Monday, February19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hatfield, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 5:29PM Monday February 19, 2018 2:52 PM EST (19:52 UTC) Moonrise 9:47AMMoonset 10:27PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 221 Pm Est Mon Feb 19 2018
This afternoon..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain late.
Tonight..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain with drizzle likely in the evening, then patchy drizzle after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm after midnight.
Tue..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Patchy drizzle in the morning. Patchy fog. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. Vsby less than 1 nm.
Wed night..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Areas of fog in the evening. Chance of showers after midnight. Vsby less than 1 nm in the evening.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Thu night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
ANZ300 221 Pm Est Mon Feb 19 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure strengthens over the western atlantic today as a warm front slowly approaches from the south. The front is expected to lift into the region late tonight, possibly lifting through the tri state area on Tuesday. A cold front approaches Wednesday and moves south of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. High pressure builds across new england on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hatfield, MA
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location: 42.39, -72.6     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 191829
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
129 pm est Mon feb 19 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will bring showers late today and tonight. This
will set the stage for near record high temperatures Tuesday,
and especially Wednesday, so long as enough sunshine is
realized. Lower temperatures work into the region Thursday into
this weekend, but still expecting them to remain above normal.

Greatest risk for unsettled weather will be sometime Friday
into next weekend.

Near term through tonight
Increasing clouds the rest of this afternoon. Persistent south
winds led to some stratocumulus clouds across portions of ri
and southeast ma. These clouds pretty much developed in place,
but will likely persist until the clouds moving in from the west
arrive. Temperatures should rise much more slowly the rest of
today.

Regional radar showing an area of showers moving across eastern
ny state. These showers should first cross the berkshires about
2 pm, reaching the worcester hills between 3-5 pm, and greater
boston between 5-7 pm. This is not a solid area of rain, so
coverage is still expected to be hit-and-miss to some extent
until later this evening. Risk for showers should gradually
diminish after midnight.

A warm front should move north of our region overnight. The
persistent south winds should mean nearly steady to slowly
rising temperatures through the night, too. Patchy fog is
expected, which could become locally dense toward the south
coast with the flow right off the ocean.

Short term Tuesday through Tuesday night
Tuesday...

a few showers and patchy fog may linger along south coastal
areas early, then should push offshore by around midday.

However, clouds will likely linger across most areas through the
day.

The big question will be whether the clouds will dissipate
during the midday and afternoon hours across the interior. If
the clouds do break more than currently forecast, max
temperatures will likely be higher than current forecast, too.

Tuesday night...

anomalous southwest flow will continue across southern new
england. Low temperatures expected to be about 10 degrees above
the normal high temperature for this time of year. Still
thinking some low clouds and fog are possible, especially near
the CAPE islands with high dewpoint air moving over the
relatively cool ocean.

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
Highlights...

* Wednesday: near all time february record highs might be
approached if enough sunshine is realized
* cooler Thu Fri into next weekend but temps still above normal
* unsettled weather possible sometime Friday into next weekend
with ptype favoring rain although a bit of ice snow can not be
ruled out
details...

Wednesday...

anomalous upper level ridge of 594 decameters off the southeast
coast will pump an incredibly mild airmass into our region for
late february standards. This will result in 850t rising to
between +12c and +14c. Given southwest flow... High temperatures
will climb well into the 60s to lower 70s inland from the
cooling marine influence of the southeast new england coast. If
this ends up being the case... Record highs would be broken and
near all time february record high temperatures would be
challenged. The one fly in the ointment is if we are jammed up
in a bunch of low clouds. NAM soundings suggests this as a
possibility... But often southwest flow is able to allow for
these to break up. However... If the low clouds remain in place
high temps would be cooler than currently forecast. Something
later shifts will have to monitor closely.

Wednesday night and Thursday...

while the southeast upper level ridge will remain in place,
1040+ mb surface high pressure system will approach from the
west and force a cold front south of the region Wed night thu.

The result will be significantly cooler temperatures Thursday
with high temperatures mainly in the 40s. At this time... The
bulk of the period looks dry but we can not rule out a period of
mainly ana frontal showers which are depicted in some of the
gefs eps ensemble members.

Friday through Sunday... .

Low confidence forecast particularly with timing, but the
potential exists for a couple rounds of unsettled weather
Friday into next weekend. Certainly not expecting the entire
period to be a washout... Just impossible to try to time
individual shortwaves this far out. The southeast ridge remains
pretty strong... So ptype favors mainly rain. However... If a
couple canadian high pressure systems are slower to retreat it
could be marginally cold enough to support a bit of snow ice.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence in trends.

Moderate confidence in timing.

Through 00z... MainlyVFR. Some MVFR CIGS vsbys should develop
from west to east in scattered showers after 19z.

Tonight... Areas of MVFR CIGS vsbys in scattered -shra and
patchy fog. Local ifr possible toward the south coast, including
the CAPE and islands. S winds gust up to 20 kt across CAPE cod
and the islands.

Tuesday... Mix of conditions. MVFR vsbys MVFR-ifr CIGS in
scattered -shra and patchy fog early, improving toVFR.

However, MVFR to local ifr conditions may linger along the s
coast through early afternoon.

Tuesday night... Areas MVFR ifr conditions should redevelop in
low clouds and patchy fog. Breezy. Slight chance shra toward the
s coast.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra.

Wednesday night through Thursday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR
possible. Breezy. Chance shra.

Thursday night:VFR. Breezy.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
ra, slight chance fzra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

Wind gusts not quite reaching 25 kt early this afternoon. So
will give some thought to canceling some of the small craft
advisories early. Need to evaluate the sea state over the next
hour or so, first.

Rough seas still expected to develop across the ocean-exposed
waters with the arrival of southerly swells. Will need to
continue the small craft advisories across those waters. Scattered
showers and patchy fog will bring reduced visibility tonight,
then should improve on the eastern waters Tuesday. Reduced
visibility lingers Tuesday into Tuesday night on the southern
waters in patchy fog and isolated showers.

Outlook Wednesday through Friday ... Moderate to high
Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Chance of rain showers.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Chance of rain showers.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Chance of rain.

Climate
Record highest observed temperature for february... (since
records began)
boston... ... ... 73 (2 24 2017)
hartford... ... .73 (2 24 1985)
providence... ..72 (2 24 1985)
worcester... ... 69 (2 24 2017)
record high temperatures...

february... ... .2 20... ... 2 21
boston... ... ... 68 (1930) 63 (1906)
hartford... ... .69 (1930) 63 (1930)
providence... ..69 (1930) 63 (1930)
worcester... ... 65 (1930) 59 (1930)
record warmest min temperature...

february... ... .2 20... ... 2 21
boston... ... ... 46 (1930) 45 (1994)
hartford... ... .50 (1981) 49 (1981)
providence... ..48 (1981) 50 (1981)
worcester... ... 47 (1981) 43 (2002)

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm est this afternoon for
anz230>234-236-251.

Small craft advisory until 5 pm est Tuesday for anz235-237-250-
254.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 5 pm est
Tuesday for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Belk frank
near term... Belk
short term... Belk
long term... Frank
aviation... Belk frank
marine... Belk frank
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 74 mi82 min 43°F 1029 hPa31°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 75 mi52 min SSW 8.9 G 15 50°F 37°F1029.5 hPa (-3.3)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 76 mi52 min S 5.1 G 7 46°F 38°F1030 hPa (-3.4)

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA13 mi1.9 hrsSSW 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy46°F30°F55%1030 hPa
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA17 mi59 minS 12 G 1910.00 miOvercast45°F33°F63%1029.2 hPa
Orange Municipal Airport, MA21 mi60 minS 810.00 miOvercast43°F30°F60%1029.1 hPa

Wind History from CEF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11W11W15W9NW3NW3NW6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS10S12
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1 day agoSW10S9S13
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S9--S4S3CalmN3N3N4N3N4N5CalmCalmN5NW8NW8NW11
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2 days agoNW21NW19
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NW9N4NW6N3N6N5N6W5W4CalmS4SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Hartford
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Mon -- 12:18 AM EST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:55 AM EST     1.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:44 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:10 PM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:27 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.100.71.41.81.91.81.61.20.90.50.20-00.41.11.71.91.81.61.30.90.60.3

Tide / Current Tables for South Hartford, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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South Hartford
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Mon -- 12:20 AM EST     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:49 AM EST     1.92 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:46 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:04 PM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:28 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:27 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.10.10.71.41.81.91.81.61.20.90.50.20-00.41.21.71.91.81.61.30.90.60.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.