Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hamtramck, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:59PM Thursday May 25, 2017 2:21 PM EDT (18:21 UTC) Moonrise 5:14AMMoonset 7:48PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 330 Pm Edt Sun May 21 2017
.thunderstorms approaching the waters... The areas affected include... NEarshore waters from port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 328 pm edt...doppler radar indicated Thunderstorms along a line extending from 13 nm northwest of new baltimore to grosse pointe to Monroe harbor...moving northeast at 30 knots. Strong Thunderstorms will be near... Detroit river light and st. Clair shores around 345 pm edt. Lake erie metropark harbor around 350 pm edt. Metro beach metropark marina...mt clemens harbor of refuge...st clair flats old channel light...elizabeth park marina and gibraltar around 355 pm edt. Grosse ile around 400 pm edt. Lakeport and new baltimore around 410 pm edt. Algonac around 415 pm edt. Lexington around 420 pm edt. Other locations impacted by Thunderstorms include estral beach...stony point...woodland beach...detroit beach and gibraltar. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots...locally higher waves...and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4196 8332 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4264 8256 4265 8255 4301 8247 4335 8259 4343 8251 4312 8236 4289 8247 4262 8252 4255 8259 4254 8266 4237 8283 4229 8309 4205 8315 4196 8311 4180 8332 4179 8349
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201705212130;;989569 FZUS73 KDTX 211930 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 330 PM EDT SUN MAY 21 2017 LCZ422-423-460-LEZ444-LHZ443-212130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamtramck, MI
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location: 42.38, -83.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 251648
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1248 pm edt Thu may 25 2017

Aviation
Low level moisture will remain anchored over area on backside of low
pressure as it lifts from the ohio valley into the eastern great
lakes. Ceilings should generally remain ifr with occasional MVFR.

Persistent light showers this morning from kdet kdtw kyip will fade
into the beginning of the forecast, but hrrr ruc13 suggest increased
coverage mid late afternoon as diurnal heating peaks and convergence
along inverted trough extending nnw from low pressure provides lift
for scattered convection (likely showers given lack of instability).

This activity will fade this evening with low ceilings into Friday
morning before drier westerly flow begins to bring improvement.

For dtw... Coverage of showers will be less persistent post-18z, but
may increase again for a time 21z-01z as diurnal instability max
allows for some reformation of showers. Ceilings will oscillate
between ifr and MVFR, trending more often to ifr (especially by
tonight). Slow steady improvement is expected on Friday.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for CIGS below 5000 ft through Friday morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1050 am edt Thu may 25 2017
update...

radar composite indicates a large area of showers over southern
ontario, lake erie, down into ohio and pennsylvania during the
morning. This is part of a distinct smaller scale circulation within
the upper level trough, along with another pivoting through the ohio
valley. The interaction of these two features, along with the
accelerating progression of the larger scale trough will cause the
resulting deformation pattern to set up over SE michigan, mainly with
a western edge running from the thumb region through metro detroit.

Shower coverage will be lower into central sections of lower michigan
while wet and damp conditions will be ensured by drizzle forced
within the inverted surface trough that will remain in place as the
surface low slides from ohio through central lake erie. The update
maintains the wet and gloomy message already in the forecast along
with cool temps nearly steady through the day from the mid 50s to
lower 60s.

Prev discussion...

issued at 251 am edt Thu may 25 2017
discussion...

upper low was spinning over southwest oh with the best
trowal deformation axis over eastern in. Pieces of the old trowal
were slowly weakening from dtx to oeb as it moved northwestward. The
other residual deformation axis was pivoting away from the tri
cities area early this morning. New activity was developing along
the state line, right on the edge of the mid layer dry slot. Expect
this overall pattern to continue through the morning with some
additional development on the edge of the dry slot and generally a
diminishing trend as the showers move into southeast lower mi. However
between showers, there is plenty of moisture below the mid layer dry
slot with low level cyclonic flow and convergence. Suspect there
will be areas of drizzle or light rain between the showers. Will
have a high likely pops to cover the morning.

Models in agreement with the showers across pa rotating far enough
back to the northwest this afternoon to carry categorical pops for
areas east of a bax to dtw line and perhaps even a little farther
west than that. That low level convergence with the cyclonic flow
continues all day. Then southeast lower mi is on the edge of good
500 mb fgen and deformation along with good upper jet support, that
is mainly across southwest ontario. All of those low clouds and
showers will only allow a few degree diurnal temperature swing. Kept
the idea of highs a degree or two below the lowest guidance values.

As both the surface and upper low peel away this evening, so does
the support and deep moisture. Will carry chance pops for the
evening hours. Then will be left with lots of low clouds for the
rest of the night into Friday morning. This low level moisture
slowly erodes away Friday afternoon, but the high and mid clouds
will already be streaming ahead of the next weak wave. May still
have enough peaks of sunshine Friday afternoon to call it partly
sunny. With the expected clouds around though, will lean toward the
cooler side of guidance temps.

The NAM has finally gone with a weaker solution for that Friday
night wave, but remains the farthest north. Canadian is also too far
north and too strong with that wave. Will be leaning toward the
flatter solutions of the 00z GFS and ECMWF which should keep
southeast mi dry Friday night and Saturday morning.

On Saturday, low level moisture returns for some broken cumulus to
develop. Model soundings indicate enough warm air from 5k to 15k to
provide the necessary cap to any convection that might want to try
to develop. With partly sunny skies all day on Saturday, rising
heights and warm air advection... Saturday will be the warmest of the
forecast and actually above average.

Saturday night and Sunday will see the lead wave ahead of the main
upper trough, push a cold front through the region with some showers
and storms. Can't go any higher than chance pops with the best
moisture and instability stuck to the south along I 70. After that,
it looks like the waves rotating around the upper low will be timed
fairly well with the diurnal cycle to produce a chance of showers
during the daylight hours of each day from memorial day through
Wednesday.

Marine...

moderate northeast winds will persist today as the area remains
north of strong low pressure centered over western ohio. Continued
onshore flow will also maintain higher wave activity, particularly
near the tip of the thumb. Small craft advisory conditions will
exist from the tip of the thumb into saginaw bay through the
evening. Northeast winds ease tonight as the low weakens and lifts
east. Modest north to northwest then take hold into Friday. A weak
gradient will keep wind and wave activity on the lower side to start
the holiday weekend. Potentially more unsettled conditions return
by Sunday and Monday, as low pressure tracks toward the region.

Hydrology...

periodic showers will continue to lift across southeast michigan
today, north of strong low pressure slowly lifting across ohio.

Highest rainfall amounts will tend to align from port huron down
through detroit and monroe, where upwards of .3 to .4" of additional
rainfall will be possible. Elsewhere, rainfall will generally
remain at a quarter inch or less. This long duration event is not
expected to produce any flooding other then some minor ponding on
roadways and low lying areas.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lhz421-422-
441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
update... ... .Bt
discussion... Rbp
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 11 mi82 min NNE 8 G 8.9 58°F 999 hPa (+0.0)
AGCM4 32 mi58 min 57°F 998.4 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 39 mi62 min N 11 G 12 59°F
45165 48 mi42 min N 9.7 G 12 60°F 62°F2 ft58°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 53 mi58 min NNE 1.9 G 7 61°F 998.1 hPa57°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit, Detroit City Airport, MI4 mi29 minNNE 44.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist60°F59°F96%998.1 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI13 mi28 minN 64.00 miFog/Mist60°F57°F92%999 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi29 minN 610.00 miLight Rain62°F60°F93%998.2 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI20 mi24 minENE 52.75 miLight Rain Fog/Mist60°F59°F100%998.2 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI20 mi29 minNNE 510.00 miRain60°F57°F92%998 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE10E10E11E10E9E8E9NE9NE6E10
G18
E10E11E11E10E8E9E8NE5NE6NE6NE6NE4NE4NE4
1 day agoS7
G13
S6SE7SE5E7NE4NE6CalmN4N9NE9NE7NE7NE7NE7NE5NE5E6E8E8E10E8SE9E6
2 days agoW12
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W10SW6SW5SW4S3SW5SW5S7S4S4SW7SW6SW5S7S5SW5W5CalmS10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.