Monday, March25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waukegan, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:44AMSunset 7:10PM Monday March 25, 2019 5:03 AM CDT (10:03 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:48AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 327 Am Cdt Mon Mar 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..North winds to 30 kt, easing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft in the afternoon.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast after midnight. Clear. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft late.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 15 kt. Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 kt becoming south 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ740 Expires:201903251515;;886192 FZUS53 KLOT 250827 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 327 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-251515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waukegan, IL
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location: 42.37, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 250951
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
451 am cdt Mon mar 25 2019

Short term
315 am cdt
through Tuesday...

while sunshine will be a plenty today, a stiff northeast wind will
keep temperatures on the cool side. The cold front has already
reached the area, and now the tighter pressure gradient will shift
through NE illinois and NW indiana this morning. Gusts to 30 mph
will be common before tailing off a bit this afternoon. Highs
today will reach the mid 30s lakeside, around 40 in the suburbs,
and the mid 40s well inland.

Winds slacken even more tonight as high pressure across the upper
midwest will shift to the western great lakes tonight. The main
question for tonight will be how cold it will get. Keep in mind
normal lows for late march encroach on the freezing mark. Areas
along and west of the fox river valley stand the best chance of
decoupling, and other than some passing cirrus skies will be
largely cloud free. Will not be surprised to see a few teens for
lows in these areas, with 20s expected elsewhere.

Tuesday... High pressure overhead in the spring suggests lake
breeze development and some inland progress. Also expect some
passing cirrus from a benign disturbance in northwest flow aloft.

Readings inland will still remain shy of normal.

Kmd

Long term
337 am cdt
Tuesday night through Sunday...

the main forecast concern is with a potentially significant
rainfall event late this week, during the Thursday night-Saturday
timeframe. Considering that there are still points along area
rivers in flood, and soil moisture remains elevated, any
substantial rainfall, will quickly runoff into rivers and cause
rises. Though it's still about 5 days out until possible impacts,
with the heightened hydro concern over the region, will be
highlighting this period with an esf and in the hwo.

First off, thankfully the quiet stretch that starts today will
continue through Wednesday evening. Tuesday night, while high
pressure only slowly exits eastward, light winds and clear skies
will support another chilly night in the 20s outside of chicago,
though not quite as cold as tonight. Wednesday will be the nicest
day of the week on the backside of the high pressure, with height
rises and warm advection contributing to mild afternoon
temperatures. Low dew points and plenty of Sun for most of the day
along with southerly winds gusting to 25-30 mph will yield highs
in the mid to upper 50s, with a few 60 degree readings possible.

Changes already start to occur Wednesday night. Gusty southwest
winds ahead of a cold front trailing from low pressure over canada
will continue, keeping temps mild in 45-50 range. Mid-level flow
will turn westerly, with some lead short-wave energy possibly
enough to allow for isolated to widely scattered shower
development into Thursday morning. Mid-level lapse rates will be
quite steep during this time, so if any shower can tap into
available mucape, can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm.

Thursday as mentioned will be off to a mild start ahead of cold
front. With highs likely at least in the lower 60s area wide.

This front will slip through during the afternoon and likely act
as a backdoor pneumonia type front, flipping winds to north-
northeast and quick cooling spreading inland from the lake.

Isolated to widely scattered showers are possible with the front,
and kept a slight isolated thunder chance going.

Turning to the primary timeframe of concern, Thursday night
through Saturday. Models and ensembles are in good agreement on
the large scale pattern. This will feature Thursday's cold front
stalling over or south of the southern CWA as a quasi-stationary
boundary. Multiple lead waves from western plains troughing will
eject out in steady state west-southwest flow aloft. Wide open
southwest trajectories from the gulf will transport near end of
march maxes pwats of up to 1.25" into the region with this moist
air mass locking in place. With the S W energy interacting with
aforementioned pattern, a few bouts of moderate to heavy rainfall
are probable, Thursday night into early Friday and Friday
afternoon evening into Saturday. Ensemble means are in good
agreement in swath of 1-1.5" total precip, with operational models
indicating 1-2"+ amounts. Pattern recognition suggests that
total rainfall amounts of near or over 2.5" are possible somewhere
in the region. One saving grace may be that thunderstorms don't
currently appear all that likely, with instability axis off to the
south southwest.

The full western plains trough will likely eject out Friday night
into Saturday and exit Saturday night, finally ending precip
chances. Temperatures will be at least 10 degrees cooler Friday
north of the stationary boundary and possibly in the 30s lakeside
all day. Still can't rule out a mix or change to wet snow sometime
toward the tail end of the precip (Friday night through Saturday)
for portions of northern illinois, though plenty of uncertainty
in this regard. Saturday will be windy and cold with highs likely
in the 30s north of i-80 at least and northeast winds gusting to
30-35 mph as canadian high pressure spreads toward the region.

Sunday will be much quieter but unseasonably chilly for the last
day of march. The main message is to stay tuned for forecast
updates throughout the week, including river forecasts for those
who live near rivers. For additional details, see the hydrology
section below.

Castro

Hydrology
450 am cdt
a front will stall over the region late in the week, which will
result in a couple bouts of moderate to heavy rainfall from
Thursday night through Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms are also
possible. Significant rainfall totals of one inch to in excess of
two inches are possible. Despite it being about five days from the
start of this potential event, model guidance is in very good
agreement on area wide rainfall totals of at least one inch. Given
that the air mass over the region will be unseasonably moist and
supportive of efficient rainfall rates, pattern recognition of
past similar heavy rainfall setups suggest that event totals of
2.5" or higher will be possible in spots.

It's too early to be able to pinpoint specifics for which areas
will receive the highest rainfall totals, but even the ensemble
baseline of 1"+ is concerning for renewed sharp river and stream
rises and lowland flooding. This includes the most impacted
basins the past few weeks, the rock, pecatonica and fox, with
moderate flooding still ongoing along portions of these rivers.

Soil moisture remains above normal for late march, so increased
runoff will be a concern with respect to river flooding area wide.

An esf hydrologic outlook has been issued to highlight the
concerns for this potentially significant rainfall event.

Castro

Aviation
For the 06z tafs...

other then a few hours of patchy drizzle, the tafs will be
precipitation free for the next few days. The main concern will be
gusty northeast winds which will pick up overnight into Monday
morning. The cold front has already reached the terminals, but the
main pressure rises are still to come, thus the occasional gusts
into the mid 20s may become a bit more common this morning.

MVFR conditions will remain confined south of the chicago
terminals, with the lowerVFR cloud deck expected to scatter out
toward daybreak. High pressure across the upper midwest will shift
to the western great lakes tonight. Skies will be mostly clear,
and winds will slacken inland, though they will maintain an
onshore component at ord mdw.

Kmd

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Lakeshore flood advisory... Ilz006-ilz014 until 1 pm Monday.

In... Lakeshore flood advisory... Inz001 until 1 pm Monday.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Nearshore waters
until 4 am Tuesday.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi63 min NNE 25 G 29 34°F 1022.7 hPa (+0.7)
FSTI2 28 mi123 min N 36 36°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 34 mi33 min NNE 24 G 27 37°F 32°F
JAKI2 42 mi123 min N 20 G 27 37°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 46 mi33 min 36°F 1020.1 hPa34°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 47 mi23 min 32°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi68 minNNE 13 G 2710.00 miMostly Cloudy33°F26°F75%1023.1 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI17 mi70 minNNE 14 G 2210.00 miFair33°F27°F78%1023.5 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi71 minNNE 13 G 2410.00 miOvercast35°F28°F76%1023.1 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmS4SE4CalmCalmCalmN13
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1 day agoW4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3SW6S7SE9SE10SE9SE9SE10SE8SE6CalmCalmS3------CalmCalmCalm
2 days ago--N6NW5NW5N5N10
G16
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G18
NE11NE9NE5NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.