Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Algonac, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 7:54PM Thursday March 30, 2017 6:45 AM EDT (10:45 UTC) Moonrise 8:03AMMoonset 10:04PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ166 Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- 349 Am Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
Today..East winds 15 to 25 knots. A slight chance of rain showers through mid morning...then a chance of rain showers late this morning. Rain showers likely this afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 5 to 7 feet.
Tonight..East winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southeast 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of Thunderstorms in the morning. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest 10 knots or less. A chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Sunday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Waves 1 foot or less.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ166 Expires:201703301430;;300524 FZUS61 KCLE 300749 GLFLE OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE ERIE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 349 AM EDT THU MAR 30 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE ERIE .SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS LAKE ERIE TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE 29.40 INCHES MOVES EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS. LOW PRESSURE 29.50 WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FRIDAY AND EXIT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE 30.20 INCHES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LEZ164>168-301430-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Algonac, MI
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location: 42.29, -81.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 300750
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
350 am edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure over missouri will track toward northern ohio by
Friday. A warm front will push northeast ahead of the low with a
the cold front occluding by Friday. The low will move east of
the area by Friday night. High pressure from the upper midwest
will move overhead by Sunday.

Near term /through tonight/
Closed low tracking across the plains is progged to slide a little
south of east across missouri before beginning to lift out
toward ohio tonight. Wide swath of warm advection and an
increasing low level jet will continue to generate warm
advection showers this morning into early afternoon. The showers
will fight the dry boundary layer but will continue to spread
east and many areas will get at least a passing shower or two.

Cannot rule out a localized rumble of thunder but would rather
emphasize the thunderstorm threat later today into tonight as
the upper trough and occluded front move in.

The models continue to advertise several rounds of convection
spinning around the low, the first which should arrive in northwest
ohio this afternoon. A little concerned for convection being
enhanced in the vicinity of the warm front which will likely remain
in northwest ohio. Favorable shear profiles will exist, little
surface CAPE but increasing CAPE aloft as well as a decent wind
field aloft. It may be difficult to establish a wind threat down to
the surface given the likely inversion but something to be watched.

The main round of convection ahead of the occluded front should
enter western ohio tonight and slide across the entire forecast
area with showers. There should be enough elevated CAPE for a
decent chance of thunderstorms although the highest threat may
remain just south of the forecast area. Areas that get several
rounds of showers/storms may end up with more than an inch of
rain.

Short term /Friday through Saturday night/
Showers and potentially a few rumbles of thunder will persist on
Friday especially across northeast ohio and northwest pennsylvania
Friday morning. The surface low and upper low will slide across the
forecast area and the lows may become more stacked allowing for a
more phased and deeper development of showers. Will have to watch
the QPF across NE oh/nw pa if the showers continue to redevelop in
the same areas.

The system should move east Friday afternoon and evening and cooler
and more stable air will spread across the area. It will likely take
a while to shake the cloud cover on Saturday and a few showers could
linger in the snowbelt. Highs on Saturday only in the 40s except
perhaps lower 50s northwest ohio if the Sun comes out later in the
day.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/
High pressure over the area Sunday will mean dry conditions and
temperatures in the lower and middle 50s. This high will begin to
slide off to the east Sunday night.

A complex upper-level and surface pattern is in store for late
Sunday night into Monday. A closed upper-level low will swing across
the tennessee valley Monday with an associated surface low
cutting from the deep south into the carolinas by Monday night.

A second, weaker upper-level trough will move eastward across
the northern great lakes region Monday. The GFS has a weak
surface low cutting northeast across the central great lakes due
to its more pronounced short-wave trough swinging through,
while the ECMWF keeps the surface low well north into canada
with near zonal flow across much of the great lakes.

With these significant differences between the models, what this
means exactly for our area is still uncertain. The southern low will
likely prevent ample deep moisture from making it this far north,
but there should be enough moisture around combined with some weak
forcing to at least get scattered showers across the area. The long
range global models differ in the exact tracks of these features,
with the ECMWF generally being the farthest north and the GFS being
the farthest south. Even with the GFS so far south, cutting off the
main moisture source, it still brings significant moisture into the
area Monday with widespread rain. It seems unlikely for this to
happen with such a strong low across the deep south, so have trended
more toward the emcwf - what else is new? For now have chance pops
everywhere until we get a better handle on how these features will
evolve.

A ridge will build in behind the trough(s) Tuesday into Tuesday
night, bringing an end to the rain chances through at least
Wednesday morning. Another low will approach from the west Wednesday
evening into Wednesday night. This will bring widespread
precipitation to the area as a cold front moves through sometime
Wednesday night or Thursday. The exact timing is still uncertain,
but if the front holds off until Thursday, there will be a better
chance of seeing some thunderstorms.

Aviation /06z Thursday through Monday/
Ceilings will slowly lower and thicken through the overnight as
a warm front lifts into ohio. MVFR ceilings may arrive across
nw ohio by mid morning with areas of light rain beginning
shortly after. It will take longer for this to occur across the
eastern half of northern ohio into NW pa. Some ifr will be
possible with heavier showers in the morning hours. There may be
a general break in precipitation for several hours this
afternoon, but additional showers and likely a few thunderstorms
will develop and move in from the southwest across all TAF sites
this evening into the overnight hours.

Winds will become east at all locations and increase through
the morning. Winds will become gusty at times beginning later
this morning and continue into the afternoon. Gusts do not
appear that they will exceed the 20 to 25 knot range.

Outlook... Non-vfr continuing into Friday. Non-vfr possible
Sunday night into Monday.

Marine
A small craft advisory continues for the western 2 lake nearshore
zones through 5 pm today as easterly winds should allow for waves to
reach 4 to 6 feet, highest during the late morning and early
afternoon hours. For the rest of the marine nearshore, winds should
be just offshore, which will prevent waves from reaching 4 feet.

Otherwise, winds are expected to be fairly light through the rest of
the forecast period.

Cle watches/warnings/advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for lez142-
143.

Synopsis... Kosarik
near term... Kosarik
short term... Kosarik
long term... Mottice
aviation... Mottice
marine... Mottice


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AGCM4 40 mi46 min 40°F 1019.4 hPa (-2.3)
45169 47 mi26 min SE 18 G 21 39°F 37°F6 ft35°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 49 mi46 min ENE 16 G 18 40°F 1019.3 hPa (-1.9)38°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 53 mi46 min E 17 G 20 41°F 1018.6 hPa (-3.1)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH54 mi53 minE 109.00 miLight Rain46°F32°F58%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmN5N7N7N6N6--NE10NE11NE11NE6NE8NE5NE5E8E8NE8NE7NE9NE10NE6E10
1 day agoNE10NE7NE6NE4N6NE5CalmW3W4W6W7W5NW5SW4NW7NE5CalmW3W4N6NW3NW5NW3W3
2 days agoSW12SW12SW9SW11SW11SW9W8W4NW6NW3CalmW3CalmNE3NE5NE5E4E3NE3NE5E3CalmNE4NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.