Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Weymouth Town, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 7:01PM Thursday March 23, 2017 2:08 AM EDT (06:08 UTC) Moonrise 4:03AMMoonset 2:17PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 117 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am edt this morning...
Rest of tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft...except 3 to 5 ft at the outer harbor entrance.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Becoming W around 5 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of rain.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of rain, sleet and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Rain and sleet likely.
Mon..E winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain and sleet likely.
Mon night..NE winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 117 Am Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres slowly builds over the waters through Thu and will move E of the waters Fri. Cold front will pass across the waters from the N on Sat...and stay S of the waters on Sunday. Low pres will cross the southern waters on Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Weymouth Town, MA
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location: 42.24, -70.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 230254
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1054 pm edt Wed mar 22 2017

Synopsis
Blustery and very cold conditions will tonight will gradually
moderate Thursday with less wind. High pressure will move off
the eastern seaboard on Friday, bringing windy and milder
conditions. A cold front will push south across the region
Saturday, then stall south of new england early next week. Weak
low pressure waves forecast to push along this front, with the
potential for periods of rain and mixed precipitation.

Near term /until 6 am Thursday morning/
1054 pm update...

winds continue to slowly diminish late this evening. Clear and
dry, so mainly tweaked temperatures and winds to reflect
observed trends.

735 pm update...

winds have diminished over the last few hours, so have cancelled
the remaining wind advisory for ri/central and eastern mass.

Will still see some gusts up to 30-40 mph through around
midnight, with the highest gusts along the immediate E coast of
mass, CAPE cod and the islands.

Skies were mainly clear at 23z, except for only a few mid level
clouds lingering near the coast. Temperatures have fallen
steadily through the day, down to the 20s across the region, but
feels much colder with the gusty winds.

Winds will continue to slowly diminish tonight as pressure
gradient slowly relaxes. Strong cold air advection will also
continue, with h85 temps dropping to -14c to -18c overnight.

Expect temps down to the teens across most areas, ranging to
20-25 on CAPE cod and the islands by around midnight.

Have updated near term forecast to bring conditions current.

Previous discussion...

mid level trof axis moves east of new eng this evening, as one
last shortwave rotates through the NW flow. Column is very dry
so mainly clear skies tonight and very cold. Used a blend of
mos and model temps for lows tonight which yields 5 to 15
degrees across much of sne. Wind chills single numbers above
and below zero.

Short term /6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night/
Thursday...

still some gusty winds in the morning along the coast but trend
will be for diminishing wind in the afternoon as high pres
builds east into new eng. Under sunny skies, temps will
moderate as low and mid level temps rise, with highs reaching
mid/upper 30s which is still well below normal.

Thursday night...

high pres shifts south of new eng with developing SW flow warm
advection yielding increasing mid/high clouds. There should be a
window for good radiational cooling in the evening before
clouds thicken which will result in a cold night. Lows ranging
from mid/upper teens to mid 20s across the region with temps
stabilizing or slowly rising late.

Long term /Friday through Wednesday/
Highlights...

* light snow early Friday changes to rain as temps rise to the
lower-mid 40s
* mild temps on Saturday along with periods of light rain
* low confidence Sunday-Tuesday with unsettled weather possible at
times with some rain, sleet and/or snow possible
* conditions may slowly improve during Wednesday, but low confidence
continues
overview...

12z model suite and ensembles continue to signal general agreement
of a cold frontal passage during Saturday. Beyond this, a lot of
questions, first where this front stalls as it becomes parallel to
mid level northern stream steering flow. To complicate things, h5
cutoff low pressure over then central mississippi valley late
Saturday is forecast to open up and move along into the northern
stream flow while large high pressure pushes across central and
eastern canada keeping a cold air flow working southward.

Much will depend how far N the front stalls, and the timing of weak
low pressure waves that will move along this front. At this point,
looks like we will see periods of rain this weekend, with some
possible mixed precipitation during the nighttime hours as
temps fall close to or below freezing. Best chance for any
sleet/snow and/or freezing rain looks to occur main N of the
mass pike each night.

12z models signaling the best shot for better organized precip with
be with the approaching open h5 wave late Mon into tue. Models
showing general agreement on features, but exact timing and track
still very much in question. Could also see a better chance for
mixed precip Mon night further S with the established e-ne wind
flow, mainly for areas away from the coast. Lots of uncertainty
continues.

At this point, may see some improving conditions starting next
Wednesday, but remains a difficult call this far out.

Details...

Friday... Moderate confidence.

As large high pressure moves off the eastern seaboard Friday,
expect SW winds to bring milder temperatures across the region.

An approaching cold front will cause increasing pressure
gradient, along with SW low level jet up to 40-45 kt from h95
thru h9 moves across. While best ll mixing is limited to 925
hpa, could still see some gusts up to around 30 kt during fri
afternoon, mainly from the boston-providence corridor SE to cape
cod and the islands.

Approaching cold front will bring the threat of light snow by
mid to late morning Friday, then will quickly mixing with sleet
and snow before changing to rain by early afternoon. With the
good SW wind flow in place, should see temps rise quickly. At
this point, freezing rain remains out of the forecast, but will
continue to monitor this aspect carefully. Temps should reach
the lower-mid 40s by late in the day, though a few spots across
the higher terrain may remain below 40 but likely above
freezing, at least at this point.

By Friday night, most of the precip should dissipate or remain
across northern new england, but still can not rule out the
threat for spotty light rain. Noting a non-diurnal temp trend
due to the milder air in place ahead of the approaching cold
front. Looks like front should push into the region after 05z-
06z. Current thinking suggests that temps should remain in the
35-40 degree range through the night.

Saturday-Saturday night... Moderate confidence.

Will see mild temps on sat, actually close to seasonal normals
as warm air advection remains in place on w-sw winds. Looks like
the front should push off the S coast between mid morning to
midday on Saturday as winds start to shift to w-nw. Expect highs
in the mid- upper 40s along the N mass border, ranging to the
mid 50s across N ct/ri/se mass, though would not be surprised to
see readings a few degrees milder before beginning to fall
during Sat afternoon. Short range models suggest that patchy
light rain may redevelop during the day and continue into sat
night.

Colder air works in Sat night as winds become light northerly.

Weak low pres wave moves in, bringing another shot of light
precip. As the colder air filters in, looks like a wintry mix
could develop even as far S as the S coast after midnight. Lots
of uncertainty remains due to timing of the colder air and the
onset of precip, as well as how far south this will develop.

Will monitor this closely.

Sunday into Wednesday... Low confidence.

General forecast agreement continues during this timeframe, but
the big problem is the specific details for each day's
forecast. Will need to see how each piece of the puzzle fits in,
such as the mid mississippi upper low and how quickly it will
weaken and move NE in the northern stream flow, plus timing the
precip with each weak short wave. Another factor will be the
high over eastern canada and how it will interact with these
lows as well as the intrusion of colder air affecting ptype
during each night and whether it will linger into the daytime
hours.

A lot to consider, especially with the thermal patterns each
day. At this point, could see mixed precip into Sunday morning,
then again Sunday night into Monday. Have kept rather general
mixed bag of precip each nighttime period for now, and possibly
into the morning both Sunday and Monday. However, this could all
change with the next forecast package.

Aviation /03z Thursday through Monday/
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Thursday night/... High confidence.

Vfr. NW gusts to 30-40 kt, mainly along the immediate E coastal
terminals, then will gradually diminish but still gusts to 25 kt
overnight. NW wind gusts to 20 kt Thu becoming light Thu night.

Kbos taf... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in taf.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday... Moderate confidence. MainlyVFR. Patchy MVFR
cigs/vsbys in -sn, changing over to -ra by around midday. May
see some sleet early Fri across western terminals. Light rain
ends from s-n Fri night, but may linger across E slopes of the
berkshires. SW winds gusting up to 25-30 kt, highest along the
coast and higher terrain, lingering into Friday night across
cape cod and the islands before diminishing around midnight.

MVFR CIGS linger Fri night across higher terrain.

Saturday and Sunday... Low to moderate confidence. Periods of
light rain/showers through the weekend. May see mixed
sleet/freezing rain push across portions of the region Saturday
night into Sunday. Exact placement and timing in question.

Sunday night-Monday... Low confidence. Depending upon how far s
the colder air works in, could see areas of rain, sleet and
freezing rain Sun night into Mon morning which may linger most
of Mon across the higher terrain. Patchy MVFR cigs/vsbys mainly
at night/early morning hours.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Thursday night/... High confidence.

Began the process of converting gale warnings to small craft
advisories. More such conversions expected overnight, with the
next set around midnight.

Tonight... Nw gales continue into the evening before gradually
diminishing from west to east. Freezing spray will also
continue. Seas building to 12-15 ft over outer waters east of
cape cod this evening before slowly subsiding.

Thursday... Still gusty NW winds in the morning with gusts 25-30
kt diminishing a bit in the afternoon. Freezing spray will
subside in the afternoon. Hazardous seas over outer waters but
gradually subsiding.

Thursday night... Diminishing NW winds becoming light sw
overnight. Seas subsiding below 5 ft over outer waters.

Outlook /Friday through Monday/...

Friday... Moderate confidence. SW wind gusts up to 25-30 kt,
shifting to W Fri night as cold front passes. Small crafts
likely. Low chance for gale force gusts on the eastern outer
waters Fri afternoon/evening prior to frontal passage.

Visibility restrictions possible in patchy light rain Fri into
fri night.

Saturday... Moderate confidence. Leftover small crafts as w
winds gust to 25 kt early sat, then should diminish. Light rain
redevelops as cold front pushes off the coast with some
visibility restrictions. May see mix of sleet and snow Sat night
as colder air works in on NE winds.

Sunday-Monday... Low confidence. Depending upon where the front
stalls, may see more periods of rain during each day, possibly
mixing with sleet and snow across the eastern waters Sun night.

E-ne winds gusting to 25-30 kt so small crafts may be needed
again.

Climate
Just sent out the latest cli messages for our four long term
climate sites. Looks like the record mins and record cold max
temps will remain intact for today.

Record lows for today:
boston (bos) 8/1885, forecast low of 20
hartford (bdl) 12/1934, forecast low of 19
providence (pvd) 15/1988, forecast low of 20
worcester (orh) 8/1988, forecast low of 14
record cold highs for today:
boston (bos) 24/1885, high was 43 set at 259 am
hartford (bdl) 29/1960, high was 38 set at 251 am
providence (pvd) 28/1914, high was 42 set at 1207 am
worcester (orh) 25/2002, high was 36 set at 1234 am
record lows for Thursday, march 23:
boston (bos) 6/1934
hartford (bdl) 9/1934
providence (pvd) 8/1934
worcester (orh) 4/1934

Box watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Freezing spray advisory until 11 am edt Thursday for
anz231>235-250-251-254>256.

Gale warning until 2 am edt Thursday for anz231-232-251-255.

Gale warning until midnight edt tonight for anz230-233-234.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Thursday for anz236.

Small craft advisory until 10 am edt Thursday for anz235-237.

Gale warning until 5 am edt Thursday for anz250-254.

Small craft advisory until noon edt Thursday for anz256.

Synopsis... Kjc/evt
near term... Belk/kjc/evt
short term... Kjc
long term... Evt
aviation... Kjc/evt
marine... Belk/kjc/evt
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 9 mi50 min 19°F 37°F1027.5 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 18 mi78 min NW 29 G 37 21°F 40°F7 ft1026 hPa (+2.5)
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 29 mi124 min NW 29 G 37 21°F 39°F6 ft1024.6 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 38 mi50 min N 12 G 17 20°F 39°F1027.8 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 39 mi50 min 21°F 40°F1028.6 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 39 mi50 min NNW 16 G 22 22°F 1028.6 hPa
PVDR1 39 mi50 min NNW 13 G 21 20°F 1028.1 hPa-5°F
FRXM3 39 mi50 min 22°F -0°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 42 mi50 min NW 19 G 28 22°F 38°F1028.1 hPa
44090 43 mi154 min 36°F10 ft
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 46 mi50 min N 12 G 24 20°F 1029.3 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 46 mi83 min N 14 21°F 1028 hPa-4°F

Wind History for Providence, RI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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N7
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NW24
G32
N18
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NW26
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N6
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NE11
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G7

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
East Milton, MA8 mi14 minNW 14 G 22 mi14°F-6°F40%1028.1 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA10 mi14 minNW 17 G 2410.00 miFair19°F-4°F36%1028.1 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA12 mi15 minNW 910.00 miFair19°F-5°F34%1028.5 hPa
Marshfield Airport, MA18 mi13 minNW 10 G 2210.00 miFair19°F-4°F35%1027.4 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA24 mi16 minNW 9 G 1710.00 miFair19°F-7°F31%1028 hPa
Bedford, Hanscom Field, MA24 mi12 minNW 7 G 1610.00 miFair16°F-6°F37%1029.6 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA24 mi15 minNNW 1010.00 miFair17°F-2°F41%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from MQE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW13W15
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1 day agoNW12NW10NW11NW9NW7W6W6NW5NW53SW6SW6SW7W10
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2 days agoN13
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NW9NW7
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G16
N7N8NW8NW8NW9NW12NW12NW10

Tide / Current Tables for Weymouth Fore River Bridge, Massachusetts
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Weymouth Fore River Bridge
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Thu -- 02:01 AM EDT     1.84 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:20 AM EDT     9.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:40 PM EDT     1.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:00 PM EDT     8.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.92.51.82.43.656.68.29.18.97.96.44.62.81.41.223.24.86.688.58.16.9

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EDT     -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:05 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:22 AM EDT     0.93 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:35 PM EDT     -1.09 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:36 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:57 PM EDT     1.01 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.9-0.8-0.10.70.90.90.90.5-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.9-1.1-1.1-0.50.30.9110.80.3-0.2-0.6-0.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.