Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 8:37 PM Moonrise 3:36 AM   Moonset 3:36 PM

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LCZ423 320 Am Edt Fri Apr 19 2024
.strong Thunderstorms approaching the waters - .
the areas affected include - . Detroit river - . Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi - .
at 320 am edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds up to 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 nm northwest of bolles harbor of refuge to 9 nm south of north cape, moving northeast at 40 knots.
strong Thunderstorms will be near - . Monroe harbor, bolles harbor of refuge, north cape, luna pier, and detroit beach around 325 am edt. Stony point and woodland beach around 330 am edt. Estral beach and gibraltar around 340 am edt. Lake erie metropark harbor and detroit river light around 345 am edt. Elizabeth park marina around 350 am edt.
other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include woodland beach, stony point, gibraltar, estral beach, and detroit beach.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass.
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lat - .lon 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4197 8328 4217 8321 4219 8319 4218 8313 4212 8312 4203 8315 4196 8311 4180 8333 4172 8341 4172 8347

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 041029 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 629 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Morning fog and low clouds give way to a warm Saturday with highs in the low to mid 70s.

- Scattered showers and possible non-severe thunderstorms this evening through Sunday morning.

AVIATION

The departure of a high cloud deck to the east has prompted radiational cooling atop a shallow moist layer, which has resulted in widespread LIFR conditions from PTK north to mbS. The onset of daytime mixing will support a steady erosion of these clouds through the course of the morning. Remnant moisture will then develop a scattered to broken VFR based cu field during the afternoon. A very slow moving frontal boundary will progress into Se Mi tonight. An influx of low level moisture and latest model guidance is supportive of low cloud redevelopment. Overall weak instability along this front will limit thunderstorm chances.

For DTW/D21 Convection...Southeasterly winds today will drive weak instability across the airspace after 21Z. Isolated thunderstorms are possible within this environment. Forecast probabilities suggest a 20 percent chance across the southern portions of the airspace.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms late today and overnight.

* Low in ceilings aob 5000 feet today. Moderate tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 307 AM EDT Sat May 4 2024

DISCUSSION...

Despite the showers and clouds yesterday, high temperatures were able to sneak into the lower 70s across most areas. Extremely dry airmass noted with the 00z APX raob, and some of the mid level dry air has/will make inroads into southeast Michigan. However, cool northeast flow off Lake Huron and lingering low level moisture looks sufficient to saturate the low levels, and deep enough moisture (5+ kft layer) to potentially trigger stray light rain showers, especially toward the southern Michigan border, as some of the deeper moisture over Ohio attempts to work back north late in the day, ahead of a weak cold front moving through from the western Great Lakes tonight. With surface capes under 1000 J/kg today and the mid level dry slot, do not see EQL levels getting high enough to generate thunderstorms during the daytime, but a slight chance of non-severe storms appears warranted this evening/tonight with the modest height falls and the slightly negative showalter values tracking through. Stability will be on the increase 15-17Z Sunday as the front clears the State.

Despite a fair amount of clouds today and the early morning fog, will allow high temperatures to reach into the mid 70s across most locations, based on the forecasted 925 mb temps of 17 C.

Westerly confluent upper level flow Sunday night preceding an upper level ridge axis arriving early next week, supporting dry weather on Monday and likely during the daylight hours of Tuesday before a warm front brings widespread showers and possible thunderstorms Tuesday evening/night.

MARINE...

An area of high pressure centered over the region this morning is resulting in a weak gradient with light winds and waves across the region. Elevated dew points within the stable environment have resulted in areas of dense fog across Lake Huron and a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until noon today. The gradient increases this afternoon as the high departs east, with wind organizing out of the southeast late today into tonight. A stalled front lifts north as a warm front tonight as a weak low moves from the upper Mississippi Valley into the northern Great Lakes. The system then sends a cold front through early on Sunday with a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Wind shifts to northwesterly behind the front Sunday afternoon, peaking at around 15 to 20 knots. High pressure then builds in to bring quiet marine conditions for Monday and much of Tuesday. The next warm front moves into the area late on Tuesday with stronger easterly flow developing ahead of it.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for LHZ361>363-421-422- 441>443-462>464.

Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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