Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Spencer, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 4:40PM Monday November 20, 2017 12:24 PM EST (17:24 UTC) Moonrise 8:44AMMoonset 6:33PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 946 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of today..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow late this morning. A chance of snow showers late. Waves 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then clearing. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then snow showers likely Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Friday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of rain showers Friday night. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 49 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201711202230;;698828 FZUS51 KBUF 201446 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 946 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-202230-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spencer, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.29, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbgm 201646
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1146 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Synopsis
Accumulating lake effect snow will continue in north central
new york this morning, shifting mainly north of the new york
thruway by mid morning. However, at least scattered snow
showers and flurries can be expected across the rest of central
new york today and even northeast pennsylvania this morning.

Milder temperatures and dry weather are expected into Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
Updated at 1130 am...

heaviest lake effect snow band east of lake ontario has shifted
north of oneida county late this morning, however scattered
areas of light snow and flurries continue across central ny. The
combination of some moisture east of lake erie and a developing
warm front will result in scattered light snow and flurries
across much of central ny this afternoon. Some of our higher
resolution models are indicating an intensification of the snow
showers from near syracuse to the catskills with this scenario
later this afternoon implying the potential for another inch or
two of snow, although this will be mainly over higher terrain as
temperatures at lower elevations will be rising well above
freezing. All snow showers should be east and north of the area
early this evening as a warmer air mass arrives from the
southwest cutting off the lake effect potential. Previous
discussion is below.

315 am update...

evolution and eventual end of ongoing lake effect snow will be
the main forecast issue in the near term.

Lake huron to lake ontario connection became established over
the last several hours, which on radar has stretched a 20-35
dbz band of snow across onondaga and madison counties, reaching
in pieces to the cooperstown area. Under the heaviest part of
the band, 1 to 2 inch-per-hour snowfall rates are likely
occurring. Visibility has been about a half mile at times at
syracuse and rome overnight. As the lake-to-lake connection
band became dominant, the earlier one in oneida county
dissipated. However, upstream the boundary layer flow is already
beginning to back westerly as evidenced by the shifting band in
western lake ontario. As flow continues to back across our
region, there will be a lifting of the primary lake band
northward along and then north of the ny thruway this morning,
which will get oneida county back into the snow. All told,
an additional 2 to 5 inches of snow is expected from 4 am
through early afternoon in the lake effect snow warning area,
with locally higher amounts in far northern onondaga-madison
counties. The warning GOES through 1 pm, but onondaga-madison-
southern oneida counties will probably be able to be dropped
well ahead of that time as the band lifts.

Lake ontario has not produced the only action, however. Lake
erie has also caused band extensions to reach into the twin
tiers and even the greater wilkes-barre scranton metro and the
poconos at times. The resulting dusting of snow, and
temperatures falling below freezing causing ice within
previously wet roadways, will mean slick spots still possible on
untreated roads. Scattered snow showers and flurries will still
occur at times this morning for northeast pa-southern tier ny,
and into the afternoon for the rest of central ny. This will be
courtesy of lake erie moisture as flow continues to back
westerly to west-southwest with time. That being said, warm air
advection aloft will cause compression of the cloud layer to
significantly limit snowfall rates.

Temperatures today will quietly sneak up in the mid 30s-near 40
for highs, which along with dry air and west winds gusting 15-25
mph, as well as ground temperatures still well above freezing; will
tend to melt or sublimate the fluffy lake snow. Higher terrain
of central ny however will struggle to get above the lower 30s.

Southwest to south flow, and warm air advection aloft, will lead
to a clearing sky into tonight. Temperatures will settle into
the upper 20s-lower 30s this evening, then hold fairly steady
overnight.

Short term Tuesday through Tuesday night
Mild SW flow continues Tuesday as a low pressure system and
associated upper level trough move across northern ontario.

Expect plenty of sunshine with highs mainly in the low 50s to
even some mid 50s across the warmer spots such as the wyoming
valley and western southern tier into the lake plain. The cold
front associated with this low will move across the area after
midnight Tuesday night bringing with it a swath of rain showers
which will change over to snow showers in the cooler air behind
the front. Not expecting this will amount to much
accumulation... .At most a coating to half inch, if that by
Wednesday morning with any accumulation being mainly limited to
higher terrain areas of central ny. The other complicating
factor with this part of the forecast will be that some of the
models (gem and ecmwf) hook this front up with some moisture
coming up from the south which could enhance precip a bit over
eastern zones through the catskills. This will have to be
monitored for future updates. Lows by Wednesday morning will be
generally in the low to mid 30s.

For Wednesday, some lingering precip will continue to be
possible into the morning with otherwise a mainly dry and
cooler day behind the front. The one exception will be across
northern counties where some weak lake effect snow will be
possible around the i-90 corridor in the cold NW flow off the
lakes however this doesn't look to amount to much. Highs will
generally range from the mid 30s to low 40s, mildest over NE pa
and sullivan county.

High pressure builds in for Wednesday night setting the stage
for a cold night under mainly clear to partly cloudy skies with
light winds. Lows will be mainly in the low to mid 20s with
some teens possible across the colder spots in steuben county as
well as the catskills.

The ridge of high pressure moves off to the S E thanksgiving day
but conditions stay mainly dry with sunshine giving way to some
increasing late day clouds ahead of the next front approaching
from the north. A developing W SW flow could spark a few lake
effect flurries late day north of i-90 but this should not be of
any consequence.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
320 pm update...

upper low moves from the hudson bay into quebec Thursday night
into Friday, bringing a cold front into the upstate. We may see
a little bit of light snow over (mainly) the northern tier of
counties Friday in association with the front. By Friday
evening, though, the boundary layer flow is expected to become
southwesterly and set up a low-level warm advection pattern over
the region as the front moves back north as a warm front.

Forecast confidence wanes from there. Plenty of discrepancies are
evident with regard to timing, evolution, and impacts from the next
system. In general, expect precipitation probabilities to increase
heading into next weekend as the upper-level storm system pushes a
surface low from ontario into quebec. Depending on the upper
trough's amplitude, this could push the associated cold fronts
through the region sometime between Saturday night and Sunday night.

I've stayed fairly close to the model blend during this period given
evolutionary uncertainty.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Lake effect snow will be winding down today, but the main lake
ontario snowband will still impact ksyr and krme through 14z
and 17z respectively with below alternate minimum visibility at
times. Scattered flurries will be found elsewhere, courtesy of
lake erie moisture drifting by the area, but with few if any
associated restrictions.VFR will become predominant across the
region, with 4-6 kft agl ceilings lifting and scattering out
with time. Wnw winds of 9-12 knots, with gusts of 16-20 knots,
will slacken while backing southwest late afternoon through
evening. Though the sky will clear out into tonight, there will
also be an increasing southwesterly low level jet of 35-40
knots which will cause development of low level wind shear for
at least the ny terminals; it will be borderline for kavp.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR.

Tuesday night through Wednesday... Restrictions possible in
scattered rain snow showers.

Wednesday night through Friday... MainlyVFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... Lake effect snow warning until 1 pm est this afternoon for
nyz009-018-036-037.

Synopsis... Mse
near term... Mse
short term... Mse
long term...

aviation...



Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 81 mi55 min W 25 G 35 36°F 1014 hPa26°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 89 mi85 min W 16 G 22 35°F 1016.3 hPa (+0.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 90 mi55 min 36°F 1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last
24hr
NW23
G29
NW29
NW25
G34
W28
G37
W23
G31
NW25
G31
NW24
G33
NW23
G29
W31
G38
NW31
W28
G41
W31
G44
NW30
NW25
NW21
G27
NW18
G24
NW13
G18
NW9
G14
SE6
G10
W25
G33
SW17
G24
W19
G28
W28
G35
W27
G33
1 day
ago
SE11
G15
SE9
G15
SE9
G16
SE10
G14
SE8
G13
SE8
G15
SE11
G16
SE14
G18
SE9
G14
SE8
G14
SE10
G14
SE10
G15
S12
G18
S13
G24
S9
G18
SW14
G21
NW32
NW28
G34
W32
G39
NW31
G38
NW28
G35
NW29
NW26
G33
NW26
2 days
ago
W15
G21
W15
G22
W13
G21
W11
G17
W11
G15
SW5
G8
S6
G9
S8
SE5
G8
SE8
G12
SE7
G13
SE10
G14
SE10
G15
S12
G20
SE10
G18
SE11
G19
SE14
G19
S17
G22
S15
G22
S14
G20
SE12
G17
S10
G14
SE13
G16
S11
G18

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY13 mi29 minWSW 1010.00 miLight Snow33°F25°F72%1015.9 hPa
Elmira, Elmira / Corning Regional Airport, NY22 mi32 minW 1110.00 miOvercast37°F27°F67%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last 24hrW19
G27
W14
G19
NW12
G15
NW13
G21
NW9
G15
W11
G19
W10W12
G19
W17W13W18
G24
NW16
G20
NW13NW10W8W6W6W11W17
G22
W13
G21
W12W10
G19
W6W11
1 day agoS10S10S8SE8SE12S11
G18
S13
G20
SE11SE13S15S14
G20
S16
G22
S19
G26
S16
G24
S12
G19
S14
G21
S12
G17
NW25
G34
W18
G24
W23
G31
W17
G29
NW18
G26
W21
G30
NW20
G26
2 days ago--W13
G17
W12W12N7N4N3E3E3E4E4E4SE7SE7SE9SE10S13
G20
SE13SE10SE12S12
G20
S15
G22
S10
G19
S9
G16

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (12,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.