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LEZ166 Expires:202405080215;;800036 Fzus61 Kcle 071937 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 337 pm edt Tue may 7 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis - A warm front sweeps northeastward across lake erie tonight. Low pressure of 29.50 inches moves eastward across the central great lakes and toward northern new york state on Wednesday, allowing the trailing cold front to sweep eastward across lake erie. Behind the front, a ridge averaging 30.00 inches should attempt to build from northern ontario and vicinity through Wednesday night as a separate frontal low of 29.50 inches moves from near central illinois toward central indiana. This frontal low should wobble east-northeastward from central indiana toward the gulf of maine on Thursday through Friday and allow a trough averaging 29.70 inches to become established over and near lake erie. A ridge averaging 30.00 inches should build eastward across lake erie Friday night before another trough averaging 29.70 inches arrives from the western great lakes on Saturday.
lez165>167-080215- vermilion to avon point oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- avon point to willowick oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-willowick to geneva-on-the- lake oh beyond 5nm off shoreline to us-canadian border- 337 pm edt Tue may 7 2024
Tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms late this evening. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet. Wednesday night - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northeast. Showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Thursday night - North winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Friday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 5 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Sunday - West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 072109 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 509 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will lift north of the area this evening before a cold front sweeps east across the region late tonight into Wednesday morning. A series of disturbances will cross the local area Wednesday night through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
500 PM Update...
A Tornado Watch has been issued for the western 2 tiers of counties that will remain in effect through 11PM EDT. Weak showers are currently moving east across the area, but are not acting to stabilize the atmosphere. Upstream scattered thunderstorms will continue to strengthen and move into the watch area around 8PM EDT. A couple tornadoes are possible, along with damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail.

Previous Discussion...
The first round of showers and non-severe storms, associated with a shortwave, are lifting across the local area this afternoon. The showers and storms are already showing signs of weakening. It's important to note that this round of precipitation is not the main show for severe weather today; the main show is currently blossoming across northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana which will continue moving east towards the CWA this afternoon into the first few hours of this evening. By 8 PM or so, the storms should be approaching or entering the western reaches of the CWA before continuing to track east through the CWA through about Midnight.

Overall, the severe weather threat remains unchanged and there's still potential for all hazards of severe weather (tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind gusts) given the impressive wind field, effective bulk shear values of over 60 knots, and hodographs/soundings that support potential for strong and rotating updrafts, but there's still a touch of uncertainty regarding the instability and warm air/moisture advection. Latest high resolution guidance members have a narrow corridor of MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg in the western and especially southwestern zones of the CWA (aka the area in the Enhanced and Slight risks), but this window may be brief which could make the difference between a severe weather risk and a more significant severe weather risk. However, as of writing, MLCAPE values are currently around 1000 J/kg just to the west of the CWA with slightly higher values further southwest and expect instability to increase over the next several hours so don't have concerns with the forecast at this point. Biggest area of concern for severe weather potential will lie near the I-75 corridor, where soundings support an environment favorable for tornadoes and large hail.
Storms should weaken as they move east across the CWA especially as the sun goes down and diurnal instability wanes. Storms should exit to the east near or shortly after Midnight tonight.

Generally expect dry weather for much of Wednesday before the next wave of showers/thunderstorms lifts northeast towards the CWA by Wednesday night.

Tonight's lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with Wednesday's highs climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday. Wednesday night's lows will be in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Upper-level trough swings southeast across the Great Lakes region on Thursday with the associated surface low moving east across the Ohio Valley. Rain showers are expected with isolated thunderstorms, especially during the first half of the day. Precipitation chances decrease through the evening/overnight hours with isolated to scattered light rain showers lingering into the day Friday as troughing persists on the backside of the departing low. High pressure briefly builds in Friday night.

Temperatures in the short term period will be a bit cooler than the previous few days as that first upper-level trough swings through, with highs in the 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Another upper-level trough and weak low move southeast across the Great Lakes region with scattered showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday (best PoPs of 50-60% on Saturday). Uncertainty in the synoptic-scale pattern makes for a low confidence forecast on Monday and Tuesday. Main trend is for low chance PoPs each day and gradually warming temperatures (likely in the 70s by Tuesday).

AVIATION /18Z Tuesday THROUGH Sunday/
VFR is expected through most of this afternoon, but a brief period of MVFR is possible as a round of showers with isolated embedded thunderstorms lifts into the western half of the area.
Otherwise, the next opportunity for non-VFR will arrive near 00Z tonight as more organized convection moves in from the west.
Generally expecting MVFR visibilities, but IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings are possible within the more robust thunderstorms.
Storms may be strong to severe with gusts to 50+ knots, large hail, and tornadoes, but strong storms will be scattered in nature and there is still uncertainty in whether or not strong storms will move directly over a TAF site. The greatest potential for strong wind gusts will be at KTOL/KFDY in addition to KCLE/KMFD/KCAK. VFR should return to most terminals once showers/storms end later tonight, but some MVFR may linger at KERI/KYNG as a cold front crosses the area late tonight into Wednesday morning.

Winds will be out of the south/southeast at 6 to 12 knots through early this evening with northeasterly winds expected near the lakeshore of NE OH/NW PA. Expect flow to shift to the southwest tonight before becoming more westerly towards the end of the TAF period.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms through Sunday.

MARINE
A warm front lifts north across Lake Erie this evening with winds becoming southwest around 15 knots. A subsequent cold front moves east across the region late tonight into early Wednesday morning with westerly winds of 10-15 knots expected through the day Wednesday. Low pressure moves east across the Ohio Valley on Thursday with easterly to northeastly flow Thursday morning becoming more north and northwest by Thursday night. A small craft advisory is possible primarily for wave heights around 4 feet in the central basin Thursday and Thursday night. A weak low moves southeast across the Great Lakes but winds look to stay at or below 10 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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