Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grosse Pointe Park, MI
May 6, 2024 10:45 PM EDT (02:45 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:18 AM Sunset 8:38 PM Moonrise 4:21 AM Moonset 6:12 PM |
LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 333 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024
Tonight - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening - .then partly cloudy after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning - .then becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the evening - .then mostly cloudy with light showers likely after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the evening. Mostly cloudy. Light showers likely in the morning - .then light showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday - North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ400
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 062303 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 703 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- There is a risk for isolated strong to severe storms Tuesday evening southwest of a Midland to Port Huron line between 6 PM and 11 PM.
- Some gusts to 60 mph are possible with potential for isolated large hail to 1 inch in diameter.
- Cannot rule out an isolated weak tornado or two Tuesday evening.
- Mainly dry, breezy, and warmer Wednesday, then cooler again Thursday with additional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.
AVIATION
Surface high pressure moves farther into Ontario and Quebec while maintaining control of conditions across SE Mi this evening. A gradual transition then begins late tonight and Tuesday morning.
Surface wind remains easterly while cloud layer wind veers SW as a warm front organizes in the Ohio valley. Clouds along and ahead of the front begin moving into Lower Mi with low end VFR ceiling as far north as FNT by sunrise. Low VFR holds into Tuesday afternoon with the first weakening wave of showers/storms, then ceiling trends down into MVFR as both showers and thunderstorms increase coverage and intensity late in the day into Tuesday evening. The best chance of thunderstorms is after 22Z Tuesday with very similar timing along the terminal corridor.
For DTW/D21 Convection... Thunderstorm potential increases across the region Tuesday afternoon. The first round of activity moves in on a weakening trend by mid afternoon followed by a round of stronger storms after 22Z Tuesday evening.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Medium for ceiling 5000 feet or less Tuesday morning, high Tuesday afternoon.
* Low for thunderstorms after 18Z Tuesday, moderate after 22Z Tuesday evening.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 356 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
DISCUSSION...
Ridging with central surface pressure of 1018 mb continues to anchor the Great Lakes by flanking the northward progression of scattered showers and storms attributed to troughing over the Ohio Valley.
Locally, expect near seasonable temperatures and dry conditions the rest of today and tonight with prevailing easterly flow and a persistent stream of high cirrus.
Expansive closed low occupying the western two-thirds of CONUS (producing widespread severe convection) retrogrades from the western Dakotas into eastern Montana Tuesday while the wave broadens meridionally. This pushes the system's elongated warm front northeastward into Lower Michigan with rapid moistening arriving after 15Z. Mean 850-700 mb layer dewpoints jump from around -30C early Tuesday morning to +5C after 18Z as the magnitude of water vapor transport increases sharply with the transition to cyclonic southwesterly flow. Current analysis depicts a line of convection extending from the Mid-Mississippi Valley up to the southern Canadian Prairies, closer to the actual surface low. CAMs highlight a tendency for decay as storms cross Lake Michigan and interface with a dry and stable ambient airmass. Most areas remain dry, at least through 18Z.
Height field adjustments along the eastern periphery of the system lend some uncertainty to the upstream evolution of convection as a secondary shortwave emerges and shears into southern Lower. The warm sector will fully encompass the region by 22Z, as a secondary (and more robust response) convection response arrives with additional storms track west to east. Given the slightly later arrival time and flatter diurnal curve, confidence in SBCAPE has trended lower as the main instability axis remains better centered over southwest Lower.
All hazards are in-play Tuesday evening for Southeast Michigan given the +60 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, southeasterly winds, and pockets of higher instability as mid-level lapse rates cool. A secondary surface low emerges as the triple point, and given the current curvature reflected in forecast hodographs, isolated rotating structures will be capable of generating some weak mesocyclones, augmented by the frontal intersections. Cannot rule out a few isolated weak tornados and some overachieving thunderstorm gusts.
SPC has upgraded the CWA to a Slight Risk near the MI/OH border with a Marginal risk elsewhere (excluding The Thumb). Storms largely depart/dissipate by 03Z with increasingly zonal flow aloft.
Warmer and more stable as dewpoints drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s Wednesday with decreasing sky opacity. Well-mixed boundary-layer supports some decent afternoon gusts in the 25-30 mph range. The next system crosses through Indiana and Ohio Wednesday with some additional shower/storms possible for southern Lower. The primary upper trough then splits again Thursday, taking aim at the Great Lakes Thursday while the broader longwave jet pattern remains quasi- stationary. Additional showers and storms are likely with much cooler temperatures Thursday, related to cold frontal forcing. The synoptic pattern unlocks Friday as an amplified ridge drops through the Upper Midwest. Drier weather will be short lived as a trailing PV anomaly drops into the region Saturday.
MARINE...
High pressure currently centered over Lake Huron gradually drifts east into Ontario tonight through the first half of Tuesday maintaining light easterly flow. Midwestern low pressure lifts a warm front into the central Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon/evening bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms with some strong to severe storms possible over the southern Great Lakes. System's cold front quickly follows overnight setting up cooler westerly flow Wednesday, turning northeasterly Wednesday night. Cooler airmass combined with a tighter gradient due to secondary low development over the Ohio Valley supports a moderate uptick in wind strength Wednesday and Thursday with gusts topping out between 15-25kts each day. Saginaw Bay could see gusts near 30kts Thursday due to NE winds channeling down the bay.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 703 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- There is a risk for isolated strong to severe storms Tuesday evening southwest of a Midland to Port Huron line between 6 PM and 11 PM.
- Some gusts to 60 mph are possible with potential for isolated large hail to 1 inch in diameter.
- Cannot rule out an isolated weak tornado or two Tuesday evening.
- Mainly dry, breezy, and warmer Wednesday, then cooler again Thursday with additional opportunities for showers and thunderstorms.
AVIATION
Surface high pressure moves farther into Ontario and Quebec while maintaining control of conditions across SE Mi this evening. A gradual transition then begins late tonight and Tuesday morning.
Surface wind remains easterly while cloud layer wind veers SW as a warm front organizes in the Ohio valley. Clouds along and ahead of the front begin moving into Lower Mi with low end VFR ceiling as far north as FNT by sunrise. Low VFR holds into Tuesday afternoon with the first weakening wave of showers/storms, then ceiling trends down into MVFR as both showers and thunderstorms increase coverage and intensity late in the day into Tuesday evening. The best chance of thunderstorms is after 22Z Tuesday with very similar timing along the terminal corridor.
For DTW/D21 Convection... Thunderstorm potential increases across the region Tuesday afternoon. The first round of activity moves in on a weakening trend by mid afternoon followed by a round of stronger storms after 22Z Tuesday evening.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Medium for ceiling 5000 feet or less Tuesday morning, high Tuesday afternoon.
* Low for thunderstorms after 18Z Tuesday, moderate after 22Z Tuesday evening.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 356 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
DISCUSSION...
Ridging with central surface pressure of 1018 mb continues to anchor the Great Lakes by flanking the northward progression of scattered showers and storms attributed to troughing over the Ohio Valley.
Locally, expect near seasonable temperatures and dry conditions the rest of today and tonight with prevailing easterly flow and a persistent stream of high cirrus.
Expansive closed low occupying the western two-thirds of CONUS (producing widespread severe convection) retrogrades from the western Dakotas into eastern Montana Tuesday while the wave broadens meridionally. This pushes the system's elongated warm front northeastward into Lower Michigan with rapid moistening arriving after 15Z. Mean 850-700 mb layer dewpoints jump from around -30C early Tuesday morning to +5C after 18Z as the magnitude of water vapor transport increases sharply with the transition to cyclonic southwesterly flow. Current analysis depicts a line of convection extending from the Mid-Mississippi Valley up to the southern Canadian Prairies, closer to the actual surface low. CAMs highlight a tendency for decay as storms cross Lake Michigan and interface with a dry and stable ambient airmass. Most areas remain dry, at least through 18Z.
Height field adjustments along the eastern periphery of the system lend some uncertainty to the upstream evolution of convection as a secondary shortwave emerges and shears into southern Lower. The warm sector will fully encompass the region by 22Z, as a secondary (and more robust response) convection response arrives with additional storms track west to east. Given the slightly later arrival time and flatter diurnal curve, confidence in SBCAPE has trended lower as the main instability axis remains better centered over southwest Lower.
All hazards are in-play Tuesday evening for Southeast Michigan given the +60 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, southeasterly winds, and pockets of higher instability as mid-level lapse rates cool. A secondary surface low emerges as the triple point, and given the current curvature reflected in forecast hodographs, isolated rotating structures will be capable of generating some weak mesocyclones, augmented by the frontal intersections. Cannot rule out a few isolated weak tornados and some overachieving thunderstorm gusts.
SPC has upgraded the CWA to a Slight Risk near the MI/OH border with a Marginal risk elsewhere (excluding The Thumb). Storms largely depart/dissipate by 03Z with increasingly zonal flow aloft.
Warmer and more stable as dewpoints drop into the upper 40s to lower 50s Wednesday with decreasing sky opacity. Well-mixed boundary-layer supports some decent afternoon gusts in the 25-30 mph range. The next system crosses through Indiana and Ohio Wednesday with some additional shower/storms possible for southern Lower. The primary upper trough then splits again Thursday, taking aim at the Great Lakes Thursday while the broader longwave jet pattern remains quasi- stationary. Additional showers and storms are likely with much cooler temperatures Thursday, related to cold frontal forcing. The synoptic pattern unlocks Friday as an amplified ridge drops through the Upper Midwest. Drier weather will be short lived as a trailing PV anomaly drops into the region Saturday.
MARINE...
High pressure currently centered over Lake Huron gradually drifts east into Ontario tonight through the first half of Tuesday maintaining light easterly flow. Midwestern low pressure lifts a warm front into the central Great Lakes Tuesday afternoon/evening bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms with some strong to severe storms possible over the southern Great Lakes. System's cold front quickly follows overnight setting up cooler westerly flow Wednesday, turning northeasterly Wednesday night. Cooler airmass combined with a tighter gradient due to secondary low development over the Ohio Valley supports a moderate uptick in wind strength Wednesday and Thursday with gusts topping out between 15-25kts each day. Saginaw Bay could see gusts near 30kts Thursday due to NE winds channeling down the bay.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI | 10 mi | 45 min | ENE 8G | 56°F | 29.96 | |||
| AGCM4 | 29 mi | 45 min | 49°F | 51°F | 29.92 | |||
| THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH | 38 mi | 45 min | NNE 9.9G | 59°F | 29.92 | 47°F | ||
| SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH | 49 mi | 45 min | NNE 2.9G | 56°F | 29.93 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| CYQG WINDSOR,CN | 4 sm | 45 min | ENE 06 | 9 sm | Clear | 52°F | 41°F | 67% | 29.94 | |
| KDET COLEMAN A YOUNG MUNI,MI | 6 sm | 52 min | ENE 05 | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 37°F | 51% | 29.95 | |
| KMTC SELFRIDGE ANGB,MI | 19 sm | 49 min | ENE 06 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 52°F | 39°F | 62% | 29.92 | |
| KVLL OAKLAND/TROY,MI | 19 sm | 10 min | NE 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 57°F | 34°F | 41% | 29.98 | |
| KONZ GROSSE ILE MUNI,MI | 20 sm | 10 min | ENE 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 55°F | 32°F | 41% | 29.94 | |
| KDTW DETROIT METROPOLITAN WAYNE COUNTY,MI | 24 sm | 52 min | ESE 04 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 57°F | 34°F | 41% | 29.94 |
Detroit, MI,
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