Tuesday, September25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Amherst Center, MA

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What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 6:42PM Tuesday September 25, 2018 9:16 AM EDT (13:16 UTC) Moonrise 7:24PMMoonset 6:56AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 716 Am Edt Tue Sep 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from noon edt today through this evening...
Today..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft. Showers likely this morning, then showers this afternoon. Patchy fog this afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming S around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Fri..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Fri night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sat night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Tue Sep 25 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A warm front will lift north across the waters Tue night, resutling in very heavy rain, limited visibility, and strong winds. A cold front will follow shortly after, passing through the region Wed night. High pres builds over new eng Thu and Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Amherst Center, MA
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location: 42.38, -72.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 251103
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
703 am edt Tue sep 25 2018

Synopsis
An approaching warm front will bring a soaking heavy rain to the
region today with some poor drainage street flooding issues
possible. The steady rain should wind down later this evening... But
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible through
the night with locally heavy downpours. Summer-like warmth and
humidity return Wednesday with scattered showers thunderstorms in
the afternoon and early night. High pressure brings seasonably cool
and less humid weather for Thursday through Saturday. A cold front
moves through Saturday night Sunday morning with a chance of
showers, then dry and seasonable weather returns.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Highlights...

* heavy rain Tue with poor drainage street flooding issues possible
* low risk for a t-storm late Tue night near the south coast
7 am update...

early season overrunning precip event with 1038 mb high over
maine and new brunswick, providing an ideal setup for anomalous
moist airmass with pwats near 2 inches over the mid atlantic to
surge northeast up and over the cool dome of air across new
england. Radar beginning to show strengthening low level
southeast jet with precip shield blossoming over eastern ny and
western ct ma with upslope component contributing to heavier
rain over the higher terrain, evidence by gusty ese winds up to
21 kt at aqw in northwest ma and ddh in southwest vt. Wind swept
rain for the coastal plain with buoys south of long island
gusting up to 30 kt. The 1038 mb high will provide cool air
damming with northerly winds in the ct river providing a chilly
rain today with temps only in the 40s this morning. Previous
forecast captures these nicely so no major changes with this
forecast update. Earlier discussion below.

=================================================================
overview...

everything continues to come together for a widespread soaking
rain event starting early this morning and lasting into the
evening. Early this morning a warm front is approaching from the
south which will turn winds (currently out of the ne) to the
southeast then south through the day. This warm front brings in
a very moist atmospheric column, with pwats approaching 2"
(quite anomalous for this time of year) which will feed the
heavy rain fall. We'll have plenty of forcing to take make use
of this moisture as well. In addition to the warm front
overriding the residual cold air left over from our colder start
to the week, we'll have a strong, fast moving LLJ traversing
the area today. Winds at 850 mb reach 45-50 kts, and at 925
winds top out near 35-45 kts. The southeasterly component to
this 925 jet will potentially enhance the precip orographically
as winds flow up the terrain into western ma ct. Some of the
latest guidance has been hitting on a few bullseyes of 3"+
including the last few runs of the ec, and this orographic
enhancement could be a factor.

Generally, though, still expecting more widespread totals of
1-2 inches with the lowest totals over the south coast, cape,
and islands. Some typical nuisance flooding in urban areas with
poor drainage is expected, but not seeing much potential for big
flooding issues. One factor that will help keep this from being
more of a widespread flooding event is the transient nature of
the jet. It's a relatively quick mover, and thus the strongest
forcing for heavy precip shouldn't linger long enough to cause
serious flooding issues. Temperatures will be warmer than we saw
on Monday but still fairly cool given the cloud cover and that
winds don't switch around to the south until later in the day.

We'll range from the upper 50s to 60s, warmest along the coast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Wednesday
The widespread rain comes to an end from west to east during the
evening as do our strongest LLJ winds, leaving us without the
strongest forcing. Showers will continue, however, as the
atmosphere remains very moist (pwat values don't really drop)
and winds remain 35-40 kts in the low levels. This will keep
scattered showers in the forecast through the night. As
mentioned by the previous forecaster, some of the hi-res
guidance shows potential for a few thunderstorms early Wednesday
morning before 8 am. The 3 km NAM is currently the only one
really showing much of anything, but it does have good
instability (cape values ~1000 j kg) to accompany the lift
provided by the LLJ and the very moist atmosphere. Something to
watch as we get closer and more in range of some other hi-res
guidance.

Temperatures will be warmer overnight given southerly wind and
waa behind the warm front. Low dip into the upper 60s along the
coast and upper 50s in western ma.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Highlights...

* summer-like warmth and humidity Wednesday
* scattered showers & t-storms possible late Wednesday
* mainly dry and seasonable Thursday thru Monday
Wednesday and Wednesday night...

impressive warm sector for this time of year overspreads the region
with +20c air at 925 mb streaming across the region. These temp
anomalies are about +2 standard deviations warmer than climo and
will support highs Wed of 75-80, possibly low 80s if enough breaks
of sunshine develop. It will feel summer-ish as dew pts soar into
the low 70s! Thus summer-like warmth and humidity which will also
yield sb capes on the order of 500-1000j kg. This may set the stage
for an interesting setup as strong convection exits ny state during
wed afternoon and approaching northern and western ma late in the
day, possibly into ct as well. 0-6 km shear also increases to 35-40
kt by 00z over northwest ma. Thus low risk for a few strong storms
impacting northern and western ma, possibly into northwest ct wed
evening with strong to damaging winds the main concern. Other
concern with any convection late Wed into Wed evening will be
potential for very heavy rainfall as pwats surge upward to 2+
inches! This line of convection will likely weaken after 00z as blyr
cools and mid level lapse rates remain poor.

Otherwise Wed is not a complete washout with many hours of dry
weather and possibly a few breaks of sunshine. Again very summer-
like with highs 75-80 and humid with dew pts in the lower 70s. It
will be breezy with low level jet lingering across southeast ma.

This will translate to ssw winds of 20-30 mph across CAPE cod and
the islands.

Fropa second half of the night with good drying thru the column as
pwats crash downward along with dew pts falling into the 50s late.

Thus turning drier and noticeably less humid late Wed night.

One wildcard here Wed night is that NAM suggest moisture from
tropical depression (currently 300 miles south of CAPE hatteras)
advects northward into southern new england and interacts with
baroclinic frontal boundary trough moving across our area to yield a
predecessor rainfall event (pre), with intense rainfall rates. Still
48+ hrs out in time and NAM model only guidance source suggesting a
pre. Nonetheless it's something we'll have to watch.

Thursday and Friday...

fropa late Wed night followed by weak high pressure building over
the region providing dry, seasonable weather and lower humidity thu
and fri. However frontal boundary stalls offshore as 591 dam
southeast ridge maintains southwest flow aloft across new england,
resulting in parallel flow to the surface front. In addition
tropical wave currently off the southeast us coast gets captured my
upper trough and streams northward off the eastern seaboard. This
low may transition from a tropical wave to a baroclinic wave
(southeast of 40n 70w benchmark Thu and fri) on the stall frontal
boundary offshore. Only potential impact here would be for mariners
with increased wave action.

Saturday...

trailing northern stream short wave and attending cold front move
across the region. Weak WAA ahead of this feature will result in
milder temps Sat with highs in the low 70s, right on track for this
time of year. With dew pts in the 50s and partly to mostly sunny
conditions should be very pleasant. Only wrinkle will be the risk of
a few afternoon evening showers. Definitely not a washout, just
scattered afternoon evening showers.

Sunday and Monday...

dry and cooler behind the FROPA with 1030 mb high pres building into
from the great lakes and oh valley. Temps may run a few degs cooler
than normal with highs both days in the 60s and overnight lows in
the 40s to lower 50s in the urban areas.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ...

11z update...

no major changes with 12z tafs as previous forecast on track.

Earlier discussion below.

================================================================
today... High confidence
MVFR conditions will overspread the region this morning ahead of
a widespread soaking rain all of today. CIGS will lower to low
end MVFR ifr during the day with heaviest rains. Rain is
expected to enter central ct and ma by 09z and spread east to
the coast by 15z. Heavy downpours are likely in spots and gusty
ese winds are expected along the coast. With a SE low level jet
of around 45 kts crossing the region some llws is possible
during the afternoon.

Tuesday night... Moderate confidence.

Low end MVFR-ifr CIGS and vsbys will continue with localized
lifr conditions in areas of patchy fog. The widespread rain
becomes more showery in nature but persists through the night
with a scattered t-storm possible. Llws is expected as well.

Wednesday... Moderate confidence.

Conditions slowly improve to MVFRVFR through the day, with
shower chances continued, more scattered in nature.

Thunderstorms possible during the afternoon evening with
localized heavy downpours and gusty winds possible. MVFR ifr
conditions expected with showers.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with
local gusts to 30 kt. Chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Shra likely, chance tsra, patchy br.

Thursday:VFR. Breezy.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Patchy br.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible.

Friday night: mainly ifr, with areasVFR possible. Patchy br.

Saturday:

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ...

today... Moderate to high confidence. Strong 40-50 kt SE low
level jet will enter the region with a warm front today. This
will bring strong small craft wind gusts to all waters and gale
force winds to the offshore waters east of CAPE anne. In
coordination with gyx... We opted to upgrade the gale watch to a
gale warning for Tue evening across our northern waters where
there greatest risk appears. Strong small craft headlines
elsewhere. Widespread rain that will be heavy at times will also
reduce vsbys for mariners. Seas build back to between 6 and 10
feet across our waters.

Tonight... Moderate to high confidence. The strongest low level
winds move out of the area and thus winds should diminish but
still expect 20+ knot wind gusts to persist overnight with the
still present llj. Seas will remain above small craft
thresholds across most open waters through 12z. Scattered
showers and perhaps a few t-storms along with fog will also
reduce vsbys for mariners.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Rain showers likely, chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Friday through Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Wednesday for anz232>234.

Small craft advisory from noon today to 10 pm edt this evening
for anz230.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Wednesday for anz231.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz236.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for anz235-237-
254>256.

Gale warning from 7 pm this evening to midnight edt tonight
for anz250.

Small craft advisory until 4 am edt Wednesday for anz251.

Synopsis... Nocera bw
near term... Nocera bw
short term... Bw
long term... Nocera
aviation... Nocera bw
marine... Nocera bw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 70 mi34 min 56°F 68°F1032 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 74 mi28 min 57°F 70°F1030.4 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 76 mi28 min 57°F 68°F1032.3 hPa

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA12 mi80 minNNE 76.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist50°F47°F91%1032.8 hPa
Orange Municipal Airport, MA18 mi24 minNNW 39.00 miLight Rain50°F46°F89%1033.8 hPa
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA19 mi23 minN 75.00 miRain Fog/Mist49°F48°F97%1032.8 hPa

Wind History from CEF (wind in knots)
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E7E6E4E5--E4E3CalmCalmCalmNE3NE5NE4E3NE5NE4NE4NE5NE4NE5N7N6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSW4SW4S3Calm--CalmCalmNE3CalmNE3CalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmN4N4--NE5NE6
2 days agoN9N15
G26
N7N10N8NE10NE7N6N6CalmN4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3

Tide / Current Tables for Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for South Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.