Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mayville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:55PM Saturday November 17, 2018 1:59 PM EST (18:59 UTC) Moonrise 2:27PMMoonset 12:56AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1238 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm est...
This afternoon..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers late. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast and diminishing to less than 10 knots overnight. A chance of snow and rain showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of snow showers in the morning, then light snow likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. Snow showers likely Monday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
LEZ040 Expires:201811172215;;450063 FZUS51 KBUF 171738 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1238 PM EST Sat Nov 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-172215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayville, NY
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location: 42.25, -79.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 171832
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
132 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
A weak cold front will drop across the region this evening with some
light snow showers, otherwise the night will be dry. Weak low
pressure will pass to our south on Sunday bringing some light snow
to the southern tier. There will be some light snow showers during
the first half of next week, but high pressure and dry weather will
return for thanksgiving.

Near term through tonight
For the remainder of this afternoon, plentiful low moisture will
result in persistent cloud cover and cool temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s. A weak cold front will approach from the north and
quickly move across the region through this evening. This will
result in a brief increase in lake enhanced snow showers with this
front, but any accumulation will be light. Showers may be mixed with
rain at times this afternoon.

Drier boundary layer air will build in behind the front late this
evening and tonight. This may result in a brief clearing before mid
and high clouds spreading in advance of the next system reach the
area. Mesoscale guidance suggests a narrow band of lake effect snow
showers may briefly develop southeast of lake ontario late tonight.

Localized accumulations of an inch or two cannot be ruled out, but
the vast majority of the forecast area will be dry from late evening
on. Low temperatures tonight will be in the teens east of lake
ontario, and in the low to mid 20s elsewhere.

Short term Sunday through Monday
Sunday morning some very limited lake effect may still be ongoing at
the southeast corner of lake ontario from eastern wayne to
southwestern oswego counties. Any scattered flurries or light snow
showers from this will end by mid morning as inversion heights lower
and shear increases. Our attention then turns to a weak baroclinic
wave forecast to run along a stalled frontal zone from ohio to pa.

Weak isentropic upglide and frontogenesis aloft to the north of the
surface frontal zone will allow a band of light snow to develop
across the western southern tier later Sunday through Sunday
evening with some minor accumulations possible. The northern edge of
this is forecast by most model guidance to stay south of buffalo and
rochester. Highs will be in the low to mid 30s in most locations,
with some 20s across the higher terrain east of lake ontario.

Light snow associated with the baroclinic wave will move south and
east of the area later Sunday evening. The airmass may be marginally
supportive of a limited lake response Sunday night behind this wave,
with southwest flow gradually veering more westerly overnight. This
may allow a few flurries or light snow showers to develop northeast
and east of the lakes, but continued low inversion heights should
keep this light if it does in fact develop. Lows will be in the mid
to upper 20s.

Monday the eastern great lakes will largely stay between systems.

The stalled frontal zone may continue to produce some light precip
across pa, with an approaching mid level trough and surface cold
front bringing snow showers to the upper great lakes and ontario
upstream of us. There may still be some very limited potential for
light lake effect rain snow showers east of the lakes, otherwise the
rest of the area will stay mainly dry. Highs will reach the mid to
upper 30s in most areas.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Temperatures will remain below normal through midweek as a longwave
trough remains in place across the northeast quarter of the nation.

A few more weak mid level shortwaves and associated cold fronts will
bring the potential for nuisance snow showers Monday night through
midweek, with limited lake effect potential at times. The first
such front will cross the area Monday night and early Tuesday with a
few scattered snow showers. Lake enhancement east and southeast of
the lakes may produce minor accumulations across higher terrain.

This will be followed by limited northwest flow lake effect later
Tuesday and Tuesday night. Another weak shortwave may cross the
region Wednesday and Wednesday night with a chance of a few more
snow showers.

Late next week into next weekend it still appears a pattern change
will bring a significant warm-up to our region. The details on when
the warm-up arrives continues to show a good deal of run to run
variation in model guidance. Model and ensemble consensus from
yesterday suggested thanksgiving would be the first warmer day.

Model guidance has now backed off on this idea, with a lingering
trough over new england through thanksgiving. In fact, the new 00z
ecmwf has another strong push of cold air arriving Wednesday night
and thanksgiving day. Given the model uncertainty, have trended the
forecast temperatures down for thanksgiving but not as far as
current model guidance. A warmer airmass will eventually arrive by
Friday or next weekend.

Aviation 19z Saturday through Thursday
Lots of low level moisture is in place, with cloudy skies across the
regions. Cloud bases are in the MVFRVFR flight categories at most
stations, except across the western southern tier (including kjhw)
where there is a mix of ifr MVFR conditions. These conditions will
largely remain until after 21z when a weak cold front approaches and
brings some light snow showers. However, behind this front the
boundary is drier which will result in improving conditions this
evening and tonight.

A weak area of low pressure will track to our south and bring a
general area of light snow to southern areas on Sunday. This is
likely to result in ifr conditions from light snow at kjhw. The
steady snow should pass south of other TAF sites, with mainlyVFR
conditions expected on Sunday.

Outlook...

Monday through Wednesday... MVFR ifr with a chance of snow showers.

Thursday...VFR.

Marine
Westerly winds will gradually diminish during the day as surface
high pressure builds toward the region. This will allow small craft
headlines to be dropped through tonight as outlined below. A few
weak systems may result in a brief increase in winds Monday through
Wednesday, but for the most part the first half of the week should
be headline free. High pressure will build across the lower great
lakes Wednesday night and Thursday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for lez040-
041.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Sunday for
loz043>045.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
loz042.

Synopsis... Apffel
near term... Apffel
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Apffel
marine... Apffel


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 19 mi59 min W 26 G 29 38°F 1021.9 hPa (+0.0)
EREP1 32 mi41 min WNW 19 G 23
45142 - Port Colborne 36 mi59 min WNW 18 G 23 38°F 47°F5 ft1022.5 hPa (+0.4)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 39 mi47 min 37°F 1022.1 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 54 mi41 min W 15 G 19 37°F 41°F1022.5 hPa21°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY21 mi66 minW 10 G 2010.00 miOvercast37°F27°F67%1023.2 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW13
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1 day agoE9SE13SE7
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E5E9NE3NE5NE3CalmCalmS3CalmS6S7S8S8W10
G16
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G28
2 days agoW5SW4S4S4S6S4SE3SE5SE6SE5SE6NE6E6E7NE7NE5NE7NE8NE9E4NE3N33E7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.