Marine Weather and Tides
7/21/2018 Trying to make page Mobile Friendly
|Sunrise 7:16AM||Sunset 7:38PM||Tuesday September 18, 2018 4:57 PM EDT (20:57 UTC)||Moonrise 3:16PM||Moonset 12:01AM||Illumination 64%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Plymouth, MIHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus63 kdtx 181948|
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
348 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018
Zonal flow across the CONUS will continue into Wednesday as the next
storm system moves ashore the pacific coast. The deepening trough
will act to strengthen the ridge sprawled across the southern
states, leading to increasing heights over mi on Wednesday. Lee
cyclogenesis ahead of the trough will result in a large surface low
which will be the cause of potential showers and thunderstorms
through the end of the week.
Chances of storms this afternoon will be contained to the far south
as a weakening cold front drops through lower mi. Surface flow is
weak and the cap shown by model soundings this morning seems to be
holding thus far as even the CU field was slow to build today. Some
isolated cells have developed over SW lower which are tracking SE in
the northwesterly flow around the southern ridge. Convectively
induced shortwave upstream will track across the area tonight but
hires continues to show little activity over SE mi.
With the cold front stalling south of the state, and the shortwave
exiting the region by morning, it appears that most of Wednesday
will turn out to be dry. We remain in northwesterly flow with
building mid level heights and the jet forced north over lake
superior. Cooler air and northerly winds behind the front will keep
the area briefly lowered in the 70s. Left some low pops across the
far NW as elevated frontal activity may brush mid mi.
Best chance of precipitation will come Wednesday night into Thursday
morning as low pressure gathering over the foothills starts to
release across the plains. The stall front to our south will lift
back north as a warm front. Flow returns to southwesterly advecting
plume of moisture back into the state as low level jet ramps up.
Increasing fgen, moisture advection, and shortwave energy should
produce an e-w band of showers across lower mi that will lift
northward. Question is how far north does it set up? Went with
likely pops across the north and chance farther south at the moment.
Good CAPE around 500 j kg and adequate shear around 30 knots will
make severe weather a possibility along the warm front.
The low will lift through northern mi late Thursday and Thursday
night pull the front north leaving us solidly in the warm sector.
Precip chances will decrease through the afternoon and evening as
conditions become less favorable deeper in the warm sector. After
temperatures briefly cool off Wednesday, strong WAA will allow them
to spike once again into the mid upper 80s.
Vigorous upper level trough moving into the western great lakes on
Friday with deepening low pressure tracking through northeastern
ontario early Friday morning, driving cold front through southeast
michigan. The front looks to clear the state around 18z Friday.
Timing will be critical to severe chances, as the 12z euro
indicating mlcapes of 500-1000 j kg. Very strong wind field will
present a wind threat, even with the early afternoon timing, as 850
mb knots of 50 knots are present. Even without convection along the
front, post frontal cold advection wind pop will significant, and
wind gusts of 35 to 40 mph late in the day appear likely.
Expansive high pressure will follow for the weekend, providing
pleasant and dry weather, along with slightly below normal
temperatures. The dry air and surface ridge is expected to hold on
Monday, but the 500 mb low coming out of the southern plains will
lift north and have to be watched, potentially sending a warm front
and showers into southern great lakes (see 12z euro). Timing and
interaction with the digging upper level trough over the rockies
remains uncertain this far out.
A weak cold front moved through lake huron during the day with
little impact outside of light enhancement of northerly wind. The
front will settle south of lake erie tonight and stall there through
Wednesday leaving light easterly wind over all marine areas.
Favorable conditions begin to worsen Wednesday night into Thursday|
as the stalled front moves northward and as thunderstorm activity
increases considerably. An increasing wind component also occurs as
low pressure organizes over the plains states and strengthens over
the northern great lakes. Much warmer air surging northward across
lower michigan and lake huron increases stability as a limiting
factor for wind over the lake but southwest gusts near 30 knots
still look reachable Thursday night into Friday just on the strength
of gradient flow.
Once the low crosses the northern great lakes and continues into
ontario early Friday morning, it pulls the associated cold front
through the central great lakes. The front will bring a SW to nw
wind shift with considerably colder air reversing the thermal
profile to an unstable configuration. The strength of the low could
support a wind field capable of gusts to near gale force over the
open waters of lake huron Friday into Friday night. High pressure
then brings more tranquil conditions during the weekend.
Showers and thunderstorms will become more active Wednesday night
and Thursday with locally heavy rainfall possible. This occurs as
the cold front, moving southward through the area today, moves back
north as a warm front and increases strength while low pressure
approaches from the midwest. The warmer and more humid air moving in
with the front supplies enough moisture for rainfall totals
averaging 0.25 to 0.5 inch from Wednesday evening through Thursday
morning. Totals at the higher end of the range are more likely
across the tri cities and northern thumb where localized rainfall
near 1 inch will also be possible. The potential for flooding is
minimal with this activity, limited to ponding of water on roads and
minor flooding of poor drainage areas.
Issued at 107 pm edt Tue sep 18 2018
a weak cold front settling through southern lower michigan is the
focus of aviation conditions for the rest of today through
Wednesday, first for shower storm potential and then for clouds. An
isolated shower or thunderstorm remains possible along and south of
the boundary during peak heating today, however the late afternoon
to early evening timing places the target area mainly south of the
terminal locations and then with a SE motion away from the area.
Temperature north of the front is cooler but still on the humid side
which supported MVFR stratus in the mbs area and points northward
into the afternoon. This boundary layer moisture will be augmented
by light north to northeast wind off lake huron through tonight, a
combination that likely results in MVFR stratus reforming during the
night and then continuing through Wednesday morning. The front
stalling near ohio border could support stratus development over the
dtw corridor as well. Using today as a guide, MVFR ceiling is
expected to hold through Wednesday morning and then mix or lift into
vfr during the afternoon.
For dtw... Light SW wind shifts to light NE during the evening
traffic push but with speed only around 5 knots which could allow
continuation SW traffic flow operations. A mix of lowerVFR MVFR
ceiling is then expected overnight through Wednesday morning.
Dtw threshold probabilities...
* medium for ceiling 5000 ft or less overnight through Wednesday
Dtx watches warnings advisories
Lake huron... None.
Lake st clair... None.
Michigan waters of lake erie... None.
Discussion... Drk sf
marine... ... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI||33 mi||57 min||ENE 7 G 7||76°F||1012.2 hPa (-1.3)|
|THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH||41 mi||57 min||S 7 G 7||83°F|
|45147 - Lake St Clair||43 mi||57 min||ENE 1.9 G 3.9||76°F||74°F||1011.3 hPa (-1.2)|
|THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH||47 mi||39 min||W 7 G 14||89°F||1011.6 hPa||64°F|
|45165||48 mi||27 min||W 5.8 G 5.8||84°F||80°F||69°F|
Wind History for Toledo, OH(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI||10 mi||64 min||NW 10||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||88°F||68°F||52%||1011.1 hPa|
|Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI||13 mi||64 min||NW 7||10.00 mi||Light Rain||87°F||66°F||50%||1011 hPa|
|Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI||17 mi||64 min||W 12||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||88°F||66°F||50%||1011.3 hPa|
|Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI||20 mi||62 min||NNW 6||10.00 mi||Partly Cloudy||89°F||63°F||42%||1012.5 hPa|
|Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI||21 mi||64 min||NNW 9||10.00 mi||A Few Clouds||84°F||64°F||51%||1011.5 hPa|
Wind History from YIP (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||SE||SE||SE||SE||SE||E||SE||N||Calm||N||Calm||N||NE||Calm||Calm||Calm||NE||Calm||N||SE||SE||E||E|
|2 days ago||SE||SE||SE||S||Calm||Calm||NE||NE||NE||NE||N||N||N||NE||NE||N||NE||NE||E||E||SE||SE||SE|
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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