Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dearborn, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 7:51PM Friday March 24, 2017 2:13 AM EDT (06:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:34AMMoonset 3:10PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0004.000000t0000z-170301t0900z/ 349 Am Est Wed Mar 1 2017
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. A severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 400 am est for southeastern michigan. Lat...lon 4172 8346 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4196 8328 4201 8325 4204 8315 4200 8313 4190 8325 4189 8331 4182 8337 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 0846z 274deg 49kt 4211 8288 4163 8356
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201703010858;;822801 FZUS73 KDTX 010849 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 349 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017 LCZ423-LEZ444-010858-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dearborn, MI
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location: 42.38, -83.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 240505
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
105 am edt Fri mar 24 2017

Aviation
Elevated convection associated with approaching warm front will
spread into terminals by 06z and persist for several hours. Cigs
will be around 3500 feet with this activity. The warm front will
lift into the northern forecast area, but guidance suggests MVFR to
lowerVFR CIGS will generally persist even as ssw flow gusts to 25
knots or a bit more as far north as kptk. The front stalls and then
settles back south late Friday, bringing lowering CIGS and light
rain/fog as low pressure encroaches from the southwest.

For dtw... Ceilings are expected to drop to 3-4 kft through about 09z
with some modest improvement in the wake of passing shower activity.

Guidance, however, suggest MVFR/lowerVFR stratus on Friday with
cigs lowering further by evening. Wind gusts within the tightening
pressure gradient in the wake of warm frontal passage will increase
to 25 knots or so and perhaps as high as 30 knots.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for CIGS below 5000 ft through 09z tonight.

* medium for CIGS falling back below 5000 ft after 15z Friday and
high after 00z Friday evening.

* low for a thunderstorm impacting terminal overnight.

* high for gusts exceeding 25 knots Friday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 302 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017
discussion...

upper ridge axis over michigan will flatten tonight as shortwave
energy arrives, first from mn/ia this evening and then as additional
energy ejects out of the upper low over the desert southwest. Strong
60kt low-level jet will surge up into michigan late as the desert
southwest low moves towards the plains. This will send a warm front
up through lower michigan this evening and tonight. Min temps in the
30s should be reached in the evening and early overnight before
beginning to rise. Band of isentropic ascent (290-300k) and strong
theta-e advection, supported by upper diffluence, will bring a
chance for rain showers after 10 pm. Will keep pops higher north of
i-69, where the nose of the low-level jet will push in as the front
lifts northward. Very dry air will initially allow for some cooling
in the low-levels due to wet-bulb effects at precipitation onset.

Quick arrival of warmer air and will make the chance for
snow/sleet/freezing rain brief and low. Enough warm air will arrive
with the low-level jet to increase elevated instability, and would
not be surprised to hear a few rumbles of thunder, but potential is
low overall.

Frontal boundary will stall over the area late tonight, with
convergence increasing along this boundary as the upper low moves
through the plains and as upper energy moves through canada around
another low over hudson bay. The front will only sink slightly south
Friday and Friday night as both these features move east. Strong and
moist southwest flow will meanwhile ride over the frontal boundary,
and combined with right entrance region forcing from a strong upper
jet streak, will yield a high chance for rain over northern lower
michigan Friday, and then across central michigan Friday night as
the front sinks south. Well-mixed but shallow boundary layer in the
warm sector combined with abundant cloud cover lends some
uncertainty to the temperature forecast tomorrow. With 925-850mb
temps only rising to 9-12c, kept MAX temps in the 50s over the
northern thumb and saginaw valley, and low to mid 60s elsewhere.

The front, and rain along it, will sink into southern lower michigan
Saturday as strong high pressure develops over ontario and quebec.

It will make little progress beyond that however as the upper low
tracking into the ohio valley and southern great lakes stalls the
front or slides it back slightly northward Saturday night into
Sunday. MAX temperatures will vary widely across the area on
Saturday, ranging from the low 40s north of saginaw to around 60
near the ohio border.

Overall, the quasi-stationary frontal boundary is expected
to remain over southeast michigan through the weekend, leading to a
prolonged period of wet weather.

As weakening low pressure approaches southeast michigan on Sunday
rain will continue throughout the day as southerly flow advects
mild, moist air into the region. Following the passage of the low
across central lower michigan on Sunday night a brief interlude in
rain will occur on Monday. Temperatures during this period will
remain mild with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s both Sunday and
Monday. Rain chances then return Monday night and Tuesday as another
wave crosses the great lakes. High pressure builds in during the
middle of next week bringing drier conditions with temperatures near
normal for late march with highs in the lower 50s and lows in the
30s.

Marine...

modest southeasterly flow will veer to southwesterly by Friday
morning as a weak warm front lifts across the region. Highest speeds
will be across west lake erie and lake st clair, where gusts will
approach 25 kts. Given the offshore nature of the flow, waves are
expected to remain in the 2-3 foot range. A stronger surface low
will approach the lakes region Saturday, flipping the flow to the
northeast and freshening across lake huron. Winds will maintain a
southerly component over erie and st clair early Saturday before
slowly transitioning to easterly flow.

Hydrology...

widespread rainfall is expected across southeast michigan for most
of the upcoming weekend. Rainfall totals from Saturday through
Sunday are expected to approach or exceed an inch across the region.

Specifically totals in the 1-1.25 inch range are possible across the
saginaw valley with slightly lesser amounts elsewhere. Runoff from
the rainfall will increase flow rates and water levels in local
streams and rivers. However, widespread flooding is not expected.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Hlo/jd
marine... ... .Mann
hydrology... .Mann
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 18 mi73 min SSE 8 G 8.9 35°F 1021.3 hPa (-2.7)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi73 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 38°F
AGCM4 39 mi43 min 36°F 1020.4 hPa
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 50 mi43 min SE 11 G 14 40°F 1020 hPa32°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Last
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G19

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit, Detroit City Airport, MI10 mi20 minS 610.00 miOvercast38°F33°F83%1021.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI11 mi19 minSE 410.00 miLight Rain37°F32°F83%1020.3 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI12 mi20 minSSW 74.00 miRain39°F34°F82%1022.1 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI19 mi21 minSSE 47.00 miLight Rain37°F32°F84%1020.3 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI20 mi20 minS 32.50 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist38°F36°F93%1021 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI23 mi20 minno data6.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist35°F30°F85%1019.7 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmSE5SE9SE10SE12SE8SE8E9E11SE12S10SE8E10SE11SE9SE5SE5SE5S6
1 day agoN11
G20
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N7N8N6N11N13
G19
N14NE96N10
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N5CalmSE9E5SE6SE5E8E4E5S3S3
2 days agoNW3W3W3NW3CalmCalmSW3W4SW4W7W12
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G25

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.