Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
River Rouge, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:30PM Thursday January 18, 2018 8:47 AM EST (13:47 UTC) Moonrise 8:52AMMoonset 7:10PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0053.000000t0000z-171008t0415z/ 1125 Pm Edt Sat Oct 7 2017
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi... The Thunderstorms have moved out and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4185 8345 4235 8304 4237 8299 4236 8293 4231 8307 4224 8313 4216 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4177 8336 time...mot...loc 0324z 222deg 57kt 4256 8295 4227 8289 4208 8292
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201710080334;;532427 FZUS73 KDTX 080325 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1125 PM EDT SAT OCT 7 2017 LCZ423-LEZ444-080334-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near River Rouge, MI
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location: 42.25, -83.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 181055
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
555 am est Thu jan 18 2018

Aviation
Stratus development with west-southwest flow from lake michigan has
remained muted early this morning, but coverage does continue to
increase gradually, so will maintain a period of MVFR conditions.

This seems most likely kfnt kptk given trajectory, but all terminals
have some change of a period of CIGS on the order of 2000 feet.VFR
conditions are then expected late today on into Friday morning as
southwest flow persists.

For dtw... Trajectory of the morning stratus from lake michigan has
remained north of terminal, but trends suggest some chance of this
area building into area for at least several hours later this
morning. Otherwise,VFR conditions (and southwest flow) will persist
throughout the remainder of the forecast period.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low in ceilings AOB 5kft late morning to early afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 325 am est Thu jan 18 2018
discussion...

near term today through tonight
as of 325 am est... Quiet weather pattern continues today and tonight
with anticyclonic flow aloft. Initial upper-level ridging will be
dampened late today and into tonight by the approach of a moisture-
starved northern stream shortwave impulse. This feature will pass by
to the north of southeast michigan across northern lake huron and
will only bring an uptick in mid high cloud cover with its passage.

Dry weather will prevail today, although periods of stratocu will be
possible as lake michigan moisture plume gets going, mainly north of
the detroit metro. Southwest flow will continue to be breezy at
times, with gusts of 20-25 mph. High temperatures will continue their
moderating trend with most areas reaching near the freezing mark
today. Low temperatures tonight will range from the upper teens to
lower 20s, coldest near the ohio border.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
quiet and dry weather continues through the short term period with
flat upper-level ridging. Lake aggregate moisture in the low-levels
will continue to lead to periods of stratocu, especially north of
the detroit metro. Surface high pressure across the southeast states
will continue the southwesterly breezy return flow across the
region, advecting in a moderating airmass with time as temperatures
rise into the mid and upper 30s Friday and near 40 on Saturday.

Upstream, vigorous pacific energy moving into the intermountain west
will carve out a deepening longwave trough that will induce lee
cyclogenesis over the central plains Friday into Saturday. This low
pressure system will deepen as it tracks northeastward towards the
upper midwest for the second half of the weekend, discussed further
below.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
active period of weather will occur for the second half of the
weekend and into early next week as aforementioned low pressure
system tracks northwest of southeast michigan. Long range guidance
continues to be in generally good agreement that the track of the
low will be to the northwest across the upper midwest and eventually
into lake superior. Guidance continues to diverge with regards to
timing, which is noted in PV evolution differences likely a result
of differences in the model data assimilation schemes resolving
inbound pacific energy. The gfs, as typically on par in the 4-6 day
time period, is faster than the ECMWF by roughly 12-18 hours, again
a likely result of internal model diagnostics which will be ironed
out in the next 24 hours as the pacific energy moves onshore and is
better sampled. Also of note is increasing spread in how deep the
low gets, with the ECMWF weaker than the GFS (mid 990s vs. Sub 990
hpa), which will have implications on the strength of the frontal
features.

Either way, this system will be quite dynamic as it ejects out of
the central plains and into the upper midwest. Significant
atmospheric mass adjustment will occur over the weekend as coupled
upper-level jet with strengthening subtropical branch brings a surge
of warmer and more moist air that will be infused with moisture of
both pacific and gulf origins (pwats increasing to near 1 inch).

Impressive midlevel height falls will occur as a result as the
system moves into the upper midwest Monday, with a significant
response in the low-levels noted by a 60-70 knot LLJ that looks to
move over lower michigan Monday.

Diving into the forecast details first starting with Sunday,
increasing low-level warm air advection and ivt ahead of the
system's developing warm front will overspread the region leading to
a period of likely light overrunning precip Sunday morning. Forecast
soundings reveal a pronounced warm nose warmer than 3 c and surface
temps near freezing Sunday morning. Freezing drizzle appears
possible given the synoptic setup and have added mention of this to
the grids. Increasing dewpoints and boundary layer saturation will
also lead to areas of possible fog Sunday into Sunday night aided by
melting snow. Continued advection of milder air should end any mixed
precip threat by the afternoon with a transition to rain showers as
temperatures rise into the 40s as the warm front attempts to lift
northward through lower michigan, but the northward extent may be
limited by the influence of cold lake temps ice.

Precip chances continue to increase Sunday night and into Monday as
increasing isentropic ascent in the warm conveyer belt arrives along
with sharp diffluence aloft in the left-exit region of the upper-
level jet. Diurnal effects may allow for some wet snowflakes to mix
in Sunday night especially across northern lower michigan before a
transition back to all rain Monday. Monday looks to be a damp day
with periods of rain. There are signals in the model guidance,
coupled with the strength of the llj, for a convective line of gusty
showers accompanying the cold frontal passage late Monday with some
elevated instability present but overall lack of insolation
precludes any mention of thunder at this time. Will need to watch
this potential closely over the coming days.

As the low pressure system lifts north into canada Monday night and
into Tuesday, colder air will rush back across the region as 850 hpa
temps plummet from a peak of 5-7 c on Monday to near -15 c Tuesday
behind the strong cold frontal passage. Lake effect snow machine
will get ramped back up to round out the long term period with
chances for snow showers. Despite the plummeting low-level temps,
increasing Sun angle will help offset this as high temperatures will
be near to slightly below normal for late january.

Marine...

persistent southwest flow will continue into the weekend. While
winds will be a bit gusty at times, the overall gust potential will
diminish due to increasingly warm, stable fetch. Winds will back to
the southeast by Sunday as low pressure begins to organize over the
central plains. As this low deepens and moves into the western great
lakes, wind gusts will increase. That said, stable conditions should
cap gusts at 30 knots or less over lake huron.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..99
discussion... Irl
marine... ... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 18 mi47 min SW 6 G 13 15°F 1019 hPa (-0.3)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 30 mi47 min SW 23 G 25 16°F
AGCM4 38 mi53 min 15°F 1018.2 hPa
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 44 mi53 min SW 11 G 17 16°F 1020.5 hPa6°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 44 mi47 min SW 21 G 24 15°F 1022.4 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI12 mi52 minWSW 810.00 miFair15°F8°F75%1019.6 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI13 mi54 minSW 13 G 1810.00 miOvercast15°F8°F74%1019.7 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI14 mi54 minSW 139.00 miA Few Clouds14°F8°F77%1020.6 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI21 mi52 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast16°F9°F76%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4SW4SW5SW6SW9SW9SW11
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1 day agoW7SW8W8W9SW7W7W8W7SW7SW9W6W6W7W7W7W5W6W5W4SW3SW3W6W7W6
2 days agoSE5SE7SE8SE8SE6SE6SE4SE4S5SE4S4S3SW5W4W4SW5SW8SW8SW7W3W8W7W8W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.