Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Woodstock, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:36PM Saturday June 23, 2018 4:15 PM CDT (21:15 UTC) Moonrise 4:19PMMoonset 2:39AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 306 Pm Cdt Sat Jun 23 2018
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast early in the evening, and then west after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 ft.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 ft or less building to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..East winds 10 to 20 kt. Mostly Sunny in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:201806240330;;000204 FZUS53 KLOT 232006 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 306 PM CDT Sat Jun 23 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-240330-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Woodstock, IL
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location: 42.32, -88.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 232020
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
320 pm cdt Sat jun 23 2018

Short term
229 pm cdt
through Sunday...

a much quieter tail end to this week than what it was with respect
to weather. A few deeper cumulus and light showers have tried to
develop along the surface trough, near a little south of i-80.

Lack of Sun along this boundary has limited much for instability,
and should see only a few showers in that broad zone and south of
there through early this evening. A mid-level disturbance over
iowa this afternoon will move over the entire CWA this evening,
increasing mid clouds and possibly resulting in sprinkles. While
cannot rule out a stray light shower, the saturated depth and
degree of forcing is quite marginal.

Clouds over the southern CWA have been holding tight and should
continue to into the evening. Confidence is low on how these will
trend after, as well as some uncertainty to the north due to mid
cloud from the aforementioned short wave. Clouds and if when they
depart will have some impacts on temperatures. If clearing were
to occur in the south, fog would certainly be a possibility given
the lack of heating there today with residual high dew points.

Mtf

Long term
320 pm cdt
Sunday night through Saturday...

active weather returns Monday night into Tuesday night with strong
to potentially severe storms and another threat of flooding across
northern il and northwest in. Then, a hot and humid air mass will
build into the area by the end of the week and through next weekend.

Sunday night and Monday: a pronounced trough over montana this
afternoon will enter the central and northern high plains Sunday
evening. Several bouts of convection Sunday night into Monday across
the great plains will attempt to edge into western portions of the
cwa by Monday afternoon. However, the lack of any large scale
forcing and pronounced ridging over the central great lakes should
prevent this activity from reaching the western CWA through at least
mid afternoon Monday.

Monday night: decent moisture transport and isentropic ascent ahead
of the approaching trough and associated surface low will support a
swath of convection spreading NE across the CWA late Monday evening
into Tuesday morning. With a feed of pwat values nearing 2" into
northern il, another round of heavy rain will be possible across the
area. With heavily saturated soils across the area, even rainfall
amounts over 1" could begin to cause some flooding issues.

Tuesday into Wednesday: after morning convection shifts north of the
area, model guidance is beginning to come into better agreement that
much of the afternoon will be dry. A notable EML will advect over
the CWA during this time and result in a fairly substantial cap, so
partly cloudy skies would likely prevail. The pattern evolution late
Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning becomes a bit muddled as
the original cold front occlusion from the previously mentioned
begins to stretch out just NW of the cwa. When convection initiates
along this boundary remains unclear given the capping in place, but
indications are that convection will develop NW of the CWA by late
afternoon then sag SE through the evening hours. Decent deep layer
shear resulting from a 40-50kt wsw mid-level jet combined with
mlcape values >2500j kg will support a conditional severe
thunderstorm risk. With that said, the bigger concern may be the
potential for another round of heavy rain. Pwat values remaining
>1.75" combined with wsw flow aloft somewhat parallel to the low-
level boundary supports the potential for training thunderstorms.

Again, any convection as a whole should shift SE with time, but
antecedent saturated ground conditions should yield at least some
flash flood risk. Precip should quickly exit to the east Wednesday
morning, with about the NW 2 3 of the CWA dry through the day.

Thursday through Saturday: the main story becomes the potential for
another hot and humid period across the region to close out june and
start july. The area will reside on the northern extent of a
building upper ridge across the central CONUS on Thursday before the
ridge pushes well into the great lakes region Friday through the
weekend. At this time, several days with MAX heat index values above
100f for a decent portion of the CWA appear possible Friday through
the weekend with the combination of MAX temps in the low to mid 90s
and dew points in the low to potentially mid 70s at times.

Kluber

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

only item of note for the chicago area airports are northeast wind
speeds that look to inch up this afternoon, and then be stronger
on Sunday.

Light variable or northerly flow is seen across much of northern
illinois early this afternoon. Enough of a temperature difference
is building that a marine layer influence shift to the northeast
is expected in winds at ord and mdw, but the speeds may remain
quite light, especially at first. Confidence on speeds of 8 kt is
low-medium. Winds should become variable tonight before light
northwesterly again to start the day on Sunday. As brief surface
ridging moves over, winds should turn northeast and pick up in
speed, likely already by noon. Confidence on this is medium.

An upper level disturbance will move over the area this evening
into early overnight. Cannot completely rule out a stray shower
with this but coverage and impacts with any will be low.

Mtf

Marine
320 pm cdt
a cold front will move south across the lake tonight and Sunday,
resulting in north winds to 20 knots. A low pressure organizing over
the central great plains will track to southern minnesota by
Tuesday. This will bring increasing E to SE winds to 25 knots Monday
night into Tuesday morning. The low will cross northern lake
michigan Wednesday morning, pushing an associated trough across the
remainder of the lake through the day Wednesday. Multiple periods of
thunderstorms are expected Monday night through Tuesday, especially
across the south half of the lake. A ridge will then build across
the southern great lakes on Thursday.

Kluber

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 34 mi35 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 68°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi75 min ESE 2.9 G 2.9 67°F 1007.8 hPa (+0.3)
45174 44 mi25 min E 3.9 G 3.9 62°F 62°F1 ft60°F
FSTI2 49 mi135 min ENE 6 65°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 54 mi25 min ENE 9.9 G 9.9 66°F 54°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI27 mi20 minW 710.00 miFair79°F57°F49%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7NE10
G16
NE6NE5NE4E3CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmW4CalmCalmNW3N3N5N6E3CalmCalmW5CalmW4
1 day agoNE8NE7NE6NE6NE6NE9CalmN4NE6NE8NE8NE7NE3E3NE4NE4NE3NE7NE6NE6NE8NE6E5NE9
2 days agoE7E7E8E5E4NE5E6E5E5CalmNE3E5E4CalmCalmE5E8E7E8
G14
E10
G15
E11
G14
E11
G15
E7E4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.