Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Gurnee, IL
May 16, 2024 8:03 PM CDT (01:03 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:26 AM Sunset 8:09 PM Moonrise 1:26 PM Moonset 2:33 AM |
LMZ740 Winthrop Harbor To Wilmette Harbor Il- Wilmette Harbor To Northerly Island Il- Northerly Island To Calumet Harbor Il- 301 Pm Cdt Thu May 16 2024
Tonight - South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest 5 to 10 kt. Scattered Thunderstorms and a chance of showers in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Friday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 kt becoming east in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 ft or less.
Friday night - East winds 5 to 10 kt becoming less than 10 kt. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 ft.
Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 kt. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ700
No data
No data
FXUS63 KLOT 162340 AFDLOT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 640 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered gusty thunderstorm threat continues into early evening. Severe weather threat remains low.
- Patchy to areas of dense fog may develop overnight, especially northwest of I-55.
- Summer-like warmth inland of Lake Michigan this weekend and primarily dry, though can't rule out an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm (10-20% chance or less) either day.
- Active Monday-Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms possible Monday and waves of thunderstorms on Tuesday through Tuesday evening, with an attendant threat for strong/severe storms and flooding.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Through Friday night:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon, though the coverage is expected to wane with sunset early this evening. While occasional cloud-to-ground lightning and brief heavy downpours can be expected with these storms, modest mid- level lapse rates and deep layer shear are expected curtail the severe weather threat. However, some instances of gusty winds (up to 45 mph) and small hail will continue to be possible with the strongest pulse-type storms. While the coverage of storms will drop significantly with sunset, a low chance (20-30%) for a few showers and storms will linger this evening. This is mainly the case across parts of northern/northwestern IL in close proximity to a weakening surface frontal boundary, and in advance of another approaching mid-level impulse from western IA. For this reason, I have held on to some low end POPs this evening, before drying things out overnight.
During the overnight hours, low-level moisture is expected to remain in place amidst decreasing cloud cover and light surface winds (under 5 mph). This setup looks favorable for overnight/early morning fog development. Conceptually, it's easy to envision pockets of dense fog (with visibility less than one quarter of a mile) developing by daybreak, particularly in areas where wet vegetation remains.
Any early Friday morning fog will then quickly erode during the mid-morning hours, giving way to partly cloudy afternoon skies.
High temperatures near 80 will make for a spectacular and warm May day. The exception will be along the Lake Michigan shoreline as a lake breeze surges inland and results in cooler weather during the afternoon hours. The day is largely looking to be precipitation free for a majority of the area, especially for areas along and north of I-80. However, farther south, another weak disturbance and surface boundary could again foster a few isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and storms. There is a 20-30% chance for some of these across areas well south of I-80 Friday afternoon into the early evening. Dry and quiet weather is then anticipated for Friday night.
KJB
Saturday through Thursday:
Unseasonably warm conditions are in store inland of Lake Michigan through the weekend. Progged 925 mb temps support highs in the lower to mid 80s both Saturday and Sunday, albeit with dew points only in the mid 50s to around 60F keeping humidity levels and heat indices in check. Onshore flow through the day on Saturday will keep locations near Lake Michigan in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Then on Sunday, a backdoor cold front slipping south and lake breeze enhancement point toward similar high temps near the lake.
Weak flow aloft and neutral to rising heights fitting a summer- like pattern will combine with very dry mid-level air (substantial dry air entrainment into incipient updrafts) to greatly limit the threat for any showers and thunderstorms. Only counter to the negating factors above will be the likelihood of little to no capping. Thus, can't rule out a widely isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. On Saturday, a convergence zone near and south of a Pontiac to Valparaiso line may provide just enough low level lift for kick off sparse convection where 15-20% PoPs are indicated. Turning to Sunday, the backdoor front and inland lake-enhanced push of the front may trigger a field of robust Cumulus. More prohibitively dry air aloft could preclude any actual convection, thus for now only have silent PoPs around 10%. That said, a few models are showing splats of QPF, so we may need to entertain some slight chance (~20%) PoPs in later updates.
A warm front will surge north of the area on Monday, putting us in the more humid warm sector amidst highs potentially well into the 80s. The magnitude of large scale forcing is somewhat questionable, though there's enough of a signal across the guidance for chance (30-50%) PoPs across northern Illinois Monday afternoon, increasing to 40-60% Monday evening and overnight.
Marginal deep layer shear looks to be a limiting factor for a more appreciable severe threat, though wouldn't be surprised at a level 1 of 5 (marginal risk) threat for parts of the area. In addition, PWATs up near or upwards of 1.5" (150-200%) could support localized ponding/flooding.
The most "interesting" day next week convectively speaking continues to be Tuesday. Another more substantial short-wave trough and associated cyclogenesis over the Plains (tracking northeastward) introduce the prospect for a more synoptically classic set-up for thunderstorms, severe weather, and flooding over the region. As is typical at this range of the forecast, there's plenty of uncertainty in the evolution of key features and mesoscale influences of multiple potential waves of convection. At this juncture, felt comfortable indicating "showers and thunderstorms likely" in the official forecast and recommend keeping an eye on this period as it draws closer. The systems cold front will likely sweep across the area sometime Tuesday night or early Wednesday and result in a quieter and more seasonable period through Thursday (current day 7).
Castro
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Key Aviation Messages:
- Isolated to widely scattered TSRA this evening, primarily for the Chicago metro TAFs.
- Light/variable winds overnight into Friday morning, with potential for fog/low stratus development especially west of Chicago.
- Winds remain light/variable Friday, though a lake breeze should bring east-northeast winds to KORD/KMDW/KGYY by afternoon.
Weak surface low pressure was over the upper Peninsula early this evening, with a weak cold front pushing slowly east across the Mississippi River into western IL. Ahead of the front, isolated to widely-scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring from near KMKE to southwest of KDKB and just west of KMQB. These showers/storms were moving to the east at around 15 mph, and will continue to push east into northeast IL this evening. Current radar trends suggest activity southwest of KDKB will pass south of KORD/KMDW through 02-03Z, with an eventual weakening/dissipating trend with sunset and the loss of diurnal instability. Have maintained a VCTS mention for the Chicago terminals, except for KGYY where storms may dissipate before approaching the field.
The cold front is forecast to wash out across the area tonight, with light/variable winds and little scouring of low-level moisture. This will likely set the stage for some patchy fog/stratus development after midnight, with IFR/LIFR conditions possible. Some guidance hits this pretty hard, though confidence is low enough to limit IFR mention to KDPA/KRFD for now, where there is a bit better model agreement with the foot print. Will continue to monitor for development into tonight for possible lower conditions needed at the major Chicago terminals.
Any fog/stratus should burn off by mid-morning Friday, with VFR conditions then expected. Winds will remain somewhat light and variable within a weak pressure gradient, which should support an east-northeast lake breeze to develop for KORD/KMDW/KGYY by early afternoon. Can't rule out some lingering stratus/fog over the lake which could attempt to push inland, but would think it would be limited to areas closer to the shore with inland locations remaining VFR.
Ratzer
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 640 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered gusty thunderstorm threat continues into early evening. Severe weather threat remains low.
- Patchy to areas of dense fog may develop overnight, especially northwest of I-55.
- Summer-like warmth inland of Lake Michigan this weekend and primarily dry, though can't rule out an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm (10-20% chance or less) either day.
- Active Monday-Tuesday: Scattered thunderstorms possible Monday and waves of thunderstorms on Tuesday through Tuesday evening, with an attendant threat for strong/severe storms and flooding.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 256 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Through Friday night:
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue this afternoon, though the coverage is expected to wane with sunset early this evening. While occasional cloud-to-ground lightning and brief heavy downpours can be expected with these storms, modest mid- level lapse rates and deep layer shear are expected curtail the severe weather threat. However, some instances of gusty winds (up to 45 mph) and small hail will continue to be possible with the strongest pulse-type storms. While the coverage of storms will drop significantly with sunset, a low chance (20-30%) for a few showers and storms will linger this evening. This is mainly the case across parts of northern/northwestern IL in close proximity to a weakening surface frontal boundary, and in advance of another approaching mid-level impulse from western IA. For this reason, I have held on to some low end POPs this evening, before drying things out overnight.
During the overnight hours, low-level moisture is expected to remain in place amidst decreasing cloud cover and light surface winds (under 5 mph). This setup looks favorable for overnight/early morning fog development. Conceptually, it's easy to envision pockets of dense fog (with visibility less than one quarter of a mile) developing by daybreak, particularly in areas where wet vegetation remains.
Any early Friday morning fog will then quickly erode during the mid-morning hours, giving way to partly cloudy afternoon skies.
High temperatures near 80 will make for a spectacular and warm May day. The exception will be along the Lake Michigan shoreline as a lake breeze surges inland and results in cooler weather during the afternoon hours. The day is largely looking to be precipitation free for a majority of the area, especially for areas along and north of I-80. However, farther south, another weak disturbance and surface boundary could again foster a few isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers and storms. There is a 20-30% chance for some of these across areas well south of I-80 Friday afternoon into the early evening. Dry and quiet weather is then anticipated for Friday night.
KJB
Saturday through Thursday:
Unseasonably warm conditions are in store inland of Lake Michigan through the weekend. Progged 925 mb temps support highs in the lower to mid 80s both Saturday and Sunday, albeit with dew points only in the mid 50s to around 60F keeping humidity levels and heat indices in check. Onshore flow through the day on Saturday will keep locations near Lake Michigan in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Then on Sunday, a backdoor cold front slipping south and lake breeze enhancement point toward similar high temps near the lake.
Weak flow aloft and neutral to rising heights fitting a summer- like pattern will combine with very dry mid-level air (substantial dry air entrainment into incipient updrafts) to greatly limit the threat for any showers and thunderstorms. Only counter to the negating factors above will be the likelihood of little to no capping. Thus, can't rule out a widely isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm. On Saturday, a convergence zone near and south of a Pontiac to Valparaiso line may provide just enough low level lift for kick off sparse convection where 15-20% PoPs are indicated. Turning to Sunday, the backdoor front and inland lake-enhanced push of the front may trigger a field of robust Cumulus. More prohibitively dry air aloft could preclude any actual convection, thus for now only have silent PoPs around 10%. That said, a few models are showing splats of QPF, so we may need to entertain some slight chance (~20%) PoPs in later updates.
A warm front will surge north of the area on Monday, putting us in the more humid warm sector amidst highs potentially well into the 80s. The magnitude of large scale forcing is somewhat questionable, though there's enough of a signal across the guidance for chance (30-50%) PoPs across northern Illinois Monday afternoon, increasing to 40-60% Monday evening and overnight.
Marginal deep layer shear looks to be a limiting factor for a more appreciable severe threat, though wouldn't be surprised at a level 1 of 5 (marginal risk) threat for parts of the area. In addition, PWATs up near or upwards of 1.5" (150-200%) could support localized ponding/flooding.
The most "interesting" day next week convectively speaking continues to be Tuesday. Another more substantial short-wave trough and associated cyclogenesis over the Plains (tracking northeastward) introduce the prospect for a more synoptically classic set-up for thunderstorms, severe weather, and flooding over the region. As is typical at this range of the forecast, there's plenty of uncertainty in the evolution of key features and mesoscale influences of multiple potential waves of convection. At this juncture, felt comfortable indicating "showers and thunderstorms likely" in the official forecast and recommend keeping an eye on this period as it draws closer. The systems cold front will likely sweep across the area sometime Tuesday night or early Wednesday and result in a quieter and more seasonable period through Thursday (current day 7).
Castro
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024
Key Aviation Messages:
- Isolated to widely scattered TSRA this evening, primarily for the Chicago metro TAFs.
- Light/variable winds overnight into Friday morning, with potential for fog/low stratus development especially west of Chicago.
- Winds remain light/variable Friday, though a lake breeze should bring east-northeast winds to KORD/KMDW/KGYY by afternoon.
Weak surface low pressure was over the upper Peninsula early this evening, with a weak cold front pushing slowly east across the Mississippi River into western IL. Ahead of the front, isolated to widely-scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring from near KMKE to southwest of KDKB and just west of KMQB. These showers/storms were moving to the east at around 15 mph, and will continue to push east into northeast IL this evening. Current radar trends suggest activity southwest of KDKB will pass south of KORD/KMDW through 02-03Z, with an eventual weakening/dissipating trend with sunset and the loss of diurnal instability. Have maintained a VCTS mention for the Chicago terminals, except for KGYY where storms may dissipate before approaching the field.
The cold front is forecast to wash out across the area tonight, with light/variable winds and little scouring of low-level moisture. This will likely set the stage for some patchy fog/stratus development after midnight, with IFR/LIFR conditions possible. Some guidance hits this pretty hard, though confidence is low enough to limit IFR mention to KDPA/KRFD for now, where there is a bit better model agreement with the foot print. Will continue to monitor for development into tonight for possible lower conditions needed at the major Chicago terminals.
Any fog/stratus should burn off by mid-morning Friday, with VFR conditions then expected. Winds will remain somewhat light and variable within a weak pressure gradient, which should support an east-northeast lake breeze to develop for KORD/KMDW/KGYY by early afternoon. Can't rule out some lingering stratus/fog over the lake which could attempt to push inland, but would think it would be limited to areas closer to the shore with inland locations remaining VFR.
Ratzer
LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
IL...None.
IN...None.
LM...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45186 | 8 mi | 34 min | 5.8G | 58°F | 55°F | 1 ft | ||
| 45187 | 11 mi | 34 min | 9.7G | 56°F | 54°F | 1 ft | ||
| KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI | 16 mi | 64 min | S 7G | 58°F | 29.72 | |||
| 45199 | 27 mi | 64 min | NNE 3.9 | 56°F | 47°F | 2 ft | 29.78 | |
| OKSI2 | 36 mi | 124 min | E 1.9G | 71°F | ||||
| CHII2 - Chicago, IL | 38 mi | 34 min | S 20G | 71°F | 67°F | |||
| CNII2 | 40 mi | 19 min | SSW 8.9G | 67°F | 57°F | |||
| MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI | 43 mi | 24 min | SSW 8.9G | 66°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KUGN WAUKEGAN NATIONAL,IL | 5 sm | 72 min | S 13 | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 61°F | 65% | 29.72 | |
| KENW KENOSHA RGNL,WI | 15 sm | 70 min | SSW 09 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 75°F | 61°F | 61% | 29.72 | |
| KPWK CHICAGO EXECUTIVE,IL | 19 sm | 71 min | SSW 07 | 10 sm | Clear | 72°F | 61°F | 69% | 29.75 |
Chicago, IL,
NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE