Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chelsea, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:30AMSunset 4:26PM Monday November 12, 2018 8:02 PM EST (01:02 UTC) Moonrise 12:00PMMoonset 9:32PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 716 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
.gale warning in effect late Tuesday night...
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 4 ft after midnight. A slight chance of rain this evening, then rain after midnight.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft. Areas of fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 2 ft, except up to 5 ft at the outer harbor entrance.
Wed..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely. A chance of snow and sleet in the evening, then sleet likely after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pressure will sweep over se new england on Tuesday with gale force winds as well as moderate to heavy rain. A brief reprieve Wednesday into Thursday before another storm system follows late Thursday night into Friday. High pressure returns for the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chelsea, MA
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location: 42.37, -71.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 122342
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
642 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis
Potent low pressure tracks up the eastern seaboard later tonight and
across southeast ma Tue afternoon resulting in a windswept soaking
rain, with potentially damaging winds over CAPE cod and the islands.

Blustery and colder conditions return Tuesday night into Wednesday
with diminishing Thursday but remaining cold. Another storm will
impact the region late Thursday into Friday, which may be
accompanied by some wintry weather at the start. Colder and drier
weather follows next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
640 pm update...

high clouds overspreading sne this evening which will slow
temperature fall. No changes to precip onset with latest hi-res
guidance continuing to show precip overspreading sne from SW to
ne between midnight and 3 am. Current forecast on track.

Previous discussion...

model consensus including the 12z href have rain overspreading
the region from 12 am to 3 pm from west to east. Inland temps
will fall into the 30s from evaporative cooling. Model soundings
do support a few hours of wet snow possible across northwest ma
including franklin county where a coating to 2 inches is
possible. However this will be short lived and will wash away by
the morning commute as snow changes to rain.

Elsewhere, temperatures will rise toward morning in response to
increasing southeast winds off the ocean as low pressure tracks into
southern nj.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
4 pm update...

* highlights...

- intensifying coastal low tracks near the i-95 corridor
- strong to damaging winds possible CAPE cod & islands tue
- 3-6 hour window of heavy rain approximately 8 am to noon
- minor flooding of small rivers & streams possible including
the sudbury river at saxonville and pawtuxet river at
cranston along with minor street & highway flooding
strong damaging winds...

very strong low level southerly jet moves across CAPE cod and the
islands between 15z-18z accompanying intensifying low tracking thru
i-95 corridor of ct-ri into into CAPE cod bay. Highest risk of
damaging winds will be in the warm sector. Some uncertainty on the
exact track of the surface low which will dictate areal extent of
warm sector. Highest confidence for damaging winds is across
nantucket with the threat diminishing northward. Thus will convert
high wind watch to a high wind warning for nantucket and go with a
high wind watch for CAPE cod and marthas vineyard. Model soundings
in the low levels become neutral here with 60 kt of wind below a 1
kft at nantucket. So even if higher winds aloft don't transfer to the
surface, sustained winds may reach warning criteria of 35 kt 40 mph.

Some increased forecast certainty regarding strong winds comes from
12z models trending upward with intensity of low level jet along
with a very impressive rise fall pres couplet with 17mb pres fall
from 12z-18z centered over CAPE cod and the islands. This will
enhance the isallobaric wind component and increase the threat for
damaging winds. Elsewhere winds will be considerable less given the
cooler stable surface temperatures on the NW side of the low track.

Heavy rain flood risk...

rain will be across the entire region at daybreak with rain
intensity increasing 7 am to 10 am from west to east across the area
as 90 kt low level southerly jet acts on pwats surging upward to 1.5
inches. Thus heavy rain will impact the morning commute but the
heaviest rain may wait until the tail end of the morning rush, say 9
am to noon-ish. Good model agreement now on QPF with a widespread
0.75-1.5 inches with heaviest totals across ct-ri and southeast ma,
with low prob of isolated 2 inch amounts along the south coast. The
progressive nature of this system will limit the flood threat, thus
decided to hold off on a flood watch.

As for rivers and streams, the sudbury river at saxonville and the
pawtuxet river at cranston may experience minor flooding. However
both of these sites may remain below flood stage. Thus given the low
probability here of flooding will hold off on any river flood
watches.

The low quickly exits the eastern ma coast after 18z so expecting a
drying trend during the afternoon along with gusty west winds and
cooler temps.

Tuesday night...

blustery and turning much colder with 850 temps crashing from +2c at
00z to -13c by 12z wed! Gusty NW winds up to 40-45 mph will make it
feel even colder with air temps falling into the 20s but wind chills
in the teens!

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Highlights...

* windy and cold wed, then coldest air of the season Wed night
* another storm late Thu into Fri with rain snow ice possible
* mainly dry and colder next weekend into early next week
Wednesday into Wednesday night...

windy and cold day Wed with strong W NW flow. Soundings show a deep
and well mixed boundary layer which supports gusts to 40-50 mph,
especially across central and NE ma, with 30-40 mph gusts elsewhere.

Wind advisories will likely be needed for a portion of sne.

Strongest wind gusts through early afternoon then slowly
diminishing. Expect lots of sunshine wed, although lake effect
moisture may result in clouds spilling into northern ct and SW ma.

850 mb temps down to -12 to -14c Wed so highs will only reach
mid upper 30s with lower 30s higher terrain. Wind chills in the 20s
with upper teens higher terrain.

Coldest night of the season by far Wed night as strong high pres
builds into new eng with clear skies and diminishing winds and very
dry airmass in place. Excellent radiational cooling will result in
lows dropping into the teens for much of the region, a little milder
in boston and outer CAPE islands. Some single numbers possible in
the ct valley in northern ma.

Thursday into Friday...

dry weather and sunshine to start the day with high pres in control.

But clouds will overspread region during the day as the high moves
offshore. Model guidance indicating a rather potent southern stream
closed low lifting NE into new eng fri. While system is de-
amplifying and opening up, it still moves through as a robust
negative tilt trough, ensuring a period of heavy precip and strong
winds. Timing brings onset of precip north across the region thu
afternoon evening with precip persisting through Thu night and into
Friday as the potent negative tilt trough moves across the region.

Strong high pres north of the region will provide enough cold air at
the start for some snow mixed precip, especially interior. How long
snow ice mixed precip hangs on in the interior and specific
accumulations will depend on the low track and details of thermal
profile. However, some snow and or ice accum is likely in the
interior. Looking at mostly rain by Friday.

Saturday into Monday...

turning colder, especially Sun into Mon as departing shortwave
brings reinforcing shot of colder air. Expect temps well below
normal Sun mon. Saturday will be transition day with temps close to
seasonable. Mainly dry during this period, although some rain snow
showers possible with shortwave passage Sat night.

Aviation 00z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ...

00z update...

thru this evening...VFR, dry weather and modest ssw winds. High
confidence.

Overnight... Rain overspreads the area from west to east 05z to
08z.VFR conditions quickly becoming MVFR with areas of ifr in
the worcester hills. High confidence.

Tuesday... MVFR to start but then lowering to ifr in periods of
heavy rain beginning around 13z thru 17z from west to east. Then
rapidly improving after 17z from west to east with rain exiting
and improving to MVFR thenVFR. Llws 12z-17z southeast ma
including CAPE cod and the islands with 90 kt low level
southerly jet. Sharp wind shift 16z-19z to the NW 20-30g40 kt.

High confidence on overall theme but lower confidence on
specific timing.

Tuesday night... Strong NW winds 25-35g45 kt.VFR and dry
weather.

Kbos terminal...

strong surface wind and llws south of boston over CAPE cod and
islands. Heaviest rain 14z-17z then sharp wind shift to the nw.

Kbdl terminal...

potential llws with sse low level jet 09z-12z tue. Heaviest rain
12z-15z.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ...

Wednesday:VFR. Strong winds with gusts to 40 kt.

Wednesday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible late with chance
pl, chance sn, chance ra.

Thursday night: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Windy
with gusts to 35 kt. Pl likely, ra likely, fzra likely, sn
likely.

Friday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Strong winds with
local gusts to 40 kt. Ra likely, fzra likely.

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with
areas gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance ra, slight chance shsn.

Saturday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

Tonight...

light winds to start but SE gales toward morning along with rain and
fog lowering vsby.

Tuesday...

se gales with strongest winds near 50 kt possible across the waters
of CAPE cod and the islands between 10 am and 1 pm, as intensifying
low pres tracks near the i-95 corridor of ct-ri into CAPE cod bay.

Rain and fog reduce vsby but improving in the afternoon with a wind
shift to the west.

Tuesday night...

west gales likely along with improving vsby.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ...

Wednesday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
45 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.

Wednesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Chance of rain. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Thursday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely.

Friday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft. Rain likely.

Friday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft.

Saturday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High wind watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon
for maz022-023.

High wind warning from 10 am to 2 pm est Tuesday for maz024.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning from 7 am Tuesday to 6 am est Wednesday for
anz231>235-237-250-251-254>256.

Gale warning from 1 am to 6 am est Wednesday for anz230.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Tuesday to 6 am est Wednesday
for anz236.

Synopsis... Kjc nocera
near term... Kjc nocera
short term... Nocera
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc nocera
marine... Kjc nocera


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 1 mi32 min 45°F 1028.7 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 22 mi72 min S 14 G 16 47°F 52°F1 ft1028.9 hPa (+0.4)35°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 28 mi58 min SSW 16 G 18 47°F 50°F2 ft1028.4 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 43 mi32 min S 1.9 G 2.9 44°F 49°F1028.4 hPa
PVDR1 44 mi32 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 1028.9 hPa37°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 46 mi32 min 44°F 52°F1029.4 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 46 mi32 min SSE 7 G 9.9 46°F 1029.1 hPa
FRXM3 47 mi32 min 44°F 34°F
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 47 mi62 min SSW 16 G 18 46°F 1028.3 hPa (+0.0)32°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 48 mi32 min SSE 9.9 G 12 47°F 51°F1028.9 hPa
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 49 mi77 min ENE 1 34°F 30°F

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA2 mi68 minS 710.00 miOvercast45°F32°F61%1029.2 hPa
East Milton, MA11 mi66 minS 10 mi40°F30°F68%1029.7 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA14 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair40°F32°F73%1029.1 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA14 mi66 minS 510.00 miA Few Clouds42°F28°F58%1029.9 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA16 mi69 minS 410.00 miFair43°F28°F58%1028.5 hPa

Wind History from BOS (wind in knots)
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W9W10W10W9W8W8W5W6NW5NW4CalmCalmCalmS6S8SW9
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SW7SW7SW10S9SW9S7S7
1 day agoW18
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2 days agoE14E22
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N13N9N6N6W8W9W10W16
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Tide / Current Tables for Charlestown Bridge, Charles River, Massachusetts
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Charlestown Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:07 AM EST     9.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:03 AM EST     1.33 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:59 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:13 PM EST     9.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:32 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:38 PM EST     0.48 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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6.78.49.28.87.55.83.82.11.31.93.55.37.39.19.99.68.36.54.42.30.80.61.63.1

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:41 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:08 AM EST     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:30 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:08 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:58 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:20 AM EST     1.04 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:55 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:35 PM EST     -1.13 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:32 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:42 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.4-0.2-0.5-0.8-0.9-1-0.9-0.10.71110.6-0-0.5-0.8-1-1.1-1.1-0.60.30.80.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.