Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Algonac, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 5:08PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 6:31 PM EST (23:31 UTC) Moonrise 1:05PMMoonset 11:09PM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ166 Lake Erie Open Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- 349 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots. A chance of sleet, rain showers and freezing rain early, then freezing rain likely, a chance of sleet, snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers late in the morning. Snow showers, freezing rain and rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers, snow showers and freezing rain in the evening, then rain showers likely with a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds to 30 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Friday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet.
LEZ166 Expires:201811150315;;306784 FZUS61 KCLE 142049 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 349 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure 30.60 inches will move across the Central Great Lakes today, then off the New England coast Thursday. Weak low pressure 30.00 inches will move across the Ohio Valley on Thursday as a East Coast low 29.40 inches, tracks along the East coast into the Canadian maritime on Friday. Meanwhile low pressure of 29.50 inches will move across the Upper Great Lakes on Friday, pulling a cold front east across Lake Erie. High pressure of 30.20 inches will set up across the eastern Great Lakes over the weekend. LEZ165>167-150315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Algonac, MI
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location: 42.29, -81.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 142037
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
337 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over the great lakes will continue to move northeast
of the area tonight. Low pressure will develop over the tennessee
valley region and move north into the ohio valley by Thursday night.

The low will become absorbed in an east coast low pressure system
Thursday night. The east coast low will develop near jacksonville,
florida tonight. Another area of high pressure will build northeast
across the southern states to ohio valley region by Friday night. A
cold front will sag south across the area Saturday night.

Near term through Thursday night
A potential winter type scenario is shaping up across the local area
in the next 12 to 24 hours. The upper level pattern will begin to
trend toward a progressive one as a deep upper level low pressure
system pivots slowly northeast into the ohio valley by Thursday
night. The upper level low will slowly weaken and dissipate into a
negatively tilted trough. This will result in cyclogenesis in and
around the tennessee valley that will track northeast toward the
local area. Meanwhile, a coastal low will develop and move
northeast along the east coast and will eventually absorb the
surface low pressure system over our area.

The surface low pressure system will force moisture to stream north
toward the region. Initially, the lower levels will be quite dry
but we are expecting this layer to moisten over a few hours tonight
resulting in precipitation reaching the surface.

Model soundings are fairly certain freezing rain will occur across
the south but they suggest the air temperature will hug the zero
line in a fairly deep layer in the north. We think the
precipitation will be freezing rain that will transition to a mixed
precipitation over much of northern ohio. The exception will be
northwest pennsylvania and ashtabula where the onset of
precipitation will be later. Our concern is the potential for light
freezing rain drizzle that will last well into the evening tomorrow
evening. To downplay the impact of this event, we are only
expecting a light glazing of ice. Most impacts should be to
untreated surfaces.

As far as temperatures go, looking at lows into the 20s overnight as
cold air advection continues. Not much of a warm-up expected
Thursday expecting highs just above the freezing mark. Highs in the
northeast should be in the 30 to 32 degree range for the extended
freezing precipitation later into the evening.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
East coast storm will reach the new england states by Friday
afternoon. This will allow the next upper level trough to move into
the area which should provide an increase in snow chances. It doesnt
appear that the snow will be significant on Friday. We will need to
monitor the lake effect snow Friday night into Saturday across the
primary snowbelt. The next cold front will move into the central
great lakes by Saturday night.

Temperatures will be below seasonal averages. Highs generally int eh
upper 30s to around 40.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
Frontal boundary will be in the region on Sunday. As some jet energy
moves across the region on Sunday night into Monday we should nudge
the boundary out of the region with a brief period of lake effect
snow showers possible. The troughiness then persists across the
central great lakes into Wednesday with chances of snow persisting
across the primary snowbelt. Something for us to watch but current
thinking is that amounts will remain on the light side.

High temperatures mainly in the 30s Sunday through Tuesday. Slightly
warmer on Wednesday. Lows in the 20s to around 30.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Clouds continue to stream north across the area in the higher
levels and the entire area is now overcast. Some residual low
level moisture is streaming south off lake erie between 2500 and
3500 feet. Expecting drier air to push in from the west toward
the local area later this afternoon in the lower levels and this
should help to dissipate some of the lower clouds over the area.

Then, as storm system approaches from the south, clouds will
gradually lower and spread precipitation into the region from
south to north. The main issue is the threat for freezing rain
tomorrow morning that will change over to rain snow from west to
east. The exception is extreme eastern portions of the area
where it may remain freezing rain all day. Winds will become
light and variable through the afternoon and early evening today
and then shift to easterly tonight ahead of the low pressure
system.

Outlook... Non-vfr likely Thursday night and in the northeast
Friday. Non-vfr again Saturday through Sunday.

Marine
High pressure over the region this afternoon will shift eastward
quickly as the storm system takes shape along the east coast. A
stronger upper level trough will cross the central great lakes on
Friday with increasing southwest to west winds. A small craft
advisory will be needed. High pressure will ridge northward toward
the lake from the ohio river valley Friday night into early
Saturday. The next cold front will be near lake erie Saturday night
into Sunday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Winter weather advisory from 5 am to 7 pm est Thursday for
ohz003-006>013-017>023-027>033-036>038-047.

Winter weather advisory from 10 am Thursday to 3 am est Friday
for ohz014-089.

Pa... Winter weather advisory from 10 am Thursday to 3 am est Friday
for paz001>003.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for lez148-
149.

Synopsis... Lombardy
near term... Lombardy
short term... Mullen
long term... Mullen
aviation... Lombardy
marine... Mullen


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45132 - Port Stanley 38 mi92 min NNW 5.8 G 9.7 32°F 48°F1 ft1034.4 hPa (-0.3)
AGCM4 40 mi32 min 29°F 47°F1033.7 hPa (+0.4)
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 49 mi32 min SSE 5.1 G 6 30°F 39°F1033.8 hPa (-0.0)19°F
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 53 mi32 min S 2.9 G 6 29°F 1034.9 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH54 mi39 minE 510.00 miA Few Clouds31°F19°F61%1034.3 hPa

Wind History from BKL (wind in knots)
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W7NW10NW8NW12NW10N6N6CalmCalmNW3NW3CalmE5
1 day agoCalmCalmSE4S4S6S3CalmN11N7NW9NW7NW14NW11NW13NW15NW18W17
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2 days agoS7S5S5S5SE5S5S6S5SE7SE6S6S6SE8S7S6SE8S10S6CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.