Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Algonac, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 9:11PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 1:12 AM EDT (05:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:06AMMoonset 11:34PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ166 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 939 Pm Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
Overnight..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning...then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ166 Expires:201706280815;;928195 FZUS61 KCLE 280139 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 939 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.10 inches will move across the Ohio Valley tonight, reaching the East Coast late Wednesday. A warm front will develop over the Mississippi Valley and move northeast across the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday. Low pressure 29.60 inches from the northern Plains will reach the central Great Lakes Friday and bring a cold front to near the lake. The next low 29.70 inches will move northeast across the western lakes and take the cold front across Lake Erie Saturday. LEZ061-166>169-280815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Algonac, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.29, -81.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kcle 280505
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
105 am edt Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
Surface high pressure will ridge northward across ohio overnight
then move east of the area on Wednesday. Low pressure will
track across the northern lakes Thursday dragging another front
across the area. The front will then stall and linger over the
local area into Friday.

Near term through today
A couple sprinkles trying to make it across the lake toward
erie. These look like they will fall apart before they reach
shore. Otherwise the only changes made were to hourly
temperature and cloud cover grids to reflect current trends.

Previous discussion...

the existing cumulus field will dissipate during the evening
leaving skies mainly clear overnight. Tomorrow will also be a
quiet day with temperatures finally starting to warm back up.

Have stayed to the cool side of guidance for highs especially in
the south where it remains fairly wet. Have made some changes
for the Wednesday night period. The models continue to show
precip remaining north of the area through daybreak Thursday.

This scenario has been consistent from day to day and not sure
why it keeps sneaking back into the forecast. Have gone ahead
and trimmed back chances and only the very northern end of the
area will see chances prior to 12z Thursday. Have used a blend
of guidance temps for Wednesday and Wednesday night. If clouds
are slow to arrive Wednesday night then temps in the southeast
may need to be lowered some.

Short term tonight through Friday night
A weak front will be over the northern third of the area Thursday.

This may cause a few showers or storms to form Thursday morning near
lake erie into northwest ohio. However, the better chance for
thunderstorms will come Thursday afternoon as the combination of
lift from the front, increasing instability from daytime heating,
and an approaching shortwave trigger thunderstorm development.

Severe storms will be possible on Thursday as instability on the
order of 1500 to 2000 j kg of MLCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear of 30-40
knots form a favorable environment. Damaging winds look to be the
primary threat followed by hail and perhaps an isolated tornado
along the frontal boundary. The amount of morning convection cloud
cover will determine how substantial the severe threat will be. The
more cloud cover precipitation early in the period, the lesser the
threat for severe storms. Irregardless of the severe threat, storm
motion will be out of the west southwest, which will be nearly
parallel with the boundary. This could lead to some flooding with
training thunderstorms. Still some uncertainty this far out, so stay
tuned for more details.

A chance for storms will continue Thursday night into Friday as a
large trough begins to move in from the west. A cold front will
swing through from the west late Friday into Friday night. Depending
on the exact timing of the cold front and the amount of
precipitation along it, a threat for severe storms could be a
possibility once again during Friday afternoon evening. The cold
front will be east of the area come Saturday morning with at least a
brief window of drier weather behind it. However, by Saturday
afternoon we may see storms develop once again with daytime heating
and cooler temperatures aloft leading to sufficient instability.

Seasonable temperatures are expected through the short term.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Long term period will be characterized with near normal temperatures
with an upper trough swinging through the great lakes Sunday, but
the upper pattern remaining fairly zonal over the local area through
the period. Lingering showers are possible Sunday, mainly east, with
the departing great lakes trough. After mainly dry conditions Sunday
night, periods of shower thunderstorm chances return Monday through
Tuesday as a few disturbances move through the upper flow.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions will continue through the forecast period with
high pressure over the upper ohio valley. Some clouds over lake
erie due to weak surface trough will move east of area this
morning. After that cirrus shield from storms to the west will
overspread the area.

Outlook... Non-VFR conditions possible in thunderstorms
Thursday into Friday.

Marine
Winds will turn southerly Wednesday and remain rather weak.

Winds could increase to around 15 knots in the afternoon across
the western basin. Southerly winds will increase Wednesday night
at 15 to 20 knots. While a small craft advisory is possible,
the southerly nature of the winds suggest one is not expected at
this time. Southwest winds may increase a touch more Thursday,
so a small craft advisory may be needed. Southwest winds of 10
to 15 knots will then continue through Saturday.

Expect decent chances for thunderstorms Thursday through
Saturday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kubina
near term... Kubina mullen
short term... Mottice
long term... Greenawalt
aviation... Djb
marine... Mottice


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45132 - Port Stanley 38 mi72 min SW 7.8 G 7.8 65°F 65°F2 ft1017.6 hPa (+0.9)
45164 40 mi72 min WSW 18 65°F 67°F1018.1 hPa (+0.7)
AGCM4 40 mi42 min 58°F 1017.6 hPa
45147 - Lake St Clair 42 mi72 min ENE 5.8 G 5.8 69°F 69°F1017.1 hPa (+1.1)
45169 47 mi22 min SW 14 G 18 67°F 69°F2 ft1018.9 hPa53°F
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 49 mi42 min S 12 G 15 61°F 1018.2 hPa45°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 53 mi72 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 64°F 1018.3 hPa (+1.4)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last
24hr
S11
G15
NW6
NW9
G12
W17
G21
W19
G25
W16
G22
W18
W18
G22
W17
NW15
G19
W17
G22
W19
W14
G17
W18
W18
G22
W19
W17
G21
SW16
SW16
S7
S7
S9
S12
G15
S12
G15
1 day
ago
W3
S8
S10
S9
S8
S10
G13
S8
N5
SW10
G20
W14
G17
W20
W22
W24
W21
W20
G25
W21
W20
W20
W18
W15
SW12
G18
NW15
S5
G8
S12
G15
2 days
ago
W13
G16
W12
SW9
G14
SW12
G16
SW20
SW18
SW20
SW23
G28
W30
W27
W23
G29
W24
W21
W21
W18
W17
W16
W13
G18
NW8
G11
NW10
NW2

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH54 mi19 minS 910.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F44°F50%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last 24hrSW9
G19
S10SW4SW10W15
G23
W14W15SW9W16
G23
W13W13
G18
W10W13
G19
W14W12W12W9W9SW5SW4S7S6S8S9
1 day agoSW10SW8SW7SW9SW10SW9SW9SW10W11W15
G21
W17
G22
W14
G22
W16W14
G23
W11W11W12W10SW10S9SW18
G25
S4S9S10
2 days agoNW13NW12NW9SW8SW7SW9SW11SW12SW12SW17
G31
W19
G26
W24
G31
W19
G27
W20W18W16W11W11W11W11W12SW11W7
G23
SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (1,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.