Friday, November17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dearborn, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 5:10PM Friday November 17, 2017 7:52 PM EST (00:52 UTC) Moonrise 6:20AMMoonset 5:09PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0053.000000t0000z-171008t0415z/ 1125 Pm Edt Sat Oct 7 2017
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi... The Thunderstorms have moved out and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4185 8345 4235 8304 4237 8299 4236 8293 4231 8307 4224 8313 4216 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4177 8336 time...mot...loc 0324z 222deg 57kt 4256 8295 4227 8289 4208 8292
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201710080334;;532427 FZUS73 KDTX 080325 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1125 PM EDT SAT OCT 7 2017 LCZ423-LEZ444-080334-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dearborn, MI
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location: 42.38, -83.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 172314
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
614 pm est Fri nov 17 2017

Aviation
Increasing moisture transport within a strengthening low level
southerly wind field will result in widespread showers overspreading
the terminals in the 01 to 03z time frame. Ceilings will initially
beVFR given the dry air overnight. The influx of low level moisture
will however result in rapid lowering of ceilings heights during the
overnight to ifr (perhaps lifr). Elevated instability will also be
transported across SE mi overnight. With thunderstorms already
spreading across northern illinois, there appears a reasonably high
enough probability for thunder to carry a tempo group in the tafs
(beginning at or shortly after 05z). The strengthening low level
wind fields (40-50 knots) at 2k ft will also support a brief window
for low level wind shear late this evening into the early portion of
the overnight.

The region of heavier showers should actually exit east of the
terminals around or shortly after 08z. Light rain or drizzle will
then affect the region through daybreak before another surge of
heavier showers arrives later in the morning. An additional influx
of low level moisture will likely support fairly extensive lifr
and or vlifr CIGS vsby during a portion of the day Friday.

For dtw... Upstream radar and recent model solutions suggest the best
time period for thunder will around 06z through roughly 08z. With
these heavier showers will be a rapid lowering in ceilings heights.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 ft or less overnight through Saturday
evening.

* moderate in thunderstorms impacting the airspace tonight.

* low in ceilings and or visibilities below 200 ft and or 1 2 miles
Saturday morning.

* moderate in crosswind thresholds being exceeded Saturday evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 402 pm est Fri nov 17 2017
discussion...

main focus for this forecast will be the unsettled weather for the
weekend in the form of increased rainfall and gusty winds. An upper
trough exiting the rockies and tracking across the central plains
this evening. This will begin advecting moist air into lower
michigan evidenced in the 700mb theta-e field as a cold front dips
south across the western great lakes. This front will be help drive
precipitation tonight as the LLJ kicks in and provides some deeper
forcing. The front will eventually stall out across lower michigan
as the surface low pressure system becomes more organized and gains
strength on Saturday while the aforementioned upper trough begins to
phase with another upper trough diving southeast across ontario. The
low pressure system will move along this stalled boundary from
northern illinois through southeast michigan. All of michigan will be
under the influence of the left exit region of the 140 knot southern
stream jet and the right entrance region of the departing upper jet.

Forcing and deep ascent with this is system will lead to moderate
rainfall through Saturday night with pwats reaching over an inch
across far southeast michigan. A chance for thunderstorms exists with
this system based on the track of the surface low. An area of
convective instability within the warm sector will be enough to
produce some thunderstorms. The track of the low has come into more
alignment with the NAM being the only outlier keeping it further
south. The others have it tracking a little north of the state line.

Believe chances are still good enough to leave a slight mention of
thunder in the forecast for the further southeast portions of the
cwa.

The low pressure system will continue to deepen as it moves
northeastward into the eastern great lakes by tomorrow evening. The
timing of how quickly the moisture exits and the cold air arrives in
the wake of this system will cause a transition from rain to a
period of a rain snow mix tomorrow night for areas mainly north of m-
59. Expect the coldest air aloft to lag behind just enough that it
will be difficult to see any snowfall accumulate from this system.

Temperatures near the surface look to remain warm enough as the bulk
of the precipitation exits. The deepening low will also increase the
pressure gradient resulting in strong wind gusts late Saturday
afternoon through Sunday morning. Wind gusts around 30-40 mph
will be possible as strong winds above the surface should be able
to mix down.

Temperatures at 850 mb will drop to around 10-11 degrees c by Sunday
afternoon. High temperatures will only come up a few degrees from
the morning lows and top out in the low to mid 30s under mostly
cloudy conditions. The cold air advection under stout northwest flow
will result in the potential for scattered snow showers throughout
the day on Sunday aided by the instability across the warmer
great lake waters.

Ridging translating east across the region early next week will
yield dry, milder conditions as highs top out in the mid 40s on
Monday. Low pressure moving eastward across northern ontario on
Tuesday will pull a cold front through the region late Tuesday.

Ahead of the front, increasing southerly winds will boost temps
close to 50 Tuesday afternoon. A few showers will be possible across
the thumb with the frontal passage, but overall a dry frontal
passage is expected with the bulk of forcing staying well north of
the region. A colder air mass with 850-mb temps falling below -10 c
will then overspread the region Tuesday night into Wednesday as
upper troughing sets up through late next week. Highs will be
noticeably colder with readings in the 30s for both Wednesday and
Thursday. However high pressure building in from the west will keep
dry, calm conditions in place through Thursday.

Marine...

wind will be the primary marine weather concern tonight through the
weekend highlighted by high end gales on lake huron Saturday night.

Moderate southerly wind will continue tonight ahead of the
responsible low pressure system organizing over the plains. Small
craft advisories continue for the lake huron shoreline where waves
will be elevated due to an onshore wind component there. The gales
are expected to develop as the plains low pressure moves into lower
michigan Saturday on a track near the west end of lake erie. It will
then strengthen considerably over lake ontario Saturday night and
produce strong northerly gales over lake huron where gusts near 45
knots will be possible producing significant waves of 10-14 feet and
max waves around 20 feet over the south third of the lake. Gales
will be lower end intensity over marine areas closer to land such as
inner saginaw bay, lake st clair, and the michigan waters of lake
erie. Gale warnings are now in effect for all marine areas through
Sunday. The system will otherwise produce widespread rain showers
tonight through Saturday and possibly a rain snow mix before ending
Saturday night.

Hydrology...

moderate rain tonight through Saturday will occur in two rounds late
tonight and Saturday afternoon. Widespread rainfall in the 0.25 to
0.5 inch range tonight will be focused mainly in the 10 pm to 4 am
time period. Totals could approach 0.75 inch from the detroit area
to the ohio border where a thunderstorm will also be possible. The
second round will again produce widespread 0.25 to 0.5 inch totals
Saturday afternoon and totals around 1 inch from the detroit area to
the ohio border before diminishing Saturday evening. Storm total
rainfall in the 1 to 2 inch range will be capable of minor urban
flooding and moderate rises in area rivers and streams, especially
in the metro area and surrounding suburbs.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 3 pm Saturday to 7 pm est Sunday for lhz361>363-
462>464.

Gale warning from 7 pm Saturday to 10 am est Sunday for lhz421-
441>443.

Small craft advisory until 4 am est Saturday for lhz441>443.

Gale warning from 7 pm Saturday to 7 am est Sunday for lhz422.

Lake st clair... Gale warning from 7 pm Saturday to 10 am est Sunday for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Gale warning from 7 pm Saturday to 10 am est Sunday for lez444.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Aa jd
marine... ... .Bt
hydrology... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 18 mi53 min SSE 7 G 11 41°F 1013.9 hPa (-3.4)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi53 min SSE 13 G 14 44°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI10 mi60 minSSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy41°F33°F73%1014.2 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI11 mi58 minSSE 810.00 miOvercast43°F33°F69%1013.5 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI12 mi60 minSSE 710.00 miOvercast42°F34°F73%1014 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI19 mi61 minSSE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F35°F75%1013.5 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI20 mi60 minSSE 910.00 miMostly Cloudy42°F34°F73%1013.4 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI23 mi60 minSSE 1210.00 miOvercast39°F33°F79%1013 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8N9N7N7N6NE4CalmNE5CalmNE5E4NE5E4E6SE7S6S8S12S15
G20
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1 day agoSW12SW13
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2 days agoS5SE6S4S4S5S6S10S9S10S10S10S8S8S11S12
G19
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G20
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G19
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SW11

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.