Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Waukegan, IL

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:54PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 3:57 PM CDT (20:57 UTC) Moonrise 4:17PMMoonset 1:09AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 931 Am Cdt Wed Sep 19 2018
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southeast after midnight. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Thursday night..Southwest winds to 30 kt. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
LMZ740 Expires:201809192100;;884739 FZUS53 KLOT 191431 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 931 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-192100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Waukegan, IL
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location: 42.37, -87.8     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 192046
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
346 pm cdt Wed sep 19 2018

Short term
313 pm cdt
through this evening...

main forecast concerns challenges are with shower thunderstorm
trends this afternoon into this evening, and once again later
tonight into Thursday morning.

Latest radar trends showing the precip shield which has been
approaching the CWA today now in place across north central il,
along and west of i-39. This area of precip will likely continue
to push further east over the next several hours, but likely
staying similar with coverage and intensity. Thunder has remained
limited with this precip, though isolated thunder will still
likely remain possible as it moves into remaining areas in
northern il, along north of i-88, this afternoon.

A boundary situated across the southern portions of the CWA in
east central il in is providing widely varying conditions over the
area, with conditions south of the boundary now quite unstable.

Will need to keep an eye on this location for possible isolated
thunderstorm development this afternoon into the evening for a
couple of reasons. First, satellite trends have shown expanding cu
development along south of the kankakee river valley. Steep low
level lapse rates now in place, with latest rap analysis showing
sb instability and limited cin. Current precip trends just to the
south could easily affect the southern cwa, and have kept slight
chance pops for this afternoon. Not overly confident with how
intense any storms could get, but can't rule out an isolated
stronger storm. Second, additional storm development over east and
southeast ia is slowly diminishing while moving east southeast.

However, it will be reaching this more unstable area here in the
near term, and it's quite possible for it to continue following
the instability southeast. If this were to occur, once again,
locations south of the kankakee river valley would have the
highest chances. The threat for an isolated stronger storm would
also be possible with this area of precip. Precip chances are then
expected to lower by evening, with dry conditions generally
expected this evening before chances increase once again late
tonight.

Rodriguez

Long term
344 pm cdt
late tonight through Wednesday...

most guidance in general agreement with returning precip chances
across the region late tonight into Thursday morning, though there
still is some lower confidence with exact placement of this
development. Have maintained similar trends thoughts in the
forecast for this period, with scattered thunderstorm development
expected mainly along and north of i-88, with the highest chances
still remaining just to the north. This will be in response to the
now lifting boundary, while the LLJ increases across the region.

As this occurs late tonight, should see initial isolated
development become more scattered into early Thursday morning.

With increasing instability, a strong to severe threat will be in
place. Instability will likely be elevated during this time, with
mainly a hail threat expected. Any development should lift further
north with time during late morning and midday, but will continue
to monitor additional isolated development area wide during this
time. With the expected trend north with this development, have
left high temps alone for tomorrow with low 90s expected. If
additional development occurs through midday, then temps could be
lower than forecast. On the opposite side, if precip does not
develop late tonight into Thursday, then will monitor for highs
more in the mid 90s.

Although isolated storms are possible Thursday afternoon, expect
mainly dry conditions into Thursday evening. Surface low expected
to lift northeast through the great lakes region, with associated
boundary pushing east through the CWA Thursday night into Friday
morning. Guidance varying to the extent of any precip along this
front as it moves through the area. Do think scattered development
will be in place along this front, but intensity should be
limited as the stronger large scale ascent will be to the north.

As front pushes east on Friday, precip chances quickly lower.

Cooler and dry conditions then expected this weekend into early
next week.

Rodriguez

Climate
Record high temps could be jeopardy Thursday, here
are the current records:
chicago 92 (2017)
rockford 92 (1920)

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

1258 pm... Primary forecast concern is thunderstorm potential
Thursday morning.

The area of showers and thunderstorms across eastern ia and
southwest wi is slowly dissipating and this trend is expected to
continue into this afternoon. How fast it weakens and how far east
the precip spreads is a bit uncertain so added tempo showers at
rfd but this activity is currently not expected to reach the
chicago area terminals.

A stationary front across central il will lift north as a warm
front overnight into Thursday morning. This may allow isolated to
scattered thunderstorms to develop as instability increases aloft.

If any convection develops... The best timing would likely be
centered on sunrise... But may persist into the mid morning hours
and adjusted prob timing by a few hours. After this time period...

the rest of the period appears to be dry as the warm front shifts
north of the area.

Few sct CU are possible this afternoon but there remains quite a
bit of low stratus over southern portions of the lake and this may
move inland after sunset. Confidence is fairly low so only
included few mention for lower clouds at this time. Some patchy
fog is also possible toward sunrise Thursday morning in the usual
locations.

East northeast winds will continue this afternoon and are expected
to slowly shift east southeasterly this evening and more to the
south southeast by sunrise. However... Any precip Thursday morning
is likely going to produce outflows and erratic winds so changes
to the wind forecast Thursday morning are possible. Eventually...

winds will shift more south southwest with the gradient tightening
and the low levels mixing by mid late afternoon. Thus gusts into
the mid 20kt range look reasonable toward the end of the 30 hr
ord mdw tafs. Cms

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... None.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45186 0 mi37 min NE 7.8 67°F 71°F2 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 1 mi57 min NE 11 G 19 66°F
45187 8 mi37 min 67°F 70°F2 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 15 mi57 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 65°F 1017.6 hPa (-0.3)
45174 18 mi27 min NE 9.7 G 14 67°F 71°F3 ft65°F
FSTI2 28 mi117 min NE 4.1 67°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 34 mi37 min NNE 13 G 14 67°F 63°F
CNII2 37 mi27 min NNE 9.9 G 15 67°F 61°F
JAKI2 42 mi117 min NE 8 G 18 68°F
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 46 mi39 min N 11 G 13 68°F 1016.2 hPa64°F
45007 - S MICHIGAN 43NM East Southeast of Milwaukee, WI 46 mi67 min NE 5.8 G 7.8 65°F 70°F2 ft1017.8 hPa (-1.0)61°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 47 mi37 min NE 8 G 8.9 64°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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NE6
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NE8
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G6
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NE5

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi62 minNE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy67°F60°F79%1016.8 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI17 mi64 minENE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F62°F81%1017.8 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi65 minNE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F60°F68%1017.5 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9CalmNE6NE8E7CalmCalmN3N4N3N5NE5NE6NE7E4E5NE6E9NE7NE10
G15
NE9NE9NE9NE7
1 day agoE6E4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmNE6N8N6N5NE3N8Calm34N10
G17
N5N10
G21
NW7Calm
2 days agoE9E7E7SE4CalmSE4SE4SE4SE4S5CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5N4N3CalmE6E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.