Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Bluff, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:21PM Monday May 29, 2017 10:06 AM CDT (15:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:28AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor-calumet Harbor To Gary- 919 Am Cdt Mon May 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
Rest of today..West winds 20 to 25 kt. Occasional gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 kt. Slight chance of showers in the evening. Waves around 1 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:201705292130;;399820 FZUS53 KLOT 291419 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 919 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN WAVES ARE PROVIDED AS A RANGE OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES, ALONG WITH THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 10 PERCENT OF THE WAVES WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENCOUNTERED. LMZ740>743-292130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Bluff, IL
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location: 42.28, -87.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 291128
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
628 am cdt Mon may 29 2017

Short term
252 am cdt
today and tonight...

main forecast concerns in the short term are with the potential
for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms later this
afternoon, and breezy west winds.

Early morning surface analysis depicts low pressure north of the
great lakes, across central ontario. A secondary cold front
trailed from this low, bisecting the state of iowa from northeast
to southwest. Aloft, a series of minor-amplitude short waves were
evident within northwest flow aloft, along a sheared mid-level
vorticity axis in association with an upper level jet streak which
will round the southwest and southern peripheries of the trough
and closed low north of the lakes. Several models indicate the
potential for some elevated shower development ahead of the trough
axis and low level frontal zone across northwest il by sunrise,
where a patch of mid-level clouds currently exists northwest of
dbq. High-res cam guidance generally limits this to northwest far
north central il along the wi border, with activity dissipating or
moving east-northeast north of the wi border by 14-15z this
morning. Otherwise, it appears most areas will remain dry through
the morning hours, until diurnal heating eventually results in the
development of some weak surface-based instability this afternoon.

The greatest focus for shower thunderstorm development is expected
to be across far northern il (and northern ia into wi) beneath
slightly cooler mid-level temps, and across the far southeast or
off to the southeast of the CWA where the secondary cold front
ends up later today. Weakly unstable conditions and lack of low
level convergent focus should result in convection being fairly
disorganized and relatively low coverage, with many dry hours in
most areas. Loss of diurnal instability should allow for
dissipation of any lingering showers with sunset this evening.

Forecast soundings do indicate fairly deeply mixed boundary layer
conditions today, and while the surface pressure gradient is not
overly strong, 25-30 kt winds within the top of the mixed layer
will make for some breezy gusty west winds to around 30 mph. Low
level thermal progs support temps ranging from the low-mid 70's
north, to the upper 70's to near 80 along our ilx ind borders.

Ratzer

Long term
255 am cdt
Tuesday through Sunday...

our friendly upper level low across the northern
great lakes will only slowly pull northeast of the region over the
course of the week. While the low will still partially play a role
in our local weather through a good chunk of the week, we really
only feel its influence from a potential precipitation perspective
for one more day on Tuesday. This is due to upper level energy
still rotating on the back side of the low and as upper level
heights remain relatively low at the base of the trough axis. One
such shortwave will lead to some showers on Tuesday. NAM forecast
soundings show some capping in the morning thus possibly a diurnal
uptick would be expected in this pattern. While the GFS shows
limited instability, the NAM shows some weak instability (up to
around 500 j kg) and around 35 kt of bulk shear thus some chance
of thunder.

And while we do still remain in northwest flow Wednesday, upper
heights will be rising and thus lapse rates weaken. Also surface
high pressure will push southeast, thus we remain largely dry, but
seasonally a tad cool with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s.

The low level frontal boundary to our south will lift northward on
Thursday as a warm front ahead of southwest lower level flow
beneath a ridge across the high plains states. There appears a
hint of a convective complex developing along the nose of the low
level jet across the plains Wednesday night that will likely be in
somewhat of decaying state on Thursday to our west. Thursday night
the low level jet will veer a bit more westerly and point toward
our region as the warm front will be lifting through northeast
illinois. This would be a favored period for showers and
thunderstorms. Shear is not that great, but slow storm motion
would suggest some good rain could fall.

With high pressure to the north, a back door cold front is
advertised by the GFS ec. After some decay in the activity, the
front could get active again Friday afternoon with warm moist
southwest flow. After that the pattern suggests the front lingers
in the region with active northwest flow to our north. The
position of the front will play a big role on whether we continue
showers and storms Saturday or if we remain stable to the north
of the front with its position being across central illinois. Most
guidance has the front through Saturday night Sunday.

Kmd

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

primary terminal concerns remain isolated scattered shower
potential today, and gusty west winds.

Low pressure was north of the lakes this morning, with a secondary
cold front trailing into northern il. This front will become
oriented from southwest to northeast to the south of the terminals
by this afternoon. Mid-level cloud deck was noted from eastern ia
into southern wi, with radar indicating some isolated light shra
with these. Expect only rfd will be affected by these early this
morning, with high-res models consistent in dissipating precip by
14-15z. Isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
or two are expected to redevelop across a similar area later this
afternoon, in response to daytime heating and a series of minor
mid level disturbances. The frontal boundary south of the
terminals may also serve as a focus for showers and isolated
thunderstorms later this afternoon. Precipitation will dissipate
with sunset this evening.VFR conditions expected to persist.

Winds were in the process of shifting from southwest to west
across the area at this hour with the weak cold frontal passage.

Heating will deepen the mixed layer, producing gusty west winds
25-30 kts by midday afternoon. Winds will also subside with loss
of heating this evening.

Ratzer

Marine
255 am cdt
expect another breezy day with west winds approaching 25
kt as low pressure lingers across western ontario while high
pressure across west central canada expands southward across the
plains. This pattern continues into Tuesday though with some
slight weakening to the pressure gradient. The high will then
spread to the southern tip of the lake late wendesday. The high
will spread to the mid atlantic coast Thursday as a warm front
lifts northeast across at least a portion of the lake Thursday
night into early Friday. Late in the week a backdoor cold front
will shift south across lake michigan with a quick shift to
northeast winds.

Kmd

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742-lmz743... 10 am
Monday to 7 pm Monday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 6 mi67 min W 19 67°F
45174 14 mi37 min W 12 G 16 63°F 55°F1 ft47°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 21 mi67 min W 20 G 27 67°F 1008.5 hPa (+0.7)
FSTI2 23 mi127 min W 15 70°F
OKSI2 28 mi127 min N 1.9 72°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 29 mi47 min WSW 13 G 14 70°F 44°F
CNII2 32 mi37 min W 2.9 G 11 71°F
JAKI2 37 mi127 min W 6 71°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 41 mi49 min WSW 8 G 12 71°F 1009.3 hPa48°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL10 mi72 minW 8 G 1510.00 miFair67°F46°F49%1007.4 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL12 mi75 minW 11 G 2210.00 miFair70°F46°F42%1008.8 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL21 mi76 minW 810.00 miA Few Clouds70°F46°F42%1008.6 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI22 mi74 minW 16 G 2410.00 miFair67°F48°F51%1008 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7NE455SW65NW11
G17
63SW7W8
G14
3Calm3SW3SW4SW43SW5SW5SW55W8W8
G15
1 day agoE7E63E5SE7SE9E7SE8SE10SE6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmS5NW8
G14
2 days agoE7E9E8E5SE5E6NE3NE6NE7NE6NE5E8E5CalmCalmN3NE3CalmNE3CalmCalmCalmE4E5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.