Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Spencer, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:30AMSunset 8:36PM Monday May 29, 2017 11:11 AM EDT (15:11 UTC) Moonrise 8:40AMMoonset 11:22PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1031 Pm Edt Sun May 28 2017
Rest of tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Showers and scattered Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers and scattered Thunderstorms in the morning...then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 51 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201705290900;;375178 FZUS51 KBUF 290240 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1031 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LOZ043-044-290900-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spencer, NY
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location: 42.29, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 291436
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1036 am edt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
Widespread rain will continue across the region this morning.

A second round of showers and storms is possible this afternoon.

Additional chances for showers and storms will exist Tuesday and
Wednesday... Mainly during the afternoon and evening. A few
storms may become strong.

Near term through Tuesday
1030 am update... Local radars show widespread showers now
confined to areas primarily east of i81. This activity will be
exiting the western catskills shortly after noon. Removed
mention of thunder until afternoon activity as lightning strikes
have been nil and atmosphere is fairly stable. Scattered isolated
activity will continue through the afternoon with an isolated
thunderstorm possible in weak low mid level instability.

400 am update...

main concerns in the near term are focused around the broad swath of
rain showers moving through this morning, a second round of showers
and maybe an isolated storm this afternoon, and then the potential
for a slightly stronger line of storms Tuesday afternoon.

Lead short wave lifting newd through the region this morning with a
narrow band of deep moisture associated with it and minimal elevated
instability... But enough to generate a broad area of rain showers
and possibly a few embedded storms through this afternoon. Brief
heavy rain will be the primary concern with this system. May see as
much as 0.75 inch of rain. There will likely be the main band of
rain this morning, and possibly a brief break in the late morning
and early afternoon before a secondary line of convection forms
across w-central ny and tracks to the east through the afternoon. If
there is clearing scattering out of the clouds this afternoon,
conditions may become slightly more unstable and favorable for
showers and storms.

Weather conditions ramp down tonight as weak ridging aloft and waa
in the mid levels produce some large scale suppression and induce a
low level inversion. There will likely be a robust stratus deck that
develops tonight... Which should keep temperatures mild... In the 50s.

The low clouds in place Tuesday morning will quickly lift and
dissipate as the next upper wave approaches from the W NW and
provides sufficient mixing to scatter out the clouds. The lack of
cloud cover is expected to be short lived as a cumulus field fills
in by late morning and convection begins to develop over the finger
lakes. CAPE values 1000-1500 j kg and steep low level lapse rates
combine with gt 50 kt of deep layer shear and around 1 inch pwats to
trigger convective showers and storms. These storms will track to
the east through the afternoon and be capable of small hail, gusty
winds and brief heavy rain.

Temperatures will remain mild with highs in the 60s and 70s. Surface
dew points in the upper 50s and 60s will make it feel relatively humid.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
The generally unsettled pattern will persist through this period
due to an upper level trough which will remain stuck over the
east. To start the period Tuesday evening, showers storms will
diminish through the evening with the loss of daytime heating
with mainly dry weather overnight. Lows will be mostly in the
low 50s.

For Wednesday, the next shortwave will rotate around the base of
the upper level trough and into the area and this combined with
another surface trough and daytime heating will lead to another
day of showers and storms developing by the afternoon. Despite
surface temps being relatively cool, forecast models prog 500+
j kg of ml CAPE due to the cold air aloft. Also, deep layer
shear will be around 50 knots with l57 lapse rates of around 6.5
c km. The upshot is that any storms will once again have the
potential of producing gusty winds and small hail. Highs will be
a little cooler than Tuesday... Mostly in the upper 60s to low
70s.

Showers storms diminish Wednesday evening with the loss of
heating with partial clearing overnight as a surface ridge
begins to move east toward the region. Lows will be mainly in
the upper 40s to low 50s.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
4 am update... No major changes to long range forecast. The only
real change was to lower next Saturday's pops to slight chance
as most models are now indicating we should sneak in another dry
day between systems. For further details, please see discussion
below.

445 pm Sunday update... The same basic long-wave pattern remains
in tact, with troughing below normal heights over the great
lakes and northeastern states. Thus, temperatures will stay on
the cool side for early june, along with at least some threat of
showers most of the time.

It appears we may be able to sneak out one dry day Thursday, as
surface ridging temporarily builds in behind Wednesday's systems
mentioned above. However, the chances for showers should
increase again towards next weekend, as the next surface low,
frontal complex, and series of upper-level waves approach.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
Ceilings will continue to drop to MVFR ifr the rest of this
morning. Rain showers will continue to spread nwd with a period
of MVFR vsbys in light fog ra. Heavier rain is expected to
taper off from now until 15z, with only a few light unrestricted
showers through the rest of the morning. A line of weak
convection will develop in the afternoon and impact portions of
central ny and NE pa for a few hours with brief rain showers.

The most favorable area will be across the finger lakes.VFR
conditions are expected at all sites from the afternoon into
the evening except krme and kavp which may remain MVFR. Toward
the end of the TAF period conditions may deteriorate with lower
ceilings developing just before 06z... And falling to ifr after
07z.

Se winds 5-10 knots and gusts 15 to 20 kt expected this morning.

Winds will shift to the south and eventually to the SW 5 to 10
kt by the afternoon. Winds become light and variable tonight.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Wednesday... Restrictions possible from scattered
showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday... GenerallyVFR.

Friday... Potential restrictions in rain showers.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Bjt
near term... Bjt rrm
short term... Pcf
long term... Pcf
aviation... Bjt rrm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 81 mi42 min SSE 11 G 16 57°F 1009.1 hPa54°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 89 mi72 min SW 7 G 11 65°F 1008.8 hPa (+1.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 90 mi42 min 65°F 1008.1 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY13 mi76 minSSE 910.00 miOvercast56°F53°F90%1010.6 hPa
Elmira, Elmira / Corning Regional Airport, NY22 mi79 minE 54.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist60°F55°F86%1009.7 hPa

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE8SE12SE8S11S9S11S12S9
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SE8SE9SE8SE11SE11S9SE11
1 day agoNW3NW5NW543NW3W5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3--CalmSE3NE3NE3E4E3E6E3SE4S9SE8
2 days agoW9NW13NW10
G16
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G16
NW7W7W9W8NW11NW7NW5NW4CalmNW3W3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNW4NW5NW4NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.