Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 3:36 AM   Moonset 3:36 PM

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LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 042303 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 703 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and possible non-severe thunderstorms this evening through Sunday morning.

- High pressure builds in latter half of Sunday through Monday bringing drier conditions and closer to average temperatures.

- Developing low pressure over the Midwest brings widespread shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION

Late afternoon and early evening peak instability is just enough for a blossoming of showers as southerly cloud layer flow reinforced moisture across the area. Within and outside of the showers, borderline MVFR/VFR ceiling is widespread across SE Mi along with a notable area of clear sky or scattered clouds over western Lower Mi.
A brief clearing trend along the SE Mi terminal corridor adds complexity to the forecast as open sky could lead to fog and/or low cloud development post sunset but with low predictability. Lower ceiling and visibility are supported by boundary layer moisture continuing to pool ahead of the expansive Midwest cold front. The issuance time position of the front extends from Lake Superior through the mid MS valley and into the southern Plains while supporting a broken line of thunderstorms along its length. The front maintains integrity while moving into Lower Mi after midnight while the storms weaken with the loss of daytime instability. The front then moves through SE Mi with some lingering showers while maintaining IFR ceiling late tonight and early Sunday. A standard daytime ceiling improvement occurs as cooler north wind gains traction Sunday afternoon.

For DTW/D21 Convection... Thunderstorms south of TOL at issuance time are slow moving and dependent on daytime instability. These stay south of DTW while a pop-up shower or storm remains possible over or near the terminal until sunset. Instability continues decreasing this evening as a cold front and line of storms enter western Lower Mi. These storms also weaken to a few stray showers as the front moves through the DTW area around sunrise Sunday.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms tonight.

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less tonight and Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

DISCUSSION...

Southeasterly lower level flow has developed this afternoon in response to a weak cold front gradually sagging into the western Great Lakes. This wind shift supports modest moisture advection from Ohio, where dewpoints are holding in the mid 60s, nudging local Td's into the low 60s late this afternoon-evening. Even with this extra moisture, both SB/MLCAPEs are expected to stay fairly meager, holding closer to 500 J/kg. Forecast soundings advertise an uncapped environment with weak column winds (<20kts thru 500mb) which supports scattered pop-up showers and perhaps a thunderstorm into early tonight as height falls move in from the west and a diffuse PV anomaly lifts NE over far northwestern Ohio. Surface cold front crosses the area Sunday morning offering another window for scattered showers, particularly along/north of I-69 owing to closer proximity to parent shortwave which offers slightly better upper support/forcing compared to locales further south.

Marginally cooler airmass fallows the frontal passage as 850mb temps drop to around 4-5C keeping highs Monday in the upper 60s to around 70 for most areas. Easterly flow beneath the surface high that will be centered over northern lower MI by this point keeps areas downwind of the lakes like Monroe and especially the Thumb cooler- upper 50s to lower 60s favored.

Upper ridging and associated surface high are shunted east by early Tuesday as a potent mid-upper wave ejects out of the Rockies into the northern Plains. A secondary surface low is progged to develop over the upper Midwest along the original, now stacked, low's triple point. This system lifts a warm front into southern lower MI over the course of Tuesday bringing the area's next appreciable chances for showers and thunderstorms. The attendant cold front quickly follows Tuesday night generating additional widespread showers and storms. Worth noting that longer range solutions suggest a ~40kt LLJ could work into the area from west MI setting up a higher shear environment with severe potential dependent on how much destabilization occurs once the warm sector fully expands of the area. SE MI resides on the edge of SPC's Day 4 15% severe weather outlook so will be something to keep on eye on as we get closer.

MARINE...

An elongated area of low pressure over Wisconsin/Illinois this afternoon tracks east into the central Great Lakes tonight, pulling a warm front north ahead of it. This will result in an increasing coverage of showers as well as modest southeasterly winds tonight.
There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms but severe weather is not expected. A cold front follows on Sunday morning with continued shower/t-storm chances and a shift to northwest wind of around 15 to 20 knots as conditions dry out for the afternoon. High pressure then builds in to bring quiet marine conditions for Monday and much of Tuesday. The next round of likely precip arrives late Tuesday as a warm front moves into the area. This marks the beginning of a more active period through the rest of the week with several disturbances working through.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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