Tuesday, June25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dearborn, MI

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Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 9:15PM Tuesday June 25, 2019 10:15 PM EDT (02:15 UTC) Moonrise 12:50AMMoonset 12:47PM Illumination 39% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 Expires:201906250130;;027622 Fzus73 Kdtx 250048 Mwsdtx Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 848 Pm Edt Mon Jun 24 2019 Lcz422-423-460-lez444-250130- 848 Pm Edt Mon Jun 24 2019
.line of showers containing gusty winds approaching the waters... The areas affected include... St. Clair river... Lake st. Clair... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... At 846 pm edt, doppler radar indicated a line of showers, capable of producing wind gusts to up 25 knots. These showers were located along a line extending from 13 nm west of new baltimore to near wyandotte to bolles harbor of refuge, moving east at 20 knots. Locations impacted through 930 pm include... Grosse ile, elizabeth park marina, gibraltar, estral beach, bolles harbor of refuge, woodland beach, stony point, mt clemens harbor of refuge, Monroe harbor, st clair flats old channel light, detroit river light, belle isle, the ambassador bridge, new baltimore, grosse pointe, st. Clair shores, luna pier, wyandotte, lake erie metropark harbor and algonac. Lat...lon 4179 8347 4195 8337 4197 8328 4226 8317 4233 8311 4239 8295 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4264 8256 4269 8254 4269 8250 4261 8252 4255 8259 4254 8266 4237 8283 4229 8310 4205 8315 4196 8311 4175 8337
LCZ423


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dearborn, MI
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location: 42.38, -83.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 252337
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
737 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019

Aviation
Convective vorticity maximum anchored within deeper column warm air
advection push is sustaining a smaller thunderstorm complex over
portions of far western lower michigan. Initial warm advection has
resulted in a few convective towers lifting INVOF lansing. Timed a
prevailing MVFR shower group with vcts for the TAF sites mainly
between 01-03z. Limiting factors for activity this evening will be
low mixed layer instability and anticyclonic curvature to low level
flow. Near surface instability gradient cold front will then settle
south of lower michigan tonight. Subsidence is preferred on Wednesday
with deep midlevel anticyclonic flow aloft, thus quiet aviation
weather.

For dtw... Prevailing MVFR showers with vicinity thunderstorms
between 01-03z this evening. Brief heavy rain and wind gust to 40
mph with strongest thunderstorm activity possible.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* moderate for thunderstorms between 01-03z.

* medium for cig to 5000 ft agl this evening..

Prev discussion
Issued at 358 pm edt Tue jun 25 2019
discussion...

uniform westerly flow trailing yesterday's cold front left lower
humidity over SE michigan today. This combined with breezy
conditions and mostly sunny sky is producing a pleasant day across
the region as high temperatures top out in the upper 70s and lower
80s.

Low level wind backs slightly tonight and directs modest moisture
return ahead of the next weak cold front moving across the midwest.

The front gets pushed eastward by the short wave riding along the
south flank of the central canadian upper level trough and preceded
by a well defined MCV moving through southern wi and northern il.

Convective potential associated with these features is the primary
forecast concern for tonight as the W SW flow draws some instability
into the central great lakes. The MCV presents the first chance for
activity in our area tonight as it initiated and continues to
organize pockets of surface based convection. This activity is
capable of reaching our area during the evening with some modest
strength keeping in mind MLCAPE effectiveness lingers past peak
heating this time of year. That being said, convective intensity
still has diurnal dependency as evidenced by the wide range of
mlcape projections offered in cam output. Surface analysis showing a
return of lower 60s dewpoint ahead of the MCV supports estimates
closer to 1000 j kg across southern lower michigan at 00z. This is
expected to sustain at least scattered coverage of showers and
thunderstorms but which are past peak intensity as they reach se
michigan and then decrease weaken from there to the east toward
midnight as the diurnal trend more fully plays out.

Not far behind and a little farther north is the larger scale short
wave more directly involved in progression of the surface front.

Regional scale models indicate a dull looking mid level moisture
axis extending SW to NE along and ahead of the front from which
additional showers and ordinary thunderstorms are possible
overnight. The moisture axis also marks a plume of lapse rate near
6.5 c km and 850 mb LI around -2 c on which the southern fringes of
the short wave can add some forcing during a small time window
overnight before the wave exits eastward before sunrise.

Neutral forcing to weak subsidence trailing the short wave in more
zonal flow aloft brings dry conditions to start Wednesday and we
begin a transition to more of a mid summer pattern. Convective
trends have low predictability due to upstream MCS activity and
associated MCV influence, the depiction of which in nwp will change
with each forecast cycle. What can be said with a little more
confidence is regarding the front moving through late tonight and
early Wednesday that stalls near the ohio border for the mid to late
week period. This is a good approximation for the position of the
instability gradient and the track of any organized storms Wednesday
night through Thursday.

Warm and humid summertime airmass to reside over the great lakes
through the extended period which will bring several rain and
thunderstorm chances late this week and again early next week. To
start, a weak shortwave and associated weak cold front will travel
across michigan throughout Friday which will bring the chance for
showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. Saturday will again
bring the chance for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms
during the afternoon and evening period, as daytime heating erodes a
low-level cap. A high pressure system is then forecasted to move
south from ontario Sunday afternoon and will center over the great
lakes by Monday morning, which will greatly diminish rain shower and
thunderstorm chances Sunday afternoon into at least Monday morning.

Anticyclonic flow from the approaching high pressure system will
also act to push a cold front through at least the thumb region,
which will diminish temperatures slightly across SE mi down into the
lower-80s to even the upper-70s (mid to upper-70s over the thumb).

Prior to the passage of the front, forecasted highs are in the low
to mid-80s across SE mi, with upper-80s possible across across the
urban heat island metro area. Flow to turn more zonal to start early
next week which will return daytime highs back into the mid to upper-
80s and will bring the chance for showers and storms Monday into
Tuesday.

Marine...

winds across the central great lakes waterways will remain gusty
until this evening. W wsw sustained winds will drop to around 10
knots by 00z, gusting to less than 15 knots overnight. A stable
marine layer has helped offset stronger winds, keeping wave heights
below 3 feet with an amplitude reduction expected overnight. The
small craft advisory over saginaw bay has been allowed to expire
before 20z as winds should remain weaker than 20 knots, diminishing
further this evening ahead of thunderstorms. An evolving convective
complex is currently working eastward across lake michigan bringing
a chance for lightning and locally gusty winds after midnight.

Chances diminish after 09z before additional thunderstorm activity
may diurnally develop on Thursday and Friday. Warm and light
offshore flow is expected into the weekend becoming more variable on
Saturday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Bt tf
marine... ... .Kk
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 18 mi76 min SW 8 G 12 81°F 1012.2 hPa (+0.7)
45147 - Lake St Clair 28 mi76 min WSW 7.8 G 7.8 71°F 64°F1 ft1011.2 hPa (+0.1)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 38 mi76 min SW 12 G 13 77°F
AGCM4 39 mi46 min 73°F 60°F1012 hPa
45165 47 mi16 min SW 7.8 G 9.7 76°F 70°F1 ft61°F
TWCO1 47 mi26 min WSW 9.9 G 12 1007.4 hPa
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 50 mi46 min WSW 5.1 G 8.9 80°F 1013.4 hPa57°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI10 mi23 minWSW 910.00 miFair80°F59°F49%1012.1 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI11 mi21 minSSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F53°F41%1013.2 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI12 mi23 minSW 1110.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F59°F50%1012.4 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI19 mi20 minSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F60°F57%1012.9 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI20 mi23 minSW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy80°F61°F52%1012.1 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI23 mi23 minS 310.00 miOvercast72°F62°F71%1011.8 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSE9SE5SE7SE4E3SE3E6S5S5S5S7S9SW10SW10S7S10SW10SW14
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2 days agoE3SE3NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE5SE4SE4SE5S76SE5S8S9SE8SE7S5SE7SE6SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.