Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 8:46 PM Moonrise 9:50 AM   Moonset 12:52 AM

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LCZ422 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0007.000000t0000z-240508t0215z/ 1005 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024
.the special marine warning is cancelled - .
the affected areas were - . St. Clair river - .
the Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters.
&&
lat - .lon 4267 8251 4262 8251 4255 8258 4255 8261 4265 8259 4270 8262 4270 8261 4266 8259 4264 8256 4265 8255 4276 8251 4282 8251 4282 8248 4276 8247 time - .mot - .loc 0201z 248deg 49kt 4275 8219

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 132338 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 738 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight. Severe weather is not expected, just some brief heavy rainfall and lightning.

- There is a chance for additional showers on Tuesday. The higher chances are near the Ohio border.

- Dry weather is expected Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION

Quasi-stationary frontal boundary has now settled between FNT and mbS and has been the focus for convective activity around the airspace over the last several hours, but without a direct hit to any terminals thus far. There is just a low (10-20%) chance of a thunderstorm impacting mbS/FNT through roughly 03z tonight. The front will very slowly drift south overnight, with the most recent guidance holding shower potential along and north of PTK. Much lower confidence exists across the DTW corridor for shower potential tonight given poor low level moisture quality. Highly variable guidance for cloud trends exists by Tuesday morning, although the general message is that there will be increased moisture pooling invof the front that will be favorable for either fog or low stratus development between about 07z-11z. Lowest cigs/vsbys are expected near PTK as the front will be right overhead during this timeframe.
Will note that forecast confidence is low and 18z guidance has trended drier, so outgoing TAFs represent a more middle of the road cig/vsby forecast for Tuesday morning-early afternoon. Once daytime mixing ramps up, ceilings/vsbys should lift to at least MVFR if not VFR by afternoon.

For DTW/D21 Convection...thunderstorm activity has remained north of the terminal and will continue to stay well north through the evening, thus no thunderstorms are expected at the terminal.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Medium confidence in cigs aob 5000 feet late tonight and Tuesday.

* Very low confidence in cigs/vsby aob 200 ft and/or 1/2sm 08z-15z Tuesday.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 320 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024

DISCUSSION...

The latest meso analysis shows SB Cape near 1k J/kg across the Saginaw Valley/thumb south of a sfc cold front where dewpoints are in the low to mid 50s and temps are near 80. Ongoing development of deep convection supports latest CAMS solutions which indicate convection persisting through the early evening across the north, aided by the influx of instability arriving from SW Lower MI.
Despite the sfc front forecast to push south of metro Detroit late tonight, the loss in diurnal instability will limit nighttime coverage of convection as the front sinks south. This will warrant the better convective chances this evening along/north of the I-69 corridor, with decreasing chances to the south. With 0-1KM mixed layer CAPE still below 1k J/kg and limited deep layer shear (0-6km bulk shear values around 20 knots), strong to severe storm are not favored. The thumb region will be along the edge of stronger shear profiles and could see a marginal severe risk if late day instability overachieves a bit. Otherwise, warm and breezy conditions will last into the evening amidst robust late day mixing depths.

The upper low and associated sfc reflection now over Kansas/Missouri will track across the northern Ohio Valley Tues/Tues night. This system will drive a plume of deep layer moisture into Se Mi Tues.
Overall, the 12Z model suite suggest the stronger deformation forcing will remain closer to mid level circulation, generally south of the I-94 corridor. Lingering mid level frontal forcing, albeit weak, will remain over Se Mi into Tues night, which will at least support a chance of showers across most of the forecast area.
Shallow post frontal cool air undercutting the moisture may also support some areas of drizzle Tues morning. The post frontal cold air advection and cloud cover will result in a notable cooler day Tues (highs in the 50s near Lake Huron to 60s elsewhere). Mid level ridging in the wake of the upper low will lead to a gradual departure of the deep layer moisture on Wednesday.

The next chance of rain will be Friday resulting from deep layer moist isentropic ascent along a fast moving short wave. At this stage in the forecast, instability looks to be weak (under 1k J/kg) which should limit any severe weather risk.

MARINE...

Satellite imagery shows increasing cloud depths located across the Tri-Cities into the northern Thumb, pushing northeast into the Saginaw Bay to southern Lake Huron. This will be the focal point for shower and thunderstorm activity through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts to or just above 35 knots and small hail. Special Marine Warnings may be needed with any vigorous thunderstorms development. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to last through tonight along a stationary front, sagging slightly south into southern Lake Huron overnight into Tuesday morning. High pressure will build in across the upper Great Lakes which will end rain and thunderstorm chances through Tuesday afternoon and evening as a cold front clears the state. Wind direction will veer and hold from the north-northeast Tuesday and Wednesday in response to a low pressure system which will fill in across the Ohio Valley. This will increase wave heights into the Saginaw Bay and Lake Huron shorelines, where Small Craft Advisories will be likely.

HYDROLOGY...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will occur this evening, primarily along and north of the Interstate 69 corridor.
Locally intense rainfall rates are possible in some of these thunderstorms. Rainfall amount of a quarter to half inch are possible locally. Basin average rainfall is expected to remain below a half inch, so flooding (other than localized ponding of water on the roads) is not expected.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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