Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 6:38AM||Sunset 6:46PM||Sunday September 23, 2018 9:58 PM EDT (01:58 UTC)||Moonrise 6:30PM||Moonset 4:55AM||Illumination 99%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Northampton, MAHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Boston, MA  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
|Fxus61 kbox 232259|
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
659 pm edt Sun sep 23 2018
Dry and unseasonably cool weather will continue into Monday evening.
An approaching warm front will bring a soaking heavy rain to the
region Tuesday into Tuesday evening. Warmer and muggier weather
returns Wednesday with scattered showers thunderstorms. Low
confidence forecast late this week into next weekend... But overall
feel mainly dry and seasonable weather will dominate.
Near term until 6 am Monday morning
655 pm update...
an abundance of mid high level cloudiness remains in place
across southern new england. Guidance continues to under
estimate the northward extend of this mid high deck. Light winds
for a good portion of the night should still allow low temps to
fall into the 40s to the lower 50s.
However... Toward daybreak a backdoor cold front drops southward
across the region as strong canadian high pressure builds S e.
The light and variable winds become N then gusty from the ne
by daybreak along the coast. NE wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph
expected along the eastern ma coast by daybreak.
Model soundings continue to show a shallow layer of moisture around
900-950 mb developing by daybreak Monday morning across NE ma,
allowing for another increase in clouds.
Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
will certainly feel like a fall day as an area of strong canadian
high pressure pushes SE and becomes centered over me nova scotia.
This sets us up for a brisk east wind, with gusts 20 to 25 mph.
Anticipating some gusts 25-30 mph along eastern ma during the
morning. Shallow layer of moisture remains at 900-950 mb, onshore
winds will likely help keep that moisture in place prompting a
considerable amount of lower clouds to linger over our area. However
since that moisture layer is so shallow, not expecting showers to
accompany it. Should have some breaks of sunshine. Then late in the
day, models show an increase in upper level moisture so could see
some cirrus moving in.
It will quite cool as 925 mb temps fall to 6-8c across much of the
area, even some 4c air at 925 across the far northern tier of ma.
Highs will range from the mid upper 50s across central and NE ma to
lower 60s lower ct valley and ri SE ma.
the high pressure center tracks eastward into the canadian
maritimes, with warm air advection bringing increasing moisture from
sw to ne, mainly after midnight. Will see cloudy skies as the night
wears on. Chances for rain increase across central and western
portions of the area during the early morning hours on Tuesday.
Long term Tuesday through Sunday
* widespread soaking heavy rain Tue into Tue evening
* heavy showers may re-develop near the south coast late Tue night
* warmer & muggier Wed wed eve with scattered showers t-storms
* low confidence thu-sun... But favoring mainly dry & seasonable
Tuesday and Tuesday night...
the model guidance continues to advertise a widespread soaking heavy
rainfall Tue into Tue evening. A warm front will be approaching
from the south coupled with a southerly low level jet pwat plume
that increases to 2-3 standard deviations above normal. Given a 40
to 50 knot low level jet with a warm front acting as a focus... The
stage is set for a soaking heavy rainfall. Overall... This looks
like a widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall event with perhaps some
localized higher amounts around 2.50 inches. Appears the greatest
chance for the higher amounts will be focused across the
interior... Where the best forcing resides. High temps Tue will
mainly be in the 60s... But some locations across the interior high
terrain may not break 60.
Overall... Feel this heavy rain will be more of a typical nuisance
poor drainage street flooding event. We still can not rule out the
low risk for more significant flooding if convective elements get
involved. It is something to monitor but nothing warrants us to
issue any type of flood watch at this time.
Otherwise, if the warm front lifts north of the region Tue night
which is always tricky to predict... Precipitation should become more
scattered in nature and there may even be an embedded t-storm or
two. We also should note... May have to watch some for some tropical
moisture and downpours re-developing late near the south coast in
association with a low level jet tropical moisture plume getting
Wednesday and Wednesday night...
model guidance indicates that southern new england will be in the
warm sector. This will result in a warmer and muggier day. High
temps should reach well into the 70s and it is possible that some
locales break 80 if enough solar insolation occurs. While Wednesday
will not be a complete washout... There will be the potential for
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Perhaps in the morning across
southeast new england with plume of tropical moisture. Another good
chance may come in the late Wed afternoon evening... When the
greatest height falls forcing arrive. Decent jet dynamics... So if
somehow we have enough instability can not rule out the low risk for
a few strong to severe thunderstorms across the interior. Main
concern would be risk for locally strong to damaging wind gusts.
Thursday through next weekend...
low confidence... But appears much of the time from Thu into next
weekend will feature dry seasonable weather. Low risk for some
showers Thu Fri as the GFS has a wave of low pressure near the south
coast... But most of the other guidance builds high pressure into the
region. Perhaps a weak front bring a few showers sometime sun
too... But overall feel this time period will feature mainly dry
Aviation 00z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels... |
low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short term through Monday night ...
tonight... High confidence.VFR for most of the night... But MVFR
cigs may approach NE ma towards 12z with backdoor cold front.
Light to calm winds becoming N NE and gusty on the coast toward
daybreak. Gusts around 25 kts NE ma thru bos prior to 12z.
Monday... Moderate confidence. Areas of low endVFR-MVFR cigs
developing from NE to SW during Monday morning in a scattered to
broken deck of clouds. NE winds in the morning with gusts 20 to
25 kts especially eastern ma and ri. Winds becoming E with wind
gusts diminishing during the afternoon.
Monday night... Moderate confidence. MainlyVFR, with MVFR CIGS vsbys
possible SW ma northern ct towards 12z tue.
Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.
Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.
Outlook Tuesday through Friday ...
Tuesday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Windy with gusts to
30 kt. Ra, patchy br.
Tuesday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Windy with gusts
to 30 kt. Shra likely, isolated tsra, patchy br.
Wednesday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance shra, isolated tsra.
Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy.
Chance shra, isolated tsra.
Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight
Forecaster confidence levels...
low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Short term through Monday night ... High confidence.
This evening... Light winds and seas with high pressure over the
Overnight and Monday... Increasing NE winds develop later tonight
into Monday morning behind a backdoor cold front. Gusts to 25-30 kt
likely across eastern ma waters late tonight into Monday morning
with these stronger wind gusts shifting to the southern waters
during Mon afternoon. SCA headlines posted for late tonight into
tomorrow for winds seas.
Monday night... SCA headlines continue for E winds seas across the
outer coastal waters.
Outlook Tuesday through Friday ...
Tuesday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 30 kt.
Areas of rough seas. Rain, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to
Tuesday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 8 ft. Rain showers
likely, isolated thunderstorms, patchy fog. Areas of visibility
1 to 3 nm.
Wednesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers,
Wednesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain
showers, isolated thunderstorms.
Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers.
Thursday night through Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.
Box watches warnings advisories
Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Monday for
Small craft advisory from 4 am to 2 pm edt Monday for anz230.
Small craft advisory from 6 am to 4 pm edt Monday for anz231.
Small craft advisory from 8 am Monday to 6 pm edt Tuesday for
Small craft advisory from 4 am Monday to 6 pm edt Tuesday for
Small craft advisory from 6 am Monday to 6 pm edt Tuesday for
Synopsis... Nmb frank
near term... Frank nmb
short term... Nmb
long term... Frank
aviation... Nmb frank
marine... Nmb frank
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
|Stations||Dist||Age||Wind||Air Temp||Water Temp||Waves||Pressure||DewPt|
|ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY||63 mi||89 min||55°F||1025 hPa||54°F|
|NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT||77 mi||41 min||60°F||74°F||1025.6 hPa|
|NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT||81 mi||41 min||58°F||70°F||1025.2 hPa|
Wind History for New Haven, CT(wind in knots) EDIT (on/off)  Help
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports
|Westfield, Barnes Municipal Airport, MA||17 mi||66 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||50°F||50°F||100%||1025.9 hPa|
|Chicopee Falls / Westover Air Force Base, MA||21 mi||2 hrs||NE 3||10.00 mi||Mostly Cloudy||51°F||49°F||93%||1025.4 hPa|
|Pittsfield Municipal Airport, MA||24 mi||65 min||N 0||10.00 mi||Fair||50°F||46°F||89%||1025.3 hPa|
Wind History from BAF (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||S||S||S||S||S||SW||S||W|
|2 days ago||S||SE||SE||S||Calm||S||S||S||S||S||S||S||S||S||S|
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (21,6,7,8)(on/off)  Help
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