Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Bluff, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:11PM Saturday March 25, 2017 10:42 AM CDT (15:42 UTC) Moonrise 5:30AMMoonset 4:35PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 942 Am Cdt Sat Mar 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Rest of today..Northeast winds to 30 kt becoming east late in the day. Areas of fog. Periods of showers through the day and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the mid to late afternoon. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 11 ft.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 25 kt. Areas of fog. Showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft late.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming south in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west after midnight. Patchy fog in the evening. Slight chance of showers through the night. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to around 1 ft after midnight.
LMZ740 Expires:201703252115;;059805 FZUS53 KLOT 251442 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 942 AM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN WAVES ARE PROVIDED AS A RANGE OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES, ALONG WITH THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 10 PERCENT OF THE WAVES WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENCOUNTERED. LMZ740>742-252115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Bluff, IL
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location: 42.28, -87.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 251148
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago/romeoville, il
648 am cdt Sat mar 25 2017

Short term
303 am cdt
through Sunday night...

showers and thunderstorms will continue across the region at times
throughout the weekend with a large north to south temperature
contrast expected thanks to a frontal boundary draped over the
area.

Early morning water vapor imagery shows a closed upper low
centered over central oklahoma with moisture from the gulf of
mexico streaming northward towards the great lakes region. Over
northern illinois, a surface cold front stretches from near bmi
east-northeast to rzl. Temperatures north of the front have
fallen into the 30s and 40s, while to the south, temperatures have
stayed in the upper 50s and 60s overnight. The front has surged
much farther south than was originally anticipated, and
unfortunately models do not have good agreement on how much if any
the front will move through the day today. The GFS lifts the
front back to near the i-88 corridor by mid to late this
afternoon, while the NAM shows little northward progression
through the day. This results in lower than average confidence in
temperatures through the day especially across the chicago metro
area which will likely see a 15-20 degree temp difference from
north to south. For now, leaning towards the NAM which verified
better on frontal position yesterday and has decent agreement with
the ECMWF but has a better handle on temps near the lake.

Meanwhile, the upper low over ok is progged to lift to central mo
by mid afternoon and a corridor of more tightly packed pressure
contours on the 295-305k isentropic surfaces lifts across the
region. This should lead to an increase in shower and thunderstorm
coverage roughly 9-12z across the south lifting towards the wi
state line by 18-21z. Afterwards, there may be a lull in activity
or at least lower coverage in precipitation as the forcing becomes
more nebulous. Would expect to see at least some continued spotty
activity as broad ascent associated with a persistent diffluent
region aloft and continuing mid level height falls, along with low
amplitude vort maxima emanating from the upper low move into the
very moist albeit weakly unstable environment that will persist
throughout the day. Overall thunderstorm threat is not too
terribly impressive due to weak mid level lapse rates, but
guidance continues to hint at weak MUCAPE <100 j/kg that could
result in a couple isolated thunderstorms given the ample forcing.

On Sunday, upper low is expected to lift to central illinois by
midday then shift to northwest indiana Sunday evening. Showers and
possibly a couple thunderstorms will continue as the upper low
traverses the area, but anticipate precipitation to begin winding
down from the west through the afternoon as the 500mb trough axis
pass through and eventually mid and upper level height
rises/modest ridging builds in during the evening. Still a little
uncertainty in surface front placement, but models in a little
better agreement with the front lifting to or close to the wi
state line through the day Monday which should allow the upper 50s
and low 60s to overspread the cwa.

Deubelbeiss

Long term
303 am cdt
Monday through Saturday...

active weather is expected to continue through the upcoming week
and into next weekend as a series of lows push across the
midwest and great lakes region. Early part of the day Monday
should be dry and mild, but precip chances increase from the
south later in the day as low pressure lifts from southern
missouri into indiana late Monday. Sprawling area of high pressure
will build across the canadian prairies into the upper midwest
Tuesday and Wednesday resulting in a couple days of dry weather.

Persistent north to northeast flow this time frame will result in
onshore flow and cooler temperatures near lake michigan. Local
climatology indicates that temperatures struggle to reach the mid
40s for downtown chicago on late march days with persistent
onshore flow. Bumped down temperatures several degrees below
guidance near the lake... Into the mid 40s but may still be too
warm. Farther inland, still anticipate temperatures well into the
50s. Another low will traverse the region Thursday into Friday but
there is considerable spread among the various models and their
ensembles. GFS races a low to the mid atlantic coast by Friday
morning while the gem and ECMWF deepen the low and lift it across
iowa and missouri, respectively, Friday morning. Will maintain
chance pops late in the week, but confidence in any details is
very low at this point.

Deubelbeiss

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

main concerns are northeast winds/gusts today, ifr/lifr ceilings,
periodic showers/drizzle which will likely provide reduced vis.

Ceilings continue to lower this morning with ifr ceilings now
approaching lifr. This trend will likely continue here in the near
term with lifr ceilings a definite possibility. Then anticipate
these low ceilings to remain in place through the end of the
forecast period. Showers have increased in coverage over much of
northern illinois and northwest indiana, with periodic light to
moderate showers providing reduced vis this morning. Have yet to
see any vis fall below 2sm, but still think periodic vis between
1-2sm will be a possibility this morning. Thunder is very isolated
at this time, mainly staying just to the south of the terminals.

Can't rule out a few rumbles of thunder, especially for the gyy
terminal this morning. However, if this does occur, it will be on
the brief side.

Rodriguez

Marine
335 am cdt
northerly winds in place early this morning, with speeds up to 30
kt over much of the lake. Speeds will likely remain the same with
even the north half observing these 30 kt speeds today, as low
pressure over the plains slowly moves towards the mid mississippi
valley. This will provide continued hazardous conditions for small
craft today into tonight, and Sunday. As this low then tracks
north through illinois on Sunday, do anticipate speeds to diminish
to the 15 to 25 kt range. This trend will continues Sunday night
into Monday as this low first moves across the lake, and then
departs to the east.

Rodriguez

Lot watches/warnings/advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Il nearshore waters until 5 pm Sunday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 6 mi63 min NNE 17 G 20
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 21 mi43 min NNE 18 G 20 38°F 1019.3 hPa (+0.3)
FSTI2 23 mi103 min N 39
OKSI2 28 mi103 min NNE 6
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 29 mi43 min NNE 17 G 18
CNII2 32 mi28 min N 8 G 17
JAKI2 37 mi103 min NNE 12
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 41 mi43 min N 8.9 G 13 1016.6 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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G18
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G24
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G25
SW12
G23
S14
G21
NW25
G32
NW19
G26
NW15
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SE7
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G21
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NE11
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G16
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G15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL10 mi48 minNE 13 G 206.00 miFog/Mist38°F37°F100%1019.6 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL12 mi51 minNE 13 G 213.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist39°F39°F100%1018.8 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL21 mi52 minNE 133.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist42°F39°F89%1017.2 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI22 mi50 minNE 19 G 2410.00 miOvercast and Breezy39°F37°F93%1020 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW18
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NE10N14
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N9N9
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1 day agoS12
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SE11S8SE7SE15SE14S10E5SE5S6S15S17SW16SW11SW14SW11SW9SW14
G20
4SW8
2 days agoNE8E86NE8NE8E9NE8NE6NE6NE6CalmCalmCalmCalmE4E4SE7S6S11SE11SE9SE9
G18
SE12SE12
G19

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.