Tuesday, March19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Scituate, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 6:55PM Tuesday March 19, 2019 3:36 AM EDT (07:36 UTC) Moonrise 5:17PMMoonset 6:16AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 116 Am Edt Tue Mar 19 2019
Rest of tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..S winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Tue Mar 19 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds over the waters through Tue, moving further offshore Wed. A cold front and possible low pres will move across the waters late Thu or Thu night, followed by gusty nw winds Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Scituate, MA
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location: 42.33, -70.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 190732
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
332 am edt Tue mar 19 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will bring dry and cool weather with moderating
temperatures by Wednesday afternoon. A coastal storm impacts the
region Thursday into Friday morning with a period of heavy rain and
strong winds possible. Becoming very windy behind the departing
storm Friday along with a shot of cold air into Saturday, then more
seasonable conditions return Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
2 am update ...

today ...

cyclonic flow aloft continues with long wave trough remaining over
new england. One short wave moves across the region in the morning
and another late in the day. Some patchy morning clouds associated
with lead short wave should give way to mostly sunny conditions by
midday in response to subsidence behind departing short wave.

However trailing short wave arrives in western ma ct late in the day
and will result in an increase in diurnal clouds and slight chance
of an isolated snow shower or flurries.

Cold temps aloft with 850 mb temps around -10c at 18z 2 pm today.

This will promote deep boundary mixing and model soundings confirm
boundary layer mixing up to about 800 mb, so expecting another day
with highs ranging from the low to mid 40s. Winds are light aloft
with with 850 mb winds only wnw 10-15 kts. Thus mostly sunny
conditions with strong march Sun combined with light winds should
offset the cool temperatures.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
2 am update...

tonight ...

dry weather continues with short wave ridging and associated 1030 mb
surface high advecting into the region overnight. This combined with
a dry airmass (surface dew pts in the teens and 20s) and light winds
will yield a chilly night with lows in the 20s to near 30 in the
urban areas including boston.

Wednesday ...

a chilly start to the day but strong march Sun combined with
developing ssw winds will help erode modify cold airmass over the
region and make it feel like spring in the afternoon with highs 50-
55! The timing is good with spring (vernal equinox) arriving 5:58
pm. Short wave ridging and associated anticyclonic flow should
provide mostly sunny conditions. Probably the pick of the week
except along and near the south coast with winds off the ocean
keeping highs in the 40s.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
* highlights ...

- mild Wednesday
- potential coastal storm Thursday, watching tides
- breezy Friday and Saturday, turning colder into Saturday
overview and model preferences...

although modest cyclonic curvature remains a staple of the
mid upper lvls through mid week, noting continued height rises
through at least thu, suggesting modest subsidence and high pres
in control through this period. The feature to watch, is the
gradual phasing of a wave currently just downstream of strong h5
height anomaly across the pacnw, combining with a yet well
sampled arctic wave rotating out of N manitoba. The net result,
something that both operational and ensemble guidance show some
agreement on, is a deepening shortwave taking on a near neutral-
positive tilt late week. Models also agree, in some form or
another that the resulting sfc baroclinic leaf will lead to
coastal low pres development. As one would expect, given the
time-frame and that the arctic wave is likely not well sampled,
how deep the low pres ultimately gets is somewhat in question.

Ecmwf and its ensembles lead the way here, deepening below
980mb. Meanwhile the GFS is weakest, barely dropping below
995mb. Given the typical biases of these models beyond day 3,
this is not entirely surprising, suggesting a result somewhere
in between, like near the cmc or ukmet. Given this, will
continue to blend guidance to account for these biases and the
unresolved mesoscale features. Beyond this feature for fri
expect a trend toward colder than normal conditions as the
arctic influenced wave slowly shifts toward the maritimes.

Details...

wed night into early thu...

mainly dry conditions with high pres gradually shifting e. The
rising heights and return flow developing suggest temps
generally above seasonable normals. Expecting overnight mins mid
to upper 20s and highs on Thu generally upper 40s to low 50s,
potentially limited by increasing afternoon clouds.

Late Thu into fri...

as mentioned above, will be watching the gradual tilt of
mid upper lvl trof which has enough baroclinicity (given arctic
origins) to initiate offshore cyclogenesis. How rapidly this
resulting low deepens, and its ultimate track will determine
impacts on S new england. If the track favors GFS nam and some
ensembles, it suggests more widespread precipitation, but milder
conditions favoring nearly all ra. The 18.12zecmwf cmc and
other ensembles deepen more rapidly, and pass close enough for
impact especially across the E half of the region. However these
solutions also have higher pwats (nearly +2 std deviations) and
very robust trowal comma head lift, which if strong enough
could support a change to wet sn. Again, this is highly
dependent on track and depth, but this is something worth
watching if the dynamics can overcome the mediocre low-mid lvl
temps. The overnight updates to these solutions are less robust,
but ensembles remain deeper in many cases. The deeper solution
would also be slower, leading to more impact into fri. Will
continue to monitor, but in either case, do anticipate some
precipitation.

One other thing to note, is the astronomical high tides late
thu-fri. Which combined with surge from deepening low pres could
yield some low end coastal flooding. Boston tides mid day fri
are within a foot of minor flood as noted by the previous
forecaster. In fact, steven’s institute ensembles already
suggest minor flooding possible with the Thu night and Fri high
tides.

Fri into sat...

in spite of the uncertainty regarding coastal storm
depth track, upper lvl wave continues to deepen and dig as it
shifts toward the maritimes. This will allow modified arctic air
to impact the region. Late Fri into sat, strong pres gradient
between the deepening low offshore and high pres building in
will lead to gusty winds, yielding very cold wind chills,
potentially as low as the single digits overnight Fri night into
early sat. H85 temps drop below -10c, which is nearly 2 std
deviations below normal. So expecting ambient temps to remain
below normal as well.

Sun into tue...

pres gradient weakens as high pres begins to settle across the
region. Blustery to start but anticipate weaker flow throughout
the late day sun. Overall, temp anomalies remain negative, which
could be reinforced by a secondary arctic cold front mon.

Overall, anticipating milder conditions than late fri-sat, but
ambient temps below normal where higher march Sun angle is
unable to make up the difference.

Aviation 08z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... High confidence.

2 am update ...

today and tonight ... VFR, light winds and dry weather.

Wednesday ... VFR, dry weather with light winds becoming ssw by late
morning.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR.

Thursday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Ra
likely.

Thursday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Ra
likely, chance sn.

Friday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
ra, chance shra.

Friday night: mainlyVFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Slight
chance shra, slight chance shsn.

Saturday:VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... High confidence.

2 am update...

today and tonight ... Dry weather, good vsby and light wnw
winds.

Wednesday ... Dry weather, good vsby and ssw winds developing.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft.

Thursday and Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to
5 ft. Rain likely.

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain, chance of rain
showers.

Friday night and Saturday: moderate risk for gale force winds
with gusts up to 35 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Climate
In just three weeks, 70 degrees will change from near record to
no surprise, and in another 1 1 2 months just a part of the
landscape.

Average first ocarinas of 70 degree high temperatures (since
records began as early as 1872)
boston... ... .April 8th
hartford... ..April 1
providence... April 8th
worcester... .April 11th
average first ocarinas of 70 degree daily average temperatures
daily average temperatures = (high + low) 2 (since records
began as early as 1872)
boston... ... .May 27th
hartford... ..May 10th
providence... May 20th
worcester... .May 29th

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Nocera doody
near term... Nocera
short term... Nocera
long term... Doody
aviation... Nocera doody
marine... Nocera doody
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 4 mi47 min WSW 9.7 G 12 36°F 38°F1 ft1026.1 hPa (+0.4)22°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 13 mi93 min WNW 12 G 14 36°F 38°F1 ft1025.1 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 24 mi47 min W 7.8 G 9.7 36°F 1 ft1026.3 hPa (-0.0)20°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 25 mi43 min 35°F 1026.6 hPa
44090 36 mi37 min 37°F1 ft
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 39 mi179 min 39°F2 ft
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 44 mi37 min WNW 6 G 7 33°F 1025.5 hPa (+0.0)17°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Marshfield Airport, MA17 mi42 minW 410.00 miFair25°F15°F69%1026.4 hPa

Wind History from GHG (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Scituate, Massachusetts
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Scituate
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Tue -- 04:12 AM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:22 AM EDT     10.44 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:48 PM EDT     -1.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:57 PM EDT     9.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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7.35.22.90.8-0.30.21.94.26.89.110.310.28.86.74.11.4-0.6-1.2-0.124.57.29.29.8

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:02 AM EDT     -0.43 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:19 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:16 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:31 AM EDT     0.48 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:16 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 03:22 PM EDT     -0.48 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 05:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:48 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:04 PM EDT     0.52 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 11:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.