Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hatfield, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:40PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 8:58 AM EDT (12:58 UTC) Moonrise 12:49PMMoonset 10:44PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 723 Am Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am edt this morning...
Today..Light and variable winds, becoming E around 5 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Widespread dense fog early this morning, then widespread fog late this morning. Vsby less than 1 nm this morning.
Tonight..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas subsiding to 1 ft or less.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas building to around 2 ft, then subsiding to 1 ft or less in the afternoon.
Fri night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 723 Am Edt Tue Sep 26 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure slowly retreats to the east through Wednesday as hurricane maria tracks northeast off the mid atlantic coast. Refer to statements form the national hurricane center for the latest on maria. A cold front moves through the region Wednesday night, followed by brief high pressure building in from the west through late week. Another cold front passes through Friday night, followed by high pressure settling in through Saturday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hatfield, MA
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location: 42.39, -72.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 261058
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
658 am edt Tue sep 26 2017

Synopsis
Unseasonably warm and humid conditions will continue through
Wednesday, but there will be areas of overnight and early
morning dense fog. A cold front moves through southern new
england Wednesday night and then offshore during Thursday.

Moisture from maria may enhance shower activity as the front
moves through the CAPE and islands. Much cooler and less humid
air will follow the front for the end of the week and weekend.

Hurricane maria will continue to bring dangerous surf and rip
current conditions to the ocean exposed south coast but pass
well southeast of new england by week's end.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
7 am update...

biggest near term issue is the fog, locally dense across eastern
ma and ri. Some patchy drizzle has also been observed. Plan to
let the dense fog advisory expire at 8 am, when we should start
to experience slow improvement. A concern is that the fog may
persist just off the coast in many spots and possibly could slip
back in with a sea breeze circulation. This will bear close
watching during today. The speed at which the fog burns off
could also have an effect on today's eventual high temperatures.

Have also increased pops off the SE coast to reflect showers
that continue to develop re-develop there. Water vapor imagery
would seem to imply that this activity may be in part fueled
with moisture emanating from hurricane maria located some
distance east of the carolinas. This too may need to be watched
in the event some of this activity were to encroach closer to
land (cape and islands).

Otherwise, have made just very minor adjustments in other
elements to reflect current observations and trends.

Prior discussion...

***areas of dense fog across eastern ma and ri will impact at
least the first half of the morning rush hour***
areas of dense fog will impact at least the first part of the
morning rush hour across eastern ma and ri. A dense fog advisory
is in effect through 8 am across this region where some patchy
drizzle is also possible. A few spot showers may also graze the
outer- CAPE and nantucket.

Otherwise, should see fog and low clouds begin to burn off by
mid to late morning. Timing a bit uncertain, but should see
skies become mostly sunny by mid afternoon in most locations.

The exception might be along the immediate coast and especially
the CAPE islands, where low clouds and fog patches may continue
to flirt with the area given weak onshore flow coupled with high
dewpoints.

High temps a bit tricky today and will depend upon how quickly
low clouds fog scour out, but overall should be a degree or two
cooler than yesterday. Still quite warm and humid for this time
of year with highs in the 80s away from the immediate coast and
dewpoints in the 60s. The lower ct river valley should be the
warm spot this afternoon and went with highs in the upper 80s.

Mainly dry weather today although can not rule out a spot shower
later this afternoon evening along the east slopes of the
berks.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
***areas of dense fog likely to redevelop tonight***
tonight...

low clouds and areas of fog, some of which will likely be
locally dense should redevelop tonight. This from a combination
of light winds high dewpoints and longer nights given its late
september. The next shift may need to consider another dense fog
advisory. Low temps again will mainly be in the 60 to 65 degree
range.

Wednesday...

model cross sections indicate that the low clouds and fog may
persist a bit longer than today, especially along the coastal
plain. Nonetheless, do expect to see at least some improvement
along with partial sunshine eventually developing. High temps
should once again rise into the 80s away from the immediate
coast and it will once again be humid. Not much forcing deep
moisture given upper level ridge still in control so generally
expect dry weather to prevail, but can not rule out a spot
shower or two Wednesday afternoon.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Highlights...

* a cold front will pass across southern new england Wednesday night
into Thursday morning with scattered showers
* maria will pass well SE of new england, but moisture from maria
may enhance showers over the CAPE and islands Thursday morning
* much cooler and less humid air will follow the cold front for
Thursday afternoon through the weekend
medium range models depict a propensity for the large scale mid
level circulation to favor a ridge extending across the ohio valley
but also a series of short wave troughs that temporarily erode the
north side of the ridge. This suggests that our region may be
subject to alternating warm and cool temperatures over the next
1 to 2 weeks.

One vigorous but progressive upper trough will bring a surface cold
front through southern new england Wednesday night and Thursday
morning. This alone should suffice to mention a chance for showers.

As the front passes across the CAPE and islands, a consensus of
medium range models continues to suggest that moisture from maria
becomes entrained into the front even though maria itself appears
destined to pass out to sea well southeast of new england. The
moisture entrainment may result in some heavy downpours somewhat
reminiscent of a pre setup. Model guidance continues to suggest
showalters near zero, k indices above 30, and precipitable waters
near 2 inches as the front passes through southeast new england. It
is possible, however, that the heavier showers develop just
offshore.

Behind the surface cold front, much cooler and less humid air moves
into the region. Although temperatures will be nearly 20 degrees
cooler, this actually just brings temperatures to near seasonable
levels for this time of year.

There is a second short wave trough and secondary cold front that
moves through late Friday night into Saturday morning. There may be
enough moisture and low level convergence to support at least widely
scattered showers during late Friday night Saturday morning.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ...

today... Moderate confidence. Widespread ifr to lifr conditions
exist early this morning in low clouds and areas of fog.

We expect gradual improvement through mid and late morning, but
a lot of uncertainty remains in the specific timing. Light
onshore flow driven by sea breeze circulations may result in
low clouds fog patches skirting the shore all day especially
across the CAPE and islands.

Tonight... Moderate confidence. Widespread ifr lifr conditions
expected to redevelop once again as the night wears on in low
clouds and areas of fog, some of which will be locally dense
again. This a result of a cooling boundary layer coupled with
high dewpoints and light winds.

Wednesday... Moderate confidence. Widespread ifr lifr conditions
should gradually improve in many locations later Wed am and into
the mid afternoon. However, low clouds and fog patches may be
stubborn along the coast especially the CAPE and islands.

Kbos taf... Moderate confidence in taf. Lifr conditions should
improve by mid to late morning, but we will have to watch for
areas of fog and low clouds lingering near the harbor through
the afternoon. A light onshore flow opens the door to the risk
of fog low clouds drifting back over the airfield.

Kbdl taf... Moderate confidence in taf. Low clouds and fog are
expected to give way toVFR conditions by this afternoon. The
exact timing of the improvement, however, is hard to pin
down.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Wednesday night Thursday morning... Moderate confidence. Areas of
MVFR ceilings visibilities in scattered showers except areas of ifr
ceilings visibility in showers and fog.

Thursday afternoon through Saturday... High confidence of mostlyVFR
conditions.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ...

today through Wednesday... High confidence. Long period southerly
swell from distant hurricane maria will result in 7 to 11 foot
seas through Wednesday across our southern waters. Small craft
advisories from hazardous seas will continue. In addition, areas
of dense fog will impact the waters and result in poor
visibility for mariners at times, especially during the
overnight into the mid morning hours.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

confidence... High
swells from maria will likely affect the southern coastal waters
through at least Friday with hazardous seas. There may be a period
of north winds late Thursday into early Friday with 25 to 30 knot
gusts, especially across the eastern and southeastern zones. Showers
and fog may lower visibilities to less than a mile across some of
the coastal waters Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Visibility
is not expected to be an issue Thursday night through Saturday.

Tides coastal flooding
Long period southerly swells will continue to propagate
northward from distant hurricane maria across the southern
coastal waters. This will continue to create high surf and
dangerous rip currents along ocean exposed beaches of the south
coast, CAPE and islands. The high surf advisory remains in
effect through Wednesday in this region, but will likely need to
be extended through the end of the work week given the
continuation of long period swell working northward from maria.

Climate
Highs are expected to be a degree or two lower than yesterday,
while records for today are in the 89 to 95 degree range. Therefore,
not expecting any record highs to be set this afternoon,
although it will be very warm and humid away from the immediate
coast.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Dense fog advisory until 8 am edt this morning for maz005>007-
013>024.

High surf advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for maz020-022>024.

Ri... Dense fog advisory until 8 am edt this morning for riz001>008.

High surf advisory until 6 pm edt Wednesday for riz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt
Wednesday for anz233-234.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 am edt
Thursday for anz235-237-254>256.

Synopsis... Frank thompson
near term... Frank thompson
short term... Frank
long term... Thompson
aviation... Frank thompson
marine... Frank thompson
tides coastal flooding... Thompson
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 74 mi89 min 72°F 1017 hPa71°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 75 mi41 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 70°F 69°F1017.3 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 76 mi41 min N 2.9 G 4.1 67°F 69°F1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA13 mi63 minN 00.25 miFog65°F64°F98%1017.8 hPa
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA17 mi66 minN 00.25 miFog65°F64°F100%1017.4 hPa
Orange Municipal Airport, MA21 mi67 minN 00.15 miFog63°F63°F100%1017.8 hPa

Wind History from CEF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN44CalmCalmNE3SE3E3SE3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS5CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmNW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmN4CalmCalmNE4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN10N8N7N9N9
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Tide / Current Tables for Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Hartford
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Tue -- 03:25 AM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:46 AM EDT     1.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:31 PM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:11 PM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.10.80.60.40.50.91.31.71.81.71.51.21.10.90.80.60.711.51.92.12.11.91.6

Tide / Current Tables for South Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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South Hartford
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Tue -- 03:27 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:40 AM EDT     1.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:33 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:05 PM EDT     2.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:46 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.80.50.30.40.81.31.71.81.61.41.210.80.60.50.50.91.51.92.121.81.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.