Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gurnee, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 8:33PM Thursday June 21, 2018 9:23 AM CDT (14:23 UTC) Moonrise 2:11PMMoonset 1:39AM Illumination 57% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor- 918 Am Cdt Thu Jun 21 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm cdt this evening through late Friday night...
Rest of today..Northeast winds 15 to 20 kt. Areas of fog, patchy dense. Periods of showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..Northeast winds 20 to 25 kt. Showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves building to 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 25 kt. Showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Friday night..North winds 10 to 20 kt. Chance of showers. Slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 3 to 5 ft after midnight.
LMZ740 Expires:201806212130;;882934 FZUS53 KLOT 211418 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 918 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ740>742-212130-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gurnee, IL
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location: 42.38, -87.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 211145
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
645 am cdt Thu jun 21 2018

Short term
330 am cdt
through Friday...

slow moving upper level low pressure in a relatively high
precipitable water environment will make for messy couple of days
for some areas across our region. Expect cool and wet conditions,
with areas under and closer to the low getting breaks showery
weather, and areas farther north potentially getting stuck in
extended periods of rain with embedded thunder. Heavy rain and
localized flooding appear the main concern, and with low flash
flood guidance due to wet grounds, flash flooding may become an
issue for some areas as well.

The 0z ilx sounding depicts the moist and relatively warm airmass,
with a 1.89" pwat and 13,500 ft freezing level. This is a good
environment for efficient warm rain processes. Instability does
look to remain a bit more tempered the next few days with all of
the cloud cover. But with even lower instability, embedded thunder
remains possible which will enhance the warm rain processes.

Certainly with more instability this becomes even more concerning.

The first wave will come through the area this morning into early
afternoon. These will certainly have heavy rain and maybe some
localized flooding potential, but this axis may be a bit more
progressive than what may be coming later tonight. Areas south of
i-80 may get in on some breaks today, and as such will
destabilize a bit more. As the upper low continues to shift east,
additional shortwaves will pinwheel ahead of the low. Pnt forecast
soundings depict up to 1000 j kg of CAPE and 25 kt of shear with
decent low level lapse rates supporting some localized stronger
wind gusts in our southern counties. Mid level lapse rates are
weaker, thus the severe coverage does not appear to be that large,
with instability dropping off farther north, but it appears that
some stronger storms will bear watching across west central il and
close to our area later this afternoon.

Tonight the upper low will build into south central il. This will
setup and easterly feed into the area, and therefore storms will
likely train over similar areas wherever the higher theta-e axis
on the back side of the system sets up. Model run accum qpf
certainly suggests many areas when all is said and done will see
in excess of an inch, with 3-4" totals not out of the question in
this setup. The challenge will be where this higher axis will be.

At this point areas along and north of chicago are favored. Gefs
plumes for ord have 1.2 to 4.5 inches of QPF indicating the
potential this system has for some areas, with mean currently
holding at 2.75".

With all that in mind, some type of flood message is warranted
given that rivers across northern il are running high, storm total
qpf ranging from 1-5" both from raw guidance and GEFS ensembles
(showing potential is there) will go out with a flash flood
watch through tonight, that may need to be honed in location.

Rivers will likely rise after getting a good bump already from
recent rains. While rates may not be at the levels for flash
flooding or all areas (and the potential for some initial
breaks), the potential is there, especially if these get over more
urban areas.

Kmd

Long term
329 am cdt
Friday through Wednesday...

not too many changes to the blended model guidance given the
active short term weather. The upper low will pull away Friday
night, with the heavier rains easing Friday afternoon and even
more so in the evening. Zonal flow over the weekend and northeast
low level flow with no significant waves suggests somewhat cooler
but generally dry weather. Cannot rule out some rain showers at
times as there is some weak energy in the zonal NW flow aloft.

Ridging aloft and SE flow suggests Monday will be dry with some
warming. Another upper low will cross the plains and arrive across
our region mid week, suggesting more inclement weather is
possible, depending on if the low moves through our area or if it
stays north. Beyond that time frame, there are hints of a heat
dome building in our near the region, but it is not a clean one
that may be muddled with clouds and occasional precip. Did nudge
temps up a tad closer to 925 mb climatology.

Kmd

Aviation
For the 12z tafs...

645 am... Forecast concerns remain periods of moderate heavy rain
and associated CIGS vis along with low potential for thunder.

Forecast trends appear on track as moderate rain is now developing
across eastern il. This activity will lift north across the
chicago area terminals this morning with periods of heavy rain
possible. Only medium confidence for how far northwest this
activity will extend into the rfd area. Not much thunder with this
activity and not expecting much but an isolated thunderstorm is
still possible so maintain vicinity mention for now but chances at
the terminals are low. Better chances for thunder will remain
across central il and mainly this afternoon evening. Timing any
lulls in the precip will remain challenging but there is still a
consistent signal for a lull later this afternoon into early this
evening with another area of moderate possibly heavy rain late
this evening into the overnight hours. Confidence for timing and
location steadily decrease further out into the forecast. Showers
will likely persist into Friday morning.

Visibilities have lowered into the 1-3sm range even in areas of
little rain currently. Its possible vis remains 1-2sm for much of
the day but confidence on prevailing vis is low. CIGS are mainly
ifr lifr and should slowly lift through ifr and possibly low MVFR
later this morning. There will likely be some variability with
cigs as precip intensity changes. CIGS will likely settle into
low MVFR this afternoon if the lull in precip develops and remain
low MVFR for the rest of the period... With ifr possible.

Easterly winds will steadily increase this morning into the
12-16kt range with gusts possibly as high as lower 20kts from
late this morning into this evening. Winds will slowly turn more
northeasterly overnight into Friday morning with speeds expected
to remain 10-15kts. Cms

Marine
416 am... Low pressure over ia this morning will move to central
il Friday morning and then to near lake erie on Saturday. This
will allow an easterly gradient to steadily increase today into
tonight with a period of 20-25kt easterly winds expected on the
southern portion of lake michigan. Some higher gusts to 30kts are
also possible... Likely on the far southern part of the lake. These
winds will turn more northeasterly on Friday and then diminish
Friday night as they shift northerly. Northerly winds will then
persist into Sunday when a cold front will move south across the
region. This front will maintain northerly winds... Which will
likely increase in speed behind the front. High pressure is then
expected to move across the great lakes Monday and then steadily
shift east Tuesday. Cms

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Flash flood watch... Ilz003-ilz004-ilz005-ilz006-ilz008-ilz010-
ilz011-ilz012-ilz013-ilz014-ilz019-ilz020-ilz021-ilz022
until 7 am Friday.

Beach hazards statement... Ilz006-ilz014... 7 pm Thursday to 4 am
Saturday.

In... Beach hazards statement... Inz001... 7 pm Thursday to 4 am
Saturday.

Lm... Small craft advisory... Lmz740-lmz741-lmz742-lmz743-lmz744... 7 pm
Thursday to 4 am Saturday.

Visit us at http: weather.Gov chicago (all lowercase)
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 7 mi43 min NE 11 G 13 61°F
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 16 mi83 min ENE 12 G 12 61°F 1010.2 hPa (+0.7)
FSTI2 32 mi143 min NE 7 63°F
OKSI2 36 mi143 min E 1.9 G 2.9 64°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 38 mi33 min E 13 G 13 65°F 65°F
45177 38 mi143 min 65°F1 ft
CNII2 40 mi23 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 64°F 62°F
JAKI2 46 mi143 min ENE 7 G 9.9 65°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 46 mi33 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 59°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL5 mi28 minENE 12 G 173.00 miFog/Mist65°F63°F93%1009.2 hPa
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI15 mi30 minE 124.00 miFog/Mist67°F63°F87%1010 hPa
Chicago / Wheeling, Pal-Waukee Airport, IL19 mi31 minNE 71.75 miRain Fog/Mist66°F64°F96%1009.5 hPa

Wind History from UGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NE8E6NE6NE7NE7NE5NE8E8NE7NE3N4NE4NE6NE6NE4CalmNE8E9E8E6E10NE10E12
G17
1 day agoN6NE4N6NE7NE8NE8NE8NE6N7N6NE5NE9N11
G15
N8N6N4N5N5N7N6N5N4NE5NE4
2 days agoSW9W7SW10
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N17
G26
3CalmN74N6N8N5N4NE5NE6N4N7NE4NE5N4E6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.