Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Weymouth Town, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 7:39PM Saturday August 19, 2017 1:42 AM EDT (05:42 UTC) Moonrise 3:22AMMoonset 6:14PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 116 Am Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming E around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will approach the waters from the west tonight, prompting showers and scattered Thunderstorms with areas of fog. The front will push thru the waters Saturday, bringing mainly dry conditions for the day. High pressure will return with dry weather during Saturday night through Tuesday. A cold front will then approach the waters midweek. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Weymouth Town city, MA
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location: 42.24, -70.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 190535
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
135 am edt Sat aug 19 2017

Synopsis
Widespread rain with embedded heavier showers and thunderstorms
overnight. Main threat of localized flooding. Drying out into
Saturday ahead of a cold front which moves offshore Saturday
night. High pressure returns with fair seasonable weather Sunday
through Tuesday. Another cold front sweeps through new england
Wednesday, followed by more dry weather Thursday into Friday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
10 pm update...

upstream convection, predominantly across the mid atlantic
earlier this evening usurped a lot of the available
moisture unstable air within the warm sector, as warm front
continues to slowly pivot offshore. Still with high
pwats k-indices, enough moisture still left to work with llj
which is increasing mainly across SE ma. This is likely to be
the focus for the remainder of the night except some pop-up
shra tsra along the advancing cold front which is moving into
the hudson valley at the time of this update. This will be slow,
and likely not even offshore by 12z, hence the continued risk
for shra tsra through the overnight hours. However, the
dwindling instability with its typical diurnal trend, combined
with the core LLJ shifting E should allow this risk to wane
through the morning. Pop update reflects this. Otherwise, very
humid tonight, as temps dwpts will remain in the upper 60s and
low 70s.

Previous discussion follows...

* overview (4p update)...

ahead of a deep low center over the N great lakes region, tropical
moisture is surging n, converging and over-running along a warm
frontal boundary presently hung up along the e-waters immediately
offshore of new england as discerned via h925-85 SPC mesoanalysis.

Meanwhile the atmosphere has destabilized ahead of a pre-frontal
trough where partial clearing has occurred in an area of higher
surface dewpoints, deeper tropical moisture, and modest shear. All
of this activity is forecast to converge over S E new england and
adjacent waters this evening and overnight out ahead of a surface
cold front and attendant h5-7 mid-level dry punch. The h925-85 low
level jet intensifying per isallobaric response out ahead of the mid-
upper level ridge over the NW atlantic, maintaining convection and
heavy rain threats N E through Saturday morning prior to cold frontal
passage. Drying out NW to SE as winds turn westerly. Any dense fog
that develops during the overnight period as it is expected with
the very humid, muggy, moist airmass, eroding. Lows around the low
70s.

* discussion (4p update)...

straight-forward, continued forecast of widespread rain with embedded
heavier downpours and thunderstorms. Two things of continued concern:
1.) localized flooding, and 2.) strong to severe storms.

Near-term high-res guidance such as the hrrr is preferred. However,
18.12z NAM and WRF models are only partially considered given poor
initialization.

Localized flooding...

while all of S new england remains under threat, higher confidence
of potential impacts is across S E ma and ct and all of ri. Expect
thunderstorms over SW pa into nj to advect N E with the mean wind,
maintained and fueled by an inflow of low-level h925-85 tropical
moisture. A measure of instability running up against the warm
front still lingering along the immediate E waters as discerned
via h925-85 SPC mesoanalysis, and out ahead of a sweeping cold
front and mid-level dry punch, a convergence of moisture leading
to heavy rain is progged. This along with high freezing level
heights and h85 dewpoints well in excess of +12c (up to +17c),
efficient warm-rain processes signaled .As we have seen already
with prior heavy showers storms, rainfall rates of around 1-2
inches per hours are easily possible. Quick dousing amounts up
to 3 inches within 2 hours is not out of the question. The
propensity of flash flooding is there but thinking isolated,
localized rather than widespread. Will forego any headlines at
this point and focus on short-fused products.

Strong to severe storms...

watching closely as to whether we need to coordinate with SPC on
a severe thunderstorm watch for portions of S new england. Per
spc mesoanalysis, instability has manifested across S W ma and
ct. However marginal, the better environment still resides well
s W where partial clearing has allowed for better low-level lapse
rates and subsequent destabilization which has resulted in present,
ongoing convection. Still convinced that ongoing activity presently
is going to rob the environment to the n. However, not ignoring the
low lcls, high shear, and measure of instability across the region.

While the greater threat is S w, still need to maintain a watch for
portions of our area. Somewhat banking on the convection over se
pa and nj as it advects N E across SE areas of new england to have
some strong, possibly severe elements. Heavy rain and frequent
lightning the main threats, but gusty winds also possible.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Sunday
Not a washout. Widespread rain with embedded heavier showers,
possibly a thunderstorms, lingers over SE ma during the morning
period, eroding with the influx of mid-level h5-7 drier air
despite the cold front lagged. This is easily evident within the
k-indices, contrary to other convective parameters such as cape.

Should see gradual clearing across the region for a brief period
before comma-wrap moisture sweeps through the region behind the
low filling back in the dry punch. Some scattered cumulus through
the day, however the cyclonic flow and some favorable mid level
lapse rates with a weak cold pool aloft, could see some shower
activity over the N W ma and ct overnight by which point the
surface cold front will have pushed offshore, winds becoming w
and turning light as high pressure builds into the region of the
oh river valley behind the low.

Lower surface dewpoints during the day but still out ahead of
the cold front, should turn a bit more comfortable with highs
into the mid to upper 80s. Clouds
lingering overnight with the
comma-low, may hamper what might be a favorable night of
radiational cooling given light winds. Lows back down into the
60s.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Much of this period will feature a mid level ridge across the
southern usa. For our neck of the woods, nearly zonal flow should
prevail through early next week. Expecting a potent mid level trough
to get close to our region towards late next week.

Latest guidance suite is in reasonable agreement with the overall
pattern, with the typical detail differences. Favoring a consensus
blend to smooth over the less predictable details.

Thinking heat and humidity slowly builds from Sunday on, peaking
Wednesday before a cold front moves through our region. Temperatures
during this period should be near to above normal. Once this cold
front passes Wednesday night, expecting near to below normal
temperatures which much more comfortable humidity levels.

Increasing risk for showers and possible thunderstorms Tuesday night
into Wednesday, otherwise mainly dry much of next week.

Aviation 05z Saturday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ...

through 15z... Moderate confidence.

Mix of ifr MVFR with the continuation of low CIGS and areas of
fog. After sunrise, conditions will gradually improve especially
across W ma ct, but this may take until mid morning to fully
break out to more widespreadVFR. Shra tsra mainly CAPE islands
continue through 10z this morning, then shift offshore. Ifr
remains through that area through 15z. Winds gradually shift to
w-sw and recede.

After 15z through tonight... Moderate confidence.

Gradual improvement toVFR all terminals except for nantucket,
which may see ifr MVFR conditions linger in a mix of low cigs
and fog, but then mainly just low CIGS late this afternoon and
evening. Some improvement possible there, so leaned somewhat
optimistic in TAF for ack. Winds mainly w-sw, with sea breezes
possible E coast.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence.

Mix of ifr this morning will gradually give way to improvement
toVFR especially after 12z. Occasional lifr until winds shift
mainly to the w, through 10z this morning. Sea breeze possible
but with a late start.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence.

MVFR-ifr through 10-12z but improvement toVFR thereafter.

Timing may be off a bit in taf.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ...

Sunday through Tuesday... High confidence.

Vfr. Areas of ifr in early morning fog low clouds, then improving
toVFR by mid morning each day.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

MainlyVFR. Scattered MVFR is shra tsra, especially Wednesday.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

S winds will be on the increase, gusting up to 30 kts across
the S SE waters. Small craft advisory remain as winds will
result in heightened seas up around 5 feet.

Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms sweeping SW to NE across
the waters tonight. Will likely be some visibility restrictions.

Conditions improving Saturday into Saturday night as a cold
front sweeps the waters late in the period with winds turning w.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ...

Sunday through Tuesday... High confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters. Winds remain 20 knots or less,
and seas 4 feet or less.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... Moderate confidence. Increasing
southwest winds ahead of a cold front should lead to rough seas
across the outer coastal waters, especially on the southern coastal
waters. There may be a few gusts to 25 kt on Wednesday, too.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 9 am edt this morning for
anz231>234.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for anz235-
237.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for anz250-
254.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for anz255-
256.

Synopsis... Belk sipprell
near term... Doody sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk doody
marine... Belk sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 9 mi42 min 75°F 1007.2 hPa (-1.3)
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 18 mi52 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 69°F 67°F2 ft1008.6 hPa (-0.6)
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 29 mi98 min S 9.7 G 12 69°F 66°F3 ft1008.7 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 38 mi42 min WSW 6 G 8.9 76°F 72°F1007.5 hPa (-1.5)
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 39 mi42 min SSW 17 G 19 75°F 1007.6 hPa (-1.4)
PVDR1 39 mi42 min SW 6 G 8 76°F 1008.2 hPa (-1.4)74°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 39 mi42 min 74°F 73°F1009.4 hPa (-1.3)
FRXM3 39 mi42 min 74°F 73°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 42 mi42 min SSW 12 G 15 74°F 72°F1008.2 hPa (-1.5)
44090 43 mi38 min 69°F1 ft
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 46 mi42 min WSW 7 G 11 74°F 1008.5 hPa (-1.4)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 46 mi57 min NNW 8.9 74°F 1009 hPa74°F
PRUR1 48 mi42 min 74°F 73°F

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
East Milton, MA8 mi46 minS 8 mi73°F72°F96%1009.4 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA10 mi48 minS 52.00 miFog/Mist74°F73°F100%1008.1 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA12 mi49 minS 410.00 miOvercast77°F75°F94%1008.1 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA18 mi47 minVar 66.00 miFog/Mist75°F75°F100%1008.8 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA24 mi50 minSSW 76.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist75°F72°F90%1008.5 hPa
Bedford, Hanscom Field, MA24 mi46 minN 010.00 miOvercast75°F72°F90%1008.7 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA24 mi49 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist74°F73°F100%1007.5 hPa

Wind History from BOS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S6S6SE3S7S5SE7S8SE7S10S11--S17
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1 day agoN8NW8NW7NW6NW4W5W6NW7--CalmS5SW7W7
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W9SW9W96W8S8S8S7SW8SW4
2 days agoSW8SW7SW7S6SW7W6NW6NW10NW10N11
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NW13N8N6N5N9NW7N9

Tide / Current Tables for Weymouth Fore River Bridge, Massachusetts
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Weymouth Fore River Bridge
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Sat -- 03:22 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:31 AM EDT     -0.62 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:48 AM EDT     9.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:46 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:06 PM EDT     11.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
6.741.3-0.4-0.40.82.85.37.79.49.897.352.50.60.11.23.25.78.410.511.410.8

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:55 AM EDT     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:15 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:29 AM EDT     1.22 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:27 PM EDT     -1.17 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:36 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:14 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:48 PM EDT     1.25 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:28 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.2-1.3-1.1-0.30.71.11.21.20.80.1-0.5-0.8-1.1-1.2-1.1-0.60.41.11.21.210.3-0.3-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.