Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Northampton, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:19PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 12:31 AM EST (05:31 UTC) Moonrise 12:02PMMoonset 10:17PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 936 Pm Est Tue Dec 11 2018
Overnight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft. Scattered flurries.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..N winds around 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of flurries.
Thu night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Sat..SE winds around 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of rain.
Sun..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 936 Pm Est Tue Dec 11 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front from the great lakes moves through tonight. High pressure then builds in from the north for Wednesday into Wednesday night. A weak upper level disturbance passes on Thursday. A frontal system and associated low pressure will then impact the area over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northampton, MA
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location: 42.39, -72.84     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 120317
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1017 pm est Tue dec 11 2018

Synopsis
Mainly dry and cold weather prevails into Thursday, except for some
scattered ocean effect snow showers Wednesday, mainly across
the outer-cape. Mild temperatures arrive Friday and continue
into early next week with the best chance for rain Friday night
into Saturday in association with low pressure.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Tricky forecast for the overnight. Water vapor satellite imagery
and high resolution model guidance have pinpointed a vigorous
mid level shortwave across the western half of southern new
england late this evening. Many reports of flurries light snow
across portions of ri and SE ma.

This shortwave will continue to move east overnight. As it does,
still expecting winds to turn north between now and 1 am est.

Latest surface streamline analysis showed this was underway
already. Thus, expecting snow showers to become more prevalent
across the outer CAPE late tonight into Wednesday. Will need to
monitor wind direction closely. A more westward shift of only
20 degrees would put most of the ocean-effect showers over the
coastal waters, and not the CAPE and nantucket. Timing will also
be critical. It's possible some of the stronger snow showers
will still be around for the Wednesday morning commute on the
cape and nantucket. Untreated surfaces may be slippery, and
visibility may quickly drop in spots.

Temperatures were trending lower this evening, so made some
tweaks there, too. Abundant clouds with the mid level shortwave,
so expecting status quo for a few hours, with a late drop toward
daybreak when clearing develops across the interior.

Previous discussion...

tricky forecast overnight with inverted trough swinging across
the region. The biggest uncertainty is does this produce a brief
period of scattered snow showers near the south coasts of ri se
ma and onto the CAPE islands. The model guidance is somewhat
split on this potential... But the 18z model runs seem a bit more
aggressive in bringing a brief period of scattered snow showers.

This especially true near the fall river to new bedford areas
and onto the CAPE islands. The main time of concern is between
10 pm and 4 am. Any accumulations would generally be a dusting
to less than an inch... But some slippery spots would be possible
given cold ground temperatures. This is separate from the
scattered ocean effect snow showers expected on portions of the
cape... Especially east of hyannis on Wednesday.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
A shortwave will move southeast across the region overnight,
providing enough instability for ocean effect snow along the
outer CAPE tomorrow morning. Models support ocean effect snow
tomorrow along the outer cape. As winds turn out of the nnw by
12z tomorrow, combining with the instability and moisture aloft,
ocean effect seems likely after 12z.

Looking at model soundings, it looks like the temperature
difference between an inversion aloft and the sea surface temps
will be between 15c and 20c, which will support strong snow
showers during the time period. Snowfall accumulations look to
be between 1 to 2 inches along the outer cape, but less than 1
inch is possible into falmouth and southern plymouth county.

Elsewhere across the region will be mostly sunny and dry.

Snow will likely last throughout the day, however, some models
are showing pockets of dry air moving in aloft after 18z, which
may cut off the snow showers earlier than expected.

A strong high pressure builds into the northeast Wednesday
night. With mostly clear skies and light northerly winds,
overnight temperatures will be more than 10 degrees below
normal. Northern massachusetts could see lows in the single
digits.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Highlights...

* dry but cold Thursday
* milder Friday with a period rain focused Fri night into sat
* low confidence forecast early next week
details...

Thursday...

high pressure overhead will result in mostly sunny skies but another
cold day. After a very cold start... Light winds and the low
december Sun angle will only allow afternoon high temperatures to
recover into the lower to middle 30s.

Thursday night...

dry weather should prevail... But we may see some mid level
cloudiness overspread parts of the region overnight. This a result
of high pressure moving off the coast and warm advection aloft.

Still expect to see low temps bottom out mainly in the upper teens
to lower 20s with rather light winds.

Friday into early next week...

a pattern change to milder weather expected as an active pacific jet
flushes out the cold weather we have experienced over much of the
last month. Given the pattern transition and active sub-tropical
jet... The forecast going forward remains low confidence into early
next week.

We do think that warm advection ahead of southern stream energy will
result in a period of rain... Focused Friday night into Saturday.

A low risk for a brief period of freezing rain at the onset can
not be ruled out... But generally expecting a rain event.

The other big issue is the track timing of the surface low. This
will all come down to the location strength of both the northern and
southern stream energy. If the southern stream energy gets pulled
northward, precipitation chances would continue into Sunday and or
Monday... But if it gets shunted south our region will mainly be dry.

If we do see precipitation Sun into mon... Ptype would favor rain
given the overall milder regime. However... A low risk for some
wintry precipitation can not be completely ruled out. The storm
would have to track near the benchmark and would also require enough
marginally cold air to work down from the north.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... High confidence.

MainlyVFR except some marginal MVFR-ifr conditions later
tonight into Wed across the CAPE islands along with scattered
ocean effect snow showers wed. In addition, a period of MVFR
conditions along with a brief period of scattered snow showers
is possible roughly between 03z and 09z near the south coasts of
ri ma. Nnw wind gusts of 20 knots expected Wed with up to 25 kt
possible across portions of the CAPE ack.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

Thursday through Thursday night:VFR.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
ra.

Friday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Ra.

Saturday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Ra likely.

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy
with areas gusts to 30 kt. Chance ra.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with local
gusts to 30 kt. Chance ra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... High confidence.

Rather tranquil boating conditions through this evening with
good visibility. Northerly flow increases across the waters
late tonight into Wednesday. Rough seas expected to develop
across the outer coastal waters as a result. A small craft
advisory has been issued for many of our open waters. In
addition to the winds, ocean-effect snow showers may reduce
visibility at times to less than 3 nm late tonight into
Wednesday across the eastern coastal waters.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Friday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain.

Saturday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain likely.

Saturday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of
rain.

Sunday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 am to 4 pm est Wednesday for
anz231>234-251.

Small craft advisory from 7 am Wednesday to 1 pm est Thursday
for anz250-254-255.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Wednesday to 7 am est Thursday
for anz256.

Synopsis... Frank correia
near term... Belk frank
short term... Correia
long term... Frank
aviation... Frank correia
marine... Frank correia


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 63 mi62 min 28°F 1015 hPa20°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 77 mi32 min N 8.9 G 12 34°F 46°F1013.3 hPa (-1.0)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 81 mi38 min N 2.9 G 4.1 32°F 47°F1012.2 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA17 mi39 minNW 610.00 miOvercast28°F18°F66%1013.7 hPa
Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA21 mi36 minNNW 310.00 miOvercast27°F19°F73%1013.4 hPa
Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA24 mi38 minN 09.00 miOvercast25°F18°F75%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from BAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm--CalmNW3N3NW4CalmN3CalmNW3SE4--S64S3CalmN3NE3CalmN3CalmCalmNW6
1 day agoN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE94N6N10N11
G17
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2 days agoSW4SE4CalmCalmS3S4S3S3S3S5S4S5SW9S9S12S10S7S5S6SE3S5CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Hartford, Connecticut
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Hartford
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Wed -- 01:32 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:00 AM EST     1.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:59 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:45 PM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:20 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:00 PM EST     1.88 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:18 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.10.20.61.11.51.71.61.41.210.90.70.50.50.81.41.71.91.81.61.31.10.8

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:14 AM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:56 AM EST     3.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:06 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:26 PM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:22 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 08:12 PM EST     4.78 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:21 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.5-0.10.11.12.43.23.73.83.52.71.81.410.60.61.52.83.94.54.84.63.72.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.