Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Chicago, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 4:31PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 6:21 PM CST (00:21 UTC) Moonrise 1:30PMMoonset 11:33PM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 305 Pm Cst Wed Nov 14 2018
Tonight..Northeast winds less than 10 kt becoming southeast 10 to 15 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of snow in the morning, possibly mixed with rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday..West winds 15 to 25 kt. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
LMZ740 Expires:201811150430;;307572 FZUS53 KLOT 142105 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 305 PM CST Wed Nov 14 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-150430-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Chicago, IL
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location: 42.35, -87.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 142335
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
535 pm cst Wed nov 14 2018

Short term
121 pm cst
through Thursday...

short term forecast focus centers around a round of accumulating
snowfall late tonight into Thursday, with some uncertainty as to
how far the precip shield will get, where any potential snow bands
will set up in the afternoon, along with precipitation type icing
concerns mainly late tonight into early Thursday.

High pressure is in place across the area this afternoon, making
for seasonally cold but dry conditions. There is some lake induced
stratocumulus cloud near lakefront areas, but low level flow will
turn around to the southeast south which should limit the inland
extent of these clouds. Our next feature of interest is the
closed upper level low across the ARKLATEX region. With the cold
air in place, this low will bring significant accumulating
snowfall downstate. The upper low will spread to the mid
mississippi valley in downstate il tonight, and then spread east
through the ohio valley on Thursday. This track will favor areas
south for precipitation, but there is a nice trowal-like feature
that will setup out ahead of this system. There is a decent
precipitable water axis that will setup in the southeast lower
level flow.

Guidance is still suggesting a surge of precipitation later
tonight into Thursday morning, though a weakening trend is noted
as the precip shield spreads farther north. Blended forecast
soundings suggest p-type should be mostly snow in our area, but
there is a a narrow corridor across benton newton jasper, possibly
into ford iroquois that could have some mixed precip per the rap
the nam GFS ec are all less aggressive with this warm nose, thus
will hold off on any advisory for light icing given confidence
issues, but something for the evening shift to monitor.

There are then hints that some additional snow bands will form in
the later morning early afternoon, possibly over portions of the
chicago area. This timing is not favorable for pavement
accumulation, as surface temperatures should be above freezing,
and outside the main band rain could mix in. But under the main
band column cooling would support all snow should a single band
set up, and some grassy accums would be possible. Low confidence
on the exact placement of this.

For our southern areas, forecast amounts have not changed a whole
lot from previous ones, but the daytime precipitation does
appear to be more localized and tied to the deformation zone.

Still advertising a 1-3" type wet snow for some areas.

Kmd

Long term
121 pm cst
Thursday night through Wednesday...

following thursdsay's system, the upper level flow will shift back
to northwesterly. The current system across the pacific northwest
will follow an active upper jet and quickly cruise into the area
Thursday night. The main moisture axis surface feature will pass
across northern and central lake michigan. There is a sharp upper
trough, and along the nose of the jet we could see some very
light precip during this time frame, but feel like most areas will
remain dry. If there is some precip, it could actually be freezing
drizzle given a nice wave and a deepening low level moisture field,
but limited deeper moisture. This does appear more likely north
of our area, but something to watch. There will also be some
breezy southwest to west winds out ahead of the low.

The more active wave will follow on the heels of this one as the
northwest flow strengthens, and a stronger upper trough gets
carved out across hudson bay. This feature will bring cold arctic
frontal boundary back southward, bringing a reinforcing shot of
cold air, along with the chance for snow Saturday morning. There
are several factors going for quick hitting snow chances in the
region during this time. The first being a strengthening upper jet
just north of the area, a tightening frontal boundary, and a low
amplitude shortwave. The frontal signal is strongest while the
upper forcing is still modest, but the frontogenetic signal is
strong enough to suggest a round of light snow can be expected.

Models are still mixed as to how far south the frontal zone will
be, but the most likely time period would be Saturday morning.

Snow amounts would not be high given the fast moving nature of the
upper wave, but brief moderate rates would be possible where the
frontal zone is strongest. There is a chance for some lake effect
snow in the afternoon early evening, but confidence is still low
on that.

Cold and dry conditions follow, but there are hints of a small
warmup at some point next week.

Kmd

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

vfr conditions through early Thursday morning with light, mainly
easterly, winds. During the morning Thursday, some snow, possibly
mixed with rain, is expected attempt to move north into the
chicago metro area terminals. However, low level dry air, could
impede the northward progress some. There are a handful of high
resolution forecast models that suggest a narrow, but more intense
band of snow could develop right over the chicago area late
Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon. Confidence in whether
the band materializes is not terribly high, and subsequently if it
does, where it will impact becomes a question. Given the
uncertainties, felt the previous TAF nicely conveyed the forecast
scenario.

- izzi

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 1 mi161 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 31°F
45186 1 mi21 min NE 5.8 32°F 43°F1 ft
45187 10 mi21 min 32°F 44°F1 ft
45174 16 mi21 min ENE 5.8 G 7.8 32°F 47°F1 ft26°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 17 mi21 min ENE 4.1 G 7 31°F 1031.2 hPa (-1.6)
FSTI2 27 mi81 min NE 14 32°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 32 mi31 min ENE 7 G 8 34°F 25°F
CNII2 35 mi21 min NE 8 G 9.9 32°F 24°F
JAKI2 41 mi81 min E 8.9 G 11 35°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 45 mi33 min NNE 7 G 9.9 33°F 1030.5 hPa26°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 46 mi31 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 31°F 46°F1 ft1033.1 hPa23°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 48 mi31 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 31°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL6 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair24°F18°F77%1033.4 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL18 mi29 minN 010.00 miFair30°F21°F69%1032.8 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI18 mi28 minE 310.00 miFair25°F21°F85%1032.7 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3W3W3W3NW3CalmNW3NW3CalmNW3NW3N5N4NW433S35NE4E3E4NE3Calm
1 day agoN5NW7NW4NW6NW6NW6NW7
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2 days agoSW3SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW3NW3NW3N3N3N3N8NW6NW7
G17
NW6NW6N7NW65N6
G17
NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.