Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Plymouth, MI
May 15, 2024 3:55 PM EDT (19:55 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:10 AM Sunset 8:50 PM Moonrise 12:04 PM Moonset 1:53 AM |
LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
&&
lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
&&
lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347
LCZ400
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 151749 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 149 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Few lingering light showers south of I-94 this morning. Otherwise dry weather returns as clouds gradually clear north to south today.
- Scattered to numerous showers and possible embedded thunderstorms return Thursday night and Friday.
- Active pattern holds this weekend into the beginning of next week with warmer temperatures and shower/storm chances most days.
AVIATION
Split upper level flow will bring a period of shortwave ridging across Southeast Michigan the remainder of today and tonight.
Easterly wind trajectories will be in place in response to strong surface high pressure in northern Canada. Boundary layer cloud and saturation is forecasted to push toward the taf sites after 07Z tonight, then persist and lift by midday Thursday. MVFR ceiling heights are possible Thursday morning.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less early after 09Z Thursday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
DISCUSSION...
Surface low pressure and parent mid-level trough remain over the Ohio Valley today before shortwave energy shifts east to reorganize into a mid-Atlantic coastal low. Locally, the slow departure supports continued a low chance (~15-25%) for scattered showers over areas along/south of I-94- greatest potential focused over Lenawee/Monroe counties. For the rest of the CWA, dry air advection amidst NE flow lends to a gradual though steady north-to-south clearing of cloud cover with areas north of I-96/I-696 likely experiencing mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies by late this afternoon (sunniest north). Seasonably average day for inland areas today as high top out in the low to mid 70s. Areas down wind of Lake Huron, ie Tri-Cities/Thumb, hold cooler in the 60s with areas closest to the shoreline likely struggling to get out of the 50s.
Mid-level ridging in advance of another mid-upper trough ejecting out of the Rockies slides across the central Great Lakes Thursday.
Pleasant day as winds shift to the southeast in response allowing most areas to see temperatures reach the mid 70s even with increasing clouds through the day. These clouds mark the lead edge of height falls tied to the aforementioned Rockies trough that will fully expand over southern lower MI Thursday night and Friday.
Weakening surface low pressure lifting through the upper Midwest sends a washing out cold front toward the region supporting shower chances overnight into Friday morning. Thunder chances are low but non-zero as mid-range solutions advertise a few hundred J/kg of elevated instability attempting to creep into the state. Mid-level trough settles over the Great Lakes daytime Friday providing upper level support for afternoon shower and thunderstorm redevelopment.
Muddled pattern going into this weekend as separate northern and southern stream waves traverse the central CONUS. Southern stream wave tracks through the Ohio/Tennessee valleys Saturday maintaining weak mid-level troughing over the southern Great Lakes. This offers a shot for diurnal pop-up showers/storms Saturday afternoon with long range models suggesting a few to several hundred J/kg of MLCAPE to develop during peak heating. Northern stream wave flattens the western ridge and largely prevents its significantly warmer airmass over the Southwest/Plains from reaching into the Great Lakes as the trough's associated weak cold front is instead driven through the Great Lakes Sunday. Weak frontal forcing and lack of upper support with the parent shortwave/PV residing over the northern Great Lakes looks to limit precip chances locally with northern areas having the best shot at seeing rain. Near zonal northern jet is then progged to set up for the early week period allowing a series of shortwaves to track into the central Great Lakes maintaining our more active recent pattern.
MARINE...
Low pressure lingers over the Ohio Valley today supporting continued shower chances over Lake Erie, at least for the first half of the day. Modest gradient and sunnier skies in the north promote better mixing supporting an uptick in northeast flow into the Thumb nearshore waters this afternoon. This is especially true for the Saginaw Bay as favorable wind direction funneling down the bay is expected to support gusts between 25-30kts. Small Craft Advisories are in effect today for the all the Bay as a result as well as the Port Sanilac-Port Huron nearshore zone due to higher wave action.
High pressure then briefing slides across the region Thursday bringing favorable marine conditions. Active pattern with showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms return Thursday night into Friday as weakening low pressure lifts in the upper Midwest.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ443.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 149 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Few lingering light showers south of I-94 this morning. Otherwise dry weather returns as clouds gradually clear north to south today.
- Scattered to numerous showers and possible embedded thunderstorms return Thursday night and Friday.
- Active pattern holds this weekend into the beginning of next week with warmer temperatures and shower/storm chances most days.
AVIATION
Split upper level flow will bring a period of shortwave ridging across Southeast Michigan the remainder of today and tonight.
Easterly wind trajectories will be in place in response to strong surface high pressure in northern Canada. Boundary layer cloud and saturation is forecasted to push toward the taf sites after 07Z tonight, then persist and lift by midday Thursday. MVFR ceiling heights are possible Thursday morning.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less early after 09Z Thursday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 336 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024
DISCUSSION...
Surface low pressure and parent mid-level trough remain over the Ohio Valley today before shortwave energy shifts east to reorganize into a mid-Atlantic coastal low. Locally, the slow departure supports continued a low chance (~15-25%) for scattered showers over areas along/south of I-94- greatest potential focused over Lenawee/Monroe counties. For the rest of the CWA, dry air advection amidst NE flow lends to a gradual though steady north-to-south clearing of cloud cover with areas north of I-96/I-696 likely experiencing mostly sunny-partly cloudy skies by late this afternoon (sunniest north). Seasonably average day for inland areas today as high top out in the low to mid 70s. Areas down wind of Lake Huron, ie Tri-Cities/Thumb, hold cooler in the 60s with areas closest to the shoreline likely struggling to get out of the 50s.
Mid-level ridging in advance of another mid-upper trough ejecting out of the Rockies slides across the central Great Lakes Thursday.
Pleasant day as winds shift to the southeast in response allowing most areas to see temperatures reach the mid 70s even with increasing clouds through the day. These clouds mark the lead edge of height falls tied to the aforementioned Rockies trough that will fully expand over southern lower MI Thursday night and Friday.
Weakening surface low pressure lifting through the upper Midwest sends a washing out cold front toward the region supporting shower chances overnight into Friday morning. Thunder chances are low but non-zero as mid-range solutions advertise a few hundred J/kg of elevated instability attempting to creep into the state. Mid-level trough settles over the Great Lakes daytime Friday providing upper level support for afternoon shower and thunderstorm redevelopment.
Muddled pattern going into this weekend as separate northern and southern stream waves traverse the central CONUS. Southern stream wave tracks through the Ohio/Tennessee valleys Saturday maintaining weak mid-level troughing over the southern Great Lakes. This offers a shot for diurnal pop-up showers/storms Saturday afternoon with long range models suggesting a few to several hundred J/kg of MLCAPE to develop during peak heating. Northern stream wave flattens the western ridge and largely prevents its significantly warmer airmass over the Southwest/Plains from reaching into the Great Lakes as the trough's associated weak cold front is instead driven through the Great Lakes Sunday. Weak frontal forcing and lack of upper support with the parent shortwave/PV residing over the northern Great Lakes looks to limit precip chances locally with northern areas having the best shot at seeing rain. Near zonal northern jet is then progged to set up for the early week period allowing a series of shortwaves to track into the central Great Lakes maintaining our more active recent pattern.
MARINE...
Low pressure lingers over the Ohio Valley today supporting continued shower chances over Lake Erie, at least for the first half of the day. Modest gradient and sunnier skies in the north promote better mixing supporting an uptick in northeast flow into the Thumb nearshore waters this afternoon. This is especially true for the Saginaw Bay as favorable wind direction funneling down the bay is expected to support gusts between 25-30kts. Small Craft Advisories are in effect today for the all the Bay as a result as well as the Port Sanilac-Port Huron nearshore zone due to higher wave action.
High pressure then briefing slides across the region Thursday bringing favorable marine conditions. Active pattern with showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms return Thursday night into Friday as weakening low pressure lifts in the upper Midwest.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ443.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI | 33 mi | 55 min | NE 9.9G | 64°F | 29.83 | |||
| THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH | 41 mi | 55 min | NNW 1G | 64°F | 29.80 | 55°F | ||
| THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH | 47 mi | 55 min | ENE 7G | 64°F | 29.77 | 55°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KYIP WILLOW RUN,MI | 9 sm | 62 min | ENE 05 | 5 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Haze | 73°F | 54°F | 50% | 29.81 |
| KDTW DETROIT METROPOLITAN WAYNE COUNTY,MI | 13 sm | 62 min | NE 06 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 72°F | 55°F | 57% | 29.81 | |
| KARB ANN ARBOR MUNI,MI | 17 sm | 62 min | NNE 11 | 10 sm | Overcast | 72°F | 54°F | 53% | 29.81 | |
| KVLL OAKLAND/TROY,MI | 20 sm | 20 min | NE 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 50°F | 44% | 29.83 | |
| KPTK OAKLAND COUNTY INTL,MI | 21 sm | 62 min | NNE 11 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 72°F | 48°F | 43% | 29.82 |
Detroit, MI,
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