Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
River Rouge, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:44AMSunset 6:50PM Monday October 15, 2018 7:38 AM EDT (11:38 UTC) Moonrise 1:08PMMoonset 10:40PM Illumination 34% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0040.000000t0000z-181006t2345z/ 710 Pm Edt Sat Oct 6 2018
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4216 8321 4218 8313 4213 8312 4205 8315 4202 8314 4198 8315 4197 8318 4196 8328 time...mot...loc 2308z 250deg 36kt 4214 8305
LCZ423 Expires:201810062320;;771027 FZUS73 KDTX 062310 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 710 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2018 LCZ423-LEZ444-062320-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near River Rouge, MI
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location: 42.25, -83.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 151103
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
703 am edt Mon oct 15 2018

Aviation
A standard fall cold front is passing through SE michigan during the
morning. It first brings borderline ifr MVFR restriction in stratus
and rain showers followed by a steady improvement after passage.

Colder and drier air helps lift ceiling through MVFR intoVFR during
early afternoon as west to northwest wind gusts around 25 knots. A
clearing trend is then anticipated for late afternoon through early
evening, however the cold air maintains a mixed boundary layer and
some gustiness to the wind pattern tonight even after sunset. Some
backing and decoupling overnight will bring potential for lake
effect stratocu to move in from the west with at least scattered
coverage and perhaps patches of broken ceiling through mid Tuesday
morning.

For dtw... Borderline ifr MVFR ceiling lifts steadily through MVFR
intoVFR below 5000 ft by early afternoon after passage of the cold
front. Southwest wind shifting toward northwest becomes gusty but
likely remains below crosswind threshold through early afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less through early afternoon.

* moderate for wind gusts from 280 at 25 knots this afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 329 am edt Mon oct 15 2018
discussion...

extended stretch of below normal temperatures will define this
forecast period, as the great lakes remain under the influence of
larger scale troughing reinforced by a series of shortwaves of north
pacific origin. One such wave now anchored over western lake
superior will accelerate northeast while deepening over the next 24
hours. Attendant cold front on track to sweep across southeast
michigan this morning as the greater height falls spill into the
region. While stronger mid level forcing will reside to the north in
closer proximity to the mid level circulation trajectory, the
combination of modest frontal forcing and an uptick in cva will
maintain the potential for shower development locally throughout the
morning period. Precipitation potential diminishes quickly by midday
as both the moisture depth and available forcing wanes. The ensuing
increase in cold air advection augmented by a strengthening pressure
gradient within the immediate wake of a deepening low-mid level
system will then result in a period of gusty westerly conditions mid
afternoon into the evening. Recent model and probabilistic guidance
maintain gust potential in the 30 mph range. Limited diurnal
temperature response expected given the timing and strength of the
advective process. This will keep daytime temperatures parked
generally within the upper 40s to lower 50s range.

850 mb temperatures will bottom out near -5c as cold air advection
ceases tonight, translating into a cold Tuesday morning. The overall
magnitude of the radiational cooling potential does carry some
uncertainty yet, owing to the likelihood that the near surface layer
remains modestly mixed 5-7 kt west to southwest wind and the
potential for lake michigan stratus to funnel downstream early
Tuesday morning. With that said, pure magnitude of the resident
thermal profile would suggest lows approaching the freezing mark are
attainable. Freeze frost headlines certainly in play for tonight, but
will afford the daycrew the opportunity to access more near term
trends before delineating an appropriate headline if necessary.

Shortwave energy streaming across the northern great lakes will draw
another cold front across southeast michigan late Tuesday. This
yields a brief window of opportunity for weak pre-frontal warm air
advection during the day. Any early day lake stratus mixes out
within this pattern, before thicker mid cloud accompanies the
frontal boundary late. Low level moisture recovery remains non-
existent given the quick turnaround from the FROPA today, so
precipitation potential with this frontal passage remains minimal.

Gusty conditions once again during the daylight period, with
southwest winds gusting 30 to 35 mph by afternoon - strongest north
of i-69.

Period of strong height falls into the existing mean trough axis
Tuesday night into Wednesday will yield a solid reinforcing shot of
colder air for the midweek period. Temperatures within the 850-925
mb layer projected to run 2-3 degrees colder than the cold shot
noted today tonight. This will keep daytime temperatures Wednesday a
good 10 degrees below normal. Potential for some influence of high
pressure building over the ohio valley lends confidence for a greater
radiational cooling opportunity Wednesday night - assuming clouds
clear. Coldest conditions this forecast period likely noted Thursday
morning given the environment, with a more widespread distribution of
lows at below freezing.

Marine...

an active period of marine wind and wave conditions is set to unfold
through mid week as two main low pressure systems and associated
fronts affect the central great lakes. The first is a cold front
moving through early today which brings gusty northwest wind to all
marine areas. A gale warning remains in effect for the open waters
of lake huron north of harbor beach and a small craft advisory
remains in effect for all other marine areas.

A diminishing trend of only a few hours occurs overnight as the next
low pressure system approaches the northern great lakes. Northwest
wind quickly backs to southwest and strengthens rapidly to gales
again by early Tuesday morning. The cold air mass remains in
residence during this time and maintains an unstable thermal profile
over lake huron and saginaw bay as the wind ramps up. Southwest wind
gusts of 35 to 40 knots are likely again across the open waters of
lake huron north of harbor beach but also including saginaw bay. The
gale warning is therefore extended through Tuesday for lake huron
and transitions from a small craft advisory tonight to a gale
warning Tuesday for saginaw bay. The associated cold front moves
through the central great lakes Tuesday night with northwest wind
gusting mainly around 30 knots with a few gusts to marginal gales
possible over central lake huron through Wednesday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt Tuesday for
lhz361>363-462.

Small craft advisory from noon today to 8 am edt Wednesday for
lhz441>443.

Small craft advisory from noon today to 8 am edt Tuesday for lhz421-
422.

Gale warning from 8 am to 8 pm edt Tuesday for lhz421-422.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory from noon today to 8 am edt Wednesday for
lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory from noon today to 8 am edt Wednesday for
lez444.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 18 mi38 min SW 7 G 9.9 53°F 1012.5 hPa (-0.7)
45147 - Lake St Clair 24 mi38 min WSW 12 G 14 54°F 57°F1 ft1011.4 hPa (-1.1)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 30 mi38 min WSW 15 G 19 55°F
AGCM4 38 mi38 min 53°F 58°F1011.8 hPa (-0.7)
45165 39 mi28 min WNW 9.7 G 12 55°F 61°F1 ft52°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 44 mi38 min W 8.9 G 13 54°F 1012.9 hPa (-0.0)50°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 44 mi38 min WSW 15 G 17 55°F 1012.6 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI12 mi43 minWSW 310.00 miOvercast52°F50°F94%1012.2 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI13 mi45 minWSW 610.00 miOvercast52°F48°F89%1012.3 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI14 mi45 minSW 105.00 miFog/Mist52°F48°F89%1012.6 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI21 mi43 minSW 510.00 miOvercast53°F48°F83%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from ONZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SW4SW5S8S6S7S8S6SE7SE4SE3CalmE4E4E3SW5SW7NW3SW3SW5SW6SW5SW4W4
1 day agoW6W4W6SW8SW8SW9W7W8SW5
G15
SW5W7SW4SW4CalmSW5SW5SW4SW5SW6SW3SW6SW4SW5SW3
2 days agoNW6W6NW9NW9W6NW9W4W6NW6W7NW11
G14
N4N4NW4NW3NW7NW6NW5NW9W6W6W6W3W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.