Sunrise 6:22 AM   Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 3:12 AM   Moonset 2:18 PM

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LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 032303 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 703 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- A broken line of showers will slowly track east across the area this evening.

- High pressure fills in Saturday supporting mainly dry conditions ahead of the next weak cold front to bring showers and a few thunderstorms to SE MI early Sunday morning.

- Seasonably warm temperatures expected through early next week with high temperatures in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s.

AVIATION

A broken band of showers along a weakening cold front is already through mbS and FNT at press time, and will exit through PTK and the DTW corridor into Ontario by mid evening. The forecast then turns to a cloud/fog challenge as weak high pressure sets up on a axis across northern Lake Huron and northern Lower Mi. This maintains a flow of cool and moist NE wind into SE Mi augmented by Lake Huron. Wind speed in the 5 to 10 kt range favors IFR stratus over fog late tonight and Saturday morning with lower predictability on southward extent toward the DTW corridor. Improvement follows a standard diurnal trend during Saturday into a low end broken VFR ceiling for the afternoon. A stray shower is possible late in the day and closer to the Ohio border as today's cold front stalls in Ohio tonight and then moves back northward as a warm front by Saturday evening.

For DTW/D21 Convection... Thunderstorms are not expected tonight and Saturday morning. Very low potential for a thunderstorm with limited coverage late Saturday afternoon precludes a mention in the forecast at this time.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon.

* High for ceiling 5000 ft or less late tonight and Saturday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 346 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

DISCUSSION...

Broken line of showers currently extends from roughly Saginaw to Coldwater, with no observed lightning activity at issuance.
Instability has been the main limiting factor thus far, with MLCAPE holding aob 250 J/kg and observed temperatures generally in the mid to upper 60s. Pockets of sunshine ahead of the line may increase instability enough through the evening to support a few embedded thunderstorms, but for now storm tops have struggled to even reach the freezing level. Slow eastward progression of the line (15-20 mph) and waning instability after 00z with loss of diurnal heating may prevent the line from even getting to easternmost portions of the cwa.

Post-frontal subsidence introduces a deep layer of static stability to the column overnight, most prominent near the Tri Cities and Thumb. In these locations, patchy fog is expected especially as onshore flow emerges from Lake Huron. Elsewhere, weaker inversion and poor decoupling signal suggest stratus or more localized fog development Saturday morning. Otherwise, a drier day is in store Saturday for SE MI. Upstream, a surface low lifts toward Lake Superior which effectively draws the theta-e axis back into lower Michigan by Saturday afternoon which boosts temperatures into the mid 70s. The boost to boundary layer conditions will be enough to build surface-based instability, but any convective initiation will depend on localized convergence or lake breezes. So at this point, just a stray shower or thunderstorm will be possible Saturday afternoon.

Broader convective coverage is expected early Sunday morning as the surface low sweeps another cold front across the cwa. Persistent lack of mid-upper level jet support and modest elevated instability suggest showers and a few thunderstorms to be possible Sunday morning before clearing out by mid-day. Mid-level ridging then holds steady through middle of next week ahead of a strong Pacific disturbance which will be the next opportunity for widespread precipitation. High temperatures will remain comfortably in the 70s as an open Gulf and southwest flow keep conditions above average for early May standards.

MARINE...

A line of showers will continue to work east across the central Great Lakes this afternoon as a weak cold front pushes through.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible, but severe storms are not expected. Light northeast wind will occur behind the front tonight with mainly dry conditions as a localized area of high pressure builds in. Will monitor observational trends over Lake Huron where conditions may be favorable for areas of dense marine fog to form overnight into Saturday morning. Winds then gradually organize out of the southeast on Saturday as the high departs east. Southerly winds up to 20 knots develop Saturday night ahead of the next cold front that will sweep through on Sunday. Scattered showers and storms will accompany the front with winds turning northwesterly behind it Sunday afternoon. High pressure then builds in to bring quiet marine conditions for the early work week.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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