Sunday, November19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Coxsackie, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:30PM Sunday November 19, 2017 9:04 AM EST (14:04 UTC) Moonrise 8:38AMMoonset 6:41PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 644 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Today..W winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers early this morning, then chance of showers late this morning.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 40 kt, decreasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 644 Am Est Sun Nov 19 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A strong cold will sweep across the area early this morning with high pressure building in its wake. The high will pass to the south Monday and Tuesday, followed by a cold front on Wednesday. Another area of high pressure will build late week, followed by low pressure moving across on Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Coxsackie, NY
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location: 42.35, -73.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 191151
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
651 am est Sun nov 19 2017

Synopsis
A strong cold front will sweep across the area this morning. Conditions
will become blustery with a colder air mass being ushered in during
the day. Precipitation will become less widespread with a mix and
changeover to snow across the the higher terrain. Lake effect snow
will develop by this evening impacting the western and central mohawk
valley and schoharie valley tonight then shifting northward into
the western and southern adirondacks on Monday. While isolated
to scattered showers are expected elsewhere.

Near term through tonight
As of 630 am, shortwave trough now crossing eastern ny pa with
well-defined dry slot noted on water vapor imagery. This dry
slot is coincident with a sharp surface cold front is currently
crossing the western mohawk valley and southern adirondacks.

The surface low is analyzed roughly across far northern new york
at 983 mb. Good model agreement in tracking this low up the st.

Lawrence valley through 00z Monday, deepening to roughly 977 mb.

The impinging dry slot has allowed for lessening coverage of
showers, but showers will increase along the cold front again as
it tracks through the region. In the prefrontal airmass, temps
across western new england have spiked into the mid-50s as
better mixing than anticipated has occurred. Kddh gusted to 40
kt so we have added bennington and western windham counties to
the wind advisory.

The cold front is still on track to reach the catskills and hudson
valley around 12-13z, and western new england around 13-14z.

The front will be accompanied by a wind shift to westerly over
most areas. Strong cold advection and downward momentum
transport will result in winds quickly becoming gusty in the
wake of the front. Post-frontal wind gusts across
western central ny pa have largely ranged in the 40-55 mph
range. Have issued an sps to highlight quick increase in wind
gusts along the front. Cross sections across the front at
12-15z on the 06z NAM reveal a deepening boundary layer tapping
into 30-40 kt of cross- frontal winds at 925 mb which could
represent common gusts within the wind advisory area, roughly
along and south of the mohawk valley, capital district, and
berkshires. 850 mb winds are 45-50 kt at the top of the boundary
layer, which represents a high- end isolated gust potential.

However, some question with how deep we actually do mix given
that there is likely to be sct-bkn coverage of clouds. So, at
this time do not anticipate upgrading to a high wind warning and
the current hazards look good as they are.

As the front passes and rapid cold-air advection ensues (e.G., h850
temps falling roughly 15c from 09-18z), rain will turn to snow
across the western adirondacks which are likely to get brushed by a
progressive deformation zone. This could result in a dusting up to
an inch or two of snow in spots today. Another spot which could see
an inch or two of accumulation today is the southern green mountains
with moist upslope flow. Elsewhere, the coverage of showers should
diminish today.

Tonight, concern turns toward lake effect snow potential. H850 temps
fall to near -12c over lake ontario, representing a delta-t of
around 22c. A secondary shortwave, seen crossing the upper midwest
early this morning, will result in a return to cyclonic flow tonight
after very brief midlevel ridging this afternoon. Per local
research, good setup for inland extent of les band, given multi-lake
(superior georgian bay) connection, moderate instability, fairly
unidirectional low-level flow, good speed shear in the sfc-1 km
layer, low speed shear in the 1-3 km layer, and inversion depths
approaching 3 km agl per forecast soundings at kuca. The band looks
to target southern parts of the mohawk valley into the schoharie
valley initially (around 00-03z). Thereafter, the band has the
potential to extend eastward toward the capital district, taconics,
berkshires, and possibly even NW ct. Roughly 1 to 4 inches is
forecast overnight where the band will be the most long-lived
(mohawk schoharie valleys), with a few tenths up to an inch over the
remainder of the aforementioned areas depending on where exactly the
band sets up. Since it is lake effect, there is potential for sharp
snowfall gradients and isolated higher totals if the band remains
stationary. Hi-res models show potential for large inland extent,
e.G., the 4km NAM extending a snow band clear into northeastern ct.

Short term Monday through Tuesday
Lake effect snows will continue on Monday. However the low level
flow will back as ridging builds in and the band will shift northward
out of the schoharie and western central mohawk valleys into the
western and southern adirondacks. An additional inch or so of snow
is expected Monday in the western mohawk valley with 1 to 3 inches
in the western adirondacks. Isolated to scattered snow showers
are expected across much of the forecast area during the day
with upslope snow showers across the taconics, berkshires and
southern green mountains with the brisk westerly flow.

It will be another blustery day as the region is squeezed between
the departing system and an advancing highs. Will have westerly
flow again however not be as strong as today (Sunday). Expecting
gusts up to 30 to 35 mph down the mohawk valley across the capital
district, taconics and berkshires as well as across the eastern
catskills, litchfield hills and southern green mountains.

Temperatures will run 5 to 10 degrees below normal mainly in the
30s. Lower 40s are forecast for the mid hudson valley with
mid upper 20s for the terrain 2000 feet and above.

Long term Tuesday night through Saturday
Fair conditions are expected much of the week with unsettled weather
for the weekend. Guidance is in general agreement the longwave should
feature a trough over the great lakes region and northeast with
northern stream short waves reinforcing it. While southern stream
energy should remain separated.

A cold front is expected to sweep across the region Tuesday night
into Wednesday however the main low passes well to our north
across eastern canada and moisture should limited. A coastal low
associated with southern stream energy is forecast to pass well
south of long island during the day Wednesday. Only have slight
to low chance pops across local area for snow and rain showers.

Surface high builds in and is expected to dominate our weather
through Friday while aloft the region is expected to between
short wave troughs. Thus fair weather with light winds expected
thanksgiving.

The next northern stream short wave is expected to deepen the
trough across the eastern united states with its associated low
pressure system forecast to track across the great lakes into
the northeast Saturday. There are some differences in the guidance
with the exact track and timing of the system however there is
agreement the main low should pass to our north; the question
is how far to the north. Introduced pops Friday night as system
approaches with chance pops across the area with snow showers
changing to rain showers as we warm in southerly flow ahead of
the system.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
Strong cold front continues to move across the region. Winds are
shifting to the west with a strong gusts with its passage. This
is expected to occur around 13z for kalb kpou kgfl and around
14z for kpsf. MVFR conditions are expected to improve toVFR in
the wake of the frontal passage, although upsloping should keep
ceilings at MVFR levels much of the taf. Chances for showers
will decrease as the day progresses at the tafs sites with
chances for snow showers returning at kalb and kpsf this evening
as lake effect develops. Have addressed threat with vcsh in
tafs at this time.

Southerly winds ahead of the cold front will wipe around to the west
with its passage, the westerly winds will be strong and gusty
today with sustained winds of 20 to 30 knots and gusts 35 to 40
knots. Winds will decrease early this evening but remain gusty.

The gusts are expected to die off at kpou and kgfl however
persist through the overnight at kalb and kpsf.

Outlook...

Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Shsn.

Wednesday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Shsn.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thanksgiving day: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
A strong cold front will sweep across the area this morning.

Conditions will become blustery with a colder air mass being
ushered in during the day. Precipitation will become less
widespread with a mix and changeover to snow across the the
higher terrain. Lake effect snow will develop by this evening
impacting the western and central mohawk valley and schoharie
valley tonight then shifting northward into the western and
southern adirondacks on Monday. While isolated to scattered
showers are expected elsewhere.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems are expected on the main stem rivers for
the next several days.

A strong cold front will sweep across the area this morning
and precipitation will become less widespread with a mix and
changeover to snow across the the higher terrain as colder air
is ushered in. Lake effect snow will develop by this evening
impacting the western and central mohawk valley and schoharie
valley tonight then shifting northward into the western and
southern adirondacks on Monday. While isolated to scattered
showers are expected elsewhere. Mainly fair weather is then
expected the rest of the week with unsettled weather expected
for next weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for ctz001-013.

Ny... Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for nyz038>040-
047>054-058>061-063>066-082.

Ma... Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for maz001-025.

Vt... Wind advisory until 6 pm est this evening for vtz013-014.

Synopsis... Iaa
near term... Thompson
short term... Iaa
long term... Iaa
aviation... Iaa thompson
fire weather... Iaa
hydrology... Iaa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 24 mi95 min 52°F 986 hPa51°F

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY28 mi74 minW 27 G 392.50 miLight Rain Squalls and Windy48°F42°F80%988 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW18
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W10NW6NW93W5CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSW3
2 days agoS10S9S7NW5S4W7W16
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Tide / Current Tables for Coxsackie, Hudson River, New York
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Coxsackie
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:15 AM EST     3.71 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:08 AM EST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 04:37 PM EST     4.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:41 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:42 PM EST     -0.15 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.22.12.83.43.73.52.821.40.60.10.41.42.53.54.24.74.84.132.11.20.2-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Hudson
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sun -- 03:10 AM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:36 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:26 PM EST     4.64 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:30 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:41 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 10:11 PM EST     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.92.93.743.83.22.21.40.70.20.10.92.13.34.14.64.643.121.10.4-0.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.