Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Stottville, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 5:34PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 2:48 AM EST (07:48 UTC) Moonrise 8:00PMMoonset 8:37AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 923 Pm Est Tue Feb 19 2019
Overnight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain, sleet with snow and freezing rain likely in the evening, then rain after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain after midnight.
Sun..SE winds around 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain in the evening.
ANZ300 923 Pm Est Tue Feb 19 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure moves offshore tonight, followed by a low pressure system that will impact the waters Wednesday into Wednesday night. A cold front follows on Thursday with high pressure returning Thursday night through Saturday. Another low pressure system then impacts the waters Saturday night into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Stottville, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.33, -73.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kaly 200528
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1228 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
It will remain seasonably cold tonight into Wednesday. An
approaching low pressure system will bring light snow late
Wednesday, changing to a wintry mix Wednesday night. It will
become milder and mainly dry for the end of the week.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1230 am est, lake effect clouds and light snow
showers flurries extend into northern herkimer and hamilton
counties, as depicted by IR satellite and ktyx radar, with
ground truth from ny mesonet webcam at old forge confirming
this. Have added mention of snow showers through daybreak, with
the trend for the clouds and snow showers flurries to slowly
shift northward overnight as the low level winds back more into
the southwest to south. The band should also begin to break up
and or contract westward with time as well, as inversion heights
continue to fall and low level winds become more SW to s.

Scattered dustings to a couple of tenths of an inch of
accumulation could occur where any snow showers persist.

Elsewhere, clear to partly cloudy skies remain as high clouds
occasionally stream east into the region. These high clouds
should tend to increase further closer to daybreak from S to n.

However, until then, enough thin spots, combined with nearly
calm wind and the remaining fresh snowpack will continue to
allow temps to plummet in some areas, particularly across the se
adirondacks and southern vt, where some temps are already around
or just under zero. Some of these areas may fall to between zero
and 10 below, with some slight recovery possible toward daybreak
as clouds increase. Elsewhere, lows mainly in the single digits
and teens.

Short term 6 am this morning through Friday
Winter weather advisory in effect for eastern new york and
western new england late Wednesday into Wednesday night...

Wednesday into Wednesday night, midlevel shortwave trough will
deamplify as it tracks from the upper midwest into southeastern
canada. Associated weak surface low will track well to our
northwest, while secondary low strengthens off the southern new
england coast late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The
secondary low appears to strengthen too late for many direct
impacts on our local area. Isentropic lift ramps up as
strengthening low-level jet impinges upon the cold and dry
antecedent airmass. This will allow snow to spread into the area
from southwest to northeast once the dry airmass is overcome. It
is likely we will lose some lift to saturating the column, and
above-freezing air aloft quickly arrives, so we are expecting
snowfall totals to remain light. However, the timing is such
that it may impact the evening commute in portions of the
eastern catskills, mid-hudson valley, and litchfield hills. The
remainder of the area will see snowfall commencing after the
evening rush hour as it spreads in through around 02z. H850
winds increase to 50-60 kt after 00z with temps rising above
freezing, so p-type will transition to sleet and freezing rain
overnight. Forecast soundings suggest we lose ice in the clouds
at times, so precip may become more drizzly showery at times.

Temps aloft rise faster than those at the surface, so it is
likely we will see some freezing rain overnight, with ice
accretions generally around a tenth of an inch or less. This has
prompted the issuance of a winter weather advisory for the
entire forecast area. Less confidence in freezing rain across
our northern zones in the southern adirondacks, but confidence
was just high enough to issue the advisory. QPF through
Wednesday night generally looks to be between a quarter and half
an inch, so we are not looking at a major event.

Midlevel dry slot punches in decidedly after 09z Thursday,
which should allow precip to end rather quickly Thursday
morning. It should be a rather mild day as the boundary layer
quickly deepens before cold advection takes hold. Temperatures
should rise quickly, but some spots could potentially see
lingering issues for the morning commute before temperatures
rise. It also looks rather breezy with h850 winds around 40-45
kt. There is some uncertainty with how deep we mix which is
contingent upon the amount of cloud cover that can stick around.

Gusts look to be sub-advisory at this point, but if mixing
depths become higher than currently forecast, an advisory would
not be out of the question. 30-35 kt gusts look like a
possibility. It should remain mainly dry on Thursday aside from
perhaps some lingering upslope lake enhanced showers over the
western adirondacks.

Tranquil weather Thursday night into Friday as another confluent
region of the strong upper jet becomes located over the region.

Temperatures will become a bit cooler than Thursday but still
milder than normal with less of a breeze as the pressure
gradient slackens. H850 temps only falling to around -10c will
prevent much lake effect activity, although there could be a few
light snow showers around in the western adirondacks.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
The main concerns for the upcoming long term period will be a wintry
mix event expected to arrive Saturday night into Sunday with
potentially another disturbance at the end of the forecast.

Temperatures look to average near to even slightly above normal
which will make the precipitation type forecast difficult for the
weekend storm.

We start the period off Friday night with a 1030-1035hpa high
pressure over the northeast and broad upper level ridging over the
eastern conus. This should lead to a good radiational cooling set-up
with clear skies and calm winds leading to low temperatures by
Saturday morning falling into the teens to low 20s. Sunny skies
start the day but as the ridge axis shifts east into new england, we
should see gradually increasing clouds.

We will be monitoring a frontal boundary stalled over the mid-
atlantic that looks to shift northward through the day Saturday.

Global guidance shows a general consensus with the best isentropic
lift and 850-700mb fgen arriving in eastern ny and western new
england Saturday night (especially after 06z Sunday) so we increased
pops from southwest to northeast after 00z Sunday. As the front
pushes northward, we will have to monitor where the aforementioned
high shifts as this will impact temperatures and thus precipitation
type. The cmc-nh suggests the high moves northeastward into the
canadian maritimes gulf of maine which would allow cold air
damming to keep a colder air mass in place ahead of the
isentropic lift. The GFS shows the high pushing off the coast of
new england which would support a milder air mass ahead of the
precipitation. The ECMWF is inbetween the two solutions. For
now, sided with the ECMWF thermal profiles with precipitation
initially arriving as rain snow before a 40-50kt mid-level jet
advancing into the northeast leads to enhanced isentropic lift
and increases precipitation intensity. Wet-bulb processes should
cool the bottom half of the boundary layer closer to freezing
allowing a changeover to snow and eventually wintry mix of sleet
and freezing rain as the mid-levels continue to warm overnight.

Enough warm air advection should continue into Sunday that
areas outside of the adirondacks and greens turn to plain rain
with these higher terrain areas turning to rain by Sunday
afternoon.

Besides temperature issues, another challenge to the forecast will
be precipitation amounts. The synoptic set-up shows the warm
front lifting northward with a weak 500mb shortwave
intensifying along it, allowing a secondary low to develop. The
12z 19 guidance continues to trend eastward with this low,
suggesting that it may develop off the coast of nj and then
track eastward into southern new england. This track would keep
any enhanced band of precipitation on its north west quadrant to
areas mainly in the capital district south and east into mid-
hudson valley and western new england. A more powerful parent
low during this period will be strengthening as it tracks into
the great lakes and southern canada which increases confidences
that the associated occluded front should cross through the
northeast, allowing warm air to track northward through our
entire area on Sunday.

Once the low along the warm front shifts out to sea on Sunday, we
could see precipitation decrease in coverage and intensity as the
dry conveyor belt inbetween the parent low to our west and exiting
coastal low wraps into eastern ny and western new england. As
precipitation intensity decreases, temperatures should warm into the
40s for most areas. As the parent low tracks across ontario and into
quebec Sunday night, enough 700mb moisture looks to move back into
the region that we could see a returning period of rain snow mix to
snow showers Sunday night. Questionable if enough moisture
reaches in the mid-hudson valley NW ct so only introduced low
end chance pops there.

The parent cold front should cross through our region on Monday with
potential for continued snow showers in areas north and west of the
capital district. The true arctic front may not move across our area
until Monday night so high temperatures on Monday should stay
seasonable in the mid 30s to near 40 with colder air arriving Monday
night. Lows should fall into the teens to near 20. High pressure
centered in ontario builds eastward on Tuesday leading to a dry day
with cooler high temperatures in the 20s to upper 30s.

Our next possible system to watch comes up mid-week. ECMWF shows a
miller-a type coastal storm but the cmc-nh keep high pressure in
control. GFS shows another inland tracking low. Still much
uncertainty on this forecast so stay tuned for details.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
Strong surface high builds east of our region today as a low
pressure system approaches later this afternoon and evening. High
clods will thicken and lower through the day and the leading edge of
snow will affect our region beginning between 21z-23z with steadier
snow beginning between 23z-01z. Ceilings and visibilities will
rapidly lower to borderline ifr MVFR during the snow. Snow will
begin to transition to sleet through this evening but ceilings and
visibilities will remain borderline ifr MVFR.

Winds will be near calm tonight then become south to southeast at
less than 10 kt through this morning and continue through this
evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: high operational impact. Definite shsn... Fzra... Sleet.

Thursday: moderate operational impact. Breezy chance of shra.

Thursday night: low operational impact. Breezy no sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday night: high operational impact. Likely ra... Sn... Sleet.

Sunday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Ra.

Hydrology
Hydrological impacts are not expected through at least this
week.

Seasonably cold weather is expected through Wednesday, promoting
ice expansion on area waterways.

The next system arrives late Wednesday into Thursday morning
with snow transitioning to a wintry mix. Precipitation amounts
of generally a quarter to a half an inch are expected.

Temperatures are expected to run a bit above normal Thursday
into the weekend.

Another period of rain or mixed precipitation is possible
Saturday night into Sunday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am est
Thursday for ctz001-013.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 7 am est
Thursday for nyz047-058>060-063>066.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
Thursday for nyz032-033-038>043-048>054-061-082>084.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
Thursday for maz001-025.

Vt... Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
Thursday for vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Thompson
near term... Iaa kl thompson
short term... Thompson
long term... Speciale
aviation... Iaa
hydrology... Thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 23 mi79 min Calm 16°F 1037 hPa9°F
TKPN6 24 mi49 min Calm G 1 17°F 1037.3 hPa (+0.0)8°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 85 mi49 min NE 7 G 8.9 24°F 38°F1036.6 hPa (+0.0)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 86 mi55 min N 5.1 G 7 24°F 36°F1035.9 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last
24hr
N12
NW5
G9
N9
G12
NW8
NW5
G8
NW7
N12
G16
N13
G17
N11
N15
G19
N16
NW11
NW13
G18
N13
G19
N10
G14
NW11
N9
N8
G12
N9
N12
G16
N9
G14
N7
NE8
N7
G10
1 day
ago
NE3
G6
E4
E3
E2
G5
NE5
E3
NE5
NE8
NE6
N5
N6
NW4
W4
NW10
N13
G19
NE17
G21
N14
G18
NW13
G24
NW11
G16
N14
G20
N13
G24
N18
G26
N18
G25
N13
G18
2 days
ago
N12
NE6
G10
NE7
G10
N9
G12
N10
G13
NE7
G10
E9
G12
NW1
SW12
G15
SW11
S7
SW6
SW9
SW6
S5
SW8
S5
S4
SE3
NE1
NE4

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA26 mi55 minVar 310.00 miFair15°F6°F67%1035 hPa

Wind History from PSF (wind in knots)
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last 24hrCalmCalmN4W4W9SW9W10NW8
G16
NW11W10W10
G19
NW6W14
G18
W11W933443SE5533
1 day agoCalmCalmNE4NE4NE4NE4NE5NE3CalmCalmCalmW10W8
G17
--NW6NW5N6NW4NW7
G14
NW12
G20
W7NW74SW4
2 days agoSW3CalmW5W3SW5W5CalmNW84W3W9W7CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Coxsackie, Hudson River, New York
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Coxsackie
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:20 AM EST     4.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:36 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:12 AM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:37 PM EST     5.38 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:48 PM EST     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
1.22.43.44.14.54.43.42.31.40.5-0.10.11.22.63.94.75.35.34.53.221-0-0.4

Tide / Current Tables for Hudson, Hudson River, New York
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Hudson
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:15 AM EST     4.60 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:36 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:45 AM EST     -1.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:31 PM EST     5.08 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:33 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:00 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:21 PM EST     -1.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
1.63.14.14.64.43.62.41.10-0.8-1-0.11.53.24.4554.43.31.90.6-0.4-1.1-0.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (2,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.