Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mayville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 5:58PM Thursday February 21, 2019 4:38 PM EST (21:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:39PMMoonset 8:34AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 334 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm est this evening...
Tonight..West winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 knots or less after midnight. Mostly cloudy. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Friday..Light and variable winds. Becoming mostly Sunny.
Friday night..Light and variable winds. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. Mostly Sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly cloudy.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers.
Sunday..Southwest gales to 35 knots becoming west to 40 knots. Rain showers during the day, then snow and rain showers likely Sunday night.
Monday..West gales to 35 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.
Tuesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
LEZ040 Expires:201902220415;;297730 FZUS51 KBUF 212034 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 334 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-220415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mayville, NY
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location: 42.25, -79.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 212130
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
430 pm est Thu feb 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build across the region through Friday night. A
strengthening storm system will arrive this weekend. Rain will
arrive Saturday night, then a powerful cold front will bring
strong and possibly damaging winds Sunday and Sunday night.

Near term through Friday
Visible imagery showing leading edge of clearing skies pushing
northward into the southern tier of new york state. We will
likely see this clearing creep a bit further north during the
remainder of the afternoon. Farther north, lingering moisture
and upsloping may result in some light snow showers east of lake
ontario into this evening.

A reinforcing cold front will drop across the area tonight as
surface high pressure continues to move eastward into the region.

Most guidance suggesting cloud cover will fill back in as we get
into an upslope flow trapping some moisture underneath inversion.

Considerable cloud cover will hinder radiational cooling with
low temperatures in the 20s. Areas which remain clear longer
could see temperatures lower into the teens.

Surface high pressure and associated drier air will continue to
build into the region Friday, bringing fair weather and lighter
winds. However, a fair amount of cirrus is expected to stream
into the region along axis of 120kt jet separating the deep
trough over the western CONUS and anomalous upper ridge over the
caribbean. Temperatures will be near average in the 30s.

Short term Friday night through Sunday night
Widespread damaging wind likely Sunday...

high pressure will move east of the area Friday night into Saturday
with return flow around it allowing for progressively moderating and
warming temperatures. As this occurs, the next system that will
affect the area moves toward the western great lakes, working to
increase the pressure gradient driven southerly flow. This allows
850 mb warm advection to reach a crescendo on Saturday night in
advance of the cold front associated with this system moving into
the area. Thus, by 12z Sunday, consensus 850 mb temperatures eclipse
+10c and even reach +12c on some guidance. Thus, non-diurnal
temperature rises are all but a given, yielding readings
precariously close to 60f across a vast swath of the lower portion
of the CWA early Sunday.

This all comes crashing down as a stunningly strong cold front rips
toward and through the area from Sunday morning onward. Model
guidance has been encouragingly consistent with the deepening,
timing, and track of this system. In fact, model clustering is
astoundingly tight for a d3-d3.5 forecast, and this only works to
increase confidence in a rather hazardous forecast for Sunday and
Sunday night.

Ahead of the system, rainfall really blossoms in warm advection,
however the apex of this seems to largely be north of the area, but
with the density discontinuity noted along the front vis-a-vis 850
mb temperature falls from +12c to -6c over a span of 12 hours on
Sunday, it would be rather amazing if it failed to rain along the
cold front, even with the best forcing to our north. That said, the
rainfall will not be the main event with this system. In its wake,
the occluding upper level low will drive a mid-level dry slot and
associated tropopause fold through the area from Sunday morning
onward. This is noted by a drastic drop of the dynamic tropopause
well below 700 mb across lake erie with an associated ribbon of
starkly drier air that penetrates down toward 800 mb signifying some
sort of stratospheric intrusion. That said, this will work to
essentially shove all atmospheric momentum below this level and
likewise allow for the development of a post-frontal 75+ knot low
level jet. The progression of this feature through the area is
utterly crushing both in terms of the synoptic features driving it
as well as the fact it will be coming through during a diurnally
favorable period of mixing out to the surface. Further, substantial
drying aloft due to the tropopause fold may yield a period of sun
concurrent with its passage. This would only further enhance the
mixing potential. That said, bufkit momentum transfer suggests in
excess of 60 kts (70+ mph) is possible along the lake erie shore,
through buffalo, rochester, and into watertown. Even elsewhere,
where high wind gusts are far less frequent, very strong winds will
also be possible given this method. That said, a high wind watch was
issued for the entire area.

In concert with the high wind watch, and with a consideration to
damage from recent far less intense wind events, as well as rather
mobile ice on lake erie, lakeshore flood watches were issued for ice
damage along the shore and ice overtopping the ice boom into the
niagara river. These effects will be enhanced by a likely lake
seiche, however the amplitude of this remains to be seen a bit as
guidance isn't really available at this time.

Behind the Sunday system, rapidly cooling conditions will favor a
changeover to upslope snow showers with a segue to a much colder
extended forecast period.

Long term Monday through Thursday
Windy conditions will continue into Monday as the powerful storm
system moves into the canadian maritimes. A very tight pressure
gradient will lead to northwest winds gusting to 40-45 mph through
Monday morning. Pressure rises will slow down Monday evening and
winds will finally settle down. Cold air advection will also be
occurring Monday and Monday night with 850 mb temperatures falling
to around -15 deg c by Monday evening. Northwest flow across the
lakes will result in lake snows especially east southeast of lake
ontario. Subsidence will be increasing during this time so minor
accumulations are possible.

Mostly zonal flow will persist across much of the north-central
conus mid-week. High pressure will move into the great lakes Monday
night and Tuesday. Models diverge from there with the 12z gfs
developing a weak system that tracks to the south. This may bring
accumulating snow to the area Tuesday night-Wednesday night. On the
contrary, the 12z ECMWF has high pressure across much of the great
lakes through mid-week. Very cold temperatures are also possible
into mid-week if the 12z ECMWF pans out.

Aviation 22z Thursday through Tuesday
Ceilings will primarily remain in the 35 to 45 hundred foot range
through this afternoon. Some patchy MVFR ceilings are possible over
the higher terrain. Ceilings will likely lower a bit tonight
as a weak upslope flow develops behind a reinforcing cold front.

Brisk southwest winds will continue through this afternoon with
surface wind gusts of 25-35 kts at kiag kbuf kroc kart. Winds
will diminish tonight.

Outlook...

Friday and Saturday...VFR.

Sunday... MVFR or ifr with rain, then snow. Strong winds.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR MVFR with scattered snow showers.

Marine
Brisk southwesterly winds behind a cold front will support small
craft headlines across most of the area into tonight.

A powerful storm system will cut through the central great lakes
Sunday and Sunday night. As this system rapidly deepens it will
produce at least gale force winds on the lakes, with storm force
wind gusts likely.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... High wind watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
nyz001>003-007-010-011-019-085.

High wind watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night
for nyz004>006-008-012>014-020-021.

Lakeshore flood watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday
night for nyz001-010-019-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for lez020.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for
lez040-041.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm est this evening for
loz030.

Small craft advisory until 7 am est Friday for loz042>044.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Friday for loz045.

Synopsis... Tma
near term... Tma
short term... Fries
long term... Hsk
aviation... Tma
marine... Apffel tma


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 19 mi38 min W 23 G 27 34°F 1019 hPa (+1.4)
EREP1 32 mi50 min W 15 G 19
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 39 mi62 min 33°F 1018.5 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 54 mi50 min SW 23 G 28 33°F 32°F1018.9 hPa22°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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G12
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G14
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G11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY21 mi45 minWSW 17 G 2610.00 miFair36°F26°F67%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10E5E115S17
G24
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G33
S19
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G26
S9SW16
G28
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G22
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G30
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1 day agoW6CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E6NE6NE8NE11SE11E8CalmN10SE14
G25
SE7SE4E10
2 days agoW8W5SW5W6W4W5NW6W5S3SW4SW4SW4SW3S4S4SW3SW4SW8W8W7W8NW7W7W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.