Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Park, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 7:45PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 12:59 AM EDT (04:59 UTC) Moonrise 6:25PMMoonset 6:42AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 956 Am Edt Tue Mar 19 2019
Rest of today..Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny until late afternoon...then light rain late in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Light rain likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light rain early in the morning...then partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LCZ460 Expires:201903192015;;604056 FZUS63 KDTX 191356 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 956 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure averaging 30.50 inches will remain fixated across the Ohio Valley through this evening. This high will drift to the east tonight as the next low pressure system dives southeast from western Ontario into the northern great lakes. This low, averaging 29.80 inches, will continue into northern Lake Huron Wednesday and Wednesday night. This system will drag a cold front across lower Michigan, bringing a period of gusty southwest winds during this time. LCZ460-192015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Park, MI
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location: 42.34, -82.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 200346
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1146 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019

Aviation
The onset of nighttime cooling will lead to a clearing of the
remnant diurnal CU field over the next couple hours and will lower
the south-southwest winds speeds around shortly after sunset. SE mi
will remain under the influence of departing sfc high pressure
through the night. So other than a few high clouds, this system will
sustain clear skies into early Wed morning. A deepening low pressure
system will advance into lower mi Wed afternoon evening. This system
and its associated moisture transport will allow widespread rain,
with steadily lowering ceilings, to advance across SE mi during the
course of the afternoon Wednesday.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high in ceilings below 5000 ft late Wed afternoon and evening.

* high in precip type being all rain Wed afternoon and evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at detroit pontiac mi 342 pm edt Tue mar 19 2019
discussion...

confluent flow aloft and departing left entrance jet streak region
leading to weak subsidence and continued quiet weather across
southeast michigan this afternoon and evening. Surface heating and
boundary layer growth paired with enough moisture in the low levels
today has allowed for the development of stratocumulus across the
region, while surface high pressure moving into the appalachians has
resulted in light southwest return flow. Low clouds will clear out
again this evening as daytime mixing wanes. Lack of abundant cloud
cover tonight will allow for decent radiational cooling potential,
but the increasing gradient due to the departing high pressure will
keep winds slightly elevated and prevent full cooling potential from
being realized. Low temperatures in the lower 30s still look good
for tonight.

Rain returns to the forecast tomorrow as an amplifying upper
shortwave swings through the great lakes from the north and a weak
surface low develops over the lower peninsula. Another shortwave
visible in water vapor imagery over western nebraska this afternoon
will swing into the mid-mississippi valley Wednesday afternoon and
lead to a southwesterly 40 kt low level jet that will transport
ample moisture to the southern great lakes ahead of the northern
shortwave. Widespread light rain will develop during the early
afternoon into the evening as height falls move in, becoming more
scattered overnight as the trough axis moves overhead. Rain will be
the primary precip type, but some wet snowflakes have the potential
to mix in north of i-69 late Wednesday night as the low pressure and
main area of precip move out. QPF has trended upward with latest
model guidance, so have increased rainfall totals - more details are
described in the hydrology section below. Modest southwest flow will
persist through the day Wednesday with gusts in the afternoon up to
20 to 30 mph. Modest warm advection and good mixing in this flow
will help temperatures reach the mid to upper 40s before clouds
thicken and rain sets in.

A weak cold front will pass through early Thursday and usher in dry
air aloft from the northwest which will shut off any lingering
showers during the morning hours. Thursday will be dry and
seasonable with temperatures in the mid 40s. However, there will be
another chance for light rain and snow for the eastern thumb
overnight into early Friday as another shortwave dives southward
into the region. The bulk of the precipitation looks to remain to
the east.

High amplitude ridge sliding across the central us on Friday. The
result will be a mostly dry end to the work week with michigan
placed on the east side of this ridge. The exception being a slight
chance for some lingering light precipitation on Friday across the
thumb region under nnw flow behind the passing cold front. High
temperatures will dip into the mid upper 30s and low 40s for Friday
before temperatures trend upward through the weekend. Expecting
mostly sunny skies through the majority of the weekend as surface
high pressure moves through the great lakes region. Temperatures
warming into the 50s by Sunday as 850 mb temperatures increase to
around 2c. Precipitation chances return to the forecast late Sunday
as the ridge breaks down and weak waves track over michigan with a
cold front also advancing southward. Passing cold front will
maintain precipitation chances into Monday morning with high
temperatures Monday afternoon cooling back into the 30s and 40s.

Marine...

a rather complicated near surface pressure pattern will evolve the
next day or so, as two systems attempt a merger over the great lakes
region on Wednesday. Winds will respond by initially ramping up from
the southwest tonight into Wednesday areawide, with highest gusts
exceeding 25 knots on lake huron. Winds and waves will relax
somewhat, as the combined low pressure system weakens over the
region, Wednesday night. A modest west-northwest flow will become
established on Thursday before increasing in strength Thursday night
on the way to possible northerly gale conditions on Friday over lake
huron. Expect ice breakup to continue with the changing wind
conditions and relatively mild weather.

Hydrology...

light rain is expected to overspread southeast michigan Wednesday
afternoon with rather uniform rainfall totals of three to four
tenths of an inch. Most mainstem rivers have subsided significantly
over the last several days. The additional precipitation will only
serve to slow the steady decrease with no additional river flooding
expected. Susceptible collection areas, that likely already contain
run-off water, will swell with the additional precipitation.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Tf aa
marine... ... .Mann
hydrology... .Mann
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 10 mi59 min SSW 5.1 G 6 38°F 1026.1 hPa (-0.3)
AGCM4 29 mi59 min 36°F 35°F1025.4 hPa (+0.0)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi59 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 38°F
TWCO1 47 mi39 min SSW 8.9 G 9.9 40°F 1022.8 hPa27°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 49 mi59 min SSW 7 G 8 38°F 1027.1 hPa (-0.6)

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi67 minSW 610.00 miFair37°F24°F59%1026.5 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI19 mi65 minSW 410.00 miFair39°F22°F53%1026.4 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI20 mi64 minSSW 510.00 miFair36°F27°F72%1026 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi64 minSW 410.00 miFair37°F27°F70%1025.7 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi67 minSSW 510.00 miFair34°F24°F67%1026.5 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4W4W4W5W4W4CalmCalmCalmW3W45W5W6W10
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1 day agoW4W3W4CalmW3CalmCalmCalmW3N6N6CalmW4NW7NW6NW5SW4NW7W4S8S5SW6SW5SW5
2 days agoNW6NW5NW4CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmS6S8S8S9SW7S8S9S7SW8S8SW5SW6W4W4SW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.