Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Woodstock, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:19PM Wednesday May 24, 2017 11:59 PM CDT (04:59 UTC) Moonrise 4:53AMMoonset 6:57PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 926 Pm Cdt Wed May 24 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Thursday morning...
Rest of tonight..North winds to 30 kt. Slight chance of showers. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft.
Thursday..North winds 15 to 25 kt easing to 10 to 20 kt. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft occasionally to 7 ft in the afternoon.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northwest 5 to 10 kt late. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming northeast 10 to 15 kt early in the afternoon. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:201705251045;;161489 FZUS53 KLOT 250226 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 926 PM CDT WED MAY 24 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN WAVES ARE PROVIDED AS A RANGE OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES, ALONG WITH THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 10 PERCENT OF THE WAVES WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENCOUNTERED. LMZ740>742-251045-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Woodstock, IL
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location: 42.32, -88.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 250136 aaa
afdlot
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
836 pm cdt Wed may 24 2017

Update
836 pm cdt
rain showers are still retrograding westward across the eastern
and central forecast area early this evening, but are beginning
to show a coverage fade. These showers are associated with the
mid-level circulation across eastern indiana western ohio. This
wave will move slowly north-northeast overnight with wraparound
700-925mb moisture over the area gradually easing. Showers should
have an associated slow dissipation through tonight.

With the surface reflection deepening to around 992 mb by daybreak
near cincinnati, the pressure gradient will actually tighten
overnight over the area. The northerly wind component should
preclude much for fog across most of the area, with rap
hydrolapses also favoring stratus more than fog. Confidence in
clearing during the day Thursday remains low, though building
heights across north central illinois should at least allow for
some holes to develop there, similar to seen in eastern iowa this
afternoon.

Mtf

Short term
215 pm cdt
through Thursday...

sharp upper level trough with pinwheeling lows will continue to
impact the region in the near term bringing overcast skies
areawide and scattered showers. Water vapor imagery this
afternoon reveals two upper lows embedded within a broader
longwave trough centered over the mississippi valley. A western
low is digging south across missouri into arkansas while another
low is lifting north across the ohio valley. The western low
resulted in some scattered showers over the western CWA earlier
today but is otherwise exiting the area with mid level height
rises building across the mid and upper mississippi valley. More
widespread precipitation is in place with the eastern low and some
of the showery activity with this low will impact areas mainly
east of the i-55 corridor through the remainder of the afternoon
and evening. There is some very modest instability over
northwestern indiana, 100-200 j kg MLCAPE which may result in an
isolated embedded thunderstorm or two, but overall lightning
potential is low for the cwa.

The western upper low is progged to dig into the deep south late
this evening and overnight which will help kick the eastern low
farther east out of the cwa. This will result in diminishing
precip chances through the late evening and overnight hours.

Lingering low level cyclonic flow through mid afternoon Thursday
will likely keep much of the CWA locked under cloud cover, but
ridging building into our west mid to late in the afternoon should
result in some clearing west and perhaps a few peeks of sunshine
east. Temperatures are expected to be several degrees warmer
tomorrow, with highs in the upper 60s to around 70 inland, but
only in the 50s and low 60s along the lake front.

Deubelbeiss

Long term
318 pm cdt
Thursday night through Wednesday...

there are not many periods without a mention of rain from late in
the week through next Wednesday, but the window from late Thursday
into early Friday appears to be one exception. Other breaks appear
likely early Saturday and again Sunday night. This is not to say
the other periods are likely to see widespread rainfall, but chances
increase for most afternoons in response to diurnal heating, the
ongoing presence of longwave cyclonic energy aloft, and the timing
of shortwaves moving across the area.

The axis of a surface and upper level ridge positioned over the
plains this afternoon will push into the western lakes by early
Friday but by midday Friday already appears to be east of the area.

Deterministic guidance from the ECMWF gem GFS solutions all show an
embedded shortwave over the area by this time in the more zonal flow
upstream from the departing ridge. The surface reflection of this
upper shortwave is handled quite differently by the different
models, but all suggest a wave will develop along a baroclinic zone
running south of the area. Given model differences it is difficult
to pin down specifics, but generally the better chances of showers
and thunderstorms would be focused across the southern half of the
forecast area Friday afternoon and evening.

This baroclinic zone drops south and allows a weak ridge to move
into the area early Saturday, but then the next surface wave
develops upstream and lifts toward the area late Saturday along with
the next upper shortwave. Models again show poor agreement with the
handling of these features, so we have not included more than chance
pops for Saturday afternoon and evening.

By late in the weekend the next upper low drops from central canada
into the great lakes and remains overhead through late Tuesday.

Chance pops persist each day in this period, especially in the
afternoons and evenings, and then drop to slight chances by
Wednesday as the upper low begins to lift off to the east.

Lenning

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

641 pm... Main forecast concern is CIGS through Thursday morning
as well as the chance of fog overnight and showers this evening.

Ifr lifr CIGS across the far southwest part of lake michigan into
gyy have not moved west toward ord mdw thus far... But confidence
on what these low CIGS will do after sunset is low. Maintained sct
mention at ord mdw but trends will need to be monitored this
evening. Guidance varies on CIGS overnight... Between ifr and MVFR.

Previous forecast of low MVFR CIGS seems most likely and will
again need to monitor trends. CIGS will gradually lift Thursday
morning becomingVFR Thursday afternoon and likely scattering out.

Fog is possible overnight into Thursday morning... And will likely
be dependent on how much... If any... Lower CIGS scatter out. This
seems possible across northwest il and at rfd but further east...

confidence too low to include any mention of fog.

Scattered showers have spread west into eastern il late this
afternoon and appears the western edge will likely remain along a
pnt c09 mdw line. Close enough to continue vicinity mention at ord
but areas west of this line likely to remain dry. These showers
will slowly end mid late this evening as they pull back to the
east.

North northeast winds will turn more to the north northwest later
this evening and are expected to remain north northwest or
northerly through Thursday afternoon with speeds 10-15kts. A lake
breeze is possible Thursday afternoon... Shifting winds back to the
north northeast but only medium confidence. Cms

Marine
318 pm cdt
low pressure over kentucky today will move into ohio by Thursday
and then quickly off the new england coast by Friday. This low
will support northerly flow across the lake through late
Thursday. Winds will be lighter and more variable Friday and
Saturday as a weak ridge builds over the lake. Winds eventually
increase from the southwest later in the weekend as the next low
pressure system moves slowly across ontario Saturday and toward
james bay by Monday afternoon.

Lenning

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Beach hazards statement... Ilz006-ilz014 until 7 pm Thursday.

In... Beach hazards statement... Inz001-inz002 until 7 pm Thursday.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Il nearshore waters until 10 am Thursday.

Small craft advisory... In nearshore waters until 4 pm Thursday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 34 mi79 min N 16 G 23 52°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi59 min N 19 G 21 51°F 1002 hPa (+0.3)
45174 44 mi19 min 18 G 23 48°F 53°F6 ft47°F
FSTI2 49 mi119 min N 15 49°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 54 mi39 min N 25 G 27 50°F 49°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI27 mi64 minN 610.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F60°F97%1002.4 hPa

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5NE4NE3N4N6N4N4N5NE7NE7CalmNE8NE9NE10
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1 day agoS8S6S4SW10S5S7S5S7SW9SW4W8SW4S7W6CalmNW6CalmW7CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE3
2 days agoSW10SW10
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W6SW8CalmS3S5SW12
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S6SW12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.