Thursday, June29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waukegan, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:33PM Thursday June 29, 2017 10:50 AM CDT (15:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:36AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 30% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 950 Am Cdt Thu Jun 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm cdt this afternoon...
Rest of today..Southwest 20 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 20 kt late this afternoon. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Numerous showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then scattered showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less after midnight.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 ft or less.
Friday night..West winds 10 to 15 kt. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Chance of showers through the night. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ740 Expires:201706292115;;005742 FZUS53 KLOT 291450 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 950 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-292115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waukegan, IL
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location: 42.37, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 291200
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
700 am cdt Thu jun 29 2017

Short term
330 am cdt
through tonight...

main concerns are the risk for strong to severe thunderstorms,
torrential downpours and at least localized flooding later this
afternoon into this evening. In addition, a likely lull in
thunderstorms through at least the early afternoon will enable
very warm temperatures, along with dewpoints near around 70,
yielding heat index values in the lower to mid 90s. The boundary
layer warming and rich moisture will also enable destabilization
to maximize as a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates returns to
the area from the plains.

A deep surface low over southwest lake superior will slowly
progress east across the northern great lakes region today, with
its trailing cold front inching toward the area but likely
remaining to the northwest. The remnant outflow from last night's
storms will likely wash out and not play a role in trends later
today. This will keep warm and humid southwest flow in place,
with gusts in the 20-25 mph range. Forecast soundings indicate
that the atmosphere will become uncapped and strongly by mid
afternoon with 2000 to 3500 j kg of mlcape, so cannot rule out
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
early-mid afternoon. However, the primary impetus for more
widespread convection looks to be an upper level disturbance
currently across the central high plains. The timing of this wave
looks to be from the late afternoon through the evening.

Westerly deep layer shear of 30-35 kt and the strong instability
will certainly be supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms,
with primary risks for damaging winds and hail. The low-level jet
strength will not be what it was on Wednesday, but with high
instability and rich moisture high low level cape, cannot rule out
a very isolated tornado. If an organized line of thunderstorms
can form as has been shown on some overnight cam guidance, the
main risk will be strong to severe wind gusts. A corridor of high
pwat up to or in excess of 1.75" near i-88 to south of i-80 will
also make for very efficient rain producers once again. Considered
idea of issuing another flash flood watch given the excessive rain
across far northern illinois on Wednesday evening, but with
potential for rainfall axis to be a bit south and overall
uncertainty, opted to allow day shift to assess trends.

After the probable evening round of thunderstorms, it's uncertain
whether atmosphere will be supportive of additional activity
overnight tonight, so kept pops in chance range. If most of the
thunderstorm activity can clear out, the approach of a surface low
from the southwest and diminishing winds may even be supportive of
some patchy fog, but have not added it to the grids yet.

Castro

Long term
311 am cdt
Friday through Wednesday...

the current period of active weather will start to lull at some
point Friday but it is not clear how quickly this will occur.

Surface low pressure will be tracking over the region in advance of
a broad upper trough building into the region. A cool frontal
boundary will also be approaching from the northwest. Guidance shows
a range of possibilities but eastern and southern areas would likely
be favored for a period of convection beyond what may be occurring
first thing in the morning. The speed of the front and the upper
trough will be the determining factor. Will carry highest pops in
the morning and continue low pops for the southeast into the
afternoon, with lowest pops north. Highs will be cooler than today
but dewpoints do not drop off much so it will still be humid. The
main upper trough axis swings by Friday night and may be enough to
generate a few showers. The area will be under northwest upper flow
for Saturday and 850 mb temps will cool several degrees which should
translate into highs a few degrees cooler than Friday. The pattern
will be favorable for the passage of weak waves in the mean flow
bringing a minimal chance for some isolated scattered show
development depending on where any wave would track. Expect a
primarily dry day though.

High pressure crosses the area Sunday morning but the northwest
upper flow will persist with a decent signal for a weak surface low
to bring another frontal boundary into the area later in the day.

This will lead to another chance for showers thunderstorms. This
front may end up getting hung up over or just south of the forecast
area into Monday. Upper ridging builds eastward into the northern
plains Monday and the upper mississippi river valley Tuesday with an
upper trough forecast to split off over the central plains. Surface
low pressure would develop to the southwest and the location of the
front will be key in determining how active the weather becomes
locally. Do not have much confidence in how things play out for
Monday or Tuesday but it will certainly bear watching as
thunderstorm activity may be over the area or end up to the south.

Mdb

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

main concern is again tsra potential, which appears to have a most
likely focus of later today through the evening based off guidance
trends. A surface low will slowly progress east across the
northern great lakes region, with its trailing cold front inching
toward the area but likely remaining to the northwest. This will
keep warm and humid southwest flow in place, with gusts in the
20-25 kt range. Forecast soundings indicate that the atmosphere
will be uncapped by the afternoon, so cannot rule out isolated to
widely scattered shra tsra in the early-mid afternoon.

However, the primary impetus for more widespread convection looks
to be an upper level disturbance currently across the central
plains. The timing of this wave looks to be from the late
afternoon near the ms river and progressing eastward through the
evening. Confidence is medium-high in the tempo tsra groups at
the TAF sites, and medium in timing. If an organized line of tsra
can form, the time window for tsra will likely be shorter, along
with a greater risk for strong to severe wind gusts.

After the probable evening round of tsra, it's uncertain whether
atmosphere will be supportive of additional activity overnight
tonight through Friday morning. A surface low nearing the area
and lighter winds could also result be supportive of cig and vsby
reductions from the late evening through the overnight.

Castro

Marine
311 am cdt
low pressure over western lake superior will track eastward to east-
central ontario into this evening. Gusty south to southwest winds
this morning will ease allowing waves to subside through the day.

Small craft advisory conditions will subside through the morning
as well. This same low will drag a frontal boundary across the
lake which will likely stall out as another trough of low pressure
moves along the front into Friday morning. The front is expected
to push south of the lake later Friday with high pressure
gradually building in by Sunday morning. Another low pressure
system will track north of lake michigan later Sunday bringing
another frontal boundary southward down the lake into Monday.

Mdb

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Nearshore waters
until 1 pm Thursday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 1 mi71 min WSW 18 G 24 72°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi51 min WSW 16 G 22 74°F 1007.1 hPa (+0.3)
45174 18 mi31 min SW 12 G 18 71°F 62°F2 ft62°F
FSTI2 28 mi111 min WSW 23 75°F
OKSI2 33 mi111 min W 2.9 77°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 34 mi51 min WSW 12 G 14 74°F 62°F
45177 34 mi171 min 64°F
CNII2 37 mi36 min 75°F
JAKI2 42 mi111 min W 13 76°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 46 mi61 min SW 14 G 16 65°F 60°F2 ft1007 hPa (+0.5)60°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 46 mi51 min SW 9.9 G 17 76°F 1008.6 hPa (+0.4)62°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 47 mi41 min W 11 G 14 74°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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G20
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NE7
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G8

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi56 minWSW 10 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy74°F64°F74%1006.4 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI17 mi58 minW 15 G 2210.00 miFair75°F64°F71%1006.9 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi59 minSW 11 G 2010.00 miA Few Clouds75°F64°F71%1008.3 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS10S18
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S9CalmS14S19
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S14W12
G23
SW7S6SE7S8S9E8S5SW5SW7SW12----SW10
G16
1 day ago65NW10NW7W4SE10SE9SE10SE9SE6SE6S8CalmSW6SW4S4S6S9S7S5S10S10S13S15
2 days agoW8W10W8
G18
NW12
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NW7
G22
N10
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G16
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NW4W3CalmW3W33Calm3W3Calm3W3NW5NW55

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.