will continue
to monitor it.

I am concerned about this evening for heavy rain and stronger
thunderstorms. The models continue to trend toward a much better
formed surface low (ecmwf,gfs, nam) for tonight compared to 24
hours ago when all of those models have only a weak surface wave
tonight. Having this stronger surface system would result in much
better surface forcing as well as much better upper forcing too.

I see two areas of enhanced precipitation with this system. First
is the deformation zone, northern jet entrance region lift area
over northern lower and upper michigan. That area has strong
isentropic ascent (40 knots) helping the cause and good mid level
f-gen. Of more concern to us the push over the warm front. This
has a strong low level jet feature, and effect deep layer shear
in the 30 to 40 knot range south of i-96. However at this point
the surface front does not get into michigan. So that would
suggest elevated storms with the severe storms just south of our
cwa. This is shown nicely by the latest SPC convective outlook
with our southern CWA in marginal while the enhanced is just
south of this area. We will have to watch this closely, if the
warm front gets farther north we could have severe storms this
evening.

The cold front trailing the surface wave may trigger thunderstorms
in the i-69 area Tuesday afternoon. It should be noted that the
stronger surface wave pulls down colder air so highs may stay in
the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.

We will be also watching when that upper low the developed in the
southwest CONUS shears out. This system will likely send at least
a surface wave through this area later Tuesday into Wednesday.

Then we have to see how the main upper low comes out of the
southwestern conus. It may trigger a more significant severe storm
event later Wednesday or Thursday.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 141 am edt Mon may 27 2019
some dense fog can be expected through 12z or so at jxn. It's
possible that quarter mile visibilities could creep west to
btl azo but that is less certain. The southern TAF sites received
some rainfall Sunday that the northern sites didn't receive and
we're seeing the result in current obs.

ExpectVFR during the daylight hours. But showers storms are in
the forecast after 00z.

Marine
Issued at 328 am edt Mon may 27 2019
convection is likely the most significant marine issue as we do
not get enough wind in the next 3 days to cause a sca.

Hydrology
Issued at 342 pm edt Sun may 26 2019
Monday afternoon into Tuesday still look to be the prime opportunity
for more than an inch of additional rain as a round of showers and
thunderstorms move through the region. Additional rain will then be
possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rivers are still expected to
stay below flood stage at this time, however we may need to monitor
some areas especially along the muskegon basin as they may crest
closest to minor flood stage should we see trends for higher
rainfall totals. Regardless, ponding of water will be possible in
poor drainage areas with locally heavy rainfall.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Synopsis... Wdm
discussion... Wdm
aviation... 04
hydrology... Honor
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 16 mi42 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 49°F
45168 17 mi32 min S 1.9 G 3.9 50°F 53°F1 ft1018.3 hPa44°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 23 mi72 min ESE 1 G 2.9 51°F 1018.6 hPa (+0.0)
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 33 mi32 min Calm G 0 54°F 57°F1 ft1018.1 hPa50°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 38 mi60 min E 1.9 G 2.9 50°F 60°F1017 hPa48°F
45029 47 mi32 min SSE 3.9 G 3.9 49°F 51°F1018.1 hPa43°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 56 mi42 min E 1.9 G 1.9 53°F 52°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI12 mi16 minN 010.00 miFair45°F43°F95%1017.9 hPa
Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI20 mi19 minE 37.00 miFair46°F44°F93%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from LWA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmW9NW6NW4CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW11
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SW8SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W3W7NW4Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSE4SE5SE3CalmCalmE5
G14
SE7SE7
G16
SE10SE5SE4E5SE6SE6S5S5SE5S7S6S6SW12
G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.