Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Woodstock, IL

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:35PM Thursday June 20, 2019 9:01 AM CDT (14:01 UTC) Moonrise 11:17PMMoonset 8:13AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- 402 Am Cdt Thu Jun 20 2019
Today..North winds 15 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Patchy fog through early afternoon. Periods of showers in the morning, then a slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft in the early afternoon.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft late in the evening.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming east after midnight. Rain showers likely, especially overnight. Slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:201906201530;;776700 FZUS53 KLOT 200902 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 402 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740-201530-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Woodstock, IL
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location: 42.32, -88.45     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 201153
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
653 am cdt Thu jun 20 2019

Short term
305 am cdt
through tonight...

last night's sogginess will finally come to an end from west to
east through the morning. Some localized flooding, mainly in
typical lower and or poorer drainage locations may be seen through
the morning rush hour. Fog over near the lake may also ooze
inland in the hours after sunrise, which has been a common theme
so far this meteorological "summer". Waves of 4-5 ft within the
persistent onshore flow pattern will make for a heightened rip
current risk as well, especially in northwest indiana. Otherwise,
apart from a chance of isolated afternoon showers, clouds should
be very slow to clear and temperatures will find themselves again
well below normal today.

The final and primary upper wave in this successive series the
past 24 hours is gradually moving eastward from over northeast
illinois early this morning. The heavier rates in the deeper
moist advection regime immediately ahead of this should end by
daybreak. Some of these embedded pockets of heavier rain, at times
associated with mini-circulations (almost convective-like
vortices on a mesoscale-gamma level) produced 1.5 to just over 2
inches in parts of the kankakee river valley. Calls have indicated
minor issues in parts of kankakee county thus far but would think
there is probably spotty minor flooding occurring on a broader
scale - including in lake county, in where there is a localized
bullseye on radar of over two inches near crown point and i-65.

Some rain associated with the wrap-around moist conveyor belt
will persist into mid-morning, though rates will likely be much
more marginal for any issues. Will carry an areal flood advisory
into the morning commute period for these areas that saw the
heavier rain.

The 1000 mb surface low reflection across the central il in
border will support a tightened pressure gradient across the cwa
through the morning and north-northeast winds at times gusting to
20 mph. With temperatures in the 50s under a thick canopy of
clouds, it will not feel or look like the start to one of the
longest days of the year. Stratus has been prevailing more so
than fog, but as rain eases there may be an expansion inland of
marine fog. Confidence on this is low but any dense should really
hug the shore, or be seen in northwest indiana where the wind
fields is lighter (closest to the surface low). Have also issued a
beach hazards statement for the rip current risk in the long
duration onshore flow pattern.

Clouds should show some erosion from the north and west thanks to
thinner depths and closer to the cloud shield periphery. With
residual high values of boundary layer moisture, characterized by
0-1 km mixing ratios of around 11 g kg this afternoon, it will not
take much warming or forcing per forecast soundings to have some
shallow moist updrafts. There is a short wave on water vapor
imagery that will also be moving into northwest illinois by mid to
late afternoon. Together this could result in isolated afternoon
to early evening showers over northern illinois and most
convective allowing models either show or hint at this solution.

Tonight should see some high clouds associated with the
aforementioned wave as well as any cirrus cresting the upper
ridge to the west, though how thick of clouds is uncertain.

Depending on that, south of i-80 may see some fog as winds
diminish and higher dew points linger.

Mtf

Long term
356 am cdt
Friday through Wednesday...

for Friday through the early next week, the longer range guidance
continues to indicate an active period across the region. An
amplifying upper ridge will set up along the mississippi river
valley, with the ridge axis crossing the CWA on Saturday and
Saturday night. The longer range guidance has been advertising this
scenario for a few days and confidence is relatively high in the
general synoptic pattern, both with the upper level long wave
pattern and the surface pattern. A return flow of warm moist
unstable air from an increasingly open gulf of mexico will spread
across the area, under this upper ridge. However, exact timing of
convection across the CWA remains low, since the main forcing will
come from ridge-riding shortwaves, most of which will be
convectively induced upstream of the local area, each of which
present their own timing uncertainty. So, the main idea for Friday
through Saturday, increasing heat and humidity is expected, with
temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s and dewpoints in the
upper 60s to lower 70s. Conditions will be cooler near lake
michigan due to nely flow on Friday and then sely flow on Saturday,
though the warmer, more humid air will likely reach the northern
indiana shore of lake michigan. The illinois shore, including
downtown chicago, will likely be cooler both Friday and Saturday due
to the onshore flow. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are
likely, but confidence in timing is low due to the convective origin
nature of the ridge-riding shortwaves. A strong low-level jet and
broad isentropic lift along and north of a warm front setting up
from the middle mississippi valley to the lower ohio valley could
focus some elevated strong to severe thunderstorms and the the
latest SPC day 2 convective outlook covers the CWA in a marginal
risk for severe thunderstorms. Also, with pwats approaching 2
inches pooling along the warm front, locally heavy rainfall and an
associated flooding risk will be possible.

For Sunday into Monday evening, additional rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected. However, as the upper ridge shifts
east, a deepening long-wave upper trough will cross the central
plains, setting up strong swly flow aloft. A series of southern
stream shortwaves will tap an already primed low-level environment
continuing the chances for periods of showers and thunderstorms.

Again, timing of the periods of thunderstorms will be tied to the
timing of the individual shortwaves, so there is still some
uncertainty to the exact timing. The major difference between the
Friday into Saturday pattern and the Sunday into Monday pattern is
that sfc low level flow will shift to swly, shutting off any lake
breeze potential and allowing the warm, humid air to reach all the
way to the lakefront. Once again, with modest severe weather
parameters, the SPC day 3 convective outlook highlights much of the
cwa in a marginal risk for severe weather.

Periods of unsettle weather will continue through the middle of next
week. Following the passage of the long-wave trough, a more zonal
pattern will set up aloft, while a swly flow at the lower levels
continues to tap gulf moisture. Expect a period of more seasonable
temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 80s and continued
periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

today's concerns for the chicago area airports are:
- winds 340-020 degrees with occasional gusts in the upper teens
this morning
- light to moderate rain ending by 16z, with a small chance for a
stray shower mid-afternoon through early evening
- ifr lifr ceilings this morning rising in the afternoon
- MVFR to ifr visibility this morning in mist fog and rain
low pressure is exiting the region but wrap-around showers will
continue into mid morning for the chicago area. Some of these
showers are moderate in intensity. These showers, along with
fog mist, will lead to ifr visibility at times through mid-
morning. There is lower visibility on the chicago lakefront, but
that presently is expected to remain east of ord and mdw with
medium-high confidence. There is also 200 ft ceilings. Confidence
has increased on this staying east of mdw, but still it is
precariously close.

As the system continues to pull away, dry advection will be
limited, and as such clouds will be very slow to depart. Ifr
should lift to MVFR over chicago this afternoon and eventual
scattering of the low clouds at some point this afternoon.

As for winds at chicago area airports, there is high confidence
that there will be some variability this morning between 340 and
020 degrees, with the time before 15z most favored for the nnw
direction. Confidence is also high in speeds being around 12 kt.

The direction is expected to favor more nne this afternoon, with
medium confidence in this.

Isolated showers are possible this afternoon, especially near rfd,
but could come close to the chicago area airports if they develop.

These should have minimal impacts.

Mtf

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Beach hazards statement... Ilz014 until 6 pm Thursday.

In... Beach hazards statement... Inz001-inz002 until 6 pm Thursday.

Flash flood watch... Inz001-inz002-inz011 until 10 am Thursday.

Flash flood watch... Inz010-inz019 until 7 am Thursday.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Lmz741-lmz742 until 3 pm Thursday.

Small craft advisory... In nearshore waters until 6 pm Thursday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45186 35 mi42 min NNW 9.7 G 14 56°F 56°F2 ft
45187 37 mi42 min N 9.7 G 16 55°F 55°F2 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 39 mi62 min N 13 G 15 56°F 1005.4 hPa (+2.4)
45174 44 mi32 min NNW 16 G 19 4 ft1001.8 hPa
FSTI2 49 mi122 min N 15 57°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 54 mi32 min NNW 25 G 28 56°F 56°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI27 mi67 minN 83.00 miHeavy Drizzle55°F54°F100%1006.1 hPa

Wind History from BUU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8NE5E4NE6E5NE7NE7NE6NE7NE6NE7N5N6N4N6N3N7N5N7N9N6N7N7N5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmE5CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmNE3E3CalmE3CalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE4
2 days agoNE5NE4NE4CalmNE6E3E4E5E4E5E4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.