Tuesday, June27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hatfield, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:13AMSunset 8:32PM Tuesday June 27, 2017 6:25 AM EDT (10:25 UTC) Moonrise 9:20AMMoonset 11:22PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 348 Am Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers with isolated tstms this morning. Scattered showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Scattered showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers and tstms at night.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 348 Am Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves through the waters this evening. High pressure will then briefly follow for the middle of the week. Another frontal system approaches for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hatfield, MA
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location: 42.39, -72.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 270810
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
410 am edt Tue jun 27 2017

Synopsis
A strong jet stream will result in widespread afternoon showers
and thunderstorms across massachusetts, rhode island and
connecticut. A few of the storms may contain gusty winds and
small hail. A warming trend begins for the latter half of the
week with a return to summer heat and humidity Friday and
Saturday. A warm front may bring some showers and some
thunderstorms Thursday night, with more showers and
thunderstorms possible Friday through the weekend.&&

Near term until 6 pm this evening
4 am update...

*** a few strong thunderstorms possible this afternoon with gusty
winds and small hail ***
mostly clear skies during the predawn hours across southern new
england along with comfortable temperatures in the 50s. High clouds
streaming across western sections of ma ct in the southwest flow
aloft. Thus duration of sunshine later this morning will be greatest
across ri and eastern ma.

By this afternoon will be watching a potent short wave trough over
the eastern great lakes early this morning. Anomalous wind fields
and cold temps aloft associated with this feature will move across
southern new england this afternoon. The combination of synoptic
scale lift and modest deep layer moisture will likely result in
widespread showers and t-storms this afternoon.

Showers currently across southeast pa into nj showing signs of
intensifying as cloud tops cool in this region. This activity will
enter western ct ma between 8 am and 11 am. As short wave over
eastern great lakes approaches showers and t-storms will become more
widespread this afternoon. Cold temps aloft -18c to -20c at 500 mb
will result in steep mid level lapse rates. This combined with
anomalous wind fields aloft will likely result in at least a few
strong storms with a hail and wind threat. One limiting factor will
be dew pts only in the 50s which will result in sbcapes of less than
1000 j kg. Nevertheless, expecting a few strong storms this
afternoon with risk highest across interior ma and lowest risk over
southeast ma, where it may not even rain at all.

As for temps, highs likely in the 75-80 deg range. Not excessively
humid with dew pts only in the 50s today.

Regarding winds, modest low level southwest jet moves across the
area this afternoon with winds gusting up to 25-30 mph over ri and
southeast ma.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Tonight...

cyclonic flow continues along with cold temps aloft and 40-45 kt of
deep layer shear. This will support leftover showers and isolated t-
storms to persist into the evening (especially over ri and eastern
ma) before taping off after midnight. Patchy fog possible given
leftover low level moisture from earlier storms
Wednesday...

mid level flow is still cyclonic however flow becomes more wnw which
results in column drying out along with surface dew pts falling into
the 40s. Cyclonic flow aloft combined with cold temps will yield
plenty of diurnal clouds and the risk of an isolated shower t-storm.

However given lack of moisture areal coverage should be limited to
isolated. Otherwise a fairly nice day by late june standards with a
mix of Sun and clouds, highs 75-80 along with comfortable humidity
with dew pts in the upper 40s and low 50s!

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Highlights...

* thunderstorm chances increase Thursday night through Sunday
* heat and humidity return Friday, lasting into the weekend
pattern details...

00z guidance is in general agreement synoptically with some
difference in strength and timing for each wave late in the week.

Upper level trough axis will begin to push offshore on Wednesday
resulting in a quasi-zonal flow for the region beginning on
Thursday. The upper level pattern will become more amplified by the
weekend resulting in a broad trough over the great lakes with sub-
tropical ridge building over the weekend. Because of the ridging
over the east coast and the midwest trough, a cold front will be
come nearly stationary with very little eastward progress this
weekend. Ridging out west by Sunday will push towards the great
lakes by early next week, pushing the broad upper level trough over
the northeast.

Details...

Wednesday night into Thursday...

surface high pressure over the region Wednesday night will help keep
winds light and skies clear. Overnight lows will drop into the mid
to upper 50s with metro regions in the 60s.

Dry day to start on Thursday as high pressure will slide offshore.

The flow will turn more active with zonal flow aloft and a few weak
waves passing through. Impressive warming aloft as surface warm
front pushes through the region. This will push southern new england
in the warm sector resulting in increasingly warm and humid
temperatures.

A weak shortwave will move through the flow Thursday evening night.

With zonal pattern and both 850mb isotherms and winds becoming
parallel, appears that anything the fires across upstate ny will
ride through the flow moving into the area. In fact, guidance is
indicating a lingering MCS will move through the flow late in the
afternoon evening which could result in a few strong storms, esp
north of the pike. However, new convection could refire along its
southern edge given the strong low level jet and moisture over the
area. Trends will have to be watched.

Depending on the outcome of convection and cloud cover,
temperatures will remain in the low 80s. But it will feel warmer as
humidity will be on the rise. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue during the overnight hours keeping temps in the upper 60s.

Friday into Sunday...

unsettled weather pattern for this time period as southern new
england remains in the warm sector with heat and humidity. 850 mb
temps warming to 17-18c as well as southwesterly flow, will allow
for the summer heat to returns to the region. Appears that the
potential for 90 degrees is possible on Friday and Saturday as the
back door cold front continues to remain well north of the region.

Heat headlines may be needed as 70f dewpoints beginning to pool into
the area.

There remains a chance for showers and thunderstorms each day, but
difficult to place the exact timing and location of any strong
storms due to lack of surface boundary. Daytime heating will allow
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop on Friday.

Another shot for scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop on
Saturday, but western locations have the better shot thanks to
approaching pre-frontal trough. Lower confidence for eastern
locations as subtropical ridge will build in pushing a dry slot into
the area on Saturday. Cold front will approach on Sunday triggering
another round of showers and thunderstorms for southern new england.

Through this period, the potential for strong to severe weather
appears possible as the region remains in the warm sector. Plenty of
instability and moisture will continue to pool into the area with 0-
6 km shear values around 30 kts. Main risk will be strong gusty
winds as well as heavy downpours as pwats will be above 1.5 inches.

Still uncertainty with this portion of the forecast so stay tuned
for updates.

Monday...

cold front will slowly pass through the region on Monday, however is
appears that it may get hung up. Cyclonic flow aloft with southwest
flow in the mid-levels may trigger another round of showers for the
area. Low confidence on this portion of the forecast as there is
still a spread in the guidance.

Aviation 08z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

2 am update...

short term through Wednesday ... High confidence.

Thru 12z...

vfr and dry weather. Patchy MVFR possible briefly in areas of
fog toward sunrise. Showers and t-storms over southeast pa near
philly will enter western ct ma 12z-15z.

After 12z...

vfr becoming marginalVFR-MVFR in widespread showers and
embedded t-storms develop from southwest to northeast with
t-storms becoming more numerous this afternoon. A few of the
stronger storms may contain gusty winds and small hail across
the interior. Increasing pressure gradient will result in gusty
ssw winds even in the absence of t-storms.

Tonight...

marginalVFR-MVFR in scattered showers and t-storms during the
evening, especially across eastern ma and ri. Activity should
diminish after midnight.

Wednesday...

vfr and drier weather. Although can t rule out an isolated
shower t-storm during the afternoon. Modest wnw winds.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf. Showers and t-storms
likely this afternoon. A few of the stronger storms may contain
small hail and gusty winds.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. Showers and t-storms
overspread kbdl 12z-15z and continuing into the afternoon. A few
of the stronger storms may contain small hail and gusty winds.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Thursday... High confidence. MainlyVFR. Afternoon evening showers
possible in the interior with showers t-storms possible all sne thu
night. Gusty SW winds to 25-30 kt developing, especially coastal
plain.

Friday into Saturday... Moderate confidence. Patchy early morning fog
each day. Otherwise mainlyVFR, except local ifr in possible strong
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours
through the period.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... High confidence.

Today...

ssw winds increase up to 25 kt along the ri and ma coastline.

Strongest winds near shore and occurring from noon to 6 pm. Sca
posted for all the near shore waters. Showers and t-storms develop
this afternoon. A few strong storms possible especially north shore
of boston.

Tonight...

showers and thunderstorms most numerous during the evening hours. A
few strong storms possible with gusty winds and small hail. Ssw
winds may yield patchy fog especially during the evening. Improving
after midnight.

Wednesday...

winds become wnw at modest speeds. This results in good vsby and
mainly dry weather, other than an isolated shower or t-storm.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Thursday... Moderate confidence. Small craft advisories will likely
be needed. Increasing SW winds with gusts to 25+ kt likely,
especially over nearshore waters. Building seas may reach 6 to 8 ft
over southern waters Thu night.

Friday into Saturday... Moderate confidence. SW winds continue,
mainly 20-25 kt with building seas. Scattered thunderstorms, some
with reduced visibilities and strong gusty winds for each day.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon today to 8 pm edt this evening
for anz230>237-251.

Synopsis... Nocera dunten
near term... Nocera
short term... Nocera
long term... Dunten
aviation... Nocera dunten
marine... Nocera dunten


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 74 mi56 min 59°F 1015 hPa57°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 75 mi38 min SW 1.9 G 1.9 65°F 70°F1015.2 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 76 mi38 min N 2.9 G 2.9 62°F 67°F1015.7 hPa

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA13 mi88 minN 010.00 miOvercast55°F53°F94%1015.7 hPa
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA17 mi33 minN 010.00 miFair56°F55°F97%0 hPa
Orange Municipal Airport, MA21 mi34 minN 00.25 miFog55°F55°F100%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from CEF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4W5W4SW6W5NW3SW8
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmS3SW7S5SW6SW4W12W5W10S10S11W13
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CalmE5CalmN4CalmS4W4CalmNE3Calm
2 days agoSW7S7S9S6NE6W6W12W13W17
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NW3CalmCalmN6NW8NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3

Tide / Current Tables for Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Hartford
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Tue -- 01:09 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:44 AM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:51 PM EDT     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:18 PM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.200.31.11.92.42.62.42.11.71.20.70.3-0.1-0.20.31.11.82.22.221.61.31

Tide / Current Tables for South Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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South Hartford
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Tue -- 01:11 AM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:38 AM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:53 PM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:12 PM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.200.31.11.92.52.62.42.11.71.20.80.3-0.1-0.20.31.11.92.22.21.91.61.30.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.