Tuesday, September18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Lake Bluff, IL

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Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 6:56PM Tuesday September 18, 2018 4:36 PM CDT (21:36 UTC) Moonrise 3:33PMMoonset 12:19AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 318 Pm Cdt Tue Sep 18 2018
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south after midnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less after midnight.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:201809190315;;847333 FZUS53 KLOT 182018 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 318 PM CDT Tue Sep 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-190315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lake Bluff, IL
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location: 42.28, -87.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 181933
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
233 pm cdt Tue sep 18 2018

Short term
Through tonight...

220 pm... Main forecast concern is thunderstorm chances for the
rest of this afternoon and again toward morning.

Multiple outflow boundaries have pushed through the CWA today
with northerly winds through the southern part of the cwa. A cu
field has developed in this area with isolated showers now
developing... Mainly just south of the cwa. Debris clouds from
showers convection to the west continue to spread across the area
as well with additional convection mainly moving south across west
central il. It appears that additional thunderstorm develop is
likely to be confined to the southwest or southern portions of the
cwa this afternoon with the area of showers continuing to slowly
dissipate as it moves southeast. There is still a chance of a
thunderstorm with this activity but given the extensive cloud
cover and lower temps... Not expecting anything widespread. After
this activity ends by early this evening... Short term guidance is
in good agreement with most of tonight remaining dry. The focus
then shifts to new convection developing over northern ia southern
mn later this evening and how fast this spreads southeast. Its
possible this activity could reach the northwest CWA by morning
and maintained chance pops toward 12z but overall confidence is
low for timing.

Depending on how much low cloud cover persists or redevelops
overnight... There is some potential for fog... Especially in the
northwest where rain fell today and in the usual low lying areas.

Confidence is fairly low so no mention of fog at this time.

High temps were able to recover into the upper 80s near 90 in the
southern CWA but with increasing cloud cover and another outflow
moving south... These temps will likely fall this afternoon with
lows tonight generally in the 60s. Cms

Long term
224 pm cdt
Wednesday night through Tuesday...

a fairly active period is setting up for the long term forecast
period.

By Wednesday morning, convective activity is expected to light up
along and north of the quasi-stationary frontal boundary extending
across NRN il in. A strong swly low-level jet will feed moisture
into the boundary area while a series of weak shortwaves over-top the
upper ridge which will be centered over the lower mississippi
valley. Latest guidance continues to suggest the development of an
mcs upstream over mn ia Tuesday night and across NRN il in on
Wednesday. The greatest coverage and intensity should be durg the
morning hours and then begin to decay as it tracks across the area.

However, persistent southwest flow and warm moist advection over the
frontal zone will likely continue to support at least scattered
showers and thunderstorms, especially northern portions of the cwa
through the afternoon and overnight.

By Thursday, the center of the upper ridge will shift east to the
carolina coast while a long-wave upper trough moves out of the
rockies and into the northern and central plains. This will set up
a period of strong warm advection with 50kt swly 500mb flow. There
may still be some lingering convective activity into Thursday
morning, but as the main sfc low lifts from the central plains
Thursday morning to the upper mississippi valley Thursday afternoon,
forcing the old frontal boundary north as a warm front. Temperatures
for Thursday still look to be well above normal, reaching or
exceeding 90 f across much of the cwa. The main limiting factor
with temperatures on Thursday will be the extent of lingering cloud
cover from the morning pcpn. Should the cloud cover scatter out,
there is a chance that temperatures could reach or exceed record
levels, but given the uncertainty to the cloud field, have kept
forecast highs on Thursday at slightly below record levels.

Regardless, it will be a warm, windy day with swly winds gusting up
to 30 mph.

Low pressure will continue to deepen as it tracks northeast across
the upper great lakes Thursday night. As the associated strong cold
front pushes southeast across the region overnight, a renewed chance
for showers and thunderstorms will set up. Strong instability in
the warm sector in advance of the cold front and the strong swly
flow aloft, suggests the potential for some thunderstorms to reach
severe levels, with the greatest threat across the northwest
portions of the forecast area where storms will arrive earlier in
the evening with less diurnal cooling. SPC continues to outlook the
lot CWA in their day 3 outlook, with a slight risk for far NRN nwrn
il and a marginal risk for the remainder of the area. The cold front
will continue to push southeast across the forecast area into
Friday, with a few lingering showers possible. A major change in air
mass will occur with the frontal passage as cooler, drier high
pressure builds in behind the front. By Friday morning, temperatures
should drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs Friday should
range from the lower 60s over far nern il nwrn in, near lake
michigan to the upper 60s to lower 70s well inland. The cooler,
drier weather will continue through the weekend, though temperatures
should rebound back to the middle to upper 70s by Sunday and into
early next week.

Climate
Record high temps could be jeopardy Thursday, here
are the current records:
chicago 92 (2017)
rockford 92 (1920)

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

1248 pm... Main forecast concern is thunderstorm chances through
the period. Additional concerns are wind directions and a chance
of low cigs.

Scattered showers have remained along north of a dpa ord line so
far with more widespread rain and embedded thunder spreading into
northwest il currently. This activity is expected to remain
generally to the northwest of the chicago area terminals with the
best chance for new thunderstorm develop southwest of the
terminals though confidence is low. Latest short term guidance
continues to suggest thunder potential at the chicago terminals by
20z-21z. Given the continued push of northerly winds with various
outflows... It appears better convective chances should be further
south. Activity that is able to develop this afternoon is expected
to dissipate by early this evening with mainly dry conditions then
expected through sunrise.

Convective trends for Wednesday are uncertain. There are two main
ideas... An area of thunderstorms moving across the area during the
mid late morning hours and the second... Thunderstorms weakening
before reaching the area Wednesday morning and then new activity
developing across northern il Wednesday afternoon. Maintained
previous prob mention for mid late morning thunder chances with no
clear trend. Its also possible that activity does reach the
terminals Wednesday late morning and then new activity develops in
the afternoon.

Winds have been generally northerly with the various outflows
shifting winds northwest and northeast at times. These shifts in
wind directions are likely to continue but overall wind directions
should favor east of north at ord mdw gyy.

There remains quite a bit of ifr low MVFR CIGS across southeast wi
this afternoon. Its possible some of this may spread south into
northeast il... Especially tonight but confidence is low on this as
well. For now have added few mention and trends will need to be
watched.

There is some potential for fog overnight into Wednesday
morning... Mainly over areas that see rain across the far north and
northwest. Otherwise... Fog likely to be just patchy shallow in the
usual locations. Cms

Marine
230 pm cdt
a rather active period of weather is expected on the lake for most
of the week.

The cold front that pushed down the lake will becm stationary just
south of the lake tonight. The winds are expected to veer from
nely tonight into Wednesday to the ssely by late Wednesday night
as low pressure develops over the central plains. The low is
expected to track newd over the upper great lakes by late
Thursday dragging the frontal boundary back north as a warm front
Thursday. As the pressure gradient strengthens, sly winds will
strengthen, with the potential for gales over the northern
portions of the lake late Thursday night into early Friday. Winds
will shift back to the nly late Friday following the passage of a
strong cold front. Wind speeds will likely remain elevated with
the wind shift Friday night, but surface high pressure will build
in across the lake through the weekend allowing winds to diminish.

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Beach hazards statement... Ilz006-ilz014 until 4 pm Tuesday.

In... Beach hazards statement... Inz001-inz002 until 4 pm Tuesday.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Nearshore waters
until 4 pm Tuesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45186 6 mi36 min S 3.9 69°F 70°F1 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 6 mi56 min SSE 7 G 8 69°F
45174 14 mi26 min SE 9.7 G 12 68°F 71°F3 ft66°F
45187 15 mi36 min 69°F 71°F2 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 21 mi36 min S 11 G 13 68°F 1012.5 hPa (-3.1)
FSTI2 23 mi96 min E 6 69°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 29 mi36 min E 7 G 8 69°F 65°F
CNII2 32 mi21 min E 4.1 G 12 69°F 63°F
JAKI2 37 mi96 min ENE 5.1 G 8.9 70°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 41 mi36 min N 8 G 9.9 70°F 1014.4 hPa (+0.0)65°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL10 mi41 minS 910.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F64°F84%1012.1 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL12 mi44 minSSE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F62°F71%1013.6 hPa
Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport, IL21 mi45 minN 010.00 miOvercast73°F61°F66%1013.8 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI22 mi43 minSSW 510.00 miA Few Clouds69°F66°F93%1012.6 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmNE6N8N6N5NE3N8Calm34N10
G17
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G21
NW7CalmS9
1 day agoE7E7SE4CalmSE4SE4SE4SE4S5CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N4N3CalmE6E6E6
2 days agoE5NE4NE3N3CalmN3N3NE3NE4NE4NE3N3CalmNE3NE4E4E7SE5E6E7E8E6E8E9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.