Saturday, March23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Plymouth, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 7:50PM Saturday March 23, 2019 12:20 PM EDT (16:20 UTC) Moonrise 10:07PMMoonset 8:20AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 Expires:201903150145;;390439 Fzus73 Kdtx 150100 Mwsdtx Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 900 Pm Edt Thu Mar 14 2019 Lcz422-423-460-lhz442-443-463-464-150145- /o.con.kdtx.ma.w.0001.000000t0000z-190315t0145z/ 900 Pm Edt Thu Mar 14 2019
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 945 pm edt... For the following areas... Detroit river... Harbor beach to port sanilac mi... Lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Lake huron from port sanilac to port huron 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion)... Port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... At 900 pm edt, strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 15 nm east of harbor beach to near lexington to 18 nm northwest of wyandotte, moving northeast at 40 knots. Hazard...wind gusts 34 knots or greater and small hail. Source...radar indicated. Impact...small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. Strong Thunderstorms will be near... Lexington and lakeport around 905 pm edt. St. Clair shores around 945 pm edt. Other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include richmondville. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes. && lat...lon 4292 8246 4262 8252 4254 8266 4237 8283 4232 8306 4215 8313 4214 8322 4233 8312 4239 8295 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4264 8256 4265 8255 4301 8247 4322 8256 4365 8263 4384 8228 4385 8218 4359 8212 time...mot...loc 0100z 234deg 38kt 4375 8231 4323 8251 4239 8350 hail...<.75in wind...>34kts
LCZ423


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plymouth, MI
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location: 42.37, -83.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 231132
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
732 am edt Sat mar 23 2019

Aviation
Differential 1000-500mb height rises will force the surface high
pressure ridge to build across southeast michigan today. An
extremely dry air mass coupled with strong static stability between
4.0 and 12.0 kft agl will ensure clear skies.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 417 am edt Sat mar 23 2019
discussion...

msas analyses this morning depict the center of a 1025mb surface
anticyclone anchored along the western shoreline of lake michigan.

The surface high is an artifact of upper level confluent flow and
high midlevel stability. While temporarily blocked, the surface
anticyclone will expand more aggressively into southeast michigan
today in response to differential 1000-500mb height rises as the
anomalous midlevel cold pool migrates eastward. The area is all but
assured of cloud free skies given the dewpoint depressions
throughout the entire column in the forecast soundings. With full
insolation, light westerly wind trajectory, and mixing heights that
are forecasted to reach approximately 3300 ft agl, wanted to go a
degree or two higher than MOS for MAX temperatures today. Forecasted
highs are expected to reach the upper 40s during the late afternoon.

Quiescent weather conditions tonight with surface ridging in place.

Virtually no gradient will result in a surface based inversion.

Given no tangible near surface moisture not expecting much of
an impact.

Vertically stacked low pressure disturbance will be in the process
of pushing eastward as a southern jet MAX develops a linkage to the
southern periphery of the cyclonic circulation. Current model data
suggests less organization and slower timing to the development of a
weak baroclinic zone immediately south of lower michigan on Sunday.

This results in a slight slowing of the impact to the passing wave
for Sunday evening. Differences exist with the system, primarily
with the likelihood and potential duration of low-midlevel
deformation. Meanwhile, models have been absolutely steadfast in
showing an inertially unstable setup that will result in a rapid
transition to anticyclonic flow trajectories over the great lakes
and a hyper aggressive backdoor cold front right out of canada.

Precipitation type will be dependent upon the timing of this
backdoor cold front. Earlier timing of the front will likely
suppress the frontal wave to the south and east, while optimal
timing of the low level cold air advection may result in a
changeover to snow and a minor accumulation before precipitation
ends. The ECMWF is the most bearish of solutions, and generally used
the output to direct timing of precipitation type. Otherwise, the
main edit to the forecast was to increase pops Sunday afternoon and
evening.

Aggressive surface high pressure will build into the great lakes
region for the beginning to middle of next week. Below normal
temperatures are anticipated both Monday and Tuesday.

Marine...

there will be a steady decrease in the winds and waves across the
lakes this morning into the afternoon as the gradient weakens with
high pressure expanding across the ohio valley. Winds will back
toward the southwest during the afternoon and there will be a modest
uptick in the speeds as a cold front advances into the northern
great lakes from the north Saturday night. This front will push
south across lake huron on Sunday and will be marked by a rapid wind
shift to the north-northeast. Strong high pressure forecast to
expand across northern ontario and low pressure traversing the ohio
valley will result in an increasing northeasterly gradient across
the area Sunday night and into Monday, with wind gusts possibly
reaching 30 knots on southern lake huron. This will likely result in
small craft advisory conditions on lake huron. Winds and waves will
then decrease Monday night into Tuesday as high pressure becomes
centered over the region.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 11 am edt this morning for lhz421-
441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Cb
marine... ... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 33 mi21 min NW 5.1 G 8 34°F 1026.4 hPa (+1.0)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi81 min W 6 G 8 30°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 47 mi33 min W 1.9 G 6 36°F 1026.7 hPa17°F
TWCO1 48 mi21 min WNW 6 G 7 33°F 1023.7 hPa (+1.2)22°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI10 mi28 minNW 710.00 miFair38°F16°F41%1026.6 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI13 mi28 minVar 410.00 miFair37°F15°F41%1026.8 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI17 mi28 minW 710.00 miFair37°F17°F44%1026.8 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI20 mi26 minWNW 510.00 miFair36°F9°F33%1026.4 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI21 mi28 minWSW 610.00 miFair34°F17°F50%1026.1 hPa

Wind History from YIP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN18
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G30
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NW12NW13NW10NW9NW11NW8NW8NW7NW6NW8NW7NW5NW8NW7NW6NW7
1 day agoN9NW6NW6NW7W12NW10NW9W8W7W7W15W9W6SW6SW5SW6SW5NW8NW10NW11NW15NW16
G21
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2 days agoSW12SW8SW10SE6SW7SE5SE6S10S6S8S11S10S8S6S4S3CalmCalmNW4NW3N4N7N10NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.