Sunrise 6:18 AM   Sunset 8:32 PM Moonrise 3:08 AM   Moonset 2:14 PM

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LEZ166 Expires:202405030815;;520027 Fzus61 Kcle 030126 Glfle
open lake forecast for lake erie national weather service cleveland oh 926 pm edt Thu may 2 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake erie
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis - A warm front will lift across lake erie tonight before low pressure 29.90 inches passes just south of the lake Friday. The low will drag a weak cold front across the area Friday night before stalling near the appalachians Saturday. Weak high pressure 30.00 inches passes over the lake late Saturday, followed by another cold front late Saturday night into Sunday. The front will start to lift back north as a warm front Monday and Tuesday.
lez165>167-030815- vermilion to avon point oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border- avon point to willowick oh beyond 5 nm off shoreline to us- canadian border-willowick to geneva-on-the- lake oh beyond 5nm off shoreline to us-canadian border- 926 pm edt Thu may 2 2024
Overnight - East winds 5 to 15 knots. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Friday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms through early afternoon, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers likely overnight. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Saturday - East winds around 10 knots. Showers likely. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Saturday night - East winds around 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet. Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely during the day, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 030603 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 203 AM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will lift north across the area tonight into Friday, followed by a cold front late Friday into Saturday.
Another cold front will move east across the area on Sunday, then stall across the southern Ohio Valley on Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Rain has been confined to far Northwest Ohio including the Toledo area. Locally heavy rain has occurred with some thunderstorms and radar estimates of 1.25-1.50" in Oregon. More rain is yet to come and will monitor precipitation amounts. It does look like the rain should be exiting towards 07Z with a break for a few hours.

9:33 PM EDT Update...
The forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. Most showers and thunderstorms have dissipated soon after entering our CWA from the southwest this evening due to much less elevated instability toward the northeast and boundary layer stabilization via nocturnal cooling. However, isentropic ascent along the upper-reaches of the warm front is expected to tap into additional moisture from the southern Gulf Stream and Gulf of Mexico, and destabilize overnight tonight through early tomorrow afternoon. As a result, expect isolated showers and thunderstorms to become more prevalent over our CWA, especially after midnight tonight. See discussions below for further details.

7:50 PM EDT Update...
Most of the forecast remains valid. However, freshened POP's, QPF, and sensible WX grids through early Friday afternoon. These changes are based on latest trends in obs and model guidance.
The surface warm front is beginning to drift NE'ward into far- southwestern parts of our CWA The warm front will drift NE'ward across the rest of our CWA through early Friday afternoon.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to accompany the warm front passage due to the following: Moist isentropic ascent releasing weak, yet sufficient elevated CAPE along the upper-reaches of the front and convergence/associated moist ascent along the surface warm front releasing sufficient CAPE amidst a surface-based effective inflow layer through this early evening and again late tomorrow morning through early afternoon given an expected typical diurnal cycle in boundary layer temperatures, CIN, and CAPE. At this time, the upcoming cold front is expected to drift E'ward through our CWA late tomorrow morning through early evening. Additional and scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected amidst a favorable thermodynamic environment along and ahead of the cold front. See discussion below for further details.

Previous Discussion...
An active short term period is in store with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected Friday afternoon and evening.
Severe weather chances remain very low, although can't rule out a strong storm or two, especially east of the I-71 corridor Friday afternoon and evening. Heavy rain may also accompany any stronger storms.

For this evening and overnight, starting to see signs of the warm front across the Ohio Valley, evident by a well-defined cu field surging north. Have kept the chance for an isolated shower/storm later this evening across NW OH as the interaction between the Lake Erie lake breeze front and warm front could result in increased convergence and lift. As we head overnight into Friday, a cold front will begin to approach the area from the west, with shower and thunderstorm coverage expected to increase across portions of southern Michigan, Indiana, and eventually into Northwest Ohio. Will need to monitor outflow patterns from this overnight convection as these boundaries appear to be driving the shower/thunderstorm initiation for Friday afternoon and evening.

The updated SPC SWODY2 keeps much of the area in a general thunder risk for Friday. This appears reasonable given weak MLCAPE of 500 J/kg or less in addition to bulk shear less than 30 knots. However, still can't rule out a stronger storm or two with wind being the primary risk as low-level lapse rates remain elevated, especially east of the I-71 corridor ahead of the pre-frontal nocturnal convection. Would typically also be concerned about heavy rainfall given slow storm motions, but seasonable PWATs less than 1.50 inches should limit the overall flash flooding threat, especially as current FFGs are hovering around 2" in 3 hours.

Only big change to the temperature forecast on Friday was to utilize the 25% NBM which increased highs out east ahead of the convection, and lowered highs out west where showers/thunderstorms are expected to linger.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The weekend will start off unsettled as a weak stationary front will be draped in the vicinity of eastern Ohio, western PA, and the northern Appalachians Saturday due to rather strong mid/upper ridging holding over the eastern CONUS and the upper support lifting well to the NW over James Bay. The front will essentially be washed out and only serve as a weak wind shift, but pooling low-level moisture near and along it combined with weak upper level diffluence will keep showers and a few thunderstorms going, especially over areas east of I-77. The coverage of the precip is uncertain though because there is no real forcing other than moisture pooling and weak diffluence, and cloud cover will hold down instability, with only a few hundred joules of SBCAPE projected by HRRR guidance. This may lead to a lot of drizzle and low clouds, with the heavier showers and thunderstorms more limited. Nevertheless, since forcing is weak, the flow through the column will be weak leading to slow moving showers/storms which could lead to localized flooding, especially in areas that see heavy rain Friday night. Deep layer flow parallel to the stalled front supports this potential with any deeper convection that manages to develop, but PWATs will not be especially high (averaging 1.50 inches which is climatologically normal). This will truly keep the flood threat localized, with most areas just seeing some beneficial rain.

By Saturday night and Sunday, a weak mid/upper shortwave moving through the central Great Lakes will slowly push a secondary cold front across the region from NW to SE, which will overtake the old frontal boundary. This will start to gradually push the best chances for showers/storms farther SE, so have the highest PoPs gradually shifting farther SE Saturday night and Sunday. By Sunday night, it looks like the boundary will finally be far enough away for mostly dry conditions as surface ridging and associated drier air build in from the north, so kept PoPs mostly slight chance Sunday night. All in all, not a washout this weekend by any means, but Sunday will have less coverage of precip than Saturday.

Highs Saturday will be kept in the low/mid 70s in most areas, with upper 60s in far eastern Ohio and western PA where clouds and precip will be greater. Sunday will be slightly warmer with highs in the low/mid 70s areawide thanks to a bit more sunshine and less precip.
Lows Saturday night will range from the mid 50s to low 60s, with low/mid 50s Sunday night and decreasing humidity as the drier air finally works in.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
An active pattern will quickly return next week as a strong mid/upper shortwave trough moves through the Rockies Monday then gradually lifts into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest by midweek. This will force downstream height rises over the eastern CONUS, with flat ridging across the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic regions. The frontal boundary from Sunday will start to lift back north as a warm front in response to the height rises and developing southerly flow Monday and will then set up as a quasi-stationary east-west front/baroclinic zone Tuesday through Thursday. Shortwave impulses ejecting out of the broader upstream trough will traverse this boundary and interact with increasingly rich low-level moisture and instability to generate multiple MCS clusters. This could bring strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall. The overall pattern is becoming more clear, however, the details are still very uncertain regarding where this boundary will ultimately set-up. It will likely waver a bit north and south. As of now, the strongest shortwave seems to be Tuesday and Tuesday night, so have the highest PoPs at that time. However, given the uncertainty with this pattern, kept a broad brushed, blended PoP forecast with at least high chance PoPs Monday through Thursday. It will definitely not rain all the time, but again, we could have multiple rounds.

Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Monday will warm back into the upper 70s to low 80s Tuesday and Wednesday, then cool slightly into the mid/upper 70s Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/
Thunderstorms will continue to impact TOL through approximately 0630Z and then it seems a break in preceipitaiton is likely for several hours. A warm front is located from west central Indiana towards Dayton, OH. This warm front will lift north into the area this morning bringing a continued chance of showers. Timing of thunderstorms will be a challenge through the daytime hours as the area continues to moisten with a slow moving area of low pressure drifting east across Central Ohio. There will be a little more time for heating across north central and northeast Ohio and have included a Tempo for thunderstorms between 17-23Z in Ohio, and as late as 02Z at ERI. The airmass will be moist so heavy rain and IFR ceilings and visibilities will be possible with any thunderstorms. Outside of showers and thunderstorms, ceilings will tend to be VFR until after 02Z when a weak cold front settles south into the area. Expect ceilings to trend towards MVFR towards the end of the TAF cycle.

Winds will generally be 10 knots or less through the period and somewhat variable. Broad low pressure will result in easterly winds ahead of the low, backing to northeasterly near the lakeshore, and eventually westerly behind the low.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms through this Tuesday.

MARINE
Quiet weather will continue on the lake through the period as pressure gradients remain weak. The only impactful winds and waves will come from localized stronger thunderstorms. E to NE winds will decrease to 5-10 knots tonight and Friday, with ENE winds then increasing back to 10-15 knots Saturday before turning SE at 10-15 knots Saturday night and finally swinging all the way around to W to NW Sunday while decreasing to 5-10 knots. NE winds will then redevelop Sunday night and increase to 10-15 knots Monday before turning SE Monday night and Tuesday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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