Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dearborn, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 9:14PM Thursday June 21, 2018 4:22 AM EDT (08:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:51PMMoonset 1:20AM Illumination 55% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 1026 pm edt Mon jun 18 2018 a marine weather statement has been issued for the following areas... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 1025 pm edt, doppler radar indicated strong Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to up 30 knots. These Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 30 nm west of wyandotte to near lake erie metropark harbor, moving east at 25 knots. Strong Thunderstorms will be near, Monroe harbor around 1030 pm edt. Detroit river light around 1040 pm edt. Elizabeth park marina, grosse ile and gibraltar around 1140 pm edt. Other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include gibraltar. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Mariners can expect gusty winds up to 30 knots, locally higher waves, and lightning strikes. Boaters should seek safe harbor immediately until these storms pass. && lat...lon 4189 8338 4188 8334 4194 8331 4192 8327 4197 8325 4202 8318 4208 8320 4219 8315 4218 8315 4213 8317 4208 8316 4224 8314 4230 8309 4236 8297 4234 8295 4229 8309 4217 8313 4203 8315 4196 8311 4182 8330 LCZ423 Expires:201806190400;;756612 FZUS73 KDTX 190226 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1026 PM EDT MON JUN 18 2018 LCZ423-LEZ444-190400-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dearborn, MI
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location: 42.38, -83.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 210745
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
345 am edt Thu jun 21 2018

Discussion
Quiet weather today as high pressure sliding from ontario to quebec
builds southward into the great lakes. Northeast flow will keep a
cool feed of air into southeast mi today which combined with early
day Sun and 850mb temps around 13c should lead to high temps
reaching into the mid to upper 70s, though a few 80s can't be ruled
out. Gusty conditions across the tri-cities and thumb off the lake
will act to suppress temps keeping highs only around 70. These gusty
onshore winds to around 25 knots will cause water levels to rise
which may lead to lakeshore flooding along bay county, hence an
advisory has been issued.

Attention then turns to an upper level closed low, and surface
reflection, entering the midwest which will track into the ohio
valley by Friday. The lead leaf of moisture along the occluded warm
front will lift toward the southern mi border late Thursday night.

The persistent ridge to the north will suppress the advancement of
the precip initially, but by Friday morning the ridge will have
slide east concurrent with peak divergence aloft which should
release the isentropic slope farther north into SE mi. Decent
moisture advection ahead of the low will bring pwats to around 1.7
inches with saturation throughout the column. Instability is still
not too great, but models suggest up to a couple hundred j kg of
mucape, with weak mid level lapse rates, and showalter index just
below zero at times. This should be enough to support widespread
showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Though the upper level wave will be weakening Friday night, becoming
an open wave, the broad lift from the stacked low passing right
overhead will keep precip chances going through the night and into
Saturday. Showers will taper off Saturday night as the wave
continues east toward the atlantic coast. Models then bring a
northern stream trough and cold front down through the area on
Sunday. Utilizing a residual trailing moisture trough from the
exiting wave, this trough may be able to produce another round of
showers Sunday afternoon.

High pressure then dives southward behind this trough Sunday night
which will hold over the region through mid week. Meanwhile, an
amplified upper level ridge will slide east into the great lakes
ahead of the next upper low. This will keep the region dry through
about Wednesday, which bringing heat back to the area. After a
length period of temps mostly in the 70s through the weekend, highs
look to reach back into the mid to upper 80s as strong southwest
flow aides pulls warm air out of the plains. Next chance of
precipitation will Wednesday Thursday with this next upper level
trough sliding through the region.

Marine
Prevailing onshore easterly flow will remain in place through the
end of the week. Wave heights will be elevated at times through
Friday. A small craft advisory remains in effect for increased wave
action in saginaw bay and the exposed nearshore waters of the thumb
today. Weak thunderstorm chances will exist on Saturday and the wind
direction will turn southerly ahead of an approaching low pressure
system.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1153 pm edt Wed jun 20 2018
aviation...

se michigan is in between a weak front over the northern great lakes
and a stronger front over the ohio valley. Weather associated with
the ohio valley system remains west and south of the terminal
corridor through the day with the exception of high cloud debris.

There remains minimal potential for some MVFR ground fog around
sunrise, however both MOS and model soundings hold off on
restriction which is in line with the latest observations. The
reinforcing cold front settling through the region during the day is
expected to make a dry passage through lower michigan with only
patches of borderlineVFR MVFR stratocu. There will be an uptick in
east to northeast wind speed into the 10-15 knot range as high
clouds continue to thicken during mid to late afternoon.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for miz048.

Beach hazards statement from 10 am edt this morning through this
evening for miz049.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 10 am this morning to 8 pm edt this
evening for lhz421-422-441.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Cb
aviation... ..Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 18 mi83 min NNW 1 G 4.1 64°F 1011.5 hPa (-0.7)
45147 - Lake St Clair 28 mi83 min NE 7.8 G 7.8 64°F 66°F1010.4 hPa (-0.7)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi43 min N 1.9 G 2.9 67°F
AGCM4 39 mi53 min 56°F 1011 hPa
45165 47 mi33 min N 1.9 G 3.9 69°F 74°F1 ft58°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 50 mi53 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 64°F 1010.9 hPa61°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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1 day
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G16
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W6
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G31
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N5
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G12
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G9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI10 mi30 minN 07.00 miFair61°F57°F87%1011.1 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI11 mi28 minN 010.00 miFair60°F57°F90%1011.8 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI12 mi30 minN 05.00 miMostly Cloudy with Haze62°F55°F80%1011.1 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI19 mi28 minN 07.00 miFair61°F59°F96%1010.8 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI20 mi30 minN 08.00 miFair61°F57°F87%1010.9 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI23 mi30 minN 03.00 miFog/Mist58°F57°F97%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5N4NE4NE6NE6E4NE5E5NE5NE4E6NE5E6E7E4E5E4CalmCalmN3CalmCalmN3Calm
1 day agoN7N6N7NE9NE11E10E10E10E6E5CalmNE4SE5SE5SE4E3E4E9NE6E7NE8NE8NE5N4
2 days agoSW9SW10SW9W8W10
G19
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G25
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G21
N11N7N9N12SE8NE7N5N7N8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.