Wednesday, September26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dearborn, MI

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 7:23PM Wednesday September 26, 2018 1:00 AM EDT (05:00 UTC) Moonrise 7:36PMMoonset 7:44AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0039.000000t0000z-180926t0130z/ 925 Pm Edt Tue Sep 25 2018
.the special marine warning will expire at 930 pm edt... The affected areas were... Detroit river... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the warned area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4203 8317 4203 8319 4206 8318 4208 8320 4219 8315 4213 8317 4209 8317 4210 8315 4208 8316 4209 8315 4213 8314 4220 8315 4221 8313 4213 8312 4205 8315 4201 8314 time...mot...loc 0125z 244deg 23kt 4217 8298
LCZ423 Expires:201809260135;;214400 FZUS73 KDTX 260125 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 925 PM EDT TUE SEP 25 2018 LCZ423-260135-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dearborn, MI
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location: 42.38, -83.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 260435
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1235 am edt Wed sep 26 2018

Aviation
Cold front on track to lift across the region during the early
morning period. Diminishing window in advance of this boundary for
additional shower and thunderstorm development, albeit within an
increasingly stable environment. Frontal passage centered 08z-10z,
accompanied by an increase in MVFR stratus and a wind shift to
westerly. The westerly winds will strengthen and turn gusty through
the morning period under modest cold air advection. Gusts to 20
knots or slightly greater expected into the afternoon. A period of
moderate mixing will lift ceilings intoVFR with a general reduction
cloud coverage this afternoon. Clear skies with diminishing westerly
winds tonight. Fog potential Thursday morning appears limited by
continued light westerly gradient and a drying low level
environment.

For dtw... The cold front will advance across metro between 09z and
10z, veering the winds to the west. Small potential remains for
thunderstorm development in advance of this front. Post-frontal
westerly winds will turn gusty Wednesday morning. Potential does
exist for gusts to briefly reach crosswind thresholds.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceiling AOB 5000 ft through Wednesday morning. Moderate
Wednesday afternoon.

* low confidence that westerly winds will exceed crosswind
thresholds on Wednesday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 403 pm edt Tue sep 25 2018
discussion...

severe weather potential for late afternoon through tonight remains
the primary focus for the afternoon forecast package. The overall
scenario continues to be strongly conditional on adequate recovery
of instability which remains possible but with low confidence. The
bottom line is that hourly monitoring of instability trends will be
required to continually assess severe weather potential or the lack
thereof. That being said, instability is about the only element
missing as large scale support and a strong wind field otherwise are
more than adequate to support and or sustain organized convection.

Showers and ordinary thunderstorms that moved in from indiana and nw
ohio continue to fade during mid afternoon while cloud debris further
inhibits daytime heating over SE michigan. This sets up target areas
for new development over SW lower michigan moving eastward from the
lee of lake michigan, and over illinois and western indiana moving
toward the ohio border region of SE michigan later in the evening.

Expect this would be more discrete convection occuring ahead of the
surviving portion of the iowa MCS that would approach SE michigan
shortly after midnight if adequate downstream instability can be
maintained.

Mid afternoon hourly mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPE rising slowly
from values mostly less than 1000 j kg across the mid mississippi
valley into lower michigan. This is expected to reach the 1000-1500
j kg range during the 21-00z time period as a corridor of steeper
mid level lapse rates moves into lower michigan from the midwest.

Rap projections indicate 700-500 mb lapse rates in the 7.0-7.5 c km
range along the leading edge of height falls ahead of the advancing
upper level trough. The associated cooling aloft could be enough to
maintain MLCAPE near 1500 j kg well into the night along and shortly
ahead of the cold front and should be considered the target range to
hold for severe potential. It also suggests an advective component of
instability into SE michigan is possible which would be required for
new storm development and to maintain storms moving into our area
from the west. Other than concerns for instability trends, discrete
convection that is able to develop ahead of the midwest MCS will be
within a strong wind profile having both some low level curvature and
some mid level length. Rap and NAM sounding projections advertise
0-3 km SRH exceeding 150 m2 s2 and 0-6 km bulk shear exceeding 40
knots, 0-1 km helicity also exceeds 100 m2 s2 with 0-3 km cape
exceeding 150 j kg with cloud base on the low side of 3000 ft. These
are all thresholds for supercell characteristics and for
tornadogenesis, even in low topped convection. This again is strongly
conditional on development of adequate instability, which is in
doubt, but combined with the other elements of the storm environment
remains worthy of the slight risk outlook. Tornado and small hail
potential would be secondary to damaging wind if the upstream MCS can
hold together.

The cold front with this system exits quickly around sunrise
Wednesday followed by dry and cooler mid week conditions leading into
the extended period characterized by periodic shortwaves ushering
in transient shots of cooler temps and attendant opportunities for
showers. This will occur within a slowly retrograding background
state most evident by the motion of the 591dm high centered near
florida this Friday potentially migrating toward western texas after
day 7, a scenario that would offer a better opportunity for sustained
longwave troughing locally. In the meantime, a steady stream of
pacific energy will keep heights at bay over the great lakes as this
evolution unfolds. Chance of rain accompanying Friday's FROPA will be
followed by highs at least 10 degrees below normal for the weekend.

A brief warmup will then be tempered by another chance for rain under
similar circumstances early next week.

Marine...

a cold front will track through the region tonight which will prompt
a notable change in conditions over the lakes. Currently, southerly
winds are ushering in a warm and moist airmass which will result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms into the overnight. Winds will
quickly flip around to the northwest late tonight while
strengthening as colder air filters in behind the front. The
strongest winds remain across the northern lake huron basin where
gusts will reach around 30 knots Wednesday morning into the
afternoon hours. Though a few gusts to gale force are possible, it's
appears to be over a very short window so we will continue to hold
off on any gale headlines. These elevated northerly winds will build
wave heights along a portion of the lake huron shoreline prompting a
small craft advisory. Northwest winds diminish late Wednesday and
Wednesday night as high pressure builds into the region. Winds
become southwesterly and strengthen again Thursday in advance of the
next cold front.

Hydrology...

potential exists for scattered showers and thunderstorms this
evening into tonight ahead of a cold front that will sweep through
the region early Wednesday morning. Rainfall totals will average
around one third of an inch, although any thunderstorm activity
could bring very localized higher amounts.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 6 am this morning to 4 pm edt this
afternoon for lhz421-441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... Bt jvc
marine... ... .Drk
hydrology... .Drk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 18 mi20 min SSW 16 G 21 72°F 1009.8 hPa
45147 - Lake St Clair 28 mi60 min SW 14 G 16 69°F 66°F1 ft1009.8 hPa (-0.5)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi60 min SSW 16 G 17 73°F
AGCM4 39 mi30 min 70°F 66°F1009.9 hPa
45165 47 mi20 min SSW 14 G 16 73°F 70°F1 ft70°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 50 mi30 min SW 8.9 G 13 74°F 1011.7 hPa68°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI10 mi67 minSSW 1210.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F69°F91%1009.6 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI11 mi65 minSSW 11 G 1810.00 miOvercast70°F67°F90%1010.2 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI12 mi67 minSSW 109.00 miOvercast72°F68°F87%1010.2 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI19 mi65 minSW 10 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F69°F91%1010.8 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI20 mi67 minSSW 1410.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F70°F90%1009.9 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI23 mi67 minSSW 10 G 1710.00 miOvercast71°F68°F90%1008 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS11S8S8S8S6S7SW6S7S7CalmSW7S8S8SW5S10S7S8S5S10CalmW7W6SW10SW12
1 day agoNE5E3NE4E5NE5NE4NE4E6E7SE10SE13
G20
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SE11SE10SE7SE6SE8SE9SE8SE9SE7S7
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5N4N4NE6E7E73E4SE8E6E6SE4E4E4NE4NE6NE6NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.