Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Algonac, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 5:28PM Friday January 19, 2018 6:27 AM EST (11:27 UTC) Moonrise 9:22AMMoonset 8:04PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ166 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 400 Am Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Today..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of drizzle overnight.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of light rain or drizzle during the day, then a chance of rain showers Sunday night.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
LEZ166 Expires:201801191515;;671042 FZUS61 KCLE 190900 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 400 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure of 29.30 inches will pass north of the Great Lakes tonight. High pressure of 30.40 inches centered across the Gulf Coast will drift east and move off the southeast coast Sunday. Low pressure of 29.80 inches will track across the central Great Lakes Monday night, pulling another cold front across Lake Erie on Tuesday. LEZ061-162>169-191515-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Algonac, MI
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location: 42.29, -81.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 191109
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
609 am est Fri jan 19 2018

Synopsis
A large area of high pressure will build east across the southern
united states today and eventually move off the east coast. The
high will extend a ridge north across the local area today through
Sunday. A deepening low pressure will move northeast out of the
oklahoma panhandle to the western great lakes by Monday evening
forcing a cold front east across the local area Monday night. High
pressure will build into the area from the west through the middle
of the week.

Near term through Saturday
No major changes with this update. Just made some minor
adjustments to hourly temperatures. Otherwise, some scattered
high clouds are beginning to stream into the northern portions
of the forecast area at this time. Still should see a lot of sun
today.

Previous discussion...

nearly zonal flow will occur across much of the united states today
and tonight. A digging trough and associated low pressure system
will move east into the western united states tonight and to the
rockies by Sunday. This feature will begin to amplify a broad ridge
over the eastern united states through this forecast period. In
response to the ridging in the east, a surface high pressure will
become the dominant weather feature across the entire eastern united
states through Saturday. As the high moves east across the southern
tier states, a return south to southwest flow will persist through
the period. Mid level warm advection to 10 degrees c is expected by
tonight. However, mid level cooling at 850 mb will drop temperatures
back to around 4 to 6 degrees c tonight with further cooling
Saturday.

The main issue with this forecast will be temperatures. Temperatures
are not expected to be as warm as previously thought in the previous
model runs for Saturday. As 850 mb temperatures cool back down,
temperatures will stay in the 30s for highs. Todays highs will be
warmer than yesterday with the low and mid level warm advection
expected.

Short term Saturday night through Monday night
Shallow moisture advection will continue Saturday night through
Sunday with a prolonged period of southwest flow on the back side of
surface high pressure over the southeastern states. Isentropic
ascent below 4k feet on Saturday night and Sunday will make drizzle
with light QPF amounts the most likely weather type and adjusted the
forecast accordingly. Given the increasing cloud field and low level
moisture, also raised min temperatures a couple degrees on Saturday
night into the lower 30s. Temperatures could dip below freezing in a
few locations early but should come up as any drizzle begins so not
expecting freezing drizzle to be an issue. Although temperatures
will continue to warm on Sunday, the warming will be suppressed by
overcast skies and increasing moisture.

Low pressure is still forecast to track out of the plains on Monday,
continuing northeast across the central great lakes through Tuesday.

The ECMWF remains on the slower side of the model guidance with this
system with the GFS continuing to slow and trend in this direction.

Scattered showers will be on the increase by Sunday night as deeper
moisture and shortwave energy approaches the region in advance of
the upper level low curling northeast out of the plains. Lowered
pops on Monday morning with best chances for rain coming Monday
afternoon into Monday night ahead of the cold front wrapping in from
the west. QPF with this system still appears to be below a half inch
for most areas. Much of the area will be near 50 degrees on Monday
ahead of the front which should melt the remainder of the snow. Have
also slowed down the transition to snow Monday night into Tuesday as
the boundary layer takes some time to cool back down.

Long term Tuesday through Thursday
Upper level low pulls away to the northeast Tuesday night with
another shortwave approaching from the northwest on Wednesday.

Precipitation type will have changed over to all snow by Tuesday
night with snow showers lingering in the snowbelt into Wednesday
before tapering off. The cool down will be short lived with warm
advection and a ridge building in aloft already from Thursday into
Friday.

Aviation 06z Friday through Tuesday
Mainly some high clouds will slide through the area but should
remain thin and scattered. Main issue will be winds at the
surface at 12 to 15 knots with higher gusts expected.

Outlook... Non-vfr Monday through Tuesday.

Marine
Southwest winds of 15-20 knots today will increase to 20-25 knots
overnight as low pressure passes north of the lakes. Southerly winds
will decrease Saturday night into Sunday then increase out of the
southwest late Monday as a cold front wraps in from the southwest.

The flow will finally shift around to the west as low pressure
departs to the east Tuesday night.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lombardy
near term... Lombardy
short term... Kec
long term... Kec
aviation... Lombardy
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
AGCM4 40 mi40 min 22°F 1014 hPa
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 49 mi40 min SW 13 G 16 25°F 1017.1 hPa13°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 53 mi28 min SSW 6 G 11 24°F 1014.9 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH54 mi35 minS 1110.00 miFair25°F12°F58%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS9S8S7SW8SW8SW9SW8SW11SW13SW12S14S13SW16
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2 days agoSW12SW10SW13SW19S11SW9SW9SW10SW10SW10SW10SW11SW13SW11SW9SW11SW8SW10SW10S8
G17
SW8SW6SW9S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.