Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Plymouth, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:32PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:53 AM EDT (05:53 UTC) Moonrise 1:14AMMoonset 4:14PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0044.000000t0000z-170811t2045z/ 442 Pm Edt Fri Aug 11 2017
.the special marine warning will expire at 445 pm edt... The affected areas were... Detroit river... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4205 8323 4206 8323 4219 8319 4222 8313 4217 8313 4212 8312 4205 8315 4201 8314 4201 8315 time...mot...loc 2042z 269deg 38kt 4210 8301
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201708112052;;233222 FZUS73 KDTX 112042 RRA MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 442 PM EDT FRI AUG 11 2017 LCZ423-112052-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plymouth, MI
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location: 42.37, -83.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 170352
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1152 pm edt Wed aug 16 2017

Aviation
Vfr conditions should hold much of the night. However, increasing
low level moisture in advance of a warm front will bring some light
fog potential and eventual MVFR CIGS with showers thundestorms on
Thursday morning. This stratus strato-cu should hold much of the day
as the front slowly lifts through lower michigan and another late
day round of scattered showers storms possible as a trough axis
pivots into area around low pressure to the north that is forcing
this front north through the area today. East southeast flow will
become southwest with the passage of the front with wind gusts on
the order of 20 knots or so.

For dtw... Low level moisture increases substantially late tonight
into Thursday morning with ceilings below 5kft on and off through
the balance of the forecast. Two possible waves of thunderstorms are
anticipated - one in the 12-16z window and the other during the mid-
late afternoon on Thursday. These window still seem reasonable and
first wave probably warrant an "upgrade" to tempo now that forecast
is inside of 9 hours from onset.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* medium for ceilings at or below 5000 ft after 12z.

* medium for thunderstorms affecting the airspace Thursday morning,
but lower confidence for late afternoon activity at this time.

Prev discussion
Issued at 341 pm edt Wed aug 16 2017
discussion...

surface ridging tucked beneath weakly confluent mid level flow will
sustain deep layer dry and stable conditions heading into tonight.

Attention shifts to elongated shortwave energy now noted on water
vapor ejecting out of the rockies. This energy will consolidate into
a deeper wave within the next 24 hours as it settles into the upper
ms valley. The immediate kinematic response downstream will result a
substantial northward surge of moisture lodging within a deepening
southwest flow. The effective system relative isentropic ascent tied
to a burgeoning warm conveyor along the eastern flank will then
shift this moisture directly toward the great lakes on Thursday.

Cams model solutions are now indicating a progressive early response
locally along the advancing 850 mb warm frontal slope, with the lead
mid level theta-e gradient working to saturate the column and
potentially generating a scattered coverage of showers by the 08z-
11z window. Steady deep layer moisture flux and diminishing mid
level stability thereafter as the warm front lifts through will then
bring a higher probability for elevated convective development from
mid morning through the early afternoon hours. High moisture content
- pw over 2 inches - could certainly lead to some localized
regions of heavy rainfall.

A very moist warm sector will briefly intrude southeast michigan
late Thursday. Model guidance resoundingly push dewpoints of lower
70s up into the region within this narrow pre-cold frontal window.

Destabilization potential governed by the degree of removal and
overall exit timing of the early day cloud debris precip. Given the
moisture content, plausible this environment simply freely convects
with persistent pockets of weakly organized convection prior to the
arrival of the pre-frontal trough. This in turn would short circuit
the prospects of realizing better airmass recovery. In addition,
lapse rates will remain paltry given the moist profile, so there
remains a ceiling for potential instability despite the high
dewpoints. However, a more progressive exit of warm frontal debris
could still allow for a moderate level of instability to emerge -
mlcape perhaps reaching 2000 j kg. Should this materialize, then
bulk shear in excess of 30 knots would support deep organized
updrafts. General signal for a multi-cell mode, with the prospects
for wet microbursts elevated given high CAPE density within heavily
precip loaded updrafts. In addition, heavy rainfall a definitive
threat. Greatest window for possible severe convection centered 21z-
01z.

Frontal passage Thursday night will sweep the deep moisture plume
eastward. Simply a subtle airmass change in terms of temperatures,
primarily noteworthy for the reduction in moisture content. A
moderately mixed profile up through 850 mb will support highs
ranging from mid 70s north to lower 80s south. A firm west-southwest
gradient contained within the southern bounds of a surface low
lifting north of lake huron will provide gusty conditions during the
daylight period. Just enough lingering moisture working through the
backside of this system to perhaps generate some isolated showers
across the north.

A broad surface high pressure system building east from iowa into
the ohio valley will look to keep conditions relatively dry
throughout the weekend, with the exception of Saturday morning and
afternoon, where troughing aloft with an embedded upper-level
disturbance will bring the chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Otherwise, both Sunday and Monday will look to stay on the dry side,
as south to southwesterly flow provides ample heat to push daytime
highs in the mid 80s, and possibly even the upper 80s across the
metro detroit area. The next chance for showers and thunderstorms
will return on Tuesday as a cold front pushes across the state. Dry
air will filter back in behind the front for the mid-week period, as
temperatures stay capped in the mid to upper 70s for a high.

Marine...

southeast to south flow will increase substantially Thursday as a
storm system moves across the great lakes region. Showers and
thunderstorms are expected with this system on Thursday. Behind the
cold front, Thursday night, moderate southwest to west flow will
setup. The stronger winds will encourage higher waves to initially
setup in the southeast flow along the lake huron shoreline, then
transition to a more typical offshore flow setup with higher waves
in saginaw bay on Friday.

Hydrology...

a very moist airmass will advance into southeast michigan during the
day Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along
the incoming warm front. Additional showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop in the moisture rich environment during the
afternoon and evening hours Thursday. Rainfall amounts in excess of
a half inch are possible with localized amounts exceeding one inch
with the strongest thunderstorms.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 11 am Thursday to 8 pm edt Friday for
lhz441-442.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Mr am
marine... ... .Mann
hydrology... .Mann
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 33 mi54 min SE 13 G 15 74°F 1015.9 hPa (-1.0)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi54 min ESE 18 G 20 76°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 47 mi54 min ESE 9.9 G 13 73°F 1014.7 hPa (-1.2)60°F
45165 48 mi34 min E 14 G 18 76°F 76°F3 ft66°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI10 mi61 minE 510.00 miFair72°F62°F71%1014.6 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI13 mi61 minE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F61°F71%1015 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI17 mi61 minENE 410.00 miFair69°F62°F78%1014.6 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI20 mi59 minESE 310.00 miFair73°F57°F60%1016.3 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI21 mi61 minSE 910.00 miFair71°F57°F63%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from YIP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4CalmNE5NE3CalmNE7N3E4E6E86SE7S7SE9S6SE6SE9SE8SE8SE8SE5E4E5E5
1 day agoCalmCalmSW4SW3CalmCalmN8CalmCalmNW3--36
G21
NW4N7N8N8NW7NW5N5E6CalmE3E3
2 days agoSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S5S5SE9S8SE10S9
G17
SE7S12S10S8S6SE6CalmS4S3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.