Wednesday, September26, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gurnee, IL

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 6:42PM Wednesday September 26, 2018 12:14 AM CDT (05:14 UTC) Moonrise 7:55PMMoonset 8:04AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor-calumet Harbor To Gary- 955 Pm Cdt Tue Sep 25 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 20 to 25 kt. Patchy drizzle through midnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Wednesday..West winds 20 to 25 kt easing to 10 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 15 kt. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ740 Expires:201809261015;;217921 FZUS53 KLOT 260255 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 955 PM CDT Tue Sep 25 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>743-261015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gurnee, IL
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location: 42.38, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 260009 aaa
afdlot
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
709 pm cdt Tue sep 25 2018

Mesoscale discussion
705 pm cdt
storms had caught back up to the outflow as they were exiting cook
and will counties, with the updraft downdraft convergence zone
capable again of stronger winds prompting the svr warnings in far
northwest indiana. We did have a recent report of 60 mph winds in
portage. The most intense part of the quasi-linear line is about
to exit porter county. Further southwest, the line as a whole of
705 pm is generally not oriented the best for a more intense wind
or embedded tornado threat, however individual deeper updrafts are
capable of stronger winds and will have to watch any segments
that want to surge outward. Winds are more backed ahead of this
line too in newton and jasper counties albeit light in speed, so
will need to watch this multicell quasi-linear area as it clears
the CWA by 830 pm cdt or so.

Mtf

Short term
207 pm cdt
through tonight...

mainly a mesoscale discussion... Concerns center on thunderstorms
later this afternoon and evening. A severe thunderstorm watch has
been issued for a good portion of northern illinois.

Forcing and instability is still working its way east ahead of a
cold front across iowa. While isolated development is possible
ahead of the front, the majority of the forcing is tied to the
front itself. The corridor downstream of more active thunderstorms
across iowa is favorable for continued development or
intensification as we have been able to heat up a bit after
morning cloudiness. There is an 18z sounding out of the quad
cities, kdvn, has depicted some mixing out of the dewpoints which
is fairly representative of what has been occurring across
northeast illinois.

As far as hazards, the storms being on the front have largely
taken on a linear shape already this afternoon, with stronger
portions of the line depicting a decent wind signature on a few of
the storms. Therefore, damaging winds remains the primary concern.

Upstream in iowa, effective shear is 45-55 kt which is more than
sufficient for rotating storms, which has been observed by radar
and spotters in iowa. There is a closed surface low across iowa
that will spread northeast into wisconsin. This feature is likely
contributing to higher helicity values and will be the corridor
where if any tornadoes were to form, this would be area. This
corridor will shift into north central illinois and the i-39
corridor later this afternoon, and thus will be something to watch
for. As the low continues northeast, this threat becomes lower
farther east, but we do expect shear to increase as storms
approach our area given the approach of the positively tilted
trough. A severe thunderstorm watch was issued as damaging winds
do remain the main hazard, but the watch mentions possible
tornadoes as well. Mid level lapse rates suggest hail is not as
big of a concern, but certainly possible with any supercells.

Most of the thunderstorms will be confined to a several hour
period around the cold front. Expect gusty southwest winds to
around 20 kt ahead of the front. A few isolated widely scattered
showers or storms are possible by mid afternoon, but the main
window for severe storms will be late afternoon around the
rockford area, and 7-9 pm around the chicago area. The storms will
be arriving closer to chicago after peak heating, and thus
confidence on how strong severe storms will be closer to lake
michigan is lower. Certainly the forcing and shear will still be
sufficient. But thunderstorms should survive to the lake
regardless.

Behind the front winds will head to NW and gust into the middle
20s overnight, with lows falling into the 40s outside of chicago.

Kmd

Long term
322 pm cdt
Wednesday through Tuesday...

following tonight cold frontal passage expect a bit breezy, but
pleasant weather across the area for Wednesday as surface high
pressure settles over the lower missouri valley. Expect high
temperatures to get into the low to mid 60s areawide, with some
upper 60s possible south. Following a chilly Wednesday night, with
lows likely to fall into the lower 40s outside of chicago, expect
a bit warmer temperatures to move into the area for Thursday as
the winds turn southwest during the day. This warmer airmass on
Thursday should allow temperatures to top out around 70 degrees.

The weather pattern looks to become a bit more active and
significantly cooler again for Friday and Saturday as another
cold front drops over the area into Friday morning. Forecast
guidance continues to show a lower amplitude impulse shifting
into the region within the larger scale trough in place over the
north central CONUS late Friday. Given the sharpening baroclinic
zone that this feature would induce, it appears that a cool f-gen
driven band of rain could develop over the area sometime either
later Friday. Surface high pressure then looks to build over the
area later Friday night into Saturday. If skies end up clearing
out late Friday night, temperatures could fall into the 30s to
lower 40s outside of chicago. If temperatures are able to fall
into the 30s over north central il some patchy frost would not be
out of the question, but we will leave this mention out of the
forecast at this time. Temperatures on Saturday are likely to be
the coolest of the season, with highs possibly remaining in the
50s north of i-80, and in the lower 60s far south.

Medium range guidance is in decent agreement in reloading the
western u.S. Trough over the weekend and ejecting another system
out toward the great lakes region early next week. Current model
runs track this wave sufficiently far north to drag unseasonably
warm and moist air back north into the area for a time early next
week. Still a lot of time for this solution to change, so stay
tuned.

Kjb izzi

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

thunderstorms are passing through gyy at this time and will be
exiting toward 01-02z. Rain will be ending at ord and mdw soon as
well. The next concern is a wind shift to the northwest along with
an increase in gusts in the 20-25 kt range which will occur toward
mid evening. Ceilings will lower into the 010-015 range by mid
evening as well. Some intermittent ifr cannot be ruled out but
may stay just outside the terminals, though rfd has the best
chance for ifr. Skies do look to scatter late tonight and winds
will ease overnight. Expect scatteredVFR clouds with some
intermittent broken periods possible from late morning through
early afternoon Wednesday.

Mdb

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... Beach hazards statement... Inz002... 1 am Wednesday to 4 pm
Wednesday.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Winthrop harbor to gary in until 10 am
Wednesday.

Small craft advisory... Lmz744-lmz745... 10 pm Tuesday to 1 pm
Wednesday.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 7 mi35 min NW 12 G 16 62°F
45186 8 mi35 min NW 14 64°F 68°F1 ft
45187 11 mi35 min 62°F 66°F1 ft
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 16 mi75 min WNW 13 G 19 63°F 1012.5 hPa (+4.0)
45174 23 mi35 min WNW 14 G 18 65°F 68°F2 ft62°F
FSTI2 32 mi135 min W 12 65°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 38 mi45 min WNW 18 G 21 66°F 60°F
CNII2 40 mi30 min WNW 8 G 16 65°F 57°F
JAKI2 46 mi135 min NW 6 G 17 67°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 46 mi35 min WNW 14 G 18 59°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi20 minNW 810.00 miOvercast60°F55°F84%1012.3 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI15 mi22 minWNW 14 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F55°F87%1013.2 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi23 minNW 1010.00 miOvercast64°F55°F75%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3SW3CalmS3S3SW3S3SW4SW6SW5SW7S12S105S10SW7SW5SW6SW85NW5NW9
G15
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1 day agoSE9SE9SE6SE7SE8SE6SE6SE7SE7SE6SE6E10SE9SE8E9E7E6SE5SE5SE4S4S4S7Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmSW4CalmSE5E86E6E11E9NE8E7NE4CalmE4E4E6SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.