Thursday, May25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gurnee, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:18PM Thursday May 25, 2017 1:22 PM CDT (18:22 UTC) Moonrise 5:35AMMoonset 8:09PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 946 Am Cdt Thu May 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm cdt this afternoon...
Rest of today..North winds 15 to 20 kt. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 ft occasionally to 7 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft after midnight.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 kt. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 kt. Chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:201705252130;;186073 FZUS53 KLOT 251446 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 946 AM CDT THU MAY 25 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN WAVES ARE PROVIDED AS A RANGE OF SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS, WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVES, ALONG WITH THE AVERAGE HEIGHT OF THE HIGHEST 10 PERCENT OF THE WAVES WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENCOUNTERED. LMZ740>742-252130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gurnee, IL
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location: 42.38, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 251732
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1232 pm cdt Thu may 25 2017

Short term
307 am cdt
through Friday...

trough and upper low responsible for the cool and unsettled
weather this week is finally moving out of the area. Should see
cloudiness gradually decreasing through the day as heights rise
and subsidence and mixing gradually take their toll. The addition
of some sunshine and heart of the cold pool moving east should
allow temps to rebound nicely toward, if not into, the lower 70s
today. Gradient favors north winds which should allow the lake to
quickly exert its influence and pop a lake breeze with temps
stead slowly falling through the 50s near the lake this afternoon.

As our current upper low moves out into the atlantic maritimes the
upper flow across the CONUS should quickly flatten out, becoming
zonal for a time Friday into Saturday. The zonal flow means very
low amplitude waves which guidance continue to struggle with
leading to lower than average forecast confidence wrt precip
chances. The NAM and GFS continue to bring a shortwave through
Friday afternoon with associated chances of showers and perhaps a
storm, though both models have backed off on QPF compared to runs
last night. The ECMWF hints at a weak ripple, but QPF in the ecmwf
is minimal. Maintained chance pops for Friday, but thinking that
if any precip that does occur wouldn't be particularly impactful
or long lasting.

- izzi

Long term
307 am cdt
Friday night through Wednesday...

over the weekend, look for a transition from a zonal flow to
another long wave trough and associated closed low digging south
into the great lakes. One potentially more significant shortwave
looks to get squeezed eastward through the zonal flow ahead of the
digging trough on Saturday. This should result in significant
amount of convection near and just north of the primary baroclinic
zone which is forecast to be well to our south. There is a high
likelihood that one of more mcvs could become the dominant
players in precip placement Saturday afternoon through Saturday
night, which could ultimately keep the majority of the precip to
our south. Assuming the mvcs don't overwhelm the synoptic
shortwave and cut off northward moisture transport into our area,
then one of our better precip threats this weekend looks to be sat
night as synoptic S W passes across the region.

Sunday looks like to be dry and mild with probably enough of a
westerly gradient to preclude any lake cooling on the il side. As
it looks now, Monday should start dry, but with upper low and
associated cold pool aloft digging south into the area it looks
like a decent shot of diurnally driven convection in the area
Monday afternoon into the early evening. Doesn't look like a
wash-out, but Monday afternoon looks like it could be the weekend
day with the best chance of daytime rainfall.

Because of differences in models in handling convectively enhanced
features, resulting in different timing and tracks of shortwaves,
blended model guidance paints pops over the area much of the
weekend. In the morning weather story, plan to message the weekend
forecast in a manner that stressed the majority of the weekend
with be dry despite some the threat of rain looming most of the
time.

Heading into Tuesday and Wednesday look for a continuation of
somewhat below average temperatures and some small chances of
afternoon evening showers and perhaps a storm as chilly upper
trough looks to remain anchored over the region.

- izzi

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

stratus clouds associated with low pressure over the in oh border
continue to slowly lift and scatter out through the afternoon today.

Visible satellite imagery shows decent clearing over lake michigan
which should expand over land east to west. Expect the trend ofVFR
to spread across the terminals in the next couple hours. There is a
weak lake breeze visible via surface observation as well as
terminal doppler radar. As a result, a slight shift to nne winds
near 10kt will occur 20-21z today. As low pressure departs further
to the east this evening, improving conditions will result. High
pressure overhead tonight will lead to variable winds, but there
is not much of a fog threat as dewpoint temps remain well below
surface temps. There is a small chance for rain or thunderstorms
Friday afternoon evening which will be updated in future
forecasts.

Mm

Marine
311 am cdt
low pressure continues to be situated to the southeast of the
lake this morning, while northerly winds are occurring over much
of the lake. Although slightly lower over the north half half,
speeds are generally in the 15 to 25 kt range. Do also think there
are likely gusts to 30 kt also still occurring, mainly over the
south half. These persistent stronger winds have allowed waves to
build across the south half, with conditions hazardous for small
craft in place. Expect these similar winds to persist for most of
the morning, even possible gusts up to 30 kt. Hazardous conditions
will also continue, and likely persist slightly longer today and
this evening. Then a diminishing trend is expected this afternoon
as this low finally departs to the east and a weaker pattern over
the lake settles in. This diminishing trend will then continue
tonight into Friday as high pressure moves across the region.

Rodriguez

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Beach hazards statement... Ilz006-ilz014 until 7 pm Thursday.

In... Beach hazards statement... Inz001-inz002 until 10 pm Thursday.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Il nearshore waters until 4 pm Thursday.

Small craft advisory... In nearshore waters until 10 pm Thursday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 7 mi42 min NNE 17 G 21 54°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 16 mi82 min N 17 G 19 55°F 1003.7 hPa (+0.3)
45174 23 mi42 min 16 G 19 50°F 51°F4 ft48°F
FSTI2 32 mi142 min N 22 54°F
OKSI2 36 mi142 min NNE 8.9 55°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 38 mi52 min N 16 G 18 53°F 50°F
CNII2 40 mi37 min N 11 G 17 58°F
JAKI2 46 mi142 min NNE 14 56°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 46 mi42 min N 14 G 16 56°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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N13
G17
N13
G19
NW14
G20
N11
G17
NW13
G18
NW11
G18
NW11
G18
NW12
G15
NW14
G20
NW13
G20
NW10
G16
NW11
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NW11
G21
NW12
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NW10
G16
NW12
G21
NW13
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NW8
G17
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G12
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N12
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NW14
G19
1 day
ago
E6
NE4
NE6
NW3
NW1
G4
NE6
N2
N3
G6
N5
N4
G7
N1
N3
NW2
G5
N8
N8
G12
N10
G13
N9
G13
N9
G12
N8
N8
G14
N12
G16
N12
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G17
2 days
ago
S12
G16
SW12
G17
SW14
G19
S14
G17
SW10
G18
SW13
G19
SW9
G13
SW10
G14
SW9
G14
SW10
G15
S7
G10
SW6
G13
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G13
S6
G9
S6
G12
S8
G13
SW7
S8
G11
SW7
G13
SW6
G11
SW5
G8
S4
S4
NE6

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi27 minN 9 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F53°F68%1002.8 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI15 mi29 minN 10 G 1910.00 miPartly Cloudy66°F55°F68%1003.5 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi30 minN 710.00 miOvercast64°F55°F73%1003.6 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN15
G26
N13
G24
N17
G25
N11
G24
N13
G20
N12
G22
N11
G23
N9
G16
N8
G14
N9
G17
N7N7N6N5N7N6N7N7N8
G14
N8N9
G14
NW7N7
G17
N9
G17
1 day agoSE7SE4SE7S8SE6CalmCalmCalmE4NE4NE3NE3N7NE6N6NE5NE6N8N8
G16
N8N14
G21
N11
G18
N14
G24
N9
G20
2 days agoSW10
G19
3SW12
G18
SW7SW16
G24
SW19
G27
SW14
G25
SW14
G20
SW16
G22
SW14SW12SW5SW9SW6SW8SW53SW9
G14
SW11SW9
G15
SW9SW9S11SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.