Sunday, May19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Spencer, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:26PM Sunday May 19, 2019 6:41 AM EDT (10:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:22PMMoonset 5:26AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201905190315;;085543 Fzus51 Kbuf 182340 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 740 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-190315- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 740 Pm Edt Sat May 18 2019
Tonight..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. Mainly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming west 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Spencer, NY
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location: 42.29, -76.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 190811
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
411 am edt Sun may 19 2019

Synopsis
Scattered rain showers across central new york this morning will
transition to widespread showers and thunderstorms by the late
afternoon over much of the area. Some of these storms may
become strong to severe. A few lingering showers and storms are
expected on Monday before a couple of dry days Tuesday into
Wednesday.

Near term through Monday
408 am update...

main concerns in the near term remain focused on the potential
for strong to possibly severe thunderstorms this afternoon
through tonight... And another round of weaker showers and storms
on Monday.

Warm front extending east from an area of low pressure moving
into the WRN great lakes this morning is slowly lifting north
across the forecast area with moisture and instability
increasing south of the front... Triggering scattered showers and
eventually a few weak thunderstorms this morning. This
convection will persist and possibly flare up around or just
after sunrise before subsiding again by mid to late morning.

The air mass will destabilize this afternoon quite rapidly with
temperatures warming into the lower 80s and dew points getting
into the lower 60s. Ml CAPE values 1000-1500 j kg and plenty of
deep layer moisture will combine with weak, but enough deep
layer shear to trigger scattered convection. The initial threat
with these storms during the afternoon and early evening hours will
be large hail and strong damaging downdrafts... With the initial
convetive mode being cellular. As the event evolves through the
evening and especially during the overnight hours the convective
mode with become more linear, with a second line of convection
potentially producing damaging winds from small bowing line
segments and also the possibility of heavy rain leading to flash
flooding. The flooding threat will likely depend on where the
storms line up and if they are able to track over the same
areas.

The severe flooding threats will likely diminish as the night
wears on and into early Monday morning... But there is still some
uncertainty with respect to this evolution. So... Will likely
need to keep a close eye on things through the overnight.

The front hangs out across the region... Mainly to the east... On
Monday with another round of convective showers and weak storms
late Monday morning and into the afternoon.

Temperatures tonight will be mild with lows only dropping into
the 60s. On Monday, temperatures will warm into the lower 80s in
ne pa but only be able to reach into the lower 70s across the
finger lakes and the WRN mohawk valley before dropping into the
lower 60s by the afternoon as the cold front continues to push
to the east.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday
330 am update...

a cooler quiet window of weather is expected up to midweek.

Surface cold front will be southeast of the region Monday night,
but the 700mb trough will still be pivoting through and cyclonic
flow will persist aloft. This may make it tough to get rid of
cloud cover, especially twin tiers northward, and there could
still even be spotty light showers in the northeastern zones.

Post-frontal cold air advection will send temperatures into the
40s for lows in most locations, though some lower elevations of
northeast pa may manage to stay above 50 degrees.

Whatever is left of stratocumulus Tuesday morning, should break
up mix out into afternoon as dry cool air mass continues to
advect in with gradually building high pressure. Overall a
fairly decent dry day, but a somewhat gusty northwest wind to
add a slight chill to highs of upper 50s-upper 60s.

Surface ridge of high pressure will drift over the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday. The resultant lack of cloud cover will
yield a fairly wide diurnal range from lows in the lower-mid 40s
to highs of mid 60s-lower 70s. Initial sunshine Wednesday may
start to become filtered by some high clouds later in the day
due to a weak upper wave riding over the ridge, yet overall
another dry pleasant day.

Long term Wednesday night through Saturday
330 am update...

large stacked dome of stagnant very warm high pressure will be
set up over the southeast; if anything retrograding a bit with
time to the gulf coast. This will organize a storm track around
its periphery, from the plains to great lakes to northeast. A
few separate passing waves look to have enough moisture and
lift for some showers in this timeframe, yet also low amplitude
ridges in between allowing for overall temperatures to trend
slightly above climatology. Diurnal instability may be present
as well along with some shear depending on the track and timing
of each system for thunderstorms.

Though there are general chances for showers and at times
thunder peppered throughout the period, there will be plenty of
dry segments as well. It is just a matter of working out timing
of those individual smaller waves riding around the large
southern high, which at this point is difficult to discern.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
A warm front will lift north across the region early this
morning with weak convective rain showers developing in WRN ny
and moving east through central ny through 14z. Will likely see
a brief break in the convection until a very unstable air mass
interacts with a weak pre-frontal trough which will track ewd
across the region this afternoon evening. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to move west to east through the
region from approximately 20z through 02z. May see another 2-3
hr break this evening behind the t-storms before more showers
and storms move in from the west around 06z early Monday
morning associated with the main cold front. May see ifr
conditions in any thunderstorm along with gusty winds 30kt or
more.

Winds will generally remain southerly... Increasing this
afternoon with gusts to 20 kt possible. Higher gusts in ts.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Monday... Restrictions possible in rain
showers and thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Wednesday...VFR with high pressure.

Thursday... Possible restrictions in showers.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Bjt
near term... Bjt
short term... Mdp
long term... Mdp
aviation... Bjt tac


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 81 mi47 min SSE 8 G 9.9 58°F 1011.2 hPa51°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 89 mi41 min SSW 12 G 17 69°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 90 mi47 min 68°F 1009.4 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY13 mi45 minSE 410.00 miA Few Clouds62°F57°F84%1014.1 hPa
Elmira, Elmira / Corning Regional Airport, NY22 mi48 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds52°F48°F86%1014.3 hPa

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5W4W3CalmSW4W73W73NW7CalmN4E4E3E4E3E7E5E5SE5SE7S9S8SE4
1 day agoSW5S6S9S8S8SW6W4NW11NW12N8
G15
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NW10NW7N6N5CalmN3CalmNW4NW4CalmCalmNW4N6
2 days agoCalmCalmW55NW7NW6CalmNW10
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NW7N9N5CalmCalmCalmSE4E5SE5S10S9SE7S7S8S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.