Sunday, August20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Farms, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 8:25PM Sunday August 20, 2017 8:59 PM EDT (00:59 UTC) Moonrise 4:18AMMoonset 6:50PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 338 Pm Edt Sun Aug 20 2017
Tonight..South winds around 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds around 10 knots. Partly Sunny. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy with showers and Thunderstorms likely early in the evening...then mostly clear in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon...then becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the evening. Sunny early in the morning becoming mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201708210815;;687137 FZUS63 KDTX 201938 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 338 PM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.20 inches, will expand across the eastern seaboard today into Monday. Low pressure, 29.80 inches, is forecast to develop over the Upper Midwest on Monday, then track into the northern Great Lakes Monday night. This low is forecast to deepen as it lifts into southern Quebec on Tuesday and will drag a strong cold front across the Great Lakes region. Strong high pressure will then build across the region from the west mid week. LCZ460-210815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Farms, MI
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location: 42.4, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 202252
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
652 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017

Aviation
Dry low level will maintainVFR conditions into part of tonight, but
increasing moisture on ssw winds will bring some potential of MVFR
fog late tonight into Monday morning. Any CIGS should remainVFR and
aoa 10kft as several batches of convective debris advect into the
vicinity over the next 24 hours.

For dtw... There looks to be some fog potential overnight with help
from a moisture push off lake erie (and a general increase in low
level moisture from prevalent southerly flow). Otherwise, CIGS will
remainVFR. There is a very low chance of a shower or storm in the
vicinity late tonight into Monday due to this increase in moisture.

While the best chance looks to be late tomorrow afternoon, the low
likelihood still doesn't seem to justify any mention.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 338 pm edt Sun aug 20 2017
discussion...

rather typical late summer conditions ongoing across southeast
michigan, as the area remains under the influence of weak but deep
anti-cyclonic flow. To the west, convective debris clouds from last
night's action is beginning of overspread the region, while
thinning. Additional high clouds are expected to saunter overhead
through the evening hours.

The flow regime over the northern CONUS will undergo a modest
transition Monday and Tuesday as a strong cyclonic wave carves
southeast across central canada into the upper great lakes region.

Along the periphery of the height falls, additional convectively
induced waves will influence the specifics across the western great
lakes region.

One such wave, a leftover MCV over eastern iowa is evident in the
latest GOES imagery sequence. This dynamic feature will likely be
the focus for additional convective development along it's
trajectory this evening into the overnight hours as it intercepts
richer near surface moisture. The increased moisture will advance in
an elevated fashion across lower michigan overnight as southwesterly
flow increases in advance of the mcv. As this moisture advection
process unfolds, elevated convection may continue to bubble eastward
across far southern lower michigan after midnight. Moreover, the
reservoir of moisture aloft will emerge at the surface through
diurnal mixing processes Monday and dewpoints will jump quickly.

Farther upstream over the central plains, convection continue along
the edge of the mid-level cap. The nwp suite is challenged by this
ongoing activity. The best depiction thus far is by a few members of
the 20.00z ncar ensemble. Given the persistence of redevelopment,
expect new widespread coverage to develop near the current activity
near omaha. This offers greater separation between the convective
waves and opens a window for continued advection of unstable air
into southern lower michigan early Monday. The additional
instability could facilitate new diurnal convective development
during the late afternoon hours. Regardless, a fair amount of cloud
cover is anticipated through the course of the day.

As the larger scale wave approaches Monday night, additional
widespread convection is expected upstream across the mid and upper
mississippi valley. The advancing cold front will collect the
activity and advance east across michigan. The trend in the guidance
suite is to be quicker with the system, with the best chances for
showers and storms being overnight Monday night and during the first
half of Tuesday. The timing will likely limit severe weather
potential.

A closed upper low over eastern canada midweek will keep northwest
flow in place over the region as an upper level trough slowly
translates eastward across the eastern us through the end of the
week. Surface high pressure will slowly build into the great lakes
region midweek and remain in place through the end of the week.

These features will lead to a prolonged period of dry, cooler
conditions across southeast michigan through the end of the week.

Temperatures will fall slightly below average Wednesday through
Friday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s and lows in the upper
40s to mid 50s. Ridging will then build into the region next weekend
keeping dry conditions in place and bringing a slight warming trend
with highs approaching 80 by Saturday.

Marine...

light southwest flow to continue over the marine areas through
tomorrow, with winds increasing on Tuesday ahead of a strong cold
front. This front coupled with increasing moisture will bring a
chance for showers and thunderstorms, with showers and thunderstorms
likely by Tuesday morning. Northwest winds behind the front will be
strong Tuesday evening, topping out around 30 knots over the open
waters lake huron before slowing decreasing on Wednesday.

Hydrology...

a strong cold front moving through on Tuesday will likely triggers
showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. Basin averages
look to reside in the quarter inch to three quarter inch range, with
locally higher amounts possible in stronger thunderstorm activity.

At this time, no flooding is expected.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Dg
discussion... Mann jd
marine... ... .Sf
hydrology... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 5 mi60 min S 6 G 8.9 80°F 1018.3 hPa (+0.4)
45147 - Lake St Clair 11 mi60 min S 5.8 G 5.8 76°F 74°F1017.4 hPa
AGCM4 25 mi42 min 74°F 1018.2 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 43 mi40 min E 8.9 G 9.9 77°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 47 mi42 min 78°F 1017.7 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 49 mi42 min S 5.1 G 6 78°F 1017.8 hPa59°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Last
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi67 minSSW 510.00 miFair79°F61°F54%1017.7 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI15 mi62 minS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F64°F73%1017.9 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI18 mi65 minSSW 610.00 miFair82°F59°F48%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmS5S7SW9SW5SW5S8S10S9S6S8S5
1 day agoW9W10
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W8W6W5SW3SW4SW4W5W4W4W5W6W7W7NW8W9NW8NW10NW10NW8NW11
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2 days agoSW8SW8W12W10W12W10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.