Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hamtramck, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:52AMSunset 5:35PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 4:44 PM EST (21:44 UTC) Moonrise 8:51PMMoonset 9:47AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0040.000000t0000z-181006t2345z/ 710 Pm Edt Sat Oct 6 2018
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4216 8321 4218 8313 4213 8312 4205 8315 4202 8314 4198 8315 4197 8318 4196 8328 time...mot...loc 2308z 250deg 36kt 4214 8305
LCZ423 Expires:201810062320;;348663 FZUS73 KDTX 062310 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 710 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2018 LCZ423-LEZ444-062320-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamtramck, MI
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location: 42.38, -83.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 232022
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
322 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Discussion
Near term rest of today through tonight
as of 320 pm est... Low pressure system that brought a wintry mix of
snow, sleet, and freezing rain to southeast michigan yesterday
evening through early this morning continues to progress northeast
across lower michigan. The low pressure center was located over
saginaw bay as of 3pm, and will continue to lift northeast towards
georgian bay by late this evening.

Temperatures across the region have warmed above freezing, with many
locations now in the upper 30s to around 40. Portions of the tri-
cities continue to struggle warming, with temperatures a little
cooler in the mid 30s. With temperatures above freezing,
precipitation type is now virtually all rain drizzle across
southeast michigan, with a few wet snowflakes likely mixing in
across bay and midland counties. Showers and periodic drizzle will
continue into the early evening hours, with activity ending from
southwest to northeast as the system dry slot punches into lower
michigan.

Increased momentum transport combined with the slightly drier air
and arrival of strong cold air advection associated with the system
cold front swinging through this evening will result in a brief
uptick in wind gusts. Gusts around 30 mph will be possible during
the evening hours as temperatures plunge back below freezing 23z-03z
from west to east. Any stronger wind gusts look to be limited by
residual boundary layer stability.

The big weather concern for this evening and into tonight will be
the potential for black ice formation. Not necessarily a slam dunk
for flash freeze, but enough residual moisture especially on
untreated roadways will have the potential of freezing over this
evening into early tonight. Will have to monitor these trends
closely and potentially issue a special weather statement if road
conditions support widespread black ice formation.

Outside of black ice concerns, dry weather under thick low stratus
will prevail tonight as low temperatures settle in the 20s. The
cloud cover will help to limit low temperatures from falling further
as 850 hpa temps plummet from a peak of around 3 c this morning down
to the negative teens by 12z Thursday in the strong low-level cold
advective regime.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
deepening polar trough will begin to swing southeast into the upper
great lakes Thursday and will foreshadow another round of arctic air
that will begin encompassing the region for the next week. Westerly
flow will release a plume of moisture off lake michigan late
Thursday afternoon and into the evening hours, with numerous snow
showers developing across much of southeast michigan. Convective
depths look to grow to 5-6 kft, with pretty favorable microphysics
with a 1-2 kft supersaturation with respect to ice layer in the dgz.

Steep low-level lapse rates also look to develop with some hints at
some CAPE intersecting the dgz. With around 30 knots of boundary
layer flow, there will be the potential for a few snow squalls to
develop in the increasingly arctic airmass. Best potential at seeing
snow squalls looks to be 22z-03z. Quick snowfall accumulations
around a half of an inch seem certainly plausible across much of the
region, with locally higher amounts in heavier snow bursts.

Scattered lake effect snow showers with additional minor
accumulations look to continue Thursday night and into the day
Friday as the trough axis swings through.

The return of bitter cold will be well underway beginning Thursday
night and through Friday as mean longwave troughing over the great
lakes and upper midwest reestablishes itself as sub 490 dam 500 hpa
heights plunge south from hudson bay. Lows Thursday night will fall
into the single digits lower teens after highs during the day in the
20s. Highs will then only reach into the teens Friday with lows
Friday night likely falling below zero for a large portion of the
region as 850 hpa temps plunge below -20 c. Extended period of below
zero wind chills will begin Thursday night as well, with some areas
potentially reaching wind chill advisory criteria Friday night into
Saturday morning.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
bitter cold will dominate the long term period as 850 hpa temps hold
solidly well into the -20s c, and potentially flirt with -30 c at
times late this weekend. Daytime highs will likely not make it out
of the teens with low temperatures in the single digits to below
zero. Dangerous wind chills will also prevail throughout the entire
long term period.

Pieces of shortwave energy rotating through the polar trough will
bring periodic chances of light snow this weekend. A more robust
clipper low will approach the region Monday into Tuesday with the
potential for accumulating snowfall. Still plenty of time to watch
this system unfold, but there is a growing signal in a significant
snowfall Monday into Tuesday. Behind this system, potentially even
colder air will move into the region for the middle of next week.

Marine
Low pressure will move across central lake huron this evening. Winds
will become northwesterly after passage and remain brisk west
northwesterly through the weekend. Wind gusts could approach gales
Thursday night and Friday across central and northern lake huron.

Cold arctic air will produce bands of lake effect snow through the
forecast period.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1244 pm est Wed jan 23 2019
aviation...

surface low pressure centered between grr and mbs will quickly move
northeast into canada by 00z. Associated cold front will sweep
through southeast michigan during the 21-00z time frame. Light
rain, drizzle, fog and ifr ceilings will prevail along and ahead of
the front along with brisk ssw flow gusting to around 22kts. After
passage precip will quickly come to an end with fog lifting shortly
after. Low ifr stratus will lift slightly overnight into the 1k-2k
ft range then lifting to high end MVFR Thursday morning. Winds will
sharply turn to the wnw after passage with post frontal gusts to
around 20kts.

For dtw... Ifr ceilings, drizzle, light rain and visibilities varying
1 to 5sm and brisk ssw flow will continue until frontal passage
around 00z. Precip will quickly end with passage. Fog will quickly
lift post frontal while ifr stratus slowly lifts to low end MVFR
tonight and high end MVFR Thursday. Wnw flow mainly around 10kts
after cold front passage will prevail through end of TAF period.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high in precip type being all rain through the rest of the day.

* high for ceilings below 5000 through TAF period.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Irl
marine... ... .Drc
aviation... ..Drc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 11 mi105 min SSW 11 G 17 41°F 1002.7 hPa (-2.4)
AGCM4 32 mi87 min 38°F 32°F1001.7 hPa
TWCO1 48 mi65 min S 19 G 24 43°F 999 hPa43°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 53 mi87 min 41°F 1000.9 hPa

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Last
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S6
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N3
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NW11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI4 mi1.9 hrsSSW 111.75 miLight Rain Fog/Mist40°F39°F97%1002.4 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI13 mi69 minSSW 10 G 1510.00 miOvercast42°F39°F90%1001.7 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi1.9 hrsSW 141.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist43°F39°F89%1002.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI20 mi1.8 hrsSSW 101.50 miLight Rain Fog/Mist41°F40°F100%1002.3 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi69 minSSW 100.75 miLight Rain37°F36°F98%1001.7 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S8S7S8S8S6S5S6S6S6S5S5S5S5S8S4S5S9S9S12S16
G23
S15
G23
SW14SW11
1 day ago3S3SW3SW4SW5SW4CalmSW4SW6CalmCalmSE3S4S5SE8S9S9
G17
S12S15
G23
SE12S13S9SE10S11
2 days agoN11
G19
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N7N7N10NW9NW9NW12
G17
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NW8NW9NW7NW7NW7NW7W5NW6W8NW8NW7NW65W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.