Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Waukegan, IL
May 14, 2024 11:19 PM CDT (04:19 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:28 AM Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 11:17 AM Moonset 1:45 AM |
LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island Il- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor Il- 900 Pm Cdt Tue May 14 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am cdt Wednesday - .
Rest of tonight - North winds 20 to 25 kt becoming northeast at 15 to 25 kt after midnight. Slight chance of showers this evening. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday - North winds 15 to 20 kt. Mostly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday night - North winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast 5 to 10 kt overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southeast 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
LMZ700
No data
No data
FXUS63 KLOT 150143 CCA AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 843 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue through around sunset roughly south of a Pontiac to Valparaiso line.
- A narrow axis of heavy rainfall (20-30% chance of >1" of rain)
resulting in localized flooding remains possible through this evening over locations that experienced heavy rainfall across Livingston, Ford and Iroquois counties on Monday.
- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return on Thursday, followed by warming temperatures into the weekend.
UPDATE
Issued at 823 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
No significant changes made to the going forecast this evening.
While a gradual diurnal decrease in coverage/intensity of convective showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected, we'll continue to monitor these slow, west-southwestward moving cells for locally heavy rainfall potential across our east and southeast counties this evening.
A broad upper-level low was evident in GOES vapor imagery this evening, with a primary center located over southeast Missouri.
A couple of other smaller vorts were noted within the broader trough however, including one near KIND. This vort is likely aiding continued rain development over north-central IN, as well as scattered convective showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across northern/northwest IN including the far east/southeast counties in the WFO LOT cwa. Thankfully, rainfall rates have been fairly low (<0.10" per hour) since this afternoon across areas which saw locally heavy amounts yesterday (roughly between the I-55 and I-57 corridors south of Chicago), with some of the earlier more widespread shower activity focused across Lake and Porter counties which saw little previous rainfall. North-northeast low level flow off of Lake Michigan has helped to keep temperatures cooler and instability much weaker than farther east into IWX's cwa, where deeper convective cores (and the only recent lightning) have been noted across Starke and Pulaski counties. As noted above, while a gradual decrease in coverage and intensity is expected, we'll continue to monitor rainfall rates/amounts with these slow- moving cells as they drift west-southwest at around 10 mph into our eastern counties.
The going forecast has the general trends handled well, with showers mainly east of a Pontiac to Gary line gradually becoming less numerous and gradually shifting off to the southeast overnight. Thus, no significant changes are needed.
Ratzer
DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Through Tonight:
We remain under the influence of an upper-level low over central Missouri this afternoon, with the associated surface low over far western Kentucky. An ongoing light rain band near the IL/WI state line will gradually dissipate over the next few hours as mid/upper forcing begins to wane north of the exiting low. Focus then settles on an active mid-level deformation axis stretching from near Pontiac ENE toward South Bend this afternoon. This axis has roughly aligned with an exiting (and stalling) surface boundary in an area with locally higher low- level instability after some morning sun. While overall surface- based instability is modest at best, marginal lapse rates and low LCLs will support a general axis of broken showers and embedded storms that should persist through sunset.
The main concern is on localized flooding for areas that experienced heavy rain across east-central Illinois on Monday.
Had considered a targeted Flash Flood Watch for Livingston, Ford and Iroquois counties through early evening, but the expected small footprint of higher convective rates supported more of a tactical gridded/graphical forecast approach. Would not be surprised if an areal Flood Advisory is needed at some point through early evening, but the likelihood of a Flash Flood Warning remains under 30%. If a Flash Flood Warning were needed, the most favored area would be from southeast Livingston into northwest Iroquois counties where the highest axis of rain on Monday has resulted in a Flash Flood potential with rates as little as 1"/3hr this afternoon.
Overall activity will only slowly shift southeast through the night as the upper-level drifts east, with some showers lingering into Wednesday morning south of a Watseka to Rensselaer line.
Kluber
Wednesday through Tuesday:
Other than a few spotty showers lingering early Wednesday morning (as noted above) dry conditions are expected the rest of the day on Wednesday as mid-level ridging builds overhead in the wake of the departing low. This should also allow for warmer temperatures compared to today, especially well inland from the lake in Illinois where low to mid 70s are expected if clouds can clear out. Continued northerly flow will keep temperatures cooler near the lake and further inland across northwest Indiana where highs likely still struggle to warm out of the upper 50s to mid 60s.
As mentioned in previous discussions, confidence in the details decreases with time in the extended forecast period due to a greater degree of variability in the handling of a cut-off low across the desert southwest as it drifts east and whether it remains south of the area or phases with the broader upper jet near the region late week into the weekend.
There is, however, a continued signal for dissipating convection (storm clusters/MVC/etc) to to approach the area heading into the day on Thursday which could result in renewed convective development during the afternoon/early evening period. At this range conditions do not appear favorable for severe weather given generally weaker shear/instability parameters this far north.
Additional showers/storms may continue into Friday though again will be dependent up on the southern stream cut-off low/shortwave. While a dry forecast can't be guaranteed over the weekend there is perhaps a bit better signal for increased precipitation chances early next workweek. Temperatures also look to trend warmer each day with highs back into the upper 70s to lower 80s by the weekend (with the exception of lake adjacent areas).
Petr
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 823 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
UPDATED Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Key Aviation Impacts for the current TAF period:
- Cloud cover lingers keeping MVFR conditions around the area through midnight
- Slight chance (less than 30 percent) for lower clouds to move in briefly early Wednesday morning
A line of showers in northern Indiana keep -SHRA in the KGYY TAF. VCSH was pulled from the KORD being too far north, but radar returns keep showing pop up development around KMDW so VCSH was left there.
High clouds remain over the region, but with persistent onshore flow lower clouds have scattered out enough to allow for VFR conditions. The center of low pressure that is driving the rain and cloud cover will gradually move to the east through Central Illinois overnight. As it does, there is a chance for some MVFR cigs to move back into Chicago terminals. The chances are less than 30 percent, so it only mentioned using a SCT group. If it does move in, it is thought to only develop for a short duration. Only KGYY has a chance for long duration cloud cover through the night where IFR conditions are expected (being closer to the low).
Northeasterly winds 10 to 15 knots are expected through the TAF period, with VFR conditions expected through Wednesday.
DK
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for the IL and IN nearshore waters.
Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 843 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue through around sunset roughly south of a Pontiac to Valparaiso line.
- A narrow axis of heavy rainfall (20-30% chance of >1" of rain)
resulting in localized flooding remains possible through this evening over locations that experienced heavy rainfall across Livingston, Ford and Iroquois counties on Monday.
- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return on Thursday, followed by warming temperatures into the weekend.
UPDATE
Issued at 823 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
No significant changes made to the going forecast this evening.
While a gradual diurnal decrease in coverage/intensity of convective showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected, we'll continue to monitor these slow, west-southwestward moving cells for locally heavy rainfall potential across our east and southeast counties this evening.
A broad upper-level low was evident in GOES vapor imagery this evening, with a primary center located over southeast Missouri.
A couple of other smaller vorts were noted within the broader trough however, including one near KIND. This vort is likely aiding continued rain development over north-central IN, as well as scattered convective showers and a few embedded thunderstorms across northern/northwest IN including the far east/southeast counties in the WFO LOT cwa. Thankfully, rainfall rates have been fairly low (<0.10" per hour) since this afternoon across areas which saw locally heavy amounts yesterday (roughly between the I-55 and I-57 corridors south of Chicago), with some of the earlier more widespread shower activity focused across Lake and Porter counties which saw little previous rainfall. North-northeast low level flow off of Lake Michigan has helped to keep temperatures cooler and instability much weaker than farther east into IWX's cwa, where deeper convective cores (and the only recent lightning) have been noted across Starke and Pulaski counties. As noted above, while a gradual decrease in coverage and intensity is expected, we'll continue to monitor rainfall rates/amounts with these slow- moving cells as they drift west-southwest at around 10 mph into our eastern counties.
The going forecast has the general trends handled well, with showers mainly east of a Pontiac to Gary line gradually becoming less numerous and gradually shifting off to the southeast overnight. Thus, no significant changes are needed.
Ratzer
DISCUSSION
Issued at 300 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Through Tonight:
We remain under the influence of an upper-level low over central Missouri this afternoon, with the associated surface low over far western Kentucky. An ongoing light rain band near the IL/WI state line will gradually dissipate over the next few hours as mid/upper forcing begins to wane north of the exiting low. Focus then settles on an active mid-level deformation axis stretching from near Pontiac ENE toward South Bend this afternoon. This axis has roughly aligned with an exiting (and stalling) surface boundary in an area with locally higher low- level instability after some morning sun. While overall surface- based instability is modest at best, marginal lapse rates and low LCLs will support a general axis of broken showers and embedded storms that should persist through sunset.
The main concern is on localized flooding for areas that experienced heavy rain across east-central Illinois on Monday.
Had considered a targeted Flash Flood Watch for Livingston, Ford and Iroquois counties through early evening, but the expected small footprint of higher convective rates supported more of a tactical gridded/graphical forecast approach. Would not be surprised if an areal Flood Advisory is needed at some point through early evening, but the likelihood of a Flash Flood Warning remains under 30%. If a Flash Flood Warning were needed, the most favored area would be from southeast Livingston into northwest Iroquois counties where the highest axis of rain on Monday has resulted in a Flash Flood potential with rates as little as 1"/3hr this afternoon.
Overall activity will only slowly shift southeast through the night as the upper-level drifts east, with some showers lingering into Wednesday morning south of a Watseka to Rensselaer line.
Kluber
Wednesday through Tuesday:
Other than a few spotty showers lingering early Wednesday morning (as noted above) dry conditions are expected the rest of the day on Wednesday as mid-level ridging builds overhead in the wake of the departing low. This should also allow for warmer temperatures compared to today, especially well inland from the lake in Illinois where low to mid 70s are expected if clouds can clear out. Continued northerly flow will keep temperatures cooler near the lake and further inland across northwest Indiana where highs likely still struggle to warm out of the upper 50s to mid 60s.
As mentioned in previous discussions, confidence in the details decreases with time in the extended forecast period due to a greater degree of variability in the handling of a cut-off low across the desert southwest as it drifts east and whether it remains south of the area or phases with the broader upper jet near the region late week into the weekend.
There is, however, a continued signal for dissipating convection (storm clusters/MVC/etc) to to approach the area heading into the day on Thursday which could result in renewed convective development during the afternoon/early evening period. At this range conditions do not appear favorable for severe weather given generally weaker shear/instability parameters this far north.
Additional showers/storms may continue into Friday though again will be dependent up on the southern stream cut-off low/shortwave. While a dry forecast can't be guaranteed over the weekend there is perhaps a bit better signal for increased precipitation chances early next workweek. Temperatures also look to trend warmer each day with highs back into the upper 70s to lower 80s by the weekend (with the exception of lake adjacent areas).
Petr
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 823 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
UPDATED Issued at 646 PM CDT Tue May 14 2024
Key Aviation Impacts for the current TAF period:
- Cloud cover lingers keeping MVFR conditions around the area through midnight
- Slight chance (less than 30 percent) for lower clouds to move in briefly early Wednesday morning
A line of showers in northern Indiana keep -SHRA in the KGYY TAF. VCSH was pulled from the KORD being too far north, but radar returns keep showing pop up development around KMDW so VCSH was left there.
High clouds remain over the region, but with persistent onshore flow lower clouds have scattered out enough to allow for VFR conditions. The center of low pressure that is driving the rain and cloud cover will gradually move to the east through Central Illinois overnight. As it does, there is a chance for some MVFR cigs to move back into Chicago terminals. The chances are less than 30 percent, so it only mentioned using a SCT group. If it does move in, it is thought to only develop for a short duration. Only KGYY has a chance for long duration cloud cover through the night where IFR conditions are expected (being closer to the low).
Northeasterly winds 10 to 15 knots are expected through the TAF period, with VFR conditions expected through Wednesday.
DK
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for the IL and IN nearshore waters.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45186 | 0 mi | 29 min | 18G | 52°F | 52°F | 3 ft | ||
| 45187 | 8 mi | 29 min | 19G | 50°F | 53°F | 3 ft | ||
| KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI | 15 mi | 19 min | N 11G | 51°F | 29.84 | |||
| 45199 | 24 mi | 49 min | N 19 | 45°F | 46°F | 4 ft | 29.87 | |
| OKSI2 | 33 mi | 79 min | N 7G | 53°F | ||||
| CHII2 - Chicago, IL | 34 mi | 29 min | N 24G | 55°F | 52°F | |||
| CNII2 | 37 mi | 19 min | N 9.9G | 52°F | 46°F | |||
| MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI | 44 mi | 29 min | NNE 21G | 52°F | ||||
| CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL | 46 mi | 49 min | NNW 12G | 53°F | 29.78 | 50°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KUGN WAUKEGAN NATIONAL,IL | 5 sm | 28 min | N 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 52°F | 39°F | 62% | 29.84 | |
| KENW KENOSHA RGNL,WI | 17 sm | 26 min | N 09 | 10 sm | Overcast | 52°F | 39°F | 62% | 29.85 | |
| KPWK CHICAGO EXECUTIVE,IL | 19 sm | 27 min | NNE 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 54°F | 41°F | 62% | 29.84 |
Chicago, IL,
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