Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Park, MI

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Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 9:13PM Thursday June 20, 2019 9:19 AM EDT (13:19 UTC) Moonrise 10:54PMMoonset 7:51AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 331 Am Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Today..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Periods of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the evening...then mostly clear after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny...then partly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201906202015;;772126 FZUS63 KDTX 200731 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 331 AM EDT Thu Jun 20 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure over Indiana and Ohio during the morning, 29.50 inches, moves eastward just south of Lake Erie today. High pressure waiting over northern Ontario near James Bay at 30.00 inches moves southward across the central Great Lakes tonight and holds in place over Lake Huron Friday and Saturday. High pressure then drifts eastward during Sunday as the next low pressure system develops over the Plains and Midwest. LCZ460-202015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Park, MI
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location: 42.34, -82.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201143
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
743 am edt Thu jun 20 2019

Aviation
Low pressure moves west to east along a front stalled over indiana
and ohio today and has already produced widespread showers and an
ifr combination of ceiling and visibility. The proximity of the low
pressure center to the ohio border makes these conditions last
through the day over the dtw corridor. The heaviest and most
widespread showers over the mbs to fnt area shift southward as the
low moves eastward and allows conditions to improve from north to
south across SE michigan during the afternoon. Moderate northerly
wind diminishes to light northwest this evening ahead of incoming
high pressure which promotes a decreasing cloud trend tonight.

There is little to no signal for fog in the data at this point
although some shallow coverage is possible around sunrise Friday as
high pressure holds clear sky and light wind over the wet ground.

For dtw... Borderline ifr lifr ceiling and ifr visibility sets in
and holds much of the day while showers increase coverage and
intensity. There have been no lightning strikes anywhere within the
shower pattern during the early morning and storm potential remains
very low and or limited to points south of the low track through the
day.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less today.

* low for ceiling 200 ft and or visibility 1 2 sm or less today.

* low for thunderstorm occurrence today.

Prev discussion
Issued at 313 am edt Thu jun 20 2019
discussion...

latest water vapor imagery shows multiple upper level
disturbances waves across the eastern plains east into great lakes
region ohio river valley. The strongest mid level circulation is
noted pushing into northern indiana with associated surface low
pressure (1000 mb) over west central indiana.

Across southeast michigan, the 00z RAOB came in about as expected,
with pw value just under 1.5 inches, 500 mb temp of -10 c, and mid
level lapse rates just under 6 c km. Lack of instability around
certainly will help limit heavy rainfall potential, but still will
have to watch for possible contraction of the deformation zone to
focus rainfall in this moisture rich environment (90th percent tile
based on climo). Fortunately, it appears the eastern plains
shortwaves are kicking the western ohio valley upper wave off to the
east at a fairly brisk pace, and the opportunity of organized heavy
rain will be relatively short lived, as the rap suggest the rain
showers activity will remain somewhat disorganized through the
morning hours (transitioning from north to south). The 00z NAM is
also indicating wandering but strong 850 700 mb fgen zones, which
should help most areas from getting much more than half an inch to
one inch. This is not to say a localized urban and small stream
advisory may not be needed somewhere with higher amounts. Best chance
of additional rainfall amounts in excess of 1 inch looks to be
toward the ohio border later this morning, closest to the 850
mb surface low track and where there exists a least some modest
instability CAPE to tap into.

Drier air will be slow to filter in from the northeast during the
day, as the elongated double barrel low pressure lingering back over
northern ohio may prolong some light rain during the afternoon
before good height rises kick in around after 00z. Thick overcast and
northeast winds off lake huron likely helping keep MAX temps under 70
degrees. With the rain today and skies clearing out tonight,
coupled with surface winds becoming very light by Friday morning,
patchy fog is a concern, but counting on enough low level drying to
offset the otherwise favorable conditions.

The drier trend for the weekend remains intact, and it now appears
the bulk of the weekend will end up dry, thanks to a strong backdoor
upper level wave diving south-southwest from james bay tonight, and
through georgian bay Friday evening. This will drive cooler and much
drier air into the central great lakes, with building surface high
pressure (1020+ mb) Friday night over lake huron. This will allow
for a very tight 850 mb moisture theta-e gradient setting up on
Saturday from chicago to detroit. The active warm front over the
midwest and potential MCS should dive southeast based off the
corfidi vectors and miss southeast michigan on Saturday. Perhaps
some higher based mid level forcing could allow for light
showers sprinkles to sneak in during Saturday south of i-69 and west
of u.S. 23, but 00z NAM would dispel that notion completely. Once
again, lowered nbm pops Friday night Saturday as some of the models
play catch up to the drier trend.

Upper level ridge axis will move overhead toward 00z Sunday, but
with possible high clouds and 850 mb temps advertised around 11 c,
will hold maxes predominantly in the 74-78 degree range for
Saturday.

The forecast for Sunday looks iffy with active warm front displaced
to our southwest, and convective influences will dictate exact
positioning, as upper level energy ejects out of the four corners
region northern mexico. Northern stream trough pushing into upper
mississippi river Sunday night will allow for strengthening low
level southeast flow, and it appears showers and thunderstorms will
be likely Sunday evening night over southeast michigan with warm
front and possible surface reflection tracking through. Considerable
mid high clouds convective debris on Sunday expected to hold maxes
in the lower 80s on Sunday, in line with latest euro mos.

Marine...

a low pressure system moves along a front stalled across indiana and
ohio today. It brings widespread showers from saginaw bay southward
and moderate moderate NE wind over all marine areas. Higher thermal
stability across the colder open waters of lake huron is so far
holding wind gusts and waves just below advisory threshold. Saginaw
bay continues to be monitored for higher wind gusts as the water is
considerably warmer there. The wind turns northerly and diminishes
tonight as the low pressure system exits eastward and allows weak
high pressure to build across the region from northern ontario. This
brings lighter wind and a break in rainfall across the central great
lakes Friday and Saturday. The next low pressure system organizes
over the plains and moves eastward Sunday into Monday.

Hydrology...

a complex rainfall scenario is in progress over lower michigan
during the early morning and will last through much of the day
before diminishing from north to south mid to late afternoon. A low
pressure system moving along a stalled front across indiana and ohio
supports a band of moderate to locally heavy showers mainly north of
i-69 before sunrise. Activity fills in to the south across the
detroit metro area to the ohio border during the morning while
intensity decreases north of i-69. The heavier rain focus to the
south then continues through much of the afternoon. Rainfall totals
average a half to three quarter inch across SE michigan with pockets
of 1 to 2 inches possible toward the ohio border depending on
location of repeated downpours. Short-duration flooding of low-lying
and poor drainage areas remains possible today along with subsequent
rises in area rivers and streams given the rainy conditions of
recent days.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for miz048-
054.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 10 mi79 min NE 8.9 G 8.9 63°F 1003 hPa (-0.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 15 mi79 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 60°F 62°F1 ft1001.5 hPa (+0.1)
AGCM4 29 mi49 min 60°F 58°F1002.5 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi39 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 64°F
45165 47 mi29 min E 5.8 G 5.8 66°F 68°F1 ft62°F
TWCO1 47 mi29 min ESE 8 G 12 995.8 hPa
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 49 mi79 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 63°F 1001.7 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi26 minNNE 45.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist64°F60°F87%1002.4 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi24 minNE 510.00 miLight Rain63°F58°F85%1003.7 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI20 mi83 minN 86.00 miFog/Mist62°F61°F100%1002.3 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi24 minNE 63.00 miLight Rain62°F60°F96%1002.4 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi26 minNNE 61.75 miLight Rain Fog/Mist63°F61°F93%1002.3 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S6S6S6SE6S8E10SE7SE8SE7SE5E10NE8NE6NE6NE5NE3N5N4N7NE5N6NE4N4
1 day agoNE33SE43E7SE7SE5SE6SE8SE6S6S7S3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE3N6E6SE6SE7E3E6E6E6SE5E5E5E3E4NE3E3CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.