Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Plymouth, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:51AMSunset 5:03PM Monday December 10, 2018 3:12 AM EST (08:12 UTC) Moonrise 10:30AMMoonset 8:07PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0040.000000t0000z-181006t2345z/ 710 Pm Edt Sat Oct 6 2018
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4216 8321 4218 8313 4213 8312 4205 8315 4202 8314 4198 8315 4197 8318 4196 8328 time...mot...loc 2308z 250deg 36kt 4214 8305
LCZ423 Expires:201810062320;;348663 FZUS73 KDTX 062310 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 710 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2018 LCZ423-LEZ444-062320-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plymouth, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.37, -83.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 100440
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1140 pm est Sun dec 9 2018

Aviation
Steady southeastward expansion of low stratus underway early this
morning, encouraged by continued weak lake moisture flux and subtle
cold air advection beneath a strengthening nocturnal inversion in
modest w-nw flow. Extrapolating the movement downstream brings this
moisture into the detroit corridor 07z-08z. Stratus deck likely
holds firm well into Monday, given the existence of low level
thermal troughing at 925 mb. Combination of modest diurnal heating
and a gradually backing low level wind with time will work to scour
out this moisture late in the day. Predominant MVFR restrictions,
but with a low potential for CIGS to dip below 1000 ft particularly
ptk .

For dtw... Low stratus on pace to enter the terminal 07z-08z. Once
in place, stratus unlikely to budge until late in the day Monday.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for CIGS below 5kft through Monday afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 230 pm est Sun dec 9 2018
discussion...

a large area of high pressure will settle south of the region into
Monday. While quiet weather will continue around the periphery of
this high, low level moisture remains trapped under low level
inversion around 1500-2000 feet. Trends the past several days have
been for an expansion of stratus, enhanced by weak westerly flow
from lake michigan, into the area by night and a gradual erosion
during the daylight hours. See no reason why this cycle will not
continue given stratus trends over the region this afternoon, so
mainly clear skies into evening will probably trend back to partly
to mostly cloudy over the forecast area overnight and erode once
again during the day Monday.

Synoptically, the area remains largely positioned between the
northern and southern streams (however notably closer to the
northern stream). A strong northern stream shortwave will dig just
north and northeast of the region late Monday night into Tuesday.

Cloud cover should generally be more substantial on Tuesday as this
system brushes by the area, so the aforementioned diurnal cycle will
likely come to an end. While a passing flurry will also be possible,
a large majority of light precipitation associated with this wave
will remain well northeast of the area.

Temperatures will remain on the cool side during this time frame
with high temperatures in the lower mid 30s Monday Tuesday and low
temperatures oscillating between the upper teens to lower 20s
(variably positioned across the area given the hodgepodge of low
level cloud cover conditions at any given time.

A sharp ridge axis aloft will pass over the region on Wednesday as
surface high pressure moves off to the eastern great lakes.

Subsidence in the low to mid levels provides a chance at a good
amount of sunshine during the day, but high clouds ahead of the next
wave may dampen this prospect by the afternoon hours. Warm advection
in the wake of the ridge axis will help bump 850 mb temps to near or
slightly above 0 c, with resultant surface highs in the mid 30s.

Precip chances increase for the latter half of the week with a
pattern shift taking place. The first chance comes Wednesday night
into Thursday as a strong midlevel wave lifts through the region,
providing an opportunity for some light snow showers overnight. This
system still looks to be lacking in quality moisture content, so not
expecting significant accumulations or coverage. The better chance
for precip remains Friday into Saturday as a trough amplifies over
the central CONUS and leads to an expansive surface low developing
and potentially tracking into the region. The latest ECMWF solution
is keeping the more south track seen in the past few cycles and
largely misses our area, while the GFS and canadian show a
trajectory into the eastern great lakes which gives the chance for
some precipitation here. Mild air wrapping around this system points
to a mostly rain solution rather than snow. Ridging will move back
in after the low departs, giving the second half of next weekend a
better chance at dry weather.

Marine...

wind will ease this evening as the gradient weakens. High pressure
will continue to build across the region through the early week
bringing dry weather and lighter W to SW winds with gusts of 15-20
knots or less. Winds pick back up out of SE around 25 kts by mid
week ahead of a low pressure system moving out of the central plains
and through the great lakes.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Dg tf
marine... ... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 33 mi72 min WNW 1.9 G 5.1 24°F 1024 hPa (-0.7)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 41 mi72 min NW 9.9 G 12 27°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 47 mi42 min WNW 2.9 G 4.1 22°F 1024.1 hPa18°F
TWCO1 48 mi22 min NNW 11 G 14 29°F 1021.3 hPa24°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last
24hr
SE1
--
--
N3
NW2
NW2
N1
N3
NE2
SE2
NE2
SE1
NE3
NW5
G9
NW3
NW3
NW4
N2
N2
NW2
NW3
NW4
NW3
NW3
1 day
ago
NW6
G9
NW3
NW3
NW3
W3
W2
NW4
G7
N3
G9
NW1
SW4
W3
G6
W4
W4
G7
W4
SW2
W3
S2
SW4
S3
S2
S4
SW2
--
--
2 days
ago
W5
W6
G9
W5
W4
W6
W3
W4
W7
SW6
G9
SW8
G12
SW5
G9
SW7
G11
W8
G12
W6
G9
W7
G11
W8
W10
G14
W8
G12
W6
NW11
G15
NW13
G18
NW15
G21
NW7
G11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI10 mi19 minNNW 76.00 miA Few Clouds with Haze24°F19°F81%1024.8 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI13 mi19 minWNW 43.00 miA Few Clouds with Haze22°F17°F82%1024.9 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI17 mi19 minNNW 67.00 miOvercast24°F21°F88%1024.9 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI20 mi17 minNW 57.00 miFair24°F20°F84%1024.4 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI21 mi19 minNNW 78.00 miOvercast24°F19°F84%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from YIP (wind in knots)
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4NW344W5W6W6NW7NW4NW5N5CalmCalmNW4NW7NW8NW7
1 day agoNW7NW10NW8W4W5W6NW10NW9NW6W6SW6S6W7SW6S3S4CalmS3S7S6CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW6W4SW5W6W4W3SW5SW4--SW13SW8SW10SW13SW11SW10W13
G20
W17W10W11W13NW17NW16NW15NW7

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (3,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.